The population of the Earth has reached its critical level. Currently, our relatively small planet is home to 7.5 billion people, and every second there is a new life. However, such a huge population is unevenly distributed on the planet. Some countries have significantly higher birth rates than others. This is influenced primarily by factors such as genetics and the environment. Take, for example, all the countries of the African continent: these countries have a higher birth rate, therefore, more and more babies appear every year. At the same time, people inhabiting Europe or North America, for example, do not carry the genes responsible for the appearance of a large number of descendants, and, as a result, these territories are not so densely populated. Today we are going to talk about the top ten countries with the highest birth rates in the world. Needless to say, all of them (with the exception of one) are located in Africa. These data were obtained thanks to the latest population census. The birth rate is statistically classified for a thousand people. According to these data, the following countries are among the top ten with the largest number of children who are born annually.
10. Afghanistan
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is located in the southeast of Asia. This densely populated state is estimated to have achieved a birth rate of 38 people per 1000 population. Afghanistan is currently home to 32 million people, but this number is expected to increase every year. The population is growing at a rate of 2.32% per year.
9. Angola
Angola is a South African state, the seventh largest in Africa. According to the latest figures, the population of Angola is 24.3 million. It is one of the largest states in Africa with a significant birth rate, which is approximately 39 newborns per 1000 population. Given the limited resources, such a rising birth rate could pose a threat to the country's economy.
8. Somalia
This African state is located in the Horn of Africa and has a population of over 10.8 million. The country is in eighth place thanks to the birth rate, which is 40 babies per 1000 population. Although this part of the region has a fairly high fertility rate, Somalia has a higher fertility rate than most countries. Natural population growth increases by 3% every year. Somalia is the sixth largest country with the highest fertility rates in the world.
7. Malawi
This country on the African continent, like many others, boasts a high birth rate. According to the latest data, the population of the country is 17,377,468. The birth rate has recently stood at nearly 42 babies per thousand of the population. Malawi is often referred to as the "warm heart of Africa" because of its hospitable population. The population of the country is completely dependent on agriculture, however, apparently, it is not developed enough to meet the growing demands of the population, which is constantly increasing.
6. Burundi
It is the second largest and one of the most populous states in Africa. Burundi is not only rich in fertile soils and developing agriculture, but also has higher fertility rates than most other countries. According to the latest data, more than 42 babies are born here per thousand of the population, which allowed the total population to reach 10.3 million. Due to a lack of resources, the population in Burundi suffers from many diseases, especially AIDS, so the average population growth is comparatively lower, despite the higher birth rate.
5. Burkina Faso
As you can see, this is another African country in the top ten with the highest birth rate. It is located in western Africa and occupies a significant area. The country is surrounded by the six most important African states and has a total population of 18.3 million. The birth rate is slightly lower compared to Burundi: 41 children per 1000 population. However, there are enough natural resources to meet the needs of a growing population.
4. Zambia
Zambia is not as densely populated as most African countries, but has high fertility rates compared to the area it covers. Zambia is the 70th most populous country in the world. Its population is 15.2 million. Statistics show that the annual growth rate is about 3.3%, and the birth rate is 42 people per 1000 population. Despite the high birth rate, the country can cope with the needs of the population, since it has a larger area and, as a result, more resources.
3. Uganda
Like many other countries in Africa, Uganda is a densely populated and fertile country. Given its very high growth rates, it should come as no surprise that it is the third largest country with the highest fertility rates not only in Africa, but globally. The total population of Uganda is 39,234,256 and the birth rate is about 44 children per thousand. The standard of living is quite low, as the government is unable to meet the needs of the entire population.
2. Mali
This country is located on the edge of the Sahara Desert in western Africa. The Republic of Mali is one of the most densely populated regions in Africa. With a fertility rate of 45 babies per thousand, the population of Mali is currently estimated at 15,786,227. Most of it lives in the countryside. Thus, most people are unable to achieve high living standards.
1. Niger
This country is located on the banks of the Niger River and is named after her. It is located in western Africa and covers vast territories. The birth rate here is very high and reaches 46 people per 1000 population. High birth rates and fertility rates are the main obstacles to achieving great economic success for the country, as they make it difficult to obtain income in accordance with needs.
In 2015, the population growth in Russia amounted to 33 thousand 700 people
In our country, in January-December 2015, 1 million 944 thousand 100 babies were born. 1 million 911 400 people died. The population growth was 32 thousand 700 people.
Compared to 2014, the birth rate in 2015 decreased by 3200 people, the mortality rate - by 2200. So, in 2014, 1 million 947 thousand 300 babies were born, 1 million 913 thousand 600 people died.
The number of registered marriages (1 million 161 thousand) in 2015 almost doubled the number of divorces (611 thousand 600). In 2014, they got married and got divorced more often than in 2015 - the number of marriages was 1 million 226 thousand, the number of divorces - 693 thousand 700.
General results of the natural movement of the population of the Russian Federation in 2015
For the fourth year now, Russians are overturning demographers' forecasts
After 2011, a new failure was predicted for our country, another crossbar of the “Russian cross”.
Since 2011, there are fewer and fewer potential mothers in Russia, because girls born during the demographic pit of the nineties reach the age of majority, and much more populous generations of the early seventies drop out of the process.
However, neither the economic crisis nor the decline in the number of young women led to a decrease in the Russian birth rate. The statistical results of 2015 indicate that natural population growth continues in the Russian Federation.
In the table, it looks like this:
Natural increase in the population of the Russian Federation (thousand people)
Compared to forecasts, everything happens exactly the opposite.
Calculations based on the number of maternal generations suggested that from 2010 to 2015, the number of young Russians born should have decreased by 150-200 thousand, and the natural decline should have reached 400 thousand people per year.
But in fact, the birth rate is increasing and for the third year in a row has been steadily, albeit only slightly, exceeding the mortality rate.
An increase in the birth rate against the background of a decrease in the number of mothers means only one thing: family size is growing in Russia. The number of two- and three-child parents is growing, and there are fewer one-child parents.
Indeed, the total fertility rate (TFR), which shows the average number of offspring a woman will leave if the birth rate in the country remains at the current level, changed in the 21st century as follows:
The level reached to date is still lower than that which provides a simple replacement of generations, but higher than the level of any country in continental Europe, except France.
True, in France, the growth in the birth rate in recent years has been provided mainly by migrants. In Russia, on the contrary, the positive trend of the last decade has been entirely supported by the Russians.
The birth rate of the peoples of the North Caucasus and southern Siberia, formerly distinguished by large families, is now declining, gradually approaching the average Russian level. Using the figures obtained in 2015 as an example, it looks like this:
In the group of ten national regions with traditionally high birth rates (Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kalmykia, Bashkiria, Yakutia, Tuva), 8,499 fewer people were born last year than in 2014.
In the group of sixty subjects of the Federation without national status, where the absolute majority of the population is Russian, 7,525 more people were born.
The trend seems even more contrasting when you consider that the number of potential mothers in Russian regions is decreasing due to the failure of the nineties, and in most national republics, where such a deep failure was not observed in the nineties, the maternal cohort continues to grow. That is, there are more women of parental age in the Caucasus, fewer babies, and vice versa in central Russia.
This suggests that the difference in the size of families between Russians and some national minorities, which developed in the second half of the 20th century, is now decreasing even faster than can be judged by the above absolute figures.
Finally, here are the top ten regions where the birth rate grew the fastest in 2015:
- Sevastopol + 12.1%
- Kaluga region + 7.8%
- Nenets Autonomous District + 6.3%
- St. Petersburg + 5.2%
- Moscow region + 5.2%
- Tula region + 4.0%
- Moscow + 3.5%
- Bryansk region + 3.0%
- Vladimir region + 3.0%
- Nizhny Novgorod region + 2.5%
It is symbolic that this rating is crowned by the hero city of Sevastopol, which has returned to its homeland. It is no less significant that regions of central and northwestern Russia prevail among the leaders of the demographic revival, which recently experienced the most severe crisis.
Our country is one of the few countries in the world where there is a low birth rate. In combination with high mortality, it has a negative impact on demographic indicators. In recent years, the birth rate in Russia has fallen sharply. Forecasts so far are also disappointing.
General information about the population of Russia
According to Rosstat, the population of Russia in 2018 amounted to 146 million 880 thousand 432 people. This figure puts our country in ninth place in terms of population in the world. The average population density in our country is 8.58 people. by 1 km 2.
Most of the inhabitants are concentrated in the European territory of Russia (about 68%), although it is much smaller in area than in Asia. This is clearly seen in the distribution of population density: in the west of the country it is 27 people. per 1 km 2, and in the center and in the east - only 3 people. by 1 km 2. The highest density value is recorded in Moscow - over 4626 people / 1 km 2, and the minimum - in the Chukotka Okrug (below 0.07 people / 1 km 2).
The share of urban residents is 74.43 percent. There are 170 cities in Russia with a population of over 100,000. In 15 of them, the population exceeds 1 million.
The birth rate in Russia is quite low.
In total, over 200 different nationalities can be found in the country. They are also called ethnic groups. The share of Russians is about 81 percent. In second place are Tatars (3.9%), and in third place are Ukrainians. Approximately a percentage of the total population is accounted for by such nationalities as the Chuvash, Bashkirs, Chechens, and Armenians.
In Russia, the prevalence of the elderly population over those of working age is clearly expressed. The ratio of employed and retired people in our country is 2.4 / 1, while, for example, in the United States, it is 4.4 / 1, in China - 3.5 / 1, and in Uganda - 9/1. The closest figures are in Greece: 2.5 / 1.
Demographic characteristics of Russia
A gradual population decline is typical for Russia. In the 50s of the 20th century, natural growth was at the level of 15-20 people per 1000 inhabitants per year. There were many large families.
In the 60s, he was rapidly falling, and in the 70s and 80s it was only a little more than 5 people.
A new sharp drop occurred in the early 90s, as a result of which it became negative and was at the level of minus 5-6 people per thousand inhabitants per year. In the middle of the 2000s, the situation began to improve, and by 2013 the growth entered the positive zone. However, in recent years it has deteriorated again.
However, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia and mortality are not always interconnected. Thus, the fall in the birth rate in the 60s did not lead to a change in the dynamics of mortality. At the same time, in the first half of the 90s, mortality increased sharply, but somewhat later than the birth rate fell. In the 2000s, the birth rate began to rise, but the death rate continued to increase, but not at such a rapid pace. Since the mid-to-late 2000s, there has been an improvement in all indicators: the birth rate grew, and the death rate fell. In recent years, the statistics of fertility and mortality in Russia has the following features: there is a sharp decline in the birth rate, but the death rate continues to decrease.
In general, over the past 65 years, the birth rate has dropped by about half, and the death rate has hardly changed.
Birth rate in Russia in recent decades
If you do not take the last 2 years, the overall picture of the birth rate reflects a sharp decline in the 90s and a gradual rise since the mid-2000s. There is a clear positive relationship between rural and urban populations, but the swing is higher for rural areas. All this is shown by the graph of the birth rate in Russia by year.
The rapid decline in the indicator continued until 1993, the field of which slowed down sharply. The bottom was reached in 1999. Then a gradual increase in values began, which reached their maximum value in 2015. For the rural population, the maximum was passed a year earlier. Since there are more urban dwellers than rural dwellers, the average indicators more clearly reflect the dynamics of the urban population.
Dynamics of the population of Russia
The population is influenced not only by natural growth, but also by migration flows. Mostly migrants come from the countries of Central Asia. In recent years, refugees arriving from Ukraine have also affected the growth of the population of our country.
The total population of Russia increased until 1996, after which its steady decline began, which continued until 2010. Then the growth resumed again.
General demographic situation
The situation with demography in Russia, according to UN estimates, meets the criteria of a demographic crisis. The average fertility rate is 1.539. The mortality rate is traditionally high in Russia. A characteristic feature of our country is a sharp predominance of deaths from cardiovascular diseases over other causes, which is directly related to the destructive lifestyle of most Russians. Improper diet, physical inactivity and smoking are common causes of death. The extremely unsatisfactory state of medicine, and in some places the depressing environmental situation, also affects. Drunkenness is common in many regions.
In terms of life expectancy, Russia lags far behind all developed countries and even behind a number of developing countries.
Fertility in Russia by region
The distribution of this indicator on the map of our country is rather uneven. The highest values are recorded in the east of the North Caucasus and in some areas in the south of Siberia. Here the birth rate reaches 25-26.5 people per thousand inhabitants per year.
The lowest rates are observed in the central regions of the European part of Russia. This is especially pronounced in the southeast of the Central Federal District and in some regions of the Volga region. In the very center, the situation is somewhat better, which is obviously due to the influence of Moscow. In general, the worst birth rates are observed in approximately the same regions where the maximum death rate is recorded.
Fertility in Russia in recent years
Since 2016, the country has seen a sharp drop in the birth rate. The number of births this year was 10% less than in the same period last year, and in 2017, the birth rate in Russia showed the same decline in magnitude compared to 2016.
In the first 3 months of 2018, 391 thousand people were born in Russia, which is 21 thousand less than in January-March last year. However, in some regions, the birth rate rose slightly. These are the Altai Republic, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Kalmykia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.
At the same time, mortality, on the contrary, decreased - by 2% over the year.
The reasons for the decline in fertility may be natural: the number of women of childbearing age is gradually decreasing, which is an echo of the decline of the 90s. Therefore, the decrease in the absolute birth rate is estimated at a lower value - 7.5%, and it may reflect the change in the socio-economic situation in the country in recent years.
Due to the low birth rate, the natural increase was also low. Although in 2017, 63.6 thousand people died less than a year earlier, the decrease in the number of births was 203 thousand people. At the same time, the total population increased slightly due to the increased migration flow from Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, from Ukraine. Thus, the birth rate in Russia in 2017 and 2018 was significantly reduced.
Forecast
According to the forecast of Rosstat, the demographic situation in the country will continue to deteriorate, and migration flows will no longer be able to cover the natural population decline. Hydrocarbon prices will obviously play an important role in the further demographic fate of the country, as before. Thus, the birth rate in Russia will be low.
The Russian space itself is so large and diverse, and the population, infrastructure and production, it would seem, are "smeared" over it so unevenly that demographic differences should be extremely striking. However, the demographic “gaps” between the regions with the best and worst indicators of economic and social life are still less pronounced than one might expect.
The gradual implementation and completion of the demographic transition in Russia (a situation where there is a decrease in fertility and mortality and simple reproduction begins) mitigates regional differences in population reproduction. They were maximal in the 1960s-1970s, when some territories had already switched to the one-two-year-old family model (Central Russia, North-West), while others, as a rule, less urbanized, traditionally agrarian, still existed from four families with five children (republics of the North Caucasus, southern Siberia).
Now the highest birth rates are typical for Altai and Tyva, a number of North Caucasian republics (Ingushetia, Dagestan, Kalmykia, Chechnya), autonomous regions of Siberia (Ust-Ordynsky and Aginsky Buryatsky, Taimyrsky, Evenkiysky) and the Far East (Chukotsky, Koryaksky).
Only in 9 Russian regions with a total population of 1,520 thousand people (1.06% of the country's population) TFR exceeds two children per woman, but nowhere does it reach three. Of the North Caucasian republics, such indicators are recorded by statistics bodies only in Chechnya (2.965). Even in regions with once high birth rates - Dagestan and Kalmykia - TFRs of more than 2,000 are now observed only in rural areas. Urban residents of these republics demonstrate almost the average Russian birth rate.
As a result, the most urbanized regions of the Center and North-West of the country, with a high proportion of the Russian population, have the lowest fertility rates. TFR within the boundaries of 1,129 - 1,200 children is observed in the Leningrad, Kaliningrad, Tula, Smolensk regions, Moscow and St. Petersburg.
The crude birth rate, as an indicator, is extremely dependent on the age structure of the population.
An increase in the number of births is facilitated by a favorable age structure of the population, that is, the more potential young parents, the more children will be born, respectively, and vice versa, if the proportion of elderly prevails in the age structure of the population and grows, then the birth rate will decline.
The age structure of the Russian population is aging; this process has been going on for almost a hundred years and is accompanied by a decrease in the proportion of children and an increase in the proportion of older people. Particularly noticeable changes have taken place in recent decades: the share of people of retirement age (men 60 years old and older, women 55 years old and older) increased from 11.7% in 1959 to 20.4% in 2002 and 22.2% in 2010, and the share of children under 16 years old decreased over the same periods from 30.0% to 18.0% and 16.2%.
Particularly noticeable changes have taken place in recent decades: the share of people of retirement age (men 60 years old and older, women 55 years old and older) increased from 11.7% in 1959 to 20.4% in 2002 and 22.2% in 2010, and the share of children under 16 years old decreased over the same periods from 30.0% to 18.0% and 16.2%.
The population of regions with an earlier onset of the demographic transition and with a long-term migration outflow has aged especially strongly. The maximum share of persons of retirement age (25-28% in 2010) is in the regions of the Center, the Pskov and Novgorod regions of the North-West and in St. Petersburg, as well as in the Nizhny Novgorod and Penza regions of the Volga Federal District adjacent to the Center. The population of Moscow and the Moscow Region also continues to age, but a strong influx of younger migrants has softened this trend, so the proportion of the elderly population is slightly higher than the national average (23.7%). The share of the population over the working age has increased in the "Russian" regions of the South (Rostov, Volgograd regions, Krasnodar Territory - 24%), as well as in Leningrad, Kirov, Ulyanovsk, Saratov and Kurgan regions (24-25%).
This indicator is minimal in the northern autonomous okrugs, from where those who have retired leave. At the beginning of the reforms, inflation "ate" the savings of northerners, and the outflow of pensioners decreased, which, along with the general trend of aging, led to a noticeable increase in the share of the population over working age in these regions (in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - from 2 to 8%, in Khanty -Mansiysk and Chukotka - from 3 to 11% for 1990-2010). In the republics with an incomplete demographic transition, the age structure of the population is still young, the proportion of the elderly is low (Chechnya, Ingushetia, Tyva, Dagestan - 8.0-10.7%). Accordingly, the share of children has a reverse geography: it is minimal in the most aged regions and in two federal cities (12-14%), and the largest share is in the republics with an incomplete demographic transition (Tyva, Ingushetia and Chechnya - 31-34%).
Indicators that do not depend on the age and sex structure of the population are migration and natural increase (decrease). In the 2000s. the contribution of migration has decreased compared to the peak period of migration inflow (mid-1990s), when migrations overlapped natural population decline in almost all regions south of Moscow. In 2000-2006. less than half (43%) of the regions had a migration increase in the population, while only in Moscow and the Moscow region it was significant, compensating for the natural decline. In the Leningrad Oblast, migrations made up for 2/3 of the natural decline, but in St. Petersburg their contribution was less noticeable. In half of Russia's regions (42 out of 83), natural decline was supplemented by migration outflow. Most of these regions are located in the European part of the country, in which the migration outflow was small, in contrast to the Far Eastern regions. Only in some republics of the North Caucasus, in the Altai Republic, as well as in two autonomous districts of the Tyumen region and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, a positive natural increase in 2001-2006. supplemented by migration. At the same time, in the republics of the North Caucasus (Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan), a positive migration increase was ensured by the return of refugees after the Chechen war. In the late 2000s, the situation looked better compared to the beginning and the middle of the decade. In 2007-2010. half of the regions had a migration increase compared to 43% in 2000-2006. In 7 regions it overlapped the reduced natural population decline (Moscow, Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Belgorod, Kaliningrad region and Novosibirsk region, Krasnodar region and the Republic of Tatarstan ), these are mainly developed regions with large agglomerations, the traditionally attractive south and the west neighboring the European Union. The group of regions with positive values of both natural and migration growth has changed: the south of the Tyumen region, the Tomsk, Astrakhan regions, and the Republic of Bashkortostan have been added to the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. In 2011, they were joined by Moscow, which for the first time in many years had not only migration, but also natural population growth.
Almost all the republics of the North Caucasus, except for Adygea and Ingushetia (data on Ingushetia are extremely inaccurate), became a zone of migration outflow, and in North Ossetia and Karachay-Cherkessia, the migration outflow exceeded natural population growth. The migration outflow from the regions of the Far East continued to decrease, in the Khabarovsk Territory it stopped, and in Yakutia it was fully compensated by the increased natural increase.
In connection with the analysis of these fertility indicators, I have identified three groups of regions:
I Demographically depressed regions of Russia - they are characterized by low mortality, deliberately limited fertility, orientation towards small families, and there is also a high intensity of migration processes, in such regions the natural population decline is 5% or more ?: Pskov region, Kirovskaya region, rep. Mordovia, Tula region, Tambov region,
II Demographically active regions of Russia are distinguished by a low mortality rate, a high deliberately unrestricted birth rate, a tradition of having many children, and a low intensity of migration processes from village to city and outside the republic.
III Regions with a transitional type of reproduction - this type of reproduction is characterized by low mortality, combined with a rapid decline in the birth rate, and an increasing migration mobility of the population. Another feature is the transition from large to medium-sized and one-child families, that is, these are regions with a rejuvenated age structure, in which there is a potential for natural population growth, the rate of natural decline here is 0-5%.
Center expert, L.I. Kravchenko
Ranking first in the world in terms of area, Russia is rapidly losing its position in the demographic field. If in 1991 the Russian Federation was on the 6th place in terms of population, then in 2012 it was on the 10th place, and by 2050 Russia will take the 14th place. The decline in the population with such a huge territory creates threats, first of all, to the territorial integrity of the state. The situation is obvious: the country is going through a demographic crisis. But the question remains open: what factors and reasons is it caused and does it affect the entire population or is it selective?
This study is devoted to the analysis of this problem.
The demographic problem in Russia has been discussed for a long time. Since the mid-90s, the population has declined in the country. In 2010, the process of population decline was stopped. According to Rosstat, in 2012 the population of Russia increased for the first time and in the first half of 2013 amounted to 143.3 million people. (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. Population of Russia 1990-2013, in million hours
The increase in the population along with the continuing natural decline was ensured by the migration balance. In 2013, according to Rosstat, Russia for the first time overcame natural population decline. However, the dynamics of the change in natural increase demonstrates the excess of the birth rate over the death rate only in a few federal districts of Russia. The question remains - who was responsible for this "demographic miracle"? Does it have ethnic and confessional roots or is it due to material factors (economic well-being of the regions)?
Until 2009, the North Caucasian Federal District remained the only federal district with a positive birth rate surplus. In 2012, the number of such federal districts increased to four: North Caucasian, Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern. The increase in the Far Eastern Federal District is due to the increase in the increase in the Republic of Sakha (ethnic composition: Yakuts - 49%, Russians - 30%). In the Siberian Federal District, 44% growth is provided by population growth in the republics of Buryatia, Tyva, Khakassia, Altai, 56% due to regions with a share of the Russian population of 83-88%. In the Urals Federal District, a surplus was achieved mainly due to the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts (the share of the Russian population is 63.5% and 59.7%, respectively). (Fig. 2). V In the first half of 2013, the dynamics remained unchanged.
Fig. 2. Dynamics of natural population growth by Federal Districts, in people (according to Rosstat data)
In the next two years, natural population growth is expected in the Volga and Southern Federal Districts. At the moment, the Volga Federal District has a positive balance - in five national republics (Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Mari El, Bashkortostan and Udmurtia), as well as in the Orenburg region (75% of Russians) and Perm Krai (83% of Russians). In the Southern Federal District, there is a surplus in Kalmykia and the Astrakhan region (61% of Russians). The increase in the district will be achieved due to the excess of the birth rate over the death rate in the Krasnodar Territory (approximately in 2013) and the Republic of Adygea (approximately in 2014).
The most demographically disadvantaged Central Federal District will begin to show positive dynamics no earlier than 2017.According to data for the first half of 2013, natural population decline persisted in all regions of the Central Region, while Moscow is leading in terms of a positive balance of natural movement of the population.
Table 1. Forecast of natural population growth by federal districts
|
Cent- |
North |
North Caucasus |
Privolzh |
Ural |
Siberian |
Far Eastern |
||
|
Year reached |
forecast - 2017 |
forecast - 2015 |
forecast - 2014 |
always gain |
forecast - 2014 |
|||
|
Subjects that will provide positive |
Moscow, Moscow region |
Republic |
Kalmykia and Astra- |
6 res- |
Tatarstan, Mari El, Bashkor- |
Khanty |
Republic of Altai, Buryatia, Tuva, Khakassia, Zabay |
Sakha (Yakutia) |
The current state of natural population growth is characterized by a steady increase in the birth rate and a slower decline in mortality. This is most likely due to the transfer of the increased birth rate a generation earlier (the years of perestroika) to the USSR.
The birth rate increase coefficient, which shows how many times the birth rate has increased by districts, indicates an accelerated growth in the North Caucasian (1.7 times), Ural and Central federal districts. (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3. The ratio of the birth rate and mortality rate in 2012 to the rate of birth rate and death rate in 2000
With regard to the growth rate of mortality, a slowdown is observed in all districts, except for the North Caucasus.
In absolute terms, the birth rate in the North Caucasian Federal District is significantly inferior to the birth rate in other districts. However, in terms of relative indicators (fertility and mortality per 1000 people), the North Caucasus region demonstrates the best indicators - high fertility and low mortality. On average, the birth rate in this district is higher than the average Russian birth rate by 4.1 units. , in mortality 5 units lower. The most unfavorable region in the field of demography - the Central District - is 1.5 times worse in fertility and 1.7 times worse than in the North Caucasus Federal District in terms of mortality. (Fig. 4).
Fig. 4. Fertility and mortality rates per 1000 people by federal districts
The fertility-to-mortality ratio in this district has exceeded 2, while in the Urals, Siberian and Far East only in recent years it has been possible to achieve only 1. And although each federal district in dynamics demonstrates an increase in the gap between fertility and mortality, the highest rates are in the North Caucasus region. (Fig. 5).
Fig. 5. Birth-to-death ratio by district
In recent years, the top ten leaders in terms of natural population growth have not changed. So, growth in the Republic of Dagestan is ahead of this indicator in all federal districts with positive dynamics (except for the North Caucasus), and growth in the Tyumen region and the Chechen Republic in 2012 is ahead of the positive balance in the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts.
The largest population decline was noted in a number of regions of the Central Federal District. The absolute leader in this indicator is the Moscow region, while Moscow is among the ten leaders in terms of natural growth. St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region have the same dynamics.
Table 2. Leaders in population growth in 2012
Table 3. Leaders in terms of population decline in 2012
Traditionally, population decline is observed in regions with a predominantly Russian population. This is the most important effect. Among the demographic leaders are the national republics with a low share of the Russian population, as well as the Tyumen region and Moscow, in which the growth was achieved due to immigration and a high standard of living of citizens.
Based on the hypothesis that natural decline directly depends on the share of the Russian population, let us consider the dynamics of the natural movement of the population in 20 regions with a share of the Russian population above 90% and in 9 regions with a share from 1 to 31%.
The regions with the maximum percentage of the Russian people in the ethnic composition show a decreasing natural population decline, but the prospect of achieving an excess of birth rates over mortality in the coming years is unattainable. (Fig. 6).
Fig. 6. The balance of natural growth in 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation with a share of the Russian population of over 90%, in persons
At the same time, in 9 subjects with a share of the Russian population of 0.7% up to 31%, the birth rate significantly exceeds the death rate, with the leaders being the Islamic republics of the North Caucasus. (Fig. 7).
Fig. 7.Balance of natural growth in 9 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in people
In 2020, 2025 and 2030, the so-called "baby boom" will affect exclusively the national republics. In the Chechen Republic, Ingushetia, Tyva, Dagestan, the Republic of Altai, Yakutia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, a population explosion will be observed every year.
Table 4. Regions with the highest expected fertility
|
Chechen Republic |
Chechen Republic |
Chechen Republic |
|
The Republic of Ingushetia |
The Republic of Ingushetia |
The Republic of Ingushetia |
|
Tyva Republic |
Tyva Republic |
Tyva Republic |
|
The Republic of Dagestan |
The Republic of Dagestan |
The Republic of Dagestan |
|
Altai Republic |
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
Altai Republic |
|
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
Altai Republic |
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) |
|
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
|
|
Nenets Autonomous Okrug |
The Republic of Buryatia |
|
|
Kabardino-Balkar Republic |
Republic of North Ossetia-Alania |
Chukotka Autonomous District |
|
Republic of Kalmykia |
Republic of Kalmykia |
Karachay-Cherkess Republic |
The worst birth rates in these years will be demonstrated by regions with a Russian population. In 2030, another Orthodox people, the Mordovians, will also be far from the baby boom. The top ten regions with the lowest birth rates in 2020-2030 include mainly the regions of the Central Federal District.
Table 5. Regions with the lowest expected fertility
|
Moscow city |
Moscow city |
St. Petersburg |
|
St. Petersburg |
St. Petersburg |
Moscow city |
|
Moscow region |
Leningrad region |
Leningrad region |
|
Tula region |
Moscow region |
Tula region |
|
Murmansk region |
Tula region |
Smolensk region |
|
Leningrad region |
Smolensk region |
Voronezh region |
|
Yaroslavskaya oblast |
Yaroslavskaya oblast |
Moscow region |
|
Ivanovo region |
Murmansk region |
Ryazan Oblast |
|
Kamchatka Krai |
Vladimir region |
The Republic of Mordovia |
|
Magadan Region |
Ivanovo region |
Tambov Region |
Thus, the demographic crisis is mediated by ethnic selectivity. The decline in the Russian population continues and has already led to its decline by more than 8 million people since 1989. Since 2002, the number of ethnic groups professing Islam has increased. The number of Uzbeks doubled, 1.6 times - Tajiks, which is explained by migration flows. The size of the Russian Islamic population has increased, while the peoples living in the territory of the North Caucasian Federal District have demonstrated high growth rates. Among the Orthodox peoples, the number of Armenians and Ossetians increased. There was a reduction in such Orthodox ethnic groups like Russians, Udmurts, Mordovians, Chuvashs, Mari. Since 2009, the population of Udmurtia began to grow due to natural growth, in the republics of Mari El and Chuvashia - since 2012, the decline in Mordovia has continued, the number of the Russian population continues to decline due to the natural decline in the population.
Table 6. Ethnic composition of Russia according to census data, million people
|
1989 year |
2002 year |
2010 r. |
|
|
All population |
147,02 |
145,16 |
142,8565 |
|
Russians |
119,87 |
115,87 |
111,0169 |
|
Tatars |
5,52 |
5,56 |
5,310649 |
|
Ukrainians |
4,36 |
2,94 |
1,927988 |
|
Bashkirs |
1,35 |
1,67 |
1,584554 |
|
Chuvash |
1,77 |
1,64 |
1,435872 |
|
Chechens |
1,36 |
1,43136 |
|
|
Armenians |
0,53 |
1,13 |
1,182388 |
Based on the 2010 census data on the share of the Russian population in the population of the subjects, we can talk about a decrease in the Russian population in 2012 by 88,000 people, while the population of other nationalities increased by 108,000 people.
The rapid decline in the share of the Russian population in the national republics creates threats to the national security of the country: the connecting role of the Russian people is lost, regions appear that do not identify themselves with Russia, and there is a rupture of ties between peoples in the spatial field of Russian civilization. The demographic situation in the region is becoming an indicator of separatist sentiments. The most unstable in this respect are such regions as Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya, with a share of titular peoples of more than 90%, as well as the Republic of Tyva. These republics also have the lowest share of Russian-speaking people. Potential hotbeds of tension can be those regions in which the share of titular peoples exceeds 50% and due to natural growth this share increases.
Table 7. Regions with the greatest potential threat of nationalist hatred with the Russian people and separatism
|
Subject of the federation |
Share of titular people |
Share of Russians |
Share of those who speak Russian |
|
The Republic of Dagestan |
|||
|
The Republic of Ingushetia |
|||
|
Chechen Republic |
|||
|
Tyva Republic |
|||
|
Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria |
|||
|
Chuvash Republic |
|||
|
Republic of North Ossetia |
|||
|
Republic of Kalmykia |
|||
|
Republic of Tatarstan |
|||
|
Republic of Karachay-Cherkess |
For further analysis, let us introduce the concept of the coefficient of "demographic stability", allowing for cluster analysis.
doo 
, where
N (t ) is the number of people for the corresponding year (census years are selected), P / S is the ratio of the total fertility rate to the total death rate. The introduced coefficient indicates population growth due to the current natural increase and the demographic result of a long previous increase.
The threshold value in the case of a harmonious combination of positive signs of demographic stability (previous growth and current growth) is 2. If the coefficient is less than two, then the conclusion follows that something is wrong. Either earlier or at the current moment. It is from this that the possibility of a semi-quantitative assessment of "stability" follows. The calculation takes into account those peoples that do not have statehood outside of Russia (to exclude the error associated with migration flows). (Fig. 8).
Fig. 8. Coefficients of demographic stability of the peoples of Russia
This figure shows that there is also a confessional attribute "responsible" for demographic success. The coefficient of demographic stability has a pronounced confessional character: for peoples professing Islam it is equal to 3.85; for Buddhists and shamanists - 2.86, for Orthodox peoples - 1.83. The only Orthodox people with a coefficient above 2 are the Ossetians. The peoples of the Islamic area, Buddhist and other beliefs are demographically reviving more actively. For some reason, Orthodoxy is still combined with the worst indicators of demographic development. Probably, the ideological mission of Orthodoxy has not yet become an effective factor influencing the reproductive tradition. The worst indicators are among the Mordovians and Russians, who have not yet reached the level of self-reproduction of the population.
Thus, the problem of the demographic crisis in Russia is mediated not only by ethnicity, but also by the mental factor, in particular, the role and significance of the ideological function of religion. The problem of the revival of Orthodoxy is most acutely reflected in the Russian people. Therefore, indeed, one can speak of an ethno- and confessional-selective demographic crisis.
In the work "State policy of bringing Russia out of the demographic crisis" a four-factor model is presented that explains the demographic situation in the country. It includes the material factor, the ideological and spiritual state of society, the civilizational identity of the Russian state and the role of state policy in managing demographic processes.
Usually, an excessively exaggerated value of the material factor actually affects only to some extent the results of the natural movement of the population. The emphasis of government demographic policy on maternity capital does not particularly affect demographics and does not explain the observed positive phenomena in the current rise in fertility. The psychological state of the population is more important. Thus, the stress of the 1998 default led to an increase in population decline in 1999, and the 2009 crisis slowed down the decline in population decline.
Improvement in fertility rates depends on the number of people entering childbearing age. The correlation between those born and those who entered childbearing age is greatest when the childbearing age is 30 years, as well as 25 and 29 (the birth rate of one year was compared with the birth rate of a year, equal to the difference between the compared year and the childbearing age). This correlation is consistent with actual data on the distribution of births by mother's age. (Fig. 9).
It follows that the current improvement in the birth rate in Russia is associated with the high birth rate growth in the 1980s. This was a short-lived psychological effect of perestroika. In the future, the birth rate should slow down, since the new generation of people of childbearing age are children of the 90s, when there was a sharp drop in the birth rate. If we take 25 years as the average childbearing age, then starting from 2013 the growth rate will slow down, but if the childbearing age is 30 years, then over the next five years, an increase in the birth rate can still be expected for some time, but from 2017 it will start to decline steadily. (Fig. 10).
The material factor explains nothing at all in terms of the successful natural movement in national regions where the standard of living is low. Figure 11 shows a slowdown in decline in 2010 as a consequence of the 2009 crisis for subjects with the largest share of the Russian population. (Fig. 11).
In this way, the demographic problem is only to a small extent determined by the material factor; the ideological and spiritual state of society has a significant impact.
The following are manifestations of the decaying ideological and spiritual state of the Russian and other Orthodox peoples:
Value crisis;
Late marriage: decline in the number of people who marry between the ages of 18-24 and growth in the range of 25-34 years (Fig. 12);
Divorces. The number of divorces per 1000 people in the regions with the highest population decline is 3.9-4.8, in the republics of the North Caucasus, 0.9 -3;
Sexualization of youth;
Extramarital reproduction;
Family nuclearization;
The problem of lonely people;
Abortion. Since 2000, there has been a trend towards a decrease in the number of abortions, which is largely due to the widespread use of contraceptives. But Russia still has the highest abortion rate in Europe. In absolute terms, the number of abortions in 2012 was 1.06 million (for comparison, in 2000 - 2.13 million);
Alcoholization, drug addiction, substance abuse;
Suicide;
Gender gap and specificity of family relations;
Confessional basis for demographic variability.
The government refuses to notice the fact that low birth rates and high mortality rates in our country are associated primarily with the spiritual state of society. So, in Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of October 9, 2007 N 1351 "On the approval of the Concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025" is written, that "the modern demographic situation in the Russian Federation is largely due to the socio-economic processes that took place in the XX century."
The main reasons for the low birth rates are named: “low monetary income of many families, lack of normal living conditions, modern family structure (orientation toward having few children, an increase in the number of single-parent families), hard physical labor of a significant part of working women (about 15 percent), working conditions that do not meet sanitary and hygienic norms, low level of reproductive health, high number of abortions ”. However, if you look at the statistics data, you can see that it is in the national republics, especially in the North Caucasus Federal District, that the population with the lowest incomes lives, whose birth rate is not affected by either the income level or the 2009 crisis.
A new problem, aggravating the demographic crisis in the country, is the immigration challenge to national identity. At present, the stabilization of the population in Russia has been achieved due to the migration balance (in 2012, the number of remaining migrants was 294,930).
The first years after the collapse of the USSR were characterized by two flows of migration: the Russian population from the former Soviet republics to Russia and the Russian population from Russia to Europe, the United States and Israel. At the first stage, there was an inflow and outflow of highly qualified personnel (Fig. 13).
A noticeable decrease in the outflow of the population by the end of the 1990s. In the 2000s, the outflow of skilled labor decreases, but there is an increase in labor immigrants from a number of CIS republics. The coincidence of the dynamics of migration inflows of the population from the CIS republics (Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the republics of Central Asia) testifies to their labor quality. The exception is migrants from Kazakhstan, who, most likely, are the Russian population or assimilated Kazakhs who moved to Russia not for labor earnings, but for permanent residence. (Fig. 14).
In 2012, 91% of the total migration increase accounted for the CIS countries, of which 50% - these are representatives of the republics professing Islam (Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan), together with Kazakhstan - 63.5%. The influx, on the one hand, of a low-skilled labor force, on the other hand, the increase in representatives of other religious confessions, raises the question of the immigration challenge of national identity.
In the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025, one of the tasks in the field of demographic policy sounds like "attracting migrants in accordance with the needs of demographic and socio-economic development, taking into account the need for their social adaptation and integration." This means that the current migration situation in the country is a consequence of the implementation of a specific task, which clearly does not correspond to the national security of the country.
Further, the concept states that the measures in the field of migration policy will be: assistance to the voluntary resettlement of compatriots living abroad; attracting qualified foreign specialists, attracting young people from foreign countries (primarily from the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania and the Republic of Estonia) for study and internship in the Russian Federation with the possible provision of advantages in obtaining Russian citizenship upon graduation, creating conditions for the integration of immigrants into Russian society and the development of tolerance in relations between the local population and immigrants from other countries in order to prevent ethnic and confessional conflicts. It was not possible to attract qualified foreign specialists, a small number of compatriots from abroad returned, but instead of the declared attraction of qualified labor, labor migrants went to the country, who were called upon to solve the demographic problem.
As a result, when solving the demographic problem, the instrument of migration policy was used, which in turn only led to visible improvements in the demographic situation and created more serious problems associated with the immigration challenge of Russian identity and the integration of a new ethnic community into the multinational Russian people.
Solving the problems of demographic policy by attracting migrants and raising the standard of living of the population is not effective, since it completely ignores the fact that the modern demographic situation is caused by a spiritual crisis, especially of the Russian people. The crisis, which is already obvious, is of an ethno-selective nature, but this fact is hushed up, or not noticed, in any case, there is no adequate state political reaction to it.
Table 8. Peoples of Russia. Ranking by population (highest to lowest)
Note:
* Data on fertility, mortality and natural increase are estimated or not available.
** Peoples of the Republic of Dagestan
Color designation (column peoples) according to confessional characteristics.
Table 8 presents data on the demographic state of the peoples of Russia with a population of more than 100,000 people in 2010. Based on these data, the following conclusions can be drawn.
In general, such peoples as Chechens, Armenians, Avars, Ossetians, Dargins, Buryats, Yakuts, Kumyks, Ingush, Lezgins, Tuvinians, Karachais, Kalmyks, Laks, Cossacks, Tabasaran, Uzbeks, Tajiks do not need additional measures to stimulate the birth rate. , Balkars. Their number and share in the country's population has increased, the birth rate is above the national average, the mortality rate is below the national average, the number of births exceeds the number of deaths. These peoples have preserved their spiritual identity, did not accept the destructive values of the consumer society, and demonstrate a high potential for further demographic growth.
An effective state policy of stimulating the birth rate is carried out in relation to the Tatars, Bashkirs, Chuvashes, Udmurts, Kabardians and Komi. Although their number and share in the country's population declined, the peoples were able to achieve natural growth, the potential for their further demographic recovery is high fertility and low mortality. These peoples demonstrate solidarity, national self-identification, which is largely due to the presence of their own state formation within Russia. They also largely preserved traditional moral and spiritual values.
It is necessary to take additional measures to stimulate the birth rate for Russians, Mordovians and Adyghes. An analysis of the situation of the Russian people speaks of the electoral policy of reducing its number: this is the only people in Russia that does not have its own statehood - it is the Russian statehood, the birth rate remains below the average in Russia, the mortality rate exceeds the average, the size and proportion of the population continues to decline steadily. The borrowed values of the consumer society, decomposing the spiritual basis of the Russian people, the lack of cohesion, uniting national ideas and feelings of pride in their country lead to the loss of primordial spiritual guidelines, which finds its physical expression in the natural decline of the Russian population and its reduction.
But it is the Russian people that is the bond of all Russian peoples, Orthodoxy is the spiritual base that can unite different confessions on the principle of peaceful coexistence and harmonious development. Awareness of the described threat and adequate government policy are required.World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision // United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2013
The peoples are listed, the number of which, as of 2002, exceeded 100,000 people, and which did not have statehood outside the Russian Federation.
State policy of bringing Russia out of the demographic crisis / Monograph. V.I. Yakunin, S.S. Sulakshin, V.E. Baghdasaryan and others. Edited by S.S. Sulakshina. 2nd ed. - M .: ZAO “Publishing house“ Economics ”, Scientific expert, 2007. - 888 p.