The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in the indicators of natural population growth. Until recently, there were hardly any very significant differences in this respect between them. Recently, however, this group of countries also began to experience a fairly strong differentiation, and now it can also be subdivided into three subgroups.
The first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation still persists, for which at least average fertility and natural growth rates are characteristic, ensuring expanded reproduction of the population. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the "formula" of reproduction (fertility - mortality = natural growth) in 2005 remained at the level of 14.1% - 8.2% = 5.2%. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 1%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3–0.5%. At this rate of growth, a doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years.
The second subgroup should include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, for which the total fertility rate back in the mid-1990s. decreased to 1.5. Some of these countries still have a minimal excess of births over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with "zero" population growth. This is, for example, Sweden.
Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with natural population decline (depopulation).
Table 40
The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990–2000. increased from 3 to 15. In 2005, there were 15 of them, but the composition changed somewhat (Table 40).
It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact, the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was caused by a complex of interrelated causes. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide, decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to by demographers as aging from below. Further, an increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of an increasing level of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of persons of older (“non-reproducing”) ages in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the current crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medico-social, moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average size families in the countries of the second and third subgroups have recently decreased to 2.2–3 people. Yes, and it became much less durable - with the increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without registration of marriage, sharp rise the number of children born out of wedlock.
Back in the early 1960s. divorce rate per 1000 marriages in countries overseas Europe ranged from 100 to 200, but already in the late 1990s. it increased to 200–300. Even more frightening is the data on children born out of wedlock, the proportion of which has increased 5-10 times during the same period. In the UK and France, for example, the proportion of children born out of wedlock exceeds 30%. It is even more in Denmark - 40%. But Sweden, Norway and Iceland have been and remain the "absolute champions" in this respect, with an indicator above 50%.
All of these causes and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in table 40. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), the fact that in the 1990s. they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from command-planned to market economy... The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.
As for Russia, in the XX century. with the demographic situation, one might say, she was unlucky. The first phase of the demographic transition ended there by the beginning of the twentieth century, but a real demographic explosion did not follow. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the countryside and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60s-80s. XX century the demographic situation in the country as a whole has stabilized, and back in 1989 the "formula" of the natural movement of the population looked like this: 19.6% - 10.6% = 9%. However, in the 1990s. a new one erupted, and a particularly strong one, demographic crisis(Table 41).
From the data in table 41 it follows that in the 70s - early 80s. XX century the demographic situation in Russia was relatively favorable. So, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then, the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s. the demographic situation has deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, there has been an absolute population decline in Russia. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 1990s. the fertility of women in the country dropped to 1.17 children, while more than two are needed for sustainable population growth. The number of marriages per 1000 inhabitants in 2000 decreased to 6.3 (in 1955 - 12.1), and the number of divorces increased to 4.3 (in 1955 - 0.8). According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decline in the first decades of the 21st century, when a small generation born in the 1990s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation born in the 50s will leave the working age. ... XX century As a result, by 2015 the number of inhabitants in Russia may decrease (according to the average version) to 134 million people.
Table 41
In conclusion, it should be noted that, apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of demographic optimum, which, if interpreted uniformly for different regions and countries, may not be the same quantitatively.
Economically developed countries
The economically developed countries of the world have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in the indicators of natural population growth (see Table 1). Until recently, there were hardly any very significant differences in this respect between them. Recently, however, this group of countries also began to experience a fairly strong differentiation, and now this group can also be subdivided into three subgroups.
Table 1. European countries with negative natural population growth
The first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation still persists, for which at least average fertility and natural growth rates are characteristic, ensuring expanded reproduction of the population. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction formula (fertility - mortality = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15 ‰ - 9 ‰ = 6 ‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. At such a rate of growth, a doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland - in 250 years).
The second subgroup should include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate dropped to 1.5 in the mid-90s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of fertility over mortality. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.
Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with natural population decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. They are all in Europe.
It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact, the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was caused by a complex of interrelated causes. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Further, an increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of an increasing level of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of persons of older ("non-reproducing") age in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the current crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medico-social, moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2-3 people. And it has become much less durable - with the increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without registration of marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
If at the beginning of the 60s the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in the countries of foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then at the end of the 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious data on children born out of wedlock, whose share has increased 5-10 times during the same time. In the UK and France, for example, the proportion of children born out of wedlock exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But Sweden, Norway and Iceland have been and remain the "absolute champions" in this respect with over 50%.
All of these causes and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in Table 2. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.), it was affected by the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 90s.
The essence demographic problem consists in the accelerated growth of the world's population. It can be traced by analyzing the periods of time through which the population of the Earth reached every billion inhabitants.
Obviously, in the second half of the XX century. the time to reach each next billion has sharply decreased, which characterizes the extremely rapid growth of the world's population.
The question arises: "In what main reason such a rapid population growth? " It lies in the peculiarities of the demographic situation in the countries of the world, and above all in the developing countries. The observed in them low labor productivity in agriculture(it is main industry economy), communal ownership of land (the more people in a community, the more its land allotment), as well as religious beliefs and traditions entail an increase in the birth rate, and therefore - large families.
Rice. 1. Periods of time through which the population of the Earth reached every billion inhabitants
However, if in the past high fertility, so to speak, was "balanced" by high mortality (due to hunger, disease and epidemics) and population growth as a result occurred moderately, but after the Second World War, the achievements of modern civilization that came to developing countries entailed directly opposite consequences and led to extremely rapid population growth due to high natural increase, which is called the "population explosion".
Rice. 2. Causes of the global demographic problem
The essence of the changes that have occurred is reflected in the diagram (Fig. 1). The diagram in Fig. 2 and tab. 1 allow us to conclude that the main reason for the "population explosion" is the lack of effective birth control.
Table 1. Demographic indicators for different types countries
However, demographic problems are more complex and multifaceted, and there are significant geographic differences. In the developing countries of the world, a type of reproduction is widespread, characterized by a relatively high birth rate, mortality and natural growth (type I), and in developed countries - the opposite type, manifested in lower levels of demographic processes (type II).
In other words, there are two problems: if developing countries are experiencing a "population explosion", then a number of countries of the world are characterized by a "demographic crisis", that is, a decrease in the population due to the excess of deaths over births, which entails a natural decline in population.
At the end of the XX century. the number of such countries has reached two dozen: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, the Baltic countries, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Germany, etc. The decline in fertility in these countries is mainly due to their socio-economic development.
Let us compare the demographic situation in each of the groups of countries for individual elements and identify different geographic aspects of demographic problems.
Table 2. Demographic situation in developed and developing countries
Conclusion: every country in the world has its own demographic problems of a different nature and degree of complexity, determined by differences in the levels of economic, social and cultural development, the religious composition of the population and the history of the state.
The consequences of demographic problems can be as follows:
- extremely rapid growth of the world's population;
- high natural population growth in developing countries, far exceeding their capabilities in solving problems of socio-economic development, thereby increasing their backwardness;
- increasing unevenness in the distribution of the world's population (9/10 of the world's population lives in developing countries).
Rice. 3. Consequences of demographic problems
Consequently, demographic problems entail the intensification of other global problems, including food, geoecological and many others.
Population explosion: problem statement
The modern stage of human development is characterized by an accelerated population growth.
Ten thousand years ago there were about 10 million people on Earth, by the beginning of our era there were 200 million, by 1650 - 500 million, by the 19th century. - 1 billion. In 1900, the population was 1 billion 660 million. In 1950, despite losses in two world wars, the population increased to 2.5 billion, and then one hundred
la to increase annually by 70-100 million (Fig. 17). In 1993, 5.5 billion people live on Earth. On October 12, 1999, at 0:02 am, a boy was born in one of the maternity hospitals in Sarajevo, who became the 6 billionth inhabitant of the planet. On February 26, 2006, the world's population reached another record figure of 6.5 billion people, and their number is increasing by 2% per year.
Rice. 17. Growth in the world's population
Today, about 6.4 billion people live on Earth, and the population is growing by 2% per year. It is expected that by 2050 there will be 8.9 billion earthlings.
The growth of the world's population in the middle of the XX century. acquired a rapid pace and was called the demographic explosion. Population explosion- a sharp increase in the rate of growth of the population of the Earth, associated with changes in socio-economic or general environmental conditions of life.
Currently, about 180 people are born every minute on the planet, 21 people are born and 19 people die every second. Thus, the population of the Earth is increasing by 2 people per second, by 250 thousand daily. Over the year, the increase is approximately 80 million, and it is almost all accounted for by developing countries. In our time, doubling
the number of people on the planet occurs in 35 years, and the production of poverty is growing at 2.3% per year and doubling in 30 years.
It should be noted that the population problem is not directly related to the number of inhabitants on our planet. The earth can feed more people. The problem lies in the uneven distribution of people on the planet's surface.
There are human settlements in almost all corners of the Earth, although in some regions, such as Antarctica, there are no conditions for permanent residence... In other rugged areas, small groups of people live with special lifestyles. Most of the world's population is concentrated in a relatively small area. In the early 1990s. almost half of the 5.4 billion inhabitants of the planet occupied only 5% of its area. Conversely, only 5% of its population lived on half of the Earth's area. About 30% of the world's population is concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, including India, Indonesia and Pakistan, 25% - in East Asia, including China and Japan. Many people also live in eastern North America and Europe.
Residents of predominantly agricultural countries are more evenly distributed. In India, where 73% of the population lives in rural areas, its average density in 1990 was 270 people per sq km. But here, too, there are significant fluctuations. For example, the population density in the middle of the Gangetic Plain is three times higher than the national average.
In Africa and South America, the average population density by country is much lower. The most populous country in Africa is Nigeria (130 people per sq km). Among the South American countries, only in Ecuador, this figure exceeds 30 people per 1 km 2. Significant areas of the Earth still remain almost uninhabited. In Australia, there are 2.2 people per 1 km 2, in Mongolia - only 1.4.
Despite the seemingly huge number of people on the planet - about 6 billion 400 million, hypothetically, all of them can be located on an area of 6400 km 2, if 1 m 2 is allocated for each inhabitant. This area corresponds to the area of Lake Issyk-Kul (Republic of Kyrgyzstan) or three areas of Lake Geneva in Switzerland. The rest of the world would be free. For comparison, note that the area of such a European dwarf state as Luxembourg is 2,600 km 2, the area of the Spanish Canary Islands is 7,200 km 2.
The constantly increasing population of the world requires more and more food and energy, mineral resources, which causes increasing pressure on the biosphere of the planet.
Analysis of the current situation in the distribution of the population on the globe made it possible to identify some patterns.
- Population growth is extremely uneven. It is maximum in developing countries and minimum in developed countries of Europe and America.
- The rapid population growth violates its age ratio: the percentage of the disabled population - children, adolescents, the elderly - is increasing. The share of children under 15 years old in most developing countries reaches 50%, and people over 65 years old - ranges from 10 to 15%.
- The population density is increasing. The accelerated process of urbanization is accompanied by the concentration of the population in large cities. In 1925, a little more than 1/5 of the world's population lived in cities, now about half. It is predicted that by 2025, 2/3 of the world's inhabitants will be urbanites.
North America and Europe are distinguished by a very large concentration of cities. The high standard of living of the urban population in these regions is in stark contrast to the living conditions in Asia (excluding Japan), which is dominated by rural people engaged in arable farming and livestock raising. Smaller habitats are located in Southeast Australia, the southeast of South America, the west coast of North America, and parts of the North American Midwest.
In these areas, the population density is also very uneven. In some small states, it is extremely high. The area of Hong Kong, for example, is only 1045 km 2, and the population density is about 5600 people. by 1 km 2. Among the larger states, the highest density was recorded in 1991 in Bangladesh (about 800 people per sq km). As a rule, the high population density is observed in industrialized countries. So, in the Netherlands in 1990 it was 440 people. per 1 km 2, in Japan - 330 people. by 1 km 2.
Population growth on the planet
The population of the Earth is systematically increasing and the rate of its growth is increasing over the years. For example, the doubling of the population (in million people) from 20 to 40 occurred in 2000 years. From 80 to 180 - in 1000 years, from 600 to 1200 - in 150 years, and from 2500 to 5000 - in just 40 years. In the period from 1965 to 1970, the growth rate of the world's population reached an unprecedented peak in history - 2.1% per year.
By 1990, the total population of the planet reached 5, 2005 - 6, in 2010 - more than 6.5 billion people. According to forecasts, by 2025 about 10 billion people will live on Earth. More than half of the world's population lives in Asia - about 58, in Europe - over 17, in Africa - over 10, in North America - about 9, South America - about 6, in Australia and Oceania - 0.5%.
Numerous attempts to reduce the birth rate have been unsuccessful. Currently, there is a population explosion in the countries of Africa, Asia and South America. An excessively rapid increase in population requires a solution to the global problem of reducing the growth rate of the Earth's population, since people need a place for resettlement, for the production of material goods and food.
In Russia, in the last decade, the population decreased annually and only by 2011 stabilized (mortality is approximately equal to the birth rate), but this decade will again decrease due to demographic characteristics.
Lack of food. Despite the explosive nature of the world's population, human food resources are shrinking. Thus, the world production of grain, meat and fish and a number of other products per capita has been continuously decreasing since 1985. The forecasts came true and in 2010 the prices for wheat and rice almost doubled. In the poorest countries, this leads to widespread hunger. Currently, according to official figures, one in every five people on the planet is hungry or malnourished.
By 2030, the world's population may increase by 3.7 billion people, which will require doubling food production, and increasing industrial output and energy production by 3 times.
Energy consumption per unit of agricultural production (fertilizers, water, electricity, fuel for agricultural units, etc.) has increased almost 15 times over the past two decades, while the yield has increased on average by only 35-40%. The growth rate of grain yield has slowed down since 1990. The efficiency of fertilizer use in the world, according to experts, is close to the limit.
In addition, the total area occupied by cereals has stabilized at the level of the mid-1980s. In recent years, fish stocks have declined sharply. So, from 1950 to 1989, the world catch increased from 19 to 89 million tons, but later and until now (2010), no significant increase was observed. An increase in the size of the fishing fleet does not lead to an increase in the catch.
Thus, at the beginning of the XXI century. humankind is faced with the challenges of increasing ecosystem degradation, exacerbating poverty and increasing inequality between industrialized and developing nations.
Population problem
The dynamics of the population of any country depends on such basic demographic indicators as fertility, mortality and migration.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union (1990s), there has been a significant drop in the population in the CIS countries, but compared with the previous decade (with the exception of Turkmenistan). The total population of the CIS countries at the beginning of 2001 was 280.7 million people, which is 1.6 million, or 0.6%, less than at the beginning of 1991.
Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, where 73% of all CIS residents live, since the early 1990s. have entered a strip of depopulation, the rate of which is accelerating. Depopulation coefficient (the ratio of the number of deaths to the number of births) in 1992-1993 amounted to 1.1 in Belarus, 1.14 in Russia, 1.18 in Ukraine, and in 2000 it grew to 1.44, 1.77 and 1.96, respectively, or by 31-66%.
By the beginning of 2001, the population of Belarus had decreased to 9.99 million people. against 10.4 million at the beginning of 1994 (the year of the maximum number), or 4.1%; Russia - up to 144.8 million people. against 148.7 million at the beginning of 1992, i.e. by 3.9 million, or 2.6%; Ukraine - up to 49 million against 52.2 million at the beginning of 1993, i.e. the decrease was 3.2 million, or 6.1% (Table 3). The total loss of the population of these three states during the years of reforms reached 7.5 million people, which exceeds the number of residents of such states as Denmark, Slovakia, Georgia, Israel, Tajikistan.
Most significantly - by 2 million people. (11.3%) the population of Kazakhstan decreased: from 16.8 million at the beginning of 1991 to 14.8 million at the beginning of 2001. The negative result was caused, along with a decrease in the birth rate, by a large and stable scale of migration of the population from Kazakhstan to others. CIS countries (mainly Russian-speaking citizens to Russia and Germans to Germany).
Table 3. The number of resident population of the CIS countries
|
At the beginning of the year (thousand people) |
Including |
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|
1996 in% to 1991 |
2001 in% to 1996 |
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|
Belarus |
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|
Moldavia |
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|
Azerbaijan |
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|
Kazakhstan |
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|
Kyrgyzstan |
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|
Tajikistan |
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|
Turkmenistan |
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|
Uzbekistan |
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In the rest of the Central Asian states, in Azerbaijan and Armenia, the demographic potential in the 1990s continued to grow. The most significant increase was observed in the population of Turkmenistan - by 30.4%, Uzbekistan - by 20.2%, Tajikistan - by 15.7%. However, in the last five years (1996-2000), these countries have seen a decline in population growth rates, which is due to a decrease in natural growth in them. Only in Kyrgyzstan, population growth in the second half of the 90s. XX century increased and amounted to 6.1% against 4.6% in 1991-1995, which is associated with a sharp decrease in recent years in migration of the population outside the republic.
According to the age structure, the CIS countries are divided into three groups (Table 4). The first is Belarus, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine, where the oldest population, i.e. the share of people aged 65 and over is the largest - 12.5-13.8%, and the share of children does not exceed 20.4%. The average life expectancy is shrinking. If in the 70s. XX century in the USSR it was 73 years, now men live about 59 years, women - 72 years, i.e. the average life expectancy is 65 years. In the United States, life expectancy increased by 5 years to 78 years; in Japan this figure is 79 years.
The second group includes the states of Central Asia and Azerbaijan, which have the youngest age structure: the share of children in them ranges from 32% in Azerbaijan to 42% in Tajikistan, and of older people - from 3.9 to 5.5%. The third group of countries - Armenia, Kazakhstan and Moldova - occupy an intermediate position: children in them are 24-29%, elderly people - 7-9%.
Table 4. Age structure of the population of the CIS countries
|
Population at the beginning of 2001, million people |
Share of the age group,% |
Per 1000 population aged 15-64, people |
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|
65 and older |
65 and older |
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|
Belarus |
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|
Kazakhstan** |
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|
Moldavia |
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|
Azerbaijan |
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|
Kyrgyzstan |
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|
Tajikistan*** |
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|
Turkmenistan |
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|
Uzbekistan |
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* Population at the beginning of 2000
** Age data are adjusted based on the preliminary results of the 1999 census *** 1998
All CIS countries are characterized by a further increase in the number of older persons and a decrease in the proportion of children. At the beginning of 2000, the proportion of the population over 65 years old in Belarus amounted to 13.3% against 11% in 1991, in Russia - 12.5% (10%), Ukraine - 13.8% (12%). As a result, the demographic burden of persons over 65 on the working-age population (aged 15 to 65) has increased in these countries in comparison with the beginning of the 90s. XX century by 20-30%, and the demographic burden of children decreased by 10-15%.
Humanity is going through the era of a global demographic revolution. Until the turn of 2000, the population of our planet grew at an increasing rate. Then it seemed to many that the demographic explosion, overpopulation and the inevitable depletion of resources and reserves of nature would lead humanity to disaster. However, in 2000, when the world's population reached 6 billion, the population growth rate reached its maximum of 87 million per year, or 240 thousand people per day, the growth rate began to decrease.
Demographic transition
There are 4 stages demographic development based on the types of reproduction.
First stage: high birth and death rates (positive natural increase)
Second stage: high fertility, decreased mortality (positive natural increase)
Third stage: decrease in fertility and low mortality (decrease in the rate of expanded reproduction, transition to simple reproduction - natural increase = 0)
Stage four: low fertility and mortality (natural increase = 0 or negative)
Demographic transition- this is a transition from the second stage to the third, when there is a decrease in population growth rates down to 0,
and in the future, a decrease in the population is possible.
World population
1800 - 1 billion
1930 - 2 billion
1960 - 3 billion
1974 - 4 billion
1987 - 5 billion
1999 - 6 billion
2011 - 7billion
2050 - 9.5 billion (average forecast)
There are different projections for the world's population by 2050. Average 9.5 billion - UN. The worst is 10, the best is 8.
One of the consequences of the population explosion in developing countries - their extremely young population... Half of the inhabitants of Russia are under 37 years old, Europe - 39. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, half of the population is children and adolescents under the age of 16 years. The average age of the entire population in Africa is 19 years old, and in Asia it is 28 years old. Thus, both now and in the foreseeable future, adolescents and young people, socially immature and for the most part uneducated, will be a huge part of the population of developing countries. They have no clear prospects and are easily manipulated, prone to religious or political fanaticism.
In developed countries, the population has stabilized on one billion. They went through the transition just 50 years earlier than the developing countries.
The dynamics of a modern developed society undoubtedly generates a stressful environment. Initially, this happens at the level an individual when the bonds that lead to the education and stability of the family break up. One of the consequences of this was a sharp reducing the number of children per woman noted in developed countries. So, in Spain this number is 1.07, in Italy - 1.15, and in Russia - 1.3, while 2.15 children are needed on average to maintain simple reproduction of the population. Thus, all the richest and most economically developed countries, which made the demographic transition 30-50 years earlier, turned out to be insolvent in their main function - population reproduction. This is facilitated by both the increased time spent on education and the liberal value system., which arose in the modern world and is so uncontrollably propagandized by some means mass media, all those phenomena that are commonly called the moral crisis of society. If this trend continues, then the main population of developed countries is doomed to extinction and displacement by emigrants from more fertile ethnic groups.
This is one of the strongest signals that demographics are sending us. In general, if in developed countries we note a sharp drop in population growth, in which the population does not renew and is rapidly aging, then in the developing world the opposite picture is still observed - there a youth-dominated population is growing rapidly.This the change age composition is the main result of the demographic revolution, which has now led to the maximum stratification of the world by age composition of the population.
With the world's population stabilized, development can no longer be linked to numerical growth. Development may stop, and then a period of decline will begin and the ideas of the "Decline of Europe" will receive a new embodiment. But something else is also possible - qualitative development, in which the quality of the population and the quality of a person will become the meaning and goal of development. Moreover, it is Europe, some of whose countries pioneered the demographic transition, is now paving the way for the reorganization of its economic and political space. The example of Europe indicates the processes that other countries and humanity can expect in the future.
Causes of low fertility in developed countries:
ü growth of the level and role of education, long-term education
ü changes in the value system
ü high level of urbanization
ü emancipation of women
Problems- population aging:
ü big the tax burden for the able-bodied population (decide by raising the retirement age)
ü as a result, pension problems
ü cultural problem - the extinction of cultures, nations
ü extinction of villages (empty lands)
ü growth in the number and importance of migrants, their replacement of the labor force
ü In the future, there may be a shortage of highly qualified labor force
Solutions- fertility stimulation:
ü social support for large families ( fringe benefits, payments, maternal capital)
ü payment for maternity leave
ü providing free medical care and education
ü propaganda
ü (for some countries) an increase in living standards and social guarantees
ü (in countries where religion plays an important role) ban on abortion
ü (now) from the 19th century - migrations from Europe to America, and p / s in p / t
The reasons for the high birth rate in developing countries:
ü children are a means of social guarantees (in developed ones, these are pensions)
ü agricultural sector - labor-intensive production (children - labor force)
ü contraceptives are not widespread
ü traditions and mentality
ü there are no prerequisites for reducing the birth rate
Low urbanization (for backward countries)
No active emancipation of women
Low level of education
Problems:
ü overpopulation
ü low standard of living
ü low level of human resources development
Solutions- fertility reduction:
ü improving the standard of living
ü raising the level of education
ü improvement of health care and distribution of contraceptives
ü increasing the marriageable age
ü direct bans, additional taxes, deprivation of social benefits (China)
ü increasing the status of women, involvement in production
Demographic situation in Russia - problems:
ü quite low fertility and high mortality rate (mortality is higher than in Europe)
ü low standard of living
ü low level of medical support
ü low life expectancy
ü imbalance (in the Caucasus, high fertility, to the north - low)
ü demographic pit after WW2 and 90s
1. T.R. Malthus as the founder of the science of population growth.
Thomas Malthus's years of life: 1766-1834 He was an English priest, then professor in the department of modern history and political economy at the College of the East India Company. His main book - "The Experience of the Law of Population or a Statement of the Past and Present Effect of this Law on the Welfare of the Human Race" - was written in 1789.
Malthus argued that food production in the world is growing in arithmetic progression (1,2,3,4,5 ...), while the population of the Earth is growing in geometric progression (1,2,4,8,16 ...). This will inevitably lead to a situation where most people face the threat of starvation. Only the most powerful and cruel can survive in such conditions. These ideas inspired Darwin and Wallace to create the theory of the struggle for survival in biology. So that people can avoid poverty and starvation, epidemics and wars for a piece of bread, Malthus proposed the following measures to solve the problem of overpopulation:
· abstaining from early marriages,
· warning too big stature families,
· refusal to marry low-income people,
· adherence to strict moral standards before marriage,
· abandoning social assistance programs for the poor.
However, he opposed birth control, believing that if married couples were able to easily limit the number of children, the primary incentive for socio-economic progress would be lost: people would begin to lead an idle lifestyle and society would stagnate. Subsequently, the idea of birth control as a means of combating a disproportionate increase in the population began to play a major role in the concept of the so-called neo-Malthusianism.
In the social hierarchy, people are arranged according to the principle of the fittest, that is, the elite are the fittest people, the rabble are the least fit people.
2. Demography.
Demography is the science of the size, composition and change of a population. In recent years, the population of Russia has been declining at a catastrophic rate. Because of this, schools, kindergartens and nurseries began to close. Most people blame it economic crisis but the example of Western countries shows that economic prosperity does not always lead to an increase in fertility. Population growth rates are some of the most dramatic indicators:
· 1 million years ago, the population of the whole world was only about 125,000 people,
· 300,000 years ago - 1 million people
· by Christmas - 285 million people,
· in 1930 - 2 billion people,
· in 1960 - 3 billion people,
· by the beginning of 2009, the world's population was 6.6 billion people.
The main reasons for the population boom are: The population explosion began in Europe in the 19th century. In the Middle Ages, Europe had high birth and death rates, many children were born, but they did not know how to treat them and a large proportion of children died from epidemics and hunger, so the population growth was minimal. For example, Peter 1 had 14 children from two wives, of which only 3 survived. In modern times, the birth rate remained high, but medical care and well-being improved. This was the cause of the population explosion during the industrialization period.
The reasons for the decline in fertility in modern developed countries: In the 20th century. the birth rate and death rate in Russia, Europe and North America decreased, so the population growth became minimal again, the population of some countries even began to decline. This is especially dangerous against the background of the population explosion in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This demographic situation inevitably leads to migration or even an invasion of the population from Asia, Africa and Latin America to Europe, North America and Russia. The first harbinger of such an invasion was Islamic global terrorism, the war in Chechnya, American operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are forecasts about the possibility of the Third World War of the West against Islamic states. Russia is on the edge of a population explosion, with countries with high population growth rates on Russia's southern borders - China and Islamic countries... In China, they are trying to combat excessive population growth with taxes on the second child, which has led to the emergence of "clandestine", undocumented children. In Russia, the population explosion was in the 19th century. - the beginning of the 20th century. But the population growth resulting from this explosion was destroyed during the terrible historical cataclysms that befell the Russian people in the 20th century. In the Soviet Union at the end of the 50s, there were demographic problems that became the consequences of World War II, since very few children were born during the war, and a lot of men died during the war. Today many Russian people migrate from neighboring countries to Russia. In ancient times, an example of migration was the great migration of peoples - Huns, Avars, Goths, Suevi, Vandals, Burgundians, Franks, Angles, Saxons, Lombards, Slavs in the 4-7 centuries AD. In the 7-9 centuries A.D. there was a migration of Arabs, Normans, Proto-Bulgarians, Magyars. Migration from Europe to the United States was particularly intense in the 19th and 20th centuries.
3. Other reasons for the decline and increase in the birth rate in the global world.
More boys are born than girls, but men die at an earlier age than women. The small number of adolescents leads to a shortage of labor. Urban dwellers have fewer children than rural dwellers, since for rural dwellers, many children mean a lot of hands on the farm. Highly educated women have few children, since they are forced to spend time in their childbearing period primarily on education and careers. Before deciding to have a child, parents make a calculation of the possible costs and their income. In a large family, parents are opposed to children receiving a high level of education. Many children die before the age of one year, as they have insufficiently developed immunity to diseases. The mortality rate is influenced by sanitary conditions (the quality of drinking water, etc.), the quality of medical care, and the quality of food.
4. The current demographic crisis and depopulation in Russia.
At the end of 2009, the population of Russia amounted to 141 million 927 thousand people. Population growth in the country has stopped since 1991, the birth rate in the RSFSR fell below the level of simple replacement of generations back in the 1960s. Today, the death rate is 1.5 times higher than the birth rate, the population is declining by several hundred thousand people annually. A negative feature of Russia is the fact that the birth rate has dropped to the level of developed countries, while the death rate has remained at the level of developing countries. Alcohol mortality in modern Russia(600-700 thousand people per year) is associated with the world's highest level of consumption of legal and illegal (surrogate) alcoholic beverages... Population decline is somewhat constrained by immigration - primarily ethnic Russians and Russian speakers from Kazakhstan, Central Asia and the Caucasus - but these reserves are currently dwindling due to inflexible immigration policies. It is estimated that by 2050 the population of Russia will be between 83 and 115 million people According to the 2002 census, the population of Russia fell by 1.8 million from 1989 to 2002. Every minute 3 people are born in Russia, and 4 die. The global trend is the opposite: the ratio of births to deaths is 2.6. The mortality rate is especially high among Russian men, whose average life expectancy is 61.4 years. Life expectancy for women is 73.9 years. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov at a government meeting on February 17, 2010, the growth in the average life expectancy of the Russian population has been going on for several years. In 2009, this indicator increased by more than one year (1.2 years) and averaged over 69 years for both men and women. In 2009, 1.764 million children were born in the Russian Federation, which is 50 thousand or almost 3% more than in 2008, while the number of deaths decreased by 62 thousand, or 3%. According to Zhukov, the natural population decline has decreased by more than 30% compared to the level of 2008. “For the first time in 19 years, we observe a natural population growth in the Ural and Siberian federal districts,” the Deputy Prime Minister said. He also said that, according to preliminary data, at the end of the year, the population of Russia, taking into account migration, increased for the first time in 15 years.
5.Mortality and life expectancy in Russia.
6.Fertility.
The birth rate in Russia does not reach the level required for simple reproduction of the population. The fertility rate is 1.32 (the number of children per woman), while for simple reproduction of the population, a fertility rate of 2.11-2.15 is required. At the beginning of the 20th century, Russia had the highest birth rate in Europe. The most rapid decline in fertility occurred in the 1930s and 1940s. By 1965, the birth rate in the RSFSR dropped below the level of simple reproduction of generations. In the 80s, there was an increase in the birth rate due to measures public policy... In the late 1980s, the birth rate began to decline again. Against the background of an increase in mortality, there was a demographic decline (mortality is greater than the birth rate). Regional differences in fertility are gradually being smoothed out. If in the 60s the total fertility rate in Moscow was 1.4, and in Dagestan - 5, then by now this indicator in Moscow has hardly changed, and in Dagestan it has dropped to 2.13.
7.The migration situation in Russia.
Russia is in second place in the world (after the United States) in terms of the number of legal and illegal immigrants. There are more than 13 million of them in Russia. - 9% of the population. In 2006, a law was passed that greatly simplifies labor migration... One of the factors aggravating the demographic situation is the illegal trade in young women of childbearing age. According to some estimates, hundreds of thousands of women were taken abroad by deception, but the state practically does not fight this phenomenon.
There are two opposing perspectives on attracting immigrants:
· Attracting migrants will increase competitiveness Russian economy due to cheaper labor. To maintain numbers
population at one level, it is necessary to attract at least 700 thousand immigrants per year, and to maintain the working-age population - at least 1 million per year.
· Attracting unskilled migrants does not contribute to an increase in the production of goods. Long-term economic growth can
occur only due to an increase in labor productivity - that is, due to an increase in qualifications and the level of wages, and not a decrease in them.
Often, among the demographic threats to Russia's security, a possible "quiet expansion" from the densely populated China towards the Far East with the subsequent rejection of this territory according to the "Kosovo scenario" is mentioned, while the population densities of the Far East and China differ tens of times as proof. However, in China, due to the unfavorable climate, the population density decreases from the central provinces to the north and northeast, moreover, the border regions of Russia are often even more densely populated than the neighboring counties of China. From this we can conclude that the Russian Far East is not an overly attractive target for immigration. In the Far East today there are from 30 thousand to 200 thousand Chinese, which is not enough for “demographic expansion”. At the same time, the proportion of young people in the population is rapidly declining in China.
8. State demographic policy.
In 1944, awards for mothers with many children were instituted in Russia - "Mother is a heroine" and "Mother's glory". In 1952, two weeks of maternity leave were introduced. At the same time, it was during Stalin's time that the birth rate fell most strongly. From 1925 to 2000, the total fertility rate in Russia decreased by 5.59 children per woman (from 6.80 to 1.21). Of these, 3.97 children, or 71% of the total decline, occurred in 1925-1955 - the “Stalinist era”.
In 2001, the “Concept of demographic development Russian Federation for the period up to 2015 ". In 2007, a new "Concept demographic policy Of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 ". In Russia, small state payments are made at the birth of a child, as well as child support for low-income families. In a message to the Federal Assembly in 2006, President Vladimir Putin formulated a series of measures to stimulate the birth rate, including large payments for the birth of a second child. The corresponding law on "parent capital", allowing you to receive 250 thousand rubles. through participation in a mortgage, payment for education and an increase in pension savings, has been in effect since 2007. Left-wing political forces use demographic problem to accuse the government of pursuing an "anti-popular policy" and consider it necessary to dramatically increase state aid for the birth of a child. Opponents of this point of view cite data showing that the birth rate in a country does not depend on social benefits in that country. For example, in Sweden social benefits are much higher than in the United States, while the birth rate there is less (when compared with developing countries where social transfers are almost non-existent and fertility is huge, the difference is even more noticeable). From this it is concluded that an increase in payments in Russia will not lead to an increase in the birth rate. Attempts to materially stimulate the birth rate evoke a response either from marginal groups of the population, or from representatives of ethnic groups who already form large families; for the middle class, this is not a serious motivation.
Appendix to §37.
results All-Russian census population of Russia in 2002
In the course of it, it was found that between the last two censuses, from 1989 to 2002, the population of Russia decreased by 1.8 million people to 145.2 million. National structure of the population: the number of Russians - 115.9 million, or 79, 8% of the total population, Tatars - 5.6 million, or 3.8%), Ukrainians - 2.9 million, 2%, Bashkirs - 1.7 million, 1.2%), Chuvashes - 1, 6 million, 1.1%, Chechens - 1.4 million, 0.9%, Armenians - 1.1 million, 0.8%. The number of Muslim peoples was 14.5 million (10% of the population), Christian - 129 million (89%). After the census, the share of Russians dropped from 81.5% to 79.8%.
73% of Russians are urban residents, 27% are rural. Moreover, a large proportion of the urban population is concentrated in large cities. A third of Russia's inhabitants are concentrated in the largest cities - "millionaires" (13 cities): in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa, Volgograd, Perm. Moscow is one of the 20 largest cities in the world. The birth rates of urban and rural populations are converging. The 2002 census recorded a significant increase in the number of women compared to the number of men, which amounted to 10 million. According to the 2002 census, the ratio of men and women in Russia was 53.4% of women and 46.6% of men.
The census recorded an excess of the number of elderly people over the number of children:
18.1% of the population are children
61.3% - working age population
20.5% are over working age.
Global demographic crises and trends of the XX century: the first World War(1914 - 1918), Civil War (1917-1922), famine in the USSR (1932-1933), period of collectivization and mass repression (1930-1953), World War II, deportations of peoples, post-war famine, economic crisis of the 1990s ... According to demographer Anatoly Vishnevsky, the total direct and indirect demographic losses of Russia in the XX century as a result of wars, hunger, repression, economic and social upheavals are estimated at 140-150 million people. Without all these losses, the population of Russia by the end of the twentieth century would have been twice as much as it actually turned out. The latest demographic crisis has been going on for more than 10 years, and despite the absence of wars and repressions, the birth rate remains at an extremely low level, although recently it has been growing quite steadily (but, incidentally, at a rather slow pace). Similar 10-year periods of sharp declines in fertility have been observed in almost all developed countries except Israel. This crisis is explained by the overexploitation of the population in a developed market society; at the same time, the resulting deficit, labor resources, is covered by migration and the transfer of production to demographically prosperous countries. The period of the demographic crisis fully coincides with the periods of "shock therapy" in all European countries of the former socialist bloc.
During the 20th century. the aging of the population of Russia took place. When compared with other countries of low fertility, it turns out that the population of Russia is not the oldest. In 1990, it was ranked 25th among such countries (a more dramatic situation in Japan, Italy, Germany). At present, the share of people aged 65 and over in the population of Russia is 13%. According to the UN scale, a population is considered old if the proportion of this age exceeds 7%. Compared to the 1989 census, the average age of the country's inhabitants increased by 4.3 years and amounted to 37.1 years. The aging of the population in the near future can negatively affect the development of the country's economy and gives rise to a problem of financing pension system... Some officials are now proposing to raise the retirement age. But such a government decision could cause an explosion of public discontent.
Questions to think about.
1. Which of the two opposing points of view about attracting migrants seems more correct to you?
2. In your opinion, is the migration of the Chinese dangerous for Russia?
3. In your opinion, is it necessary to increase state benefits for the birth of a child?
4. In your opinion, should the retirement age be increased?