Introduction

Speaking about the global problems of mankind, it is necessary to start with the demographic one, because economic, ecological, and social characteristics are associated with population growth, and the very prospects of mankind are associated with it.

Today there is an urgent need for public management of demographic processes. Precisely public, not just state.

In the first half of the 90s, our country entered the stage of, without exaggeration, one might say, a demographic catastrophe. This catastrophe is expressed primarily in the unprecedented low birth rate, in the very high divorce rate, in the relatively low life expectancy of the population, especially male and rural. Since 1992, the population of Russia has not been growing, but decreasing, and at a very fast pace. Some measures are needed to rectify the situation, some programs ... Until now, in all countries that have a demographic situation similar to ours and are trying to somehow fix it, they mainly use measures of material support for families with the help of various kinds of benefits and benefits. As history shows, the effectiveness of these measures is low. Deeper targeted changes in culture, in the entire way of life of society are needed in order to increase the prestige of family life, the prestige of a family with several children, which is very low today. This requires a special family policy, large-scale cultural programs, not just economic ones.

A brief history of the formation of demography

The word "demography" is formed from two Greek words: "demos" - people - and "grapho" - I write, that is, if this phrase is interpreted literally, it will mean "description of the people", or a description of the population. But demography from the very beginning of its history has never been limited only to description, its subject has always been wider and deeper. Unlike many other sciences, demography has a precise date of birth. It dates back to January 1662, when a book by the English merchant and captain, later major of the city militia, self-taught scientist John Graunt (1620-1674) was published in London, which had a long, as was then accepted, and very eloquent title: “Natural and Political Observations Listed in the Attached Table of Contents and Based on the Mortality Bulletins. In relation to government, religion, trade, growth, air, disease and other changes in the named city. Written by John Graunt, Citizen of London.

Graunt's thin book (90 pages in total) served as the conception of not one, but three sciences at once: statistics, sociology and demography, which then, over the course of three centuries, sorted out among themselves "kinship" relations - who is who is whom. But first, the direct "descendant" of Graunt's book was political arithmetic - a science that sought to study the quantitative (more precisely, statistical) laws of social phenomena and processes. Over the next centuries, outstanding scientists and public figures showed interest in the demographic aspects of society: economists and politicians, astronomers, physicists, mathematicians, biologists, physicians, clergymen, etc. Finally, in the 19th century. the name of science appeared, which was given to it by the Belgian scientist Altai Guillard (1799-1876), an entomologist by profession. In 1855 in Paris, he published the book "Elements of Human Statistics or Comparative Demography ...", in which he defined demography very broadly - as "the natural and social history of the human race" and as "mathematical knowledge of human populations, their general movement, their physical, civil and moral condition ”. Another outstanding scientist of the 19th century also broadly defined the range of interests of demography. - Jacques Bertillon (according to another transcription - Bertillon) (1851-1922, by the way, the grandson of A. Guillard). In the second half of the XIX century. prevailing view on demography as a synonym for statistics or as a section of statistics (population statistics). Subsequently, the formation of demography as a science proceeded in two directions. On the one hand, its subject was gradually narrowed down, more precisely, it was concretized, on the other hand, the circle of factors influencing this subject, which demography included in the field of its consideration, expanded. Gradually, it excluded from it the questions of economics, upbringing and education, social structure and mobility, public health, morality, etc., which in fact constituted the subject of research for other sciences: political economy, sociology, pedagogy, ethnography, medicine, etc. In the end by the mid-1960s. most experts began to limit the subject of demography to issues of the so-called natural movement of the population. The movement of the population is understood here not in physical, but in a more general form, as the change. There are two types of population movement: natural and mechanical (migration). In recent years, experts prefer to call the second of the two types of movement (change) of the population migration movement (this is the movement of the population across the territory) or, even more simply, population migration.

Demographic subject

The real goal of research for any science is to reveal the laws (cause-and-effect relationships) of development in the area of ​​being that is its subject. In turn, the knowledge of the laws of development is unthinkable without the preliminary establishment (identification) of regularities, i.e. objectively existing, repetitive, stable links between the phenomena of this development. It is in the regularities that the laws of development are manifested (although it is far from always possible to fix this manifestation and most often it is not easy. This is what any science does).

Now, finally, we can formulate the definition of the subject of demography as follows:

The subject of demography is the laws of natural reproduction of the population.

One could add to this: in their socio-historical conditioning. But it is possible not to add, because the laws of social development (and the laws of demographic development are an integral part of the laws of social development) cannot be cognized otherwise than in socio-historical conditioning. Such an addition is usually made as a safety net, in order to once again emphasize the predominantly social character of demographic processes and point to the place of demography among the social sciences.

Population is also understood specifically in demography. This is not any set of people, but a set of people, self-reproducing in the process of generational change. That is, it is a fairly large number of people with a rich structure necessary for the continuous renewal of this population. The ability to reproduce itself is the main quality that defines a population precisely as a demographic category, distinguishing it from other populations of people, for example, such as a production team, residents of a house, etc.

Demographic objectives

The main task of any science is the knowledge of the laws of development (movement) in a certain part of society and nature. But along with this, each science also has practical tasks. Demographics also have them. There are three of them: 1) the study of trends and factors of demographic processes; 2) development of demographic forecasts; 3) development of measures of demographic policy.

Revealing the true trends of demographic processes is not at all an easy task, as it might seem. You need to be able to assess the reliability of statistical information and select the appropriate indicators for each case (or design them). Different indicators, depending on their individual properties, can characterize the direction and intensity of the same process in completely different ways. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that demographic processes are highly inertial, develop very slowly (by human standards), and it is often more correct to keep track of time in demography not by years, but by generations. Therefore, it is extremely important to see in time in which direction the demographic processes are developing in order to timely begin to develop measures of demographic policy designed to prevent unfavorable development.

The study of the factors of demographic processes is of no less importance. Speaking about factors, most often they mean the causes of phenomena and processes. In dictionaries, most often, a fundamental distinction is not made between a factor and a cause. Meanwhile, in the languages ​​of different sciences, the use of these two most important concepts is different.

Statistics always deals with visible, measurable objects (phenomena) and processes in which cause-and-effect relationships are established not directly, but by their external indicators (indicators).

Such external indicators, signs of causes(traces of reasons) and are factors(factor signs). The factors in statistics are usually spoken of in cases where the role of a particular cause is not sufficiently defined or is generally only assumed. Thus, the factor is a statistically observed reflection of the cause. Unlike the cause, the factor is always observable (measurable). This is the difference between them. And this circumstance in no way diminishes the significance of the factor as an element, a step on the way to cognizing the cause.

Based on the study of trends in demographic processes and the cause-and-effect relationships of demographic processes with other social processes, demographers develop forecasts of future changes in the size and structure of the population. These forecasts are needed not only by demographers themselves to assess the likely nature of demographic development. Very few outside the narrow circle of demographers know that it is on demographic forecasts that the planning of the entire national economy is largely based: the production of goods and services, housing and communal construction, labor resources, training of specialists, schools and preschool institutions, roads and means of transport , military conscription contingent and so on. Demographic forecasts cover virtually the entire economic and military potential of the country. That is why in the recent past they were kept with seven seals. 3. And finally, on the basis of knowledge of the real tendencies of demographic processes, on the basis of establishing their causal relationships with other social processes, on the basis of demographic (as well as socio-economic, military-political and other) forecasts and plans, goals and measures are determined demographic and social policy.

Research methods in demography

Demography in the study of its subject - the natural reproduction of the population - uses various methods, the main of which can be combined by their nature into three groups: statistical, mathematical and sociological. Objects of observation in demography are not individual people or events, but groups of people and events grouped according to certain rules, homogeneous in some respect. Such aggregates are called statistical facts. Demography seeks to establish and measure objectively existing relationships between statistical facts related to its subject, using methods also developed in statistics, for example, methods of correlation and factor analysis. In demography, other statistical methods are also used, in particular, sampling and index methods, the method of averages, equalization methods, tabular and others.

The processes of population reproduction are interconnected by sometimes simple, sometimes rather complex quantitative relationships, which leads to the use of many mathematical methods for measuring some demographic characteristics from data on other characteristics. Today in demography, mathematical models of the population are widely used, with the help of which, on the basis of fragmentary and inaccurate data obtained by direct observation, it is possible to obtain a fairly complete and reliable idea of ​​the true state of population reproduction. In some cases, using mathematical models, you can get more reliable data than using direct statistical accounting. Finally, in the last quarter of a century (in our country, and in the West for more than half a century), sociological methods of studying the so-called demographic behavior, i.e. subjective attitudes, needs, opinions, plans, decision-making, actions in relation to the demographic aspects of the life of people, families, social groups.

Specialization within demography

With the development of demographic research, the expansion of the range of factors involved by demography to explain the interrelationships of demographic processes with other social processes, the methodological apparatus used by demography in its studies is also expanding. Collaboration with other sciences in the study of their subject, the involvement of specialists from other sciences for the same purposes (i.e., the study of the problems of natural reproduction of the population) led to the emergence of a number of its branches (or sections) within demography, united by a common subject, but differing in the circle the studied factors affecting this subject, and, accordingly, differing in research methods. In this, by the way, demography does not differ from the majority of natural and social sciences, except that in this respect it is far behind them.

Today we usually talk not about physics, mathematics, economics, medicine, etc., but about physical, economic, medical and other sciences. The same process of specialization occurs in sociology, in which such sections as the sociology of personality, labor, family, education and culture, religion, etc. are distinguished. Gone are the days when statistics was a universal science and the same scientists dealt with the problems of the population, and the problems of agriculture, industry, labor resources, culture, housing, trade, etc. Today, the study of these qualitatively different subjects of statistics has deepened so much, and research methods have expanded and become so complicated that specialists from different branches of the same science - statistics - often do not understand each other's language.

The same process of specialization occurs in demography. It is largely due to the fact that demographers are recruited from other sciences related to demography, since there is no special demographic education in our country yet (except for the training of a small number of demostatisticians and political economists with a “demographic bias.” such industries as demographic statistics (or otherwise - population statistics), economic, mathematical, historical, ethnic, sociological demography (this is probably not a complete list of such disciplines).

Demographic statistics- the oldest branch of demography (perhaps the entire system of statistical sciences). Its particular subject is the study of statistical patterns of population reproduction (we will not talk about natural population reproduction every time, but we will mean it). The task of demographic statistics includes the development of methods for statistical observation and measurement of demographic phenomena and processes, collection and primary processing of statistical materials on population reproduction.

A certain stage of development has reached mathematical demography, the subject of which is the development and application of mathematical methods for studying the interrelationships of demographic phenomena and processes, their modeling and forecasting. Demographic models include probabilistic tables of mortality, marriage, fertility, stationary and stable population models, simulation models of demographic processes, etc.

Historical demography studies the state and dynamics of demographic processes in the history of countries and peoples, as well as the history of the development of demographic science itself.

Adjacent to historical demography ethnic demography, studying ethnic characteristics (factors) of population reproduction. It is known that ethnic features of the way of life of peoples, customs, traditions, the structure of family relations have a significant impact on the birth rate (the number of children in the family), on the state of health and average life expectancy, especially on marriage and the strength of marriage.

Economic demography explores the economic factors of population reproduction. Economic factors here mean the entire set of economic conditions for the life of society, their influence on the rate of population growth, birth and death rates, marriage rates, on the formation and stability of the family, etc.

Rather quickly in the last quarter of a century, it has been developing sociological demography, studying the influence of sociological and socio-psychological factors on volitional, subjective actions of people in demographic processes.

A number of other demographic sectors could be named (medical, political, legal, military, etc.). On the other hand, in the sciences adjacent to demography, there already exist, although not always clearly defined, scientific branches of economic, sociological, historical and other sciences, for which the reproduction of the population, its various aspects act as factors affecting the processes that make up the subject of research. these sciences.

Demographic statistics

Demographic statistics, population statistics, an area of ​​statistics dealing with the application of statistical methods to the collection, processing, presentation and analysis of data characterizing the size, composition, location and movement of the population of a country, territory or its individual groups. Demographic statistics are also understood as the totality of numerical data on the population, and sometimes the area of ​​practice for the collection and processing of these data. The theoretical basis of Soviet demographic statistics is Marxist-Leninist demography. The methods developed by demographic statistics are based on the provisions of the theory of statistics. Demographic statistics is one of the most important tools for demographic analysis, and the information accumulated by it serves as the factual basis for many socio-economic studies of the population. Demographic statistics develops methods for collecting data on the population, current and prospective estimates of its size and composition, methods for measuring, comparing the intensity and studying the factors of demographic processes (fertility, mortality, nuptiality, breakdown of marriages, etc.). Historically, they are adjoined by other, non-statistical methods of demography, in particular, the construction of mathematical models of the population (stationary, stable, etc.), the analysis of the functions of population reproduction, presented in the form of demographic tables (fertility, mortality, nuptiality), the development of general characteristics of the mode of population reproduction , as well as models that simulate demographic processes.

Analysis of the patterns of population development involves measuring the intensity of demographic processes by calculating coefficients expressing the frequency of certain demographic events (births, deaths, marriages, divorces) in the population or its groups, or the probabilities of these events occurring. Since the intensity of these events depends on age, indicators for individual ages are especially important. A set of such indicators, calculated for a set of peers for different years of their life, characterizes the reproduction of a real generation. In practice, they often use age indicators for a conditional or hypothetical generation, which characterize the intensity of demographic processes in the same period, but refer to people of different generations. Indicators for certain age groups - children, able-bodied, childbearing - are of independent importance. The characteristics of the process of formation and disintegration of families are important.

Population records serve as the source of demographic statistics. Traditionally, a distinction is made between accounting for the state and accounting for the movement of the population. Information about the state of the population, that is, its size, distribution and distribution by social groups, sex, age, education, nationality, occupation, etc., is obtained during population censuses conducted at a certain time, centrally, according to a single program, which give a kind of snapshot of the population. Information about the natural movement of the population - about changes in its number and composition due to births and deaths (as well as about marriages and divorces) - provides a current account of these events, based on registration of acts of civil status. The mechanical movement of the population, or migration, is taken into account in censuses, or by registering a change of place of residence. Some countries maintain permanent lists or so-called population registers. In the USSR, one of their forms is the household books of the rural Soviet account. Information about the population and demographic processes is also obtained from regular or episodic sample surveys, which are especially important in countries where population census is not established. Sample surveys using the so-called anamnestic method, that is, by interviewing about events in the past, provide indicators for the real generation. The materials of these sources make it possible to obtain estimates of the size and age-sex composition of the population between censuses, as well as information necessary for analyzing demographic processes in the territorial context.

Key demographic indicators

All indicators can be divided into two main types: absolute and relative. Absolute indicators(or quantities) are simply the sums of demographic events: (phenomena) at a point in time (or in a time interval, most often in a year). These include, for example, the population at a certain date, the number of births, deaths, etc. per year, month, several years, etc. Absolute indicators are not informative in themselves, they are used in analytical work, usually as input data for the calculation. relative indicators... For comparative analysis, only relative indicators are used. They are called relative because they always represent a fraction, a ratio to the population that produces them.

Population indicators

The population size is a momentary indicator, that is, it always refers to an exact moment in time. The decline in population is called depopulation.

From the data on the number for a number of years, it is possible to calculate the absolute increase, the growth rate and the average population size.

Population S:

1) - data at the beginning and end of the year.

) at equal intervals (based on quarterly data) - this formula is average chronological.

) for unequal intervals is the weighted average formula. (3)

Vital indicators

Natural growth:

P - Y, (4)

Where P is the number of births; Y is the number of deaths.

The simplest indicators of the natural movement of the population - general coefficients - are so called because when calculating the number of demographic events: births, deaths, etc., they are correlated with the total population.

Total fertility rate:

, (5)

Today, the main factor on which the demographic future of our country depends entirely is the birth rate.

Overall mortality rate:

General rate of natural growth:

(7)

General vital rates are calculated with standard precision to tenths of a ppm.

Indicators of mechanical movement. Migration

Migration is the mechanical movement of the population across the territory of a country or between countries.

P - B, where P is the number of arrivals to this territory, (8)

B - the number of people who left this territory.

Total population growth:

, (9)

Where is the natural population growth; - migration (mechanical) population growth.

Mechanical gain coefficient:

(10)

where is the average annual population.

Overall growth rate:

(11)

Private demographic indicators

In addition to general indicators for characterizing the natural movement of the population, there are partial coefficients reflecting internal processes, birth, death.

Fertility in demography is a central issue.

Fertility rates

1. The special fertility rate (female fertility rate) is the ratio of the number of live births (per year) to the average (average annual) number of women aged 15 to 50 years.

(20)

There is a relationship between the special and general coefficients, which can be expressed as follows:

where W is the proportion of women aged 15 to 49 of the total population. Lack of a special coefficient depending on its value on the characteristics of the age structure. True, already on the characteristics of the age structure within the female contingent (from 15 to 50 years), and not the entire population.

Age-specific fertility rates.

The age ratio is the ratio of the annual number of births to mothers of age "x" to the number of all women of this age:

Age ratios are calculated for one-year and five-year age groups. The most detailed - one-year age coefficients provide the best opportunities for analyzing the state and dynamics of fertility.

Total fertility rate.

The total fertility rate is a summary, final indicator. It shows how many children, on average, one woman gives birth to during her life from 15 to 50 years, provided that throughout the reproductive period of the life of a given generation, the age-specific fertility rates in each age group remain unchanged at the level of the reference period.

(23)

where n is the length of the age interval (with the same length of the interval).

The advantages of this indicator:

· Its value does not depend on the characteristics of the age structure of the population and the female reproductive contingent;

· This indicator in one number makes it possible to assess the state of the birth rate from the standpoint of ensuring its reproduction of the population.

Mortality rates

Age-specific mortality rates.

The indicators are calculated separately for males and females and are the best for analyzing the status and trends of mortality. They are calculated for one-year and five-year age groups.

(23)

where is the age-specific mortality rate; - the number of deaths at age "x" in the calendar period (per year); - population size at age "x" in the middle of the billing period (average annual).

2. Infant mortality rate (up to 1 year):

where is the number of children who died under one year old, is the average number of children born this year. (24)

Child mortality rate:

where is the number of children who died before 1 year of age born in a given year; R- the number of births in this and last year. (25)

This coefficient reflects the health of the nation, the state of medicine.

4. Coefficient of viability (Pokrovsky):

where t is the period. (26)

Calculating Prospective Population

The simplest is the way:

,

where K = const. (27)

Calculation of the population size based on the projected time series of the population size: if there is a clear trend, then it can be extended for the future:

Calculation of the population size based on the mortality table.

The life table is a system of interrelated indicators based on the probability of surviving to the next year for each age group. Survival rates require a lot of statistical information.

The probability of surviving to age “x + 1” for those who survived to age “x” is defined as the ratio of the number of survivors to age “x + 1” to the number of survivors to age “x”:

A coefficient is calculated for each generation.

In this case, the calculations of the number are carried out separately for each generation. The total population in a given year is equal to the sum of all generations living in that year.

The main directions of demographic statistics

In demographic statistics (population statistics), the following main directions can be distinguished:

2.1. Determination of the population size and its location in the country;

3.2.2. Study of the composition of the population;

2.3. Study of population movement:

3.2.3.1. Natural movement;

3.2.3.2. Mechanical movement;

Determination of the population size and its location on the territory of the country

The main sources of information about the population are:

1. Population censuses conducted regularly, usually every 10 years;

2. Current statistical accounting of demographic events (births, deaths, marriages, divorces), carried out continuously;

3. Current registers (lists, card indexes) of the population, also functioning continuously;

4. Sample and special surveys. For example, microcensus conducted in the middle of the intercensus period. The first such work was carried out in 1985, the second in February 1994.

1. Definition of a population census given by UN experts:

« Population census is a general process of collecting, summarizing, evaluating, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data about the entire population living at a certain point in time in a country or a clearly limited part of it. "

Although it is traditionally called the population census (or demographic census), in fact, the census shows a number of population structures that go beyond the boundaries of the subject of demography (ethnic and socio-class structure, population distribution by territory and migration, population distribution by sectors of the national economy and by occupation, unemployment, position in employment, etc.) To conduct the census, a special subdivision is created in the state statistics bodies. In his function, he leads the methodological and technical preparation of the census, the organization of its direct implementation, the processing of the results and their publication. In our country, such a subdivision is the Board of Censuses and Surveys of the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics.

Population censuses examine the following questions:

· The number and distribution of the population across the country, by urban and rural types of population, population migration;

· Structure of the population by sex, age, marital status and marital status;

· Structure of the population by nationality, native and spoken language, by citizenship;

· Distribution of the population by level of education, by sources of livelihood, by branches of the national economy, by occupation and position in occupation;

· The number and structure of families for a whole range of social characteristics;

· Fertility;

· Housing conditions of the population.

To avoid omissions and double counting, in censuses, categories of people are distinguished, depending on the nature of their residence in a given territory:

The actual population is the part of the population that is at the time of registration in a given settlement, regardless of the place of permanent residence.

Permanent population - the part of the population that permanently resides in a given settlement, regardless of its actual location at the time of registration.

Temporarily absent - persons who, at the time of registration, were temporarily absent from their place of permanent residence (for a period not exceeding 6 months).

Temporarily present - persons who were temporarily in this locality at the time of registration (for a period not exceeding 6 months).

Present population = Resident population + Temporarily present - Temporarily absent

Permanent population = Present population - Temporarily present + Temporarily absent

In our country, the number of both the present and the permanent population is taken into account. When planning the construction of housing, schools, hospitals, etc. proceed from the size of the resident population, and when ensuring the work of urban transport, trade enterprises - from the size of the existing population.

In the Russian Federation, the legal basis for conducting population censuses is government decrees that are specially adopted upon the submission of statistical agencies some time before each census, sometimes several years, sometimes months.

The last census took place in October 2010.

2. Routine registration of vital events- births, deaths, marriages, divorces - based on the registration of these events. When registering demographic events, records of acts of civil status in special books are made in two copies, one is stored in the archive, and the second is transferred to the statistical authorities for processing and summarizing the information contained in it. However, this information, even in summary form, does not characterize the intensity of demographic processes. The volume of demographic events depends on the population that produces these events. The aggregates of demographic processes must be compared with the corresponding aggregates of the population (the number of births - with the number of women of a certain age and marital status, the number of deaths - with the population of the corresponding sex, age, nationality, etc.). Data on the size and composition of the population are given by the censuses. That. The data of the current accounting of demographic events form an inseparable unity with the data of the population censuses.

... Current registers(lists, card indexes) of the population are kept by various administrative state bodies. These filing cabinets are created to perform specific tasks and usually cover not the entire population, but some of its groups (residents of microdistricts, categories subject to social care, etc.). All of these registers contain the legal population, which may not completely coincide with the actual population (real or permanent, as defined in the population censuses). Therefore, data from population lists are of limited use.

4. Sample and special surveys allow, at a lower cost than censuses, to conduct a study of the problem of interest in a small, selected group of population according to special rules, so that the results obtained can then be extended to the entire population.

The population size is a momentary indicator, that is, it always refers to an exact moment in time. This is not to say: the population in such and such a year. This is wrong because the population changes continuously throughout the year. In statistical directories, the population is usually given either on January 1 (or "at the beginning of the year", which means the same), or on July 1 (or "in the middle of the year"), or on December 31 (or "at the end of the year" ).

The resident population of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2010 was 141.9 million people, of which 103.7 million people (73%) are urban dwellers, and 38.2 million people (27%) are rural residents. The number of Russians in 2009 increased by 10.5 thousand people, or by 0.01%.

The increase in the number of residents of Russia has been observed for the first time since 1994 (in 2008, the population decreased by 104.9 thousand people, or 0.07%) and was formed both due to a significantly reduced natural decline and as a result of an increased migration growth. ... For 6 months of 2010 the population of Russia decreased by 52.3 thousand people, or 0.04% (in January-June 2009, the reduction in the number of Russians was 50.6 thousand people, or 0.04%).

In 2009, the population decreased in 56 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The most noticeable reduction took place in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (by 1.9%), the Pskov and Magadan regions (by 1.1%). The number of residents in the Smolensk, Novgorod, Tula and Tambov regions, the republics of Komi and Mordovia decreased by 0.8%; by 0.7% - in the Kirov, Sakhalin, Murmansk, Vladimir and Tver regions; by 0.6% -0.5% - in Ivanovo, Arkhangelsk, Kursk, Bryansk, Kostroma, Ryazan, Kurgan, Oryol, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanovsk, Penza, Lipetsk regions and the Republic of Karelia.

In 27 constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2009, there was an increase in the number of residents (in 2008 - in 24, 2007 - in 23, 2006 - in 14 constituent entities of the Russian Federation).

Changes in the population in 2009 had practically no effect on the settlement structure. More than a quarter (26%) of Russians live in the Central Federal District, where the population density is highest at 57 people per sq. km. (on average in Russia, the population density is 8.3 people per 1 sq. km.). The North Caucasian Federal District is almost also densely populated, with a population density of 54 people per 1 sq. Km. The most sparsely populated by January 1, 2010 were the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Kamchatka Territory, Magadan Region, Nenets, Chukotka and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, where the population density was less than 1 person per 1 sq. km.

Study of the composition of the population

The age structure of the population plays an active role in all social processes and, of course, in demographic ones as well. But besides, it has an active influence on the value of all demographic indicators. So, with a young age structure - i.e. with a relatively high percentage of young people in the population, - if other conditions are equal, the population will have a high marriage and birth rate and a low mortality rate (since, quite naturally, young people are less likely to get sick and even less likely to die). In turn, demographic processes have a strong impact on the age structure of the population. Thus, the decline in the birth rate has among its consequences the so-called demographic aging of the population, i.e. an increase in the composition of the population of its elderly part. Thus, the age structure of the population is in close interaction with all demographic processes. One of the important consequences of this interaction is that the age structure accumulates and stores a stock of demographic inertia, the potential for population growth, due to which the movement of the population (with a positive or negative charge) continues for a long time after the driving forces of this movement have already dried up. or changed their direction to the opposite. Therefore, the influence of the age structure is always taken into account when analyzing the dynamics of demographic processes and, using special methods, is isolated from the combined action of many factors affecting the indicators. demography statistics population russian

The age structure of the Russian population is strongly distorted by the historical upheavals of the past. For this reason, even in similar modern periods of evolutionary development, many years after the shocks, various "floors" of the age pyramid - certain age groups - experience multidirectional changes. This multidirectionality turns out to be a circumstance that is far from indifferent from a demographic, economic or social point of view. The age composition of the Russian population is characterized by a significant gender disparity. As of January 1, 2010, the number of men amounted to 65.6 million people, women - 76.3 million people (10.7 million people, or 16.2% more). The sex ratio over the past year has not changed: by the beginning of 2010, there were 1162 women per 1000 men. The numerical excess of women over men in the population is observed from the age of 29 and increases with age. This unfavorable ratio has developed due to the continuing high level of premature mortality in men. In the Novgorod, Ivanovo, Tula, Yaroslavl, Tver, Vladimir, Smolensk, Nizhny Novgorod regions, St. Petersburg, there are 1246-1221 women per 1000 men. Only in the Kamchatka Territory and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug there are fewer women: there are 986-949 women per 1000 men. According to international criteria, a population is considered old if the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the total population exceeds 7%. Currently, almost every eighth Russian, i.e. 12.9% of the country's residents are aged 65 or over. The process of demographic aging of the population is much more characteristic of women. In the structure of the population of the above-mentioned ages, women make up more than two thirds (68.7%). The average age of the country's residents is 38.9 years (in 2009 - 38.8 years), men, respectively, 36.2 years (36.1), women - 41.2 years (41.1). The average age of the population over 40 years is noted in 28 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, it is the highest in the regions of the European part of Russia: in Tula, Ryazan, Tambov, Voronezh, Pskov, Tver, Penza, years. Petersburg and Moscow - 42.2 - 41.1 years. Every fifth resident of Russia (30.7 million people as of January 1, 2010) is of retirement age. The number of children and adolescents under 16 years of age is 7.9 million people, or 25.6% less than those over working age. The preponderance of older people takes place in 62 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the largest: in the Tula region and St. Petersburg - 2 times, Ryazan and Voronezh regions - 1.9 times, Tambov, Leningrad, Ivanovo, Penza, Pskov, Yaroslavl regions, Moscow - 1.8 times.

The number of the population aged 0-15 years has been decreasing for 18 years (1990-2007). In 2008, due to an increase in the number of births, the number of births in this age group increased slightly - by 44 thousand, or 0.2%, in 2009 - by 313 thousand, or 1.4%. The lowest share of children aged 0-15 years in the total population is observed in Moscow and Saint Petersburg - 13.0-12.9% (in Russia as a whole - 16.1%). The population of working age, compared with the beginning of 2009, decreased by 0.9 million or 1.0% (in 2008 by 0.4 million or 0.5%) and amounted to the beginning of 2010. 88.4 million people. The demographic load indicator increased to 606 people per 1000 working age population (in 2009 - 590 respectively), incl. load by children - 259 (253), and people of retirement age - 347 (337).

The sex ratio in the population is an important factor in nuptiality (i.e. the process of marriage) and the formation of the family structure of the population. In demography, two types of relative indicators are used to characterize the sex ratio. The first type is the percentage of the population of a particular gender in the total population. The second type of sex ratio indicator is the correlation of the population of one sex with the population of the opposite sex with subsequent multiplication of the quotient by 1000. The sex structure of the population is influenced by three main factors: 1) the sex ratio among newborns (biological constant); 2) sex differences in mortality; 3) sex differences in the intensity of population migration.

Study of population movement

Population movements can have different effects on certain areas, depending on the economic situation. However, most of the population movement is associated with economic growth due to an increase in the labor force and increased demand for goods and services. This movement, however, comes in the form of both immigration and emigration. There are two types of movement:

natural;

mechanical (migration);

Natural movement of the population

Natural movement of the population is a generalized name for the totality of births and deaths that change the population in the so-called natural way. The natural movement of the population also includes marriages and divorces; although they do not directly change the population size, they are counted in the same order as birth and death.

A decrease in the rate of depopulation, and then a slight increase in the population in 2009, was facilitated by a reduction in the natural decline in the population. In 2009, the natural decline was 249 thousand people, this is the lowest figure in the last 16 years.

Russia is considered to be one of the countries with the highest mortality rates. It is characterized by one of the largest gender gaps in life expectancy at birth (11.9 years in 2009), which is a consequence of the high mortality rate among men of working age. Only in the last four years has the situation started to improve somewhat. The indicator of life expectancy at birth in 2009 compared to 2006 increased for men by 2.4 years, for women - by 1.4 years. The increase in life expectancy in men was mainly due to a decrease in mortality in the working age, in women - in the working age and older than the working age.

The main problems of the demographic development of Russia remain high mortality from external causes and diseases of the circulatory system. Alcohol abuse has a big impact on this. From causes directly related to alcohol (alcoholic cardiomyopathy, accidental alcohol poisoning, alcoholic liver disease, chronic alcoholism, alcoholic psychoses, degeneration of the nervous system caused by alcohol, chronic pancreatitis of alcoholic etiology) in 2009, 50.5 thousand men died and 18, 1 thousand women. However, its effect on mortality from other causes is significantly higher. Excessive alcohol consumption is most obviously associated with high mortality from external causes of death, however, the connection can also be traced when it comes to premature mortality from many diseases, in the etiology of which the exogenous component is artificially increased.

The highest indicators of life expectancy remain in the republics of the North Caucasus and Moscow. In these regions, the life expectancy at birth for men in 2009 exceeded 69 years, for women - 77 years. The lowest life expectancy for both men and women is noted in the Republic of Tyva and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (for men it does not reach 55 years, for women - 66 years).

A decrease in mortality occurred in all main classes of causes of death, except for neoplasms, and therefore, in the structure of mortality, this class confidently rose to second place after diseases of the circulatory system, which until 2006 was retained by external causes of death (see Table 3).

Table 3. Mortality rates of the populationby main classes of causes of death

	Thousand people				Share (%) in the total number of deaths
Total dead
including from:
diseases of the circulatory system
neoplasms
external causes of death
respiratory diseases
diseases of the digestive system
other diseases

Among all the deaths, almost 30% are people of working age (more than 560 thousand people a year), of which 80% are men. The first place among the causes of death of the working-age population is occupied by the causes associated with diseases of the circulatory system, external causes - in second. In terms of mortality from external causes, suicides, traffic injuries, murders, and alcohol poisoning are distinguished. They account for more than 50% of deaths from all external causes of death. In 2009, the infant mortality rate continued to decline. The infant mortality rate in 2009 dropped to 8.1 deaths under 1 year of age per 1000 live births. Fertility rates show positive dynamics in the last intercensal period. In 2009, 1.8 million children were born, which is 47.8 thousand people (3%) more than in 2008. The birth rate in Russia has been growing since 2000, but its increase in 2007-2009. was especially significant and, what is especially important, covered mainly middle and older age groups of mothers who make the main contribution to the birth of second and subsequent children. In 2009, a sample survey "Family and Fertility" was conducted in 30 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The sample consisted of 2,000 respondents. A quarter of the women surveyed who gave birth to their second child in 2007-2009 noted that this was in one way or another influenced by the beginning of the implementation of demographic policy measures. The total fertility rate in 2009 was 1.5 children per woman of reproductive age. In the Republic of Altai, the Republic of Tyva and the Chechen Republic, the total fertility rate exceeds the value required for simple reproduction of the population (2.3 - 3.4). The lowest birth rate is observed in the Leningrad region (less than 1.2).

In the total number of births, the proportion of those born to mothers who were not in a registered marriage has slightly decreased (from 28.0% in 2007 to 26.1% in 2009).

Marriages and divorces also belong to the natural movement.

Marriage is the process of forming married (married) couples, which includes both first and repeated marriages. Divorce is the process of the dissolution of married couples due to the dissolution of marriage (divorce).

In the past 2009, according to Rosstat, more than 1 million rubles were recorded in Russia. 200 thousand marriages, including in Moscow - 92322 marriages, in St. Petersburg - 49121 marriages. The increase in the number of marriages relative to 2008 is 10% in Moscow and 5% in St. Petersburg. The most active age for marriage is between 25 and 34 years old. At this time, almost half of all marriages take place. Unfortunately, we state that the same picture is observed in the area of ​​divorce. It should be noted that in the period under review, from 2000 to 2009, a steady tendency towards an increase in the number of registered marriages is noticeable in cities separately and in the country as a whole. In contrast to St. Petersburg, where the trend line is clearly traced upward, the Moscow indicators are increasing in waves, every second year. In general, compared to 2000, the number of marriages in Moscow, as well as in Russia, increased by 36%, and in St. Petersburg - by 50%. In 2008, Moscow set a kind of record. If in 2007 residents of the capital created a family with citizens of 102 countries, then in 2008 already with citizens of 106 countries. Among non-CIS countries, the leaders are Turkey, Germany, the USA, Israel and Great Britain. Well, among the CIS countries, Ukraine is in first place, with its citizens about 4,000 marriages. In total, 12,000 international marriages were concluded in Moscow in 2008. With regard to divorces, the figure in the country as a whole, unfortunately, is steadily growing. In the two capitals, on the contrary, it is kept at about the same level. The ratio between marriages and divorces is within 80%, namely, in the country as a whole, the indicator is 70, in St. Petersburg - 80, in Moscow, marriages are registered almost 2 times more than divorces.

Marriages

		Per 1000 population

Divorces

Mechanical movement of the population (migration)

A great impact on the size, composition and distribution of the population in individual countries and around the world is exerted by its movements, called population migrations. The main reason for migrations is economic, but they are also caused by political, national, religious, environmental and other reasons.

Population migration is the movement of people across the boundaries of a territory (country, region, oblast, district, etc.) associated with a change of place of residence.

Internal migrations of the population are the dominant component in the migration processes of the regions of the country, their volumes and directions have a significant impact on the redistribution of the population of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Movements within the country associated with a change of place of residence accounted for 85% of the total migration turnover in 2009. Resettlement from one constituent entity of the Russian Federation to another accounts for 45% of internal Russian migrations.

According to the current census data after the All-Russian Population Census (for 2003-2009), almost 15 million people, or every tenth inhabitant of Russia, took part in internal Russian migrations.

In 2001-2008. movement within the country has practically stabilized at the level of 1.9 - 2 million people. However, in 2009, the number of migrants who changed their place of residence within the country decreased in comparison with 2008 by 227 thousand people, or by 12%, and amounted to 1.7 million people. In 2008, 63.6 thousand people (3.2%) less participated in internal migration than in 2007 (in 2007 - 62.3 thousand people or 3.2% more, than in 2006).

In internal migrations, the flow is oriented from the north and east to the center. In contrast to the last intercensal period, when the southwestern territories were also attractive for the inhabitants of Russia, in the last 8 years a positive migration increase has developed in the Northwestern Federal District. Two districts form migration poles - the Center, which draws the population from the entire territory of the country, and the Far East, which gives the population to all regions. In 2003-2009. the Central District accounted for 86% of the population redistributed between the districts. At the same time, Moscow and the Moscow Region (93%) accumulate almost all of the positive migration gain received by the Okrug in internal Russian migrations. Siberia and the Far East have lost more than 350 thousand of their inhabitants, which is more than half (52%) of the population redistributed between the districts. Almost 70% of the total population decline in the Far Eastern Federal District and 40% in the Siberian Federal District was due to the migration exchange of population between the districts.

External migration in 2009 accounted for only 15% of the total migration turnover, but it is this that influences the change in the population of Russia as a whole.

The volume of international migration recorded in statistics is heavily influenced by changes in legislation. In particular, the sharp decline in the number of arrivals in 2001 is apparently due to the imposed restrictions on the admission of citizens of the CIS countries. In subsequent years, all citizens of Russia who arrived for permanent residence from outside the country and foreign citizens and stateless persons who received a residence permit were included in the statistics.

This situation led to the minimization of the flows of registered immigrants - in 2004 their number was the smallest in the last 50 years. Since the beginning of 2007, foreign citizens and stateless persons who have received a temporary residence permit for the first time have been included in the statistics. As a result, the number of immigrants increased by more than 100 thousand people, or by 54%. At the same time, both flows from the CIS countries (by 96.7 thousand people) and from non-CIS countries (by 3.9 thousand people) increased by 1.5 times.

Among all immigrants in 2009, about 93% (261.5 thousand people) were former residents of the CIS countries, of which almost half were immigrants from Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (respectively 45.9 thousand people, 42.5 thousand and 38.8 thousand people).

The most attractive for such immigrants in 2009 were the Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts. Among those who arrived from outside Russia for permanent residence in the regions of these districts - 99% are from the countries - members of the CIS. The North Caucasian and Southern Federal Districts are the most attractive for immigrants from far abroad, where their share is 12.6% and 7.8%, respectively. It should be borne in mind that a significant flow of immigrants to these federal districts are those who arrived from Georgia, which is currently not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Recorded emigration has been declining annually for two decades. At the same time, its structure by country of intended residence is changing significantly. In the early 1990s, the number of those who left for the CIS countries exceeded the number of those who left for non-CIS countries by 3-5 times, in 2001-2005. their number was practically the same, since 2006 there were 2 times more emigrants to the CIS countries than to other foreign countries.

Replacement of natural population decline by migration growth

The contribution of the migration component to population growth has been steadily decreasing almost until 2003. An increase in migration growth in subsequent years, along with a decrease in natural decline, led to a slowdown in the rate of population decline. In 2008, the natural decline was by 71.0% replaced by migration gain (in 2007 - by 54.9%, in 2006 - by 22.5%). In 2009, the decline in natural decline became a determining component of the country's population growth.

Table 1. Components of population change (thousand people)

	Total gain			Natural growth			Migration gain
		January June			January June			January June
Russian Federation
federal districts
Central
Northwestern
North Caucasian
Privolzhsky
Ural
Siberian
Far Eastern

Table 2. Grouping of constituent entities of the Russian Federation according to the degree of influence of indicators of natural movement and migration on population change in 2009

	Number of subjects in the group	Subjects of the Russian Federation included in the group
The number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in which the population has decreased
Total
including due to:
natural decline and migration outflow of the population		Republic of Karelia, Komi, Mari El, Mordovia; Altai, Perm and Primorsky Territories; Amur, Arkhangelsk, Volgograd, Kirov, Kostroma, Kurgan, Magadan, Murmansk, Omsk, Pskov, Sakhalin, Ulyanovsk regions; Jewish Autonomous Region.
excess of natural loss over migration gain		Chuvash Republic; Khabarovsk region; Bryansk, Vladimir, Vologda, Voronezh, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Kemerovo, Kursk, Leningrad, Lipetsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Novgorod, Oryol, Penza, Rostov, Ryazan, Samara, Saratov, Sverdlovsk, Smolensk, Tambov, Tverlyabinsk, Tula and Tula regions ;
excess of migration outflow over natural growth		Republics of Kalmykia, Karachay-Cherkess, Sakha (Yakutia), North Ossetia - Alania and Udmurt; Trans-Baikal and Kamchatka Territories; Irkutsk region; Chukotka Autonomous District
The number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in which the population has increased
Total
including due to:
natural and migratory growth		Republics of Bashkortostan, Ingushetia and Khakassia; Krasnoyarsk region; Astrakhan, Tomsk and Tyumen regions; Nenets and Khanty-Mansiysk - Yugra Autonomous Okrugs
excess of natural increase over migration outflow		Republics of Altai, Buryatia, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkarian, Tyva and Chechen; Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District
exceeding the migration gain over natural loss		Republics of Adygea and Tatarstan; Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories; Belgorod, Kaliningrad, Moscow, Novosibirsk and Orenburg regions; Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

Research methods used in demographic statistics

Method in the most general sense means a way to achieve a goal, to regulate activities. The method of concrete science is a set of methods of theoretical and practical knowledge of reality. For an independent science, it is necessary not only to have a subject of research that is special from other sciences, but also to have its own methods of studying this subject. The set of research methods used in any science is methodology this science.

Since population statistics are sectoral statistics, statistical methodology serves as the basis for its methodology.

The most important method included in the statistical methodology - obtaining information about the studied processes and phenomena - statistical observation... It serves as the basis for collecting data both in current statistics and during censuses, monographic and sample studies of the population. Here, the full use of the provisions of theoretical statistics on the establishment of the object of the unit of observation, the introduction of the concepts of the date and time of registration, the program, organizational issues of observation, systematization and publication of its results. Statistical methodology also includes the principle of the independence of assigning each person to be rewritten to a certain group - the principle of self-determination.

The next stage in the statistical study of socio-economic phenomena is to determine their structure, i.e. selection of parts and elements that make up the totality. We are talking about the method of groupings and classifications, which are called typological and structural in population statistics.

To understand the structure of the population, it is necessary, first of all, to identify the attribute of grouping and classification. Any sign that has been observed can also serve as a grouping one. For example, on the question of the attitude towards the person who is the first to be recorded on the census form, it is possible to determine the structure of the census population, where it seems likely to distinguish a significant number of groups. This feature is attributive, therefore, when developing census forms based on it, it is necessary to compile in advance a list of classifications necessary for analysis (groupings by attributive features). When classifications with a large number of attribute records are drawn up, assignment to certain groups is justified in advance. So, according to their occupation, the population is divided into several thousand species, which statistics bring into certain classes, which is recorded in the so-called vocabulary of occupations.

When studying the structure by quantitative characteristics, it becomes possible to use such statistical generalized indicators as mean, mode and median, distance measures or indicators of variation to characterize different parameters of the population. The considered structures of phenomena serve as the basis for studying the connection in them. In the theory of statistics, functional and statistical relationships are distinguished. The study of the latter is impossible without dividing the population into groups and then comparing the value of the effective trait.

Grouping on a factorial basis and comparison with changes in the effective attribute allows you to establish the direction of the relationship: direct or reverse, as well as give an idea of ​​its form broken regression... These groupings allow you to build a system of equations necessary to find parameters of the regression equation and determining the tightness of the relationship by calculating the correlation coefficients. Groupings and classifications serve as the basis for the use of analysis of variance of relationships between indicators of population movement and the factors that cause them.

Statistical methods are widely used in the study of the population. dynamics research, graphic study of phenomena, index, selective and balance... We can say that population statistics use the entire arsenal of statistical methods and examples to study their object. In addition, methods developed only for the study of the population are applied. These are the methods real generation (cohorts) and conditional generation... The first allows you to consider changes in the natural movement of peers (born in the same year) - longitudinal analysis; the second examines the natural movement of peers (living at the same time) - a cross-sectional analysis.

It is interesting to use averages and indices when taking into account the peculiarities and comparing the processes occurring in the population, when the conditions for comparing data are not equal. Using different weighting when calculating the generalizing average values, a standardization method has been developed that makes it possible to eliminate the influence of different age characteristics of the population.

Probability theory, as a mathematical science, studies the properties of the objective world using abstractions, the essence of which consists in a complete abstraction from the qualitative determinateness and in highlighting their quantitative side. Abstraction is a process of mental abstraction from many aspects of the properties of objects and at the same time the process of isolating, isolating any aspects of interest to us, properties and relations of the objects under study. The use of abstract mathematical methods in population statistics makes it possible statistical modeling processes occurring in the population. The need for modeling arises when it is impossible to study the object itself.

The largest number of models used in population statistics have been developed to characterize its dynamics. Among them, exponential and logistic stand out. Of particular importance in forecasting the population for future periods are models of a stationary and stable population, which determine the type of population that has developed in these conditions.

If the construction of exponential and logistic models of the population uses data on the dynamics of the absolute population for the past period, then the models of the stationary and stable population are based on the characteristics of the intensity of its development.

So, the statistical methodology of studying the population has at its disposal a number of methods of the general theory of statistics, mathematical methods and special methods developed in the statistics of the population itself.

Population statistics, using the methods discussed above, develops a system of generalizing indicators, indicates the necessary information, methods for calculating them, the cognitive capabilities of these indicators, conditions of use, recording procedure and meaningful interpretation.

The future of Russian demographic statistics after the 2010 census

Our main problem - the loss of information as a result of the adoption in 1997 of the Federal Law "On Acts of Civil Status" has been repeatedly spoken of. But for current population statistics, this problem is far from the only one. As you know, census data are the basis for further assessment of the size and age composition of the population in the intercensal period. The inclusion of the number of conscripts during the 2002 census in the population of the territories where the military unit is deployed, and not the territories of conscription (as was the case in the 1989 census), led to the emergence of the so-called ageless special contingent in the age structure of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Since the migration registration does not reflect the conscription and subsequent demobilization, with the current assessment of the age composition, it is necessary to imitate the migration movement of conscripts in order to prevent their artificial aging in the territory of the deployment of military units. When making calculations at the sub-regional level, this procedure becomes even more complicated, since it requires a sufficiently qualified expert work. This leads to an unsatisfactory quality of the estimation of the age composition of the population in the intercensal period.

The data on the population size obtained in the population censuses are the denominator for calculating the main demographic characteristics of the population, therefore their quality also affects the entire subsequent accounting of the main parameters of population reproduction. For some constituent entities of the Russian Federation, this problem is quite acute. There were many publications that questioned the results of the 2002 All-Russian Population Census for individual republics of the North Caucasus. On the basis of comparison with the data of the 1989 census, researchers showed an implausible increase in the number of some peoples of the North Caucasus, which made one think about its artificial overestimation during the last population census. It remains to be hoped that demographers will have fewer comments on the quality of the data for the upcoming 2010 All-Russian Population Census.

This is especially important for the current population census, since the results of the 2010 All-Russian Population Census will make it possible to clarify the main indicators of fertility, mortality and migration. The problem of underestimating the number of deaths, which existed in the days of the Soviet Union, is now only exacerbated. According to its position, Rosstat does not have the right to check the completeness of the registration of the dead, as it was in Soviet times, when every year teams of specialists went to the territory and checked the lists of the dead in hospitals, registry offices and cemeteries. Now we can judge about the underestimation only by the data of the population census. For example, according to the results of the 2002 All-Russian Population Census and the current estimate, the difference in the size of the population aged 80 and over was 7%. (An example for the oldest age group is given specifically to show that these are not problems of migration registration, but the underestimation of mortality in the intercensal period.)

In some constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the belated registration of births and deaths is growing, which is not included in the current population count. For example, taking into account the late registration, the rate of natural decline in the population of the Astrakhan region would be 10% lower.

Rosstat does not hide the fact that the transition to international criteria for accounting for infant mortality in Russia, in fact, has remained purely nominal. We indicate this in the methodological explanations of the Demographic Yearbook of Russia. But here the problem can get off the ground. The Ministry of Health and Social Development of Russia plans from 2012 to begin measures to switch to the new rules for registering children born at a gestation period of 22 weeks and above with low body weight (from 500 grams).

There is a problem of improving the methodology of accounting for demographic events in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Currently, if the place of permanent residence of the deceased does not coincide with the place of registration of his death and is located outside the given subject of the Russian Federation, then in the state statistics bodies it is conditionally taken as the location of the registry office that registered the death. The leaders of individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation believe that this approach overestimates mortality rates on their territory. In reality, the number of such deceased includes not only persons temporarily staying in this territory, but also persons registered at the place of stay for one year or more, that is, according to the census methodology, referring to the permanent population of the subject of the Russian Federation, on the territory whose death occurred.

A difficult situation is developing with the registration of births. The most striking example is a village in the Magadan Region, where the total fertility rate is more than three times higher than the national average. The explanation is simple. Women are not removed from registration in rural areas in the hope of obtaining housing under the resettlement program. During the population census, they passed as urban residents, but the children born are registered at the place of their permanent registration in the countryside. Therefore, when developing data, we have a situation where children born are counted in the rural population, and their mothers are counted in the urban population.

To address all these issues, it is necessary to conduct a double development of data in a pilot mode (at the place of the event and the place of permanent residence) in order to make a decision on the advisability of changing the methodology for recording demographic events. The problem is the lack of funding for this work.

As for marriages and divorces, the Department of Population and Health Statistics of Rosstat plans, after the introduction of new complexes for electronic processing of demographic data into commercial operation in 2011, to return their expanded development in the amount of information contained in civil status records. However, this issue also depends on the allocation of funding, since the processing of demographic statistics is a rather laborious work.

And the last problem is the problem of training specialists dealing with demography issues in the territorial bodies of state statistics. Their qualifications are poor. Methodological aids and distance learning forms are ineffective, while full-time forms of training specialists of current population registration have not been available for 20 years due to lack of funding.

So there are more than enough problems. In 2006, the Federal Target Program for the Development of the State Statistics System in 2007-2011 was adopted, but, probably, the only branch of statistics that was not included in it is population statistics.

So, speaking in terms of demographic forecasting, there is only one forecast option - pessimistic, since no prerequisites for a radical improvement in the situation are currently being observed.

Conclusion

The severity of demographic problems in Russia is generally recognized. Representatives of the Russian government at various levels are increasingly expressing concern about the current situation and their determination to reverse unfavorable trends and lead the country out of the “demographic crisis”. Meanwhile, the current state of Russian demographic statistics - the main tool for diagnosing and assessing the effectiveness of measures taken - does not at all correspond to the tasks facing the country and cannot be described otherwise than as unfavorable. The disadvantage has a variety of manifestations - from the poverty of the available information to the low statistical culture of government officials and other users of demographic statistics, who often simply do not understand the meaning of the indicators they use. It would seem that the correct or incorrect understanding of statistical indicators by those who use them should not affect the quality of these indicators, but in reality, of course, this is not the case. Low statistical culture of a society means that there is no demand for high-quality statistics, and hence all its troubles.

List of used literature

1. Borisov V.A. Demography, M., 2002.

2. Gundarov I.A. Demographic catastrophe in Russia: causes, coping mechanism, M., 2001.

3. Social statistics: Textbook / Ed. I. I. Eliseeva. - M., 1997.

4. Population statistics with the basics of demography: Textbook / GS Kildishev et al., M., 1999.

5. Population of Russia 2007, Fifteenth Annual Demographic Report, A. G. Vishnevsky, M., 2009.

6. Zayonchkovskaya J. Demographic situation and resettlement. M., 2001

7. Demographic encyclopedic dictionary. - M., 1985.

8. Journal "Questions of Statistics" 2010, No. 6.

In its most general form, demography can be defined as the science of population. However, this general definition is not enough to understand what demography is, what are its own, different from other sciences, object and subject.

Russian science has also developed a broad and narrow understanding of demography. Some scientists broadly (albeit to varying degrees) interpret the subject of demography, seeing in it the science of population and including in it a very wide range of issues. This is due to the historically descriptive roots of demography, as discussed above. Domestic demography textbooks and scientific monographs, especially those published in the 60s - 80s. of the last century, in fact, they consider it in a traditionally broad sense, including in its subject not only population reproduction, but also many other issues. Demography as a science does not disregard those aspects that are associated with the concepts of "people", "nation" or "society". For example, it distinguishes the concept of a legal population ... from the concept of a present population ... and some other categories of the population. However, a significant difference between demography, which uses the concept of "population", from other social sciences, operating with the concepts of "people", "people", is that demography deals with the study of quantitative patterns and their characteristics: what is the population size, how many people of certain professions, how many there are people of one level or another. At the same time, for example, the question of the social status of the population associated with this occupation has not been considered by demography until recently. Now she pays some attention to the qualitative characteristics of the population.

Supporters of a narrow interpretation of population reproduction and the subject of demography believe that only the processes of the so-called. natural movement of the population, i.e. fertility and mortality, as well as nuptiality and divorce rates associated with them most closely and directly.

Sex, age, marriage and family structure are directly included in the subject of demography, while all others act (or can act) only as exogenous variables (factors) of demographic processes, which affect them (and the reproduction of the population as a whole) one way or another. , but always indirect, not direct impact. They act indirectly through demographic structures. This does not diminish their role in demographic analysis, but only defines it more precisely.

There are at least three criteria that can be the basis for the internal differentiation of demography: 1) the theoretical level of scientific interpretation of the observed phenomena; 2) object-subject criterion; 3) connection with practice, the degree of focus on solving practical, applied problems. At the same time, of course, in reality, the selection within demography of certain subdisciplines, sections or sciences is based on the joint application of all three criteria.

Within it, such branches are distinguished as the general theory of demography, demographic statistics, mathematical, economic, historical, ethnic, sociological demography, etc. From the names of these branches it can be seen that they are formed at the junctions of demography with other sciences and denote the connection of the subject of demography with subjects related sciences, which act as factors in demography.

Of course, within these sciences, it is also possible to distinguish sections that have different theoretical levels of scientific interpretation of the observed phenomena.

Population health is a characteristic of the health status of members of a social community, measured by a set of socio-demographic indicators: fertility, mortality, average life expectancy, morbidity, level of physical development.

Morbidity is an indicator of the state of health of the population, calculated by the number of registered diseases per 100, 1000, and 10,000 inhabitants in a certain area for 1 year.

The tasks of demography include the study of the territorial distribution of the population, the analysis of trends and processes occurring among the population in connection with their socio-economic living conditions, existing traditions, environmental, medical, legal and other factors. As a rule, all demographic events are distributed in time, their intensity varies depending on the age, gender, living conditions of the population.

Optimization of demographic processes is not only the achievement of certain parameters of the population size, its structure, but also the provision of a higher level of health of the population. It is no coincidence that at the beginning of the 70s of the XX century. at the junction of general demography (mainly economic) and social hygiene, a related scientific field has emerged - medical demography, which studies the relationship of demographic processes of population reproduction from the standpoint of medicine and health care and develops, on this basis, medical and social measures aimed at ensuring the most favorable indicators of population health. The statistical study of population is carried out in two main directions - statics and dynamics of the population.

Population statistics is characterized by the size of the population at a certain (critical) point in time. The composition of the population is studied according to a number of basic characteristics: distribution by sex, age, social and professional affiliation, level of education, marital status, nationality, place of residence, etc.

Population dynamics includes the study of population movement, changes in its number, which can occur as a result of mechanical, social and natural movement.

Methods for studying demographic events include:

censuses regularly conducted in economically developed countries;


sample studies, including the study of some socially significant demographic aspects in connection with social and hygienic factors.


current accounting of a number of demographic phenomena (registration of birth, death, divorce, etc.).


The current accounting of demographic phenomena is used, as a rule, in the study of indicators of the natural movement of the population.


Selective socio-demographic studies are carried out according to a broad program in the intercensal period. They allow tracing changes in the composition of the country's population and are a valuable source of information when studying the state of health of the population and planning the development of various health services.


The main most reliable source of information in the study of the population size and its composition are the general censuses that are regularly carried out both in our country and abroad.


Various indicators are used to analyze and assess the intensity of fertility: the total fertility rate, the coefficient of total and marital fertility, and the total fertility rate.


The total fertility rate, or fertility, showing the number of live births per year per 1000 population, is calculated by the formula:


Thus, accurate registration of all births is necessary to obtain objective data on the birth rate in the country. In accordance with the current legislation, all cases of the birth of children must be registered within 1 month. from the day of birth at the place of birth of the child or the place of residence of the parents. The registration of the child in the registry office is carried out on the basis of the "Medical certificate of birth" (form No. 103 / y 98), which is also issued in the event of the birth of a live child when the mother is discharged from the hospital where the birth took place, regardless of the presence of obstetric beds. In case of multiple births, the "Medical Birth Certificate" is filled out for each child separately.


A "medical birth certificate" is handed out to parents or other persons registering a birth, against a receipt on the spine of the certificate that remains in the medical institution.


In order to record fertility and calculate a number of demographic indicators, it is extremely important to determine whether a child was born alive or dead. For the purpose of comparability of domestic and foreign statistical data and in connection with the transition to the criteria of live birth and stillbirth adopted by WHO, health authorities and institutions should adhere to the following definitions and concepts.


At the same time, the statistics of stillbirths and live births have certain peculiarities. As a rule, health care institutions register in the medical documentation all those born alive and dead, having a birth weight of 500 g or more, regardless of the presence of signs of life, in the manner prescribed by the relevant orders. The registry offices are subject to registration as live births:


those born alive with a body weight of 1000 g or more (or if the birth weight is unknown, the body length is 35 cm or more, or at a gestational age of 28 weeks or more), including newborns with a body weight of less than 1000 g in case of multiple births;


those born alive, if they have lived for more than 168 hours after birth (7 days);


all newborns born with a body weight of 500 to 999g.


Fertility rates are not only demographic, but also the most important medical and social criteria for the viability and reproduction of the population.


However, the crude birth rate does not give an exhaustive picture of the intensity of the process and is used only to roughly characterize this phenomenon. A more accurate assessment of the fertility process is provided by the analysis of special indicators: the coefficients of total fertility (COP) and marital fertility (COF), which are calculated using the following formulas:





These ratios are calculated per 100 women aged 15-49 years (fertile, generative or fertile period of a woman's life). The number of births before and after a given age is insignificant, so it can be neglected.


In contrast to the general indicator of fertility, the age-specific indicators of fertility are calculated using the formula:





The most important indicator in characterizing fertility processes is the total fertility rate, which shows how many children, on average, one woman would give birth to during her life, provided that the existing fertility level remains at each age. This indicator does not depend on the age composition of the population and characterizes the average birth rate in a given calendar period.


All demographic indicators are objective and subjective. For an objective assessment of the existing birth rate, it is necessary to compare with the objective levels of the birth rate. An indicator in the range from 15 to 25% 0 corresponds to the average birth rate, with a value below 15% 0, the birth rate is assessed as low, with a value above 25% 0 - as high.


A subjective assessment of the fertility rate allows one to give a more detailed description of the birth rate in a given territory and contains an analysis of the value of the indicator in dynamics over a number of years, a comparison of the existing birth rate with the same indicator in similar regions, and a comparison with the mortality rate in a given territory.


In assessing the social, demographic and medical well-being of a particular territory, it is necessary to take into account not only fertility rates, but also mortality rates. The interaction between these indicators, the change of one generation to another, ensure the continuous reproduction of the population.


The general mortality rate is the number of deaths in a certain region during the year per 1000 population. The indicator is calculated using the following formula:







Obtaining objective data on the mortality of the population is more connected with the conditions for registering death.


In accordance with the legislation in force in Russia, death, like birth, is subject to mandatory registration at the registry office at the place of residence of the deceased or at the place of death on the basis of the conclusion of a medical institution no later than 3 days. from the moment of death or discovery of a corpse. To ensure registration of death, the "Medical Death Certificate" (Form No. 106 / y-98) was approved, which is issued in health care institutions by a doctor who established the death of a patient or treating a deceased, as well as a paramedic on the basis of observation of the patient and records in medical records.


Determination of the cause of death is extremely important, since the "Medical Certificate of Death" is not only a medical document certifying the fact of death, but also an important statistical document that is the basis of state statistics of causes of death.


Significantly more accurate are the mortality rates of individual age-sex groups of the population, which are calculated using the following formula:





The study of the structure of the causes of death gives the most complete picture of the state of health of the population, reflects the effectiveness of measures taken by health authorities and institutions and the state as a whole to improve the health of the population.


However, a comparative analysis of the causes of mortality among men and women, especially at working age, is essential for the implementation of medical and social preventive measures aimed at reducing the mortality rate.


One of the indicators used to assess public health is the average life expectancy (LLL), which serves as a more objective criterion than fertility, mortality and natural growth rates. The life expectancy indicator should be understood as the hypothetical number of years that the generation of those born at the same time will have to live, provided that the age-specific mortality rates remain unchanged. This indicator characterizes the viability of the population as a whole and is suitable for analyzing the indicator in dynamics and for comparison across different regions and countries. The value of the index of life expectancy not only characterizes the state of health of the population, but also provides an indirect assessment of the level of organization of medical care for the population in the country, the degree of medical literacy of the population, and the existing socio-economic situation.


The life expectancy rate is calculated on the basis of age-specific mortality rates by constructing life tables (or life expectancy). Mortality tables (survival) are compiled using an indirect method, they show the likelihood of a consecutive extinction of a hypothetical population of simultaneously born.


2. PROTECTION OF MATERNITY AND CHILDHOOD, PRIORITY DIRECTIONS IN HEALTHCARE. THERAPEUTIC AND PREVENTIVE CARE FOR CHILDREN


Motherhood, childhood, family are an interconnected system of social factors that decisively determine the state of society and the prospects for its progressive development, communication, normal change and continuity of generations, the preparedness of new members of society for the full realization of the rights and duties of a person and citizen, as well as the actual implementation these rights and responsibilities in social and private life.


Protection of mothers and children is the conditions created by the state aimed at ensuring the necessary conditions for the birth, survival and protection of children, their full development and for the family to realize all its functions in the life of society.


Protecting the health of women and children is a guarantee of maintaining and strengthening the health of the country's population as a whole. Health is laid in childhood and the health of the adult population largely depends on what indicators will determine the health status of children.


An important role in the preservation and enhancement of the health of women and children is played by a specially created structure in the health care system - the system of protection of mothers and children (MCH). The role of the system of protection of mothers and children grows especially in the period when the socio-demographic situation in the country is unfavorable and it is accompanied by a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality and the appearance of a negative natural population growth; a decrease in the number of children in the age structure of the population; an increase in the proportion of children brought up in single-parent families as a result of parental divorces or the birth of children out of wedlock.


Legal protection of maternal and child health in Russia is provided by three main legislative acts:


The Constitution of the Russian Federation, adopted by a popular vote on December 12, 1993.


The Fundamentals of the Legislation of the Russian Federation on the Protection of Citizens' Health, approved by the Supreme Council on July 22, 1993.


The Labor Code of the Russian Federation.


In particular, the "Constitution of the Russian Federation" contains a special article (Article 38) devoted to the protection of the family, motherhood and childhood; in the "Fundamentals of Legislation on the Protection of Citizens' Health," Articles 22-24 set out issues related to the preservation and strengthening of the health of families, pregnant women, mothers and children. Are called upon to intensify their activities at health education centers (health centers). In preschool institutions, schools, it is planned to strengthen work aimed at disseminating hygienic knowledge, skills for the prevention of diseases among children and adolescents, especially tempering, prevention of myopia and poor posture. In addition, in order to ensure the guaranteed rights of women-mothers and children, it is necessary to create a network of institutions equipped with modern equipment to provide medical and preventive care to women and children, to train qualified personnel to work in institutions for the protection of mothers and children.


To work in the system of protection of mothers and children, starting from 1930, special medical personnel began to be trained in the country - pediatricians and obstetricians-gynecologists. For this purpose, pediatric faculties were organized.


Medical care for women and children, aimed at prevention and provided in special outpatient-polyclinic and inpatient institutions, allows for the primary prevention of violations in the state of a woman's health, especially during pregnancy and childbirth, and to reduce the number of deviations in the development and state of health of the child. Every woman and every child must be provided with timely medical supervision, systematic monitoring of the state of health and the provision of all types of medical and social assistance, as well as various recreational activities. The strategy for the development of medical care for women and children is based on the results of scientific research carried out in the country within the framework of targeted federal programs in the most important medical and social areas, the implementation of which, in the context of the transition to a market economy, provides for the concentration of available forces and funds on the key problems of protecting the health of mothers and children. clear and thoughtful planning of activities to ensure the survival of children and the prevention of their disability.


As a presidential program on August 18, 1994, by the decree of the President of the Russian Federation, the target program "Children of Russia" was developed, which includes 7 programs: "Children of Chernobyl", "Baby Food Industry", "Children of the North", "Family Planning", " Disabled children ”,“ Orphans ”,“ Vaccine prophylaxis ”. In the medical aspects of all subprograms, representatives of the services of the system of protection of mothers and children, scientists from the leading scientific centers of the country are actively involved.


The organization of medical care for women and children, as well as for other groups of the population, is based in general on the principles of the district method of service and the dispensary method of work, but has a more pronounced preventive focus. Institutions that provide medical care to women and children are conventionally divided into 3 groups: treatment and prevention, health improvement and educational. The most numerous group are medical and preventive institutions (outpatient clinics, hospitals, as well as institutions of ambulance stations).


An important link in the general system of maternal and child health is the obstetric and gynecological service, designed to ensure the health of women, as well as children in the ante-, intra- and postnatal periods. The leading institution in the system of obstetric and gynecological service is the women's consultation - a medical and prophylactic institution of a dispensary type that performs outpatient monitoring of women at all periods of their lives. More often antenatal clinics are located as part of large clinics, with medical and sanitary units. In some cases, antenatal clinics are part of the united maternity hospital. This makes it possible to use their material and technical base, to attract doctors of various specialties for medical advice, to use a single laboratory diagnostic and physiotherapeutic service.


In rural areas, an obstetrician-gynecologist conducts an outpatient appointment in the outpatient department of local hospitals, in outpatient clinics. To provide qualified medical care to rural women and improve the level of knowledge of doctors in rural district hospitals, such a form of outpatient care for pregnant and gynecological patients is widespread and effective, as mobile women's clinics. The structure of the antenatal clinic includes administrative and economic offices, a registry, offices of district obstetricians-gynecologists, therapist, dentist, ophthalmologist, laboratory diagnostic units, a social and legal office,


In order to identify gynecological diseases at various stages, a network of examination rooms in polyclinics has been deployed, in which the relationship with the antenatal clinic is of great importance. Thanks to preventive examinations, it is possible to timely identify various gynecological diseases in women, including precancerous and cancerous diseases of the genital organs, and take the necessary measures. At present, the expediency of creating basic antenatal clinics has been proven, which are medical and advisory and organizational and methodological centers of the city and district, as well as schools for advanced training of doctors and nurses.


The work of the antenatal clinic, like that of other outpatient clinics, is built on a district principle and is based on the dispensary ‘method of work. The size of one obstetric-gynecological site is approximately 2 therapeutic sites, therefore, 1 district obstetrician-gynecologist under supervision is about 2-2.5 thousand women.


A decisive role in maintaining the health of women and their children belongs to the organization of preventive work in the antenatal clinic, the implementation of which is ensured by the introduction of the dispensary method. Preventive work is carried out among healthy women attached to this antenatal clinic, among pregnant women and women suffering from gynecological diseases requiring dynamic observation.


In the structure of second-level institutions, it is necessary to provide for the following blocks (areas) of activity:


1) information and analytical block, including:


social and hygienic department with departments for studying the health of the population, software and hardware;


department of the organization of the state sanitary and epidemiological service with departments for organizing and planning activities, service for training and using personnel, metrology and standardization, hygienic education with press
center;


2) a block of organization of state sanitary and epidemiological supervision, which includes:


department of the organization of the State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance with departments for epidemiological, food hygiene, labor hygiene, hygiene of children and adolescents, communal hygiene, sanitary and quarantine, radiation hygiene, and other departments;


department of laboratory control organization with laboratories of sanitary-chemical, microbiological, physical factors.


3. TUBERCULOSIS: MODERN TRENDS, MEDICAL AND SOCIAL ASPECTS, ORGANIZATION OF MEDICAL CARE, WORK OF ANTITUBERCULOSIS DISPENSARY


Tuberculosis(tuberculosis; lat.tuberculum tubercle + -sis) is a disease caused by mycobacterium tuberculosis. Respiratory organs are most commonly affected , among other organs and systems - mainly the genitourinary system, peripheral lymph nodes, skin, eyes, bones and joints . Tuberculosis intoxication is a special form of tuberculosis in children and adolescents. , or tuberculosis without a specific location.


The causative agents of tuberculosis are acid-resistant mycobacteria, discovered by the German bacteriologist R. Koch in 1882 - mycobacterium tuberculosis. Most often T. in humans is caused by mycobacterium tuberculosis of the human species, less often of the bovine species. Mycobacterium tuberculosis are thin, straight or slightly curved rods 1-10 micron, 0.2-0.6 wide micron, homogeneous or grainy with slightly rounded ends. They are resistant to environmental factors: in street dust they last up to 10 days, on the pages of books - up to 3 months, in water - up to 5 months. Under the influence of sunlight, the culture of Mycobacterium tuberculosis dies after 90 min, ultraviolet rays kill her within 2-3 min... When boiling, mycobacterium tuberculosis die in moist sputum after 5 min, in dried sputum - after 45 min... When exposed to drugs that emit free active chlorine (3-5% chloramine solutions; 1-2% chloramine solutions activated with ammonium sulfate; 10-20% bleach solutions, etc.), the death of tuberculosis pathogens occurs after 3-5 h... Under the influence of various factors, mycobacterium tuberculosis is able to transform both into ultrafine filtering particles and into giant branched forms. Once in favorable conditions, mycobacterium tuberculosis can again acquire a typical form.


In the epidemiology of tuberculosis, medical and biological factors associated with the interaction of the human body and the causative agent of the disease, and social factors that determine the state of health of the population as a whole and its individual groups, are of great importance.


The main source of infectious agents is sick T. a person who releases them into the environment. As a rule, these are patients with T. lungs, the sputum of which contains mycobacterium tuberculosis. Patients with constant abundant bacterial excretion are the most dangerous in terms of epidemiology. One such patient, who does not follow the rules of personal hygiene, is capable of infecting up to 10-12 people per year. With a meager inconsistent bacterial excretion, the danger of contracting tuberculosis exists only in close contact with the patient. In most cases, tuberculosis is infected by airborne droplets, less often by airborne dust and alimentary. Described about 100 cases of intrauterine infection of the fetus with tuberculosis in pregnant women.


The second most important source of infectious agents is cattle with tuberculosis. Rarer sources of infectious agents include pigs, sheep, camels, cats, dogs, birds and other animals with tuberculosis. A person can become infected from an animal with tuberculosis by airborne droplets, airborne dust, by contact, as well as by eating unboiled and unpasteurized milk (and dairy products from it), less often meat from a sick animal. Livestock breeders and their families are at the highest risk of contracting tuberculosis from sick animals.


Tuberculosis is established on the basis of the results of a comprehensive examination of the patient and is confirmed by the detection of mycobacterium tuberculosis in sputum, urine, fistula discharge and other pathological material or by the identification of characteristic morphological changes in biopsy specimens of affected organs. The data of immunological studies can serve as an indirect confirmation of the tuberculous nature of the disease. The activity of the tuberculous process is determined on the basis of characteristic clinical and radiological signs, bacterial excretion, positive results of a tuberculin challenge test (Koch test), changes in the hemogram and biochemical tests.


Currently, in anti-tuberculosis institutions, a comprehensive staged examination of patients is carried out, including a mandatory diagnostic minimum, additional and optional research methods.


The goal of treating patients with tuberculosis is the stable healing of tuberculous foci in the affected organs and the complete elimination of all clinical manifestations of the disease - a clinical cure. The effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment detected at early stages of development (even destructive forms) is much higher than that of a neglected process (fibro-cavernous, cirrhotic). A necessary condition for the successful treatment of tuberculosis is the continuity of patient follow-up. As a rule, treatment begins in a hospital. Upon reaching the clinical and radiological effect (cessation of bacterial excretion, closure of the cavities of tissue decay), patients are sent to sanatoriums (local or climatic). Patients with minor forms of tuberculosis can be referred to a sanatorium after 2-3 months of treatment in the hospital. They are finishing treatment on an outpatient basis under the supervision of a phthisiatrician at an anti-tuberculosis dispensary.


Medical rehabilitation of patients with tuberculosis occurs with clinical cure, which is characterized by the lack of activity of the process (which is established on the basis of the results of clinical, radiological and laboratory research methods) and the stabilization of residual changes. Modern methods of complex treatment of tuberculosis make it possible to achieve medical rehabilitation of the majority of patients with tuberculosis, especially those who are sick for the first time, in 2-3 years from the start of treatment. In patients with widespread destructive tuberculosis, which has become chronic, medical rehabilitation occurs later or is impossible. Due to the fact that some of the patients who have undergone tuberculosis may have dysfunctions of the affected organs associated with residual post-tuberculosis changes, the functional rehabilitation of patients with tuberculosis is of great importance. The restoration of the function of the transplanted organs is facilitated by the early use of dosed physical activity during inpatient and sanatorium treatment, pathogenetic therapy.


Social and labor, incl. and vocational, rehabilitation is heavily dependent on medical rehabilitation. However, there is no complete correspondence between medical and social and labor rehabilitation, because not all persons clinically cured of tuberculosis become able to work. Disability may be due to the consequences of tuberculosis. Especially often its causes are pronounced functional disorders after clinical cure pulmonary tuberculosis (residual post-tuberculosis changes in the lungs, which caused the development of respiratory and pulmonary heart failure), as well as tuberculosis of bones and joints (kyphosis, contracture, ankylosis). At the same time, some patients with tuberculosis, in whom the process remains active, but has stabilized or has taken a regressive course, can start working, incl. professional. In such cases, social and labor rehabilitation is ahead of medical rehabilitation.


In our country, a network of anti-tuberculosis institutions has been created: dispensaries, hospitals (including day hospitals), sanatoriums, sanatoriums, forest schools, specialized preschool children's institutions. Anti-tuberculosis work is also carried out by institutions of the general medical and preventive network.


The most important role in organizing the fight against tuberculosis belongs to the anti-tuberculosis dispensary - an institution that plans, organizes and, to a large extent, directly implements anti-tuberculosis activities in the service area. In addition to independent anti-tuberculosis dispensaries, there are anti-tuberculosis dispensary departments and offices in polyclinics, hospitals, medical units, which work under the leadership of the district anti-tuberculosis dispensary.


The tasks of the anti-tuberculosis dispensary are the prevention of tuberculosis; early detection of tuberculosis patients; registration of all patients with tuberculosis and individuals at risk of disease and relapse, active monitoring of all registered individuals, and implementation of differentiated therapeutic and preventive measures; full treatment of tuberculosis patients in order to achieve the most perfect clinical cure, i.e. with minimal residual changes in the affected organ and maximum restoration of impaired body functions; systematic study of the epidemiology of tuberculosis in the service area, taking into account social and hygienic factors; analysis of annual indicators of the effectiveness of anti-tuberculosis measures and the use of the results of such an analysis for planning and methodological guidance of all anti-tuberculosis activities carried out in the service area of ​​the dispensary.


The most important part of sanitary prophylaxis is preventive measures in the foci of tuberculosis, including current and final disinfection ; treatment of tuberculosis patients in a hospital setting, followed by outpatient controlled chemotherapy: isolation of children from bacterial excretors by hospitalizing the patient or placing children in children's anti-tuberculosis institutions (sanatoriums, forest schools); vaccination of newborns and revaccination of uninfected persons in contact with patients with tuberculosis, BCG vaccine; regular examination of persons in contact with a tuberculosis patient and carrying out chemoprophylaxis; training of tuberculosis patients and their family members in hygiene rules; improving the living conditions of tuberculosis patients. The plan for improving the focus of tuberculosis and the procedure for monitoring it are determined by the degree of its epidemiological danger.


A preventive measure is also to prevent patients who excrete mycobacterium tuberculosis from working in medical and children's institutions, educational institutions, public catering, public services, food and pharmaceutical industries, and public transport.


BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Fundamentals of the legislation of the Russian Federation "On the protection of health of citizens in the Russian Federation" // Bulletin of the Congress of People's Deputies of the Russian Federation and the Supreme Soviet of the Russian Federation, No. 31, 1993.
   

   Lisitsyn Yu.P., Polunina N.V. Public health and healthcare. -M .: Medicine, 2006
   

2. E.V. Chernosvitov Social medicine. M., 2006.
   

   The main directions of the implementation of social policy of the Department for Social Protection of the Population of the Prikubansky District of Krasnodar The main directions of improving the system of social protection of the population of the USZN of the Prikubansky inner-city district of Krasnodar External storage devices. Main characteristics

Demography is a science that studies the size, territorial distribution, composition of the population, patterns of change based on economic, social, geographic, biological factors, conditions and causes.

The tasks of science

Its main purpose is to identify and analyze demographic patterns, laws, relationships. Demography tasks include:

• studying the direction of the processes based on the collection and analysis of the demographic situation;
• development of forecasts;
• thinking through the activities of demographic statistics.

Research methods

Various research methods are used to solve the tasks set for science. The peculiarities of demography are that in addition to descriptive technologies, statistical and mathematical analysis and the comparative method are widely used. It is difficult to imagine the systematization and generalization of information without the use of deduction and induction, hypothesis, modeling and extrapolation.

Demography is a science that relies on sociological methods for studying the demographic situation. For example, the cohort method, cross-sectional and longitudinal demographic analysis, and standardization allow researchers to draw up a complete picture of the situation in a particular locality.

Modernity

Currently, demography is a complex system of population sciences that studies reproduction and demographic processes. There are three main criteria on the basis of which internal differentiation is carried out in demography:

• objective-objective criterion;
• focus on solving applied, practical problems;
• theoretical level of scientific substantiation of the observed phenomena.

Demography is a science in which several branches are distinguished. Currently, there is formal, theoretical, descriptive, historical, economic, social demography.

Specificity of activity

There are different areas of demography, each of which is significant for getting the big picture:

• the theoretical foundation of science is made up of theoretical, descriptive, historical, economic demography, process modeling;
• applied research;
• demography of regions;
• branch sciences - ethnic, medical, military, political demography;
• socio-demographic forecasting;
• mathematical, sociological, statistical, cartographic methods;
• theoretical basis of demographic policy.

Relationship with other sciences

Among those areas with which demography cooperates, the historical and social sciences, specializing in the study of the economy of the population, social psychology, sociology, migration policy, and ethnography, are noted.

In addition, sections of demography are inextricably linked with mathematics and statistics, genetics, epidemiology, evolutionary biology. This science applies methods and uses facts established by other areas of knowledge. Other sciences also use demographic information in their research, which contributes to a deeper understanding of the subject of research.

The concept of demography appeared in 1855. This term is associated with history, because the analysis of reproduction as a historical process makes it possible to identify its social significance, dependence on social processes taking place in society.

The demography is influenced by the peculiarities of culture and everyday life of the population. In the economic field, related to this science are those areas that study the employment of people, relations in the field of distribution. Relationships in the family are closer from sociology to demography. With the help of social psychology, one can consider the features of demographic behavior, predict it.

Mathematical and statistical methods are of particular importance for collecting data on the population, checking them, identifying various errors.

Demographic indicators also have biological elements in their base. This explains the use in this science of methods and results of experiments in the field of genetics, physiology, psychology, anthropology, gerontology.

Historical background

Discussing what demography studies, let us dwell on interesting facts related to its appearance. There is information about the registration of the population in China in the XXIII century. BC e., and since the XII century. BC NS. in this country, periodic counts were carried out. The issue of demography was considered in Ancient Iran, Egypt, Mesopotamia, Judea, India, for this a simple population census was carried out.

Historians have reliable information about the registration of the male population from the end of the 4th century. BC NS. In the Roman Empire from 510 to 30 AD. BC, the census was called census, it was carried out for military and fiscal purposes. It covered the male population, made it possible to identify the number of soldiers and taxpayers. For example, in ancient Rome, under the reign of Servius Tullius (1st century BC), each resident had to donate a certain amount to the temples, the amount of which directly depended on the age and gender of the person.

At that time, mortality in demography was also taken into account, the reasons for which were wars, numerous epidemics. It was not specific people that were recounted, but households. For example, in England, by decree of William the Conqueror in 1086, a population census was carried out, the results of which are known as the "Book of the Last Judgment."

Analyzing what demography studies, we note that in the XV-XVI centuries. v. the practice of registering the population in states and cities has significantly expanded. But research was still carried out only sporadically to identify the number of residents who are able to pay taxes, take part in military and defensive actions.

Accounting techniques

Considering what is the subject of demography, let's first consider its methods. Since the end of the 18th century, regular population censuses have been carried out in the United States of America. A little later, similar events began to be carried out in Norway, Austria, Holland. Since the second half of the nineteenth century, censuses have become commonplace in many parts of the world. The set of indicators gradually increased: in addition to age, the questionnaires were asked to indicate the gender and marital status of the people being rewritten. The scientific principles of such events were formulated by the statistician A. Quetelet. He is considered the founder of demography and statistics.

He not only created the principles for conducting a population census, but also established that such social processes as mortality, fertility, and crime also have a certain pattern.

The population census in Belgium in 1846 was carried out in a day, as a result, it was possible to determine the actual number of people. Specially trained registrars were involved to carry out the accounting. The experience of the events held in Belgium was appreciated by other countries, they began to implement it in their practice.

Statistical international congresses

They began to be carried out in the second half of the 19th century in order to improve the quality of population censuses.

For the period from 1853 to 1876. nine statistical international congresses were held:

• in Brussels (1853);
• in Paris (1855);
• in Vienna (1857);
• in London (1860);
• in Berlin (1863);
• in Florence (1867);
• in The Hague (1869);
• in Budapest (1876);
• in St. Petersburg (1872).

At the last congress, recommendations for the conduct of a population census, based on the Belgian experience, were adopted. It was proposed to conduct them at least once every ten years in years that end with 0 (or 9, 1), keeping records of the available population for the analyzed time period.

The civilized countries of the world took note of the recommendations of the Congress. In the 70s of the nineteenth century, 48 censuses were carried out, and in the first decade of the last century - 74. In 1885, the International Statistical Institute was created, whose task was to conduct one session of demographic statisticians every three years. For example, a similar event took place in St. Petersburg in 1897. It was on it that recommendations were adopted to all countries to organize a full-fledged population census at the beginning of the 20th century.

In 1900, it was carried out in 19 countries, a year later, the census took place in 26 more states. By the beginning of our century, there were no countries left in the world in which a population census had never been carried out.

There are also those underdeveloped states in which the last time a full-fledged population census was carried out 20-30 years ago.

Demographics in Russia

Our country has many centuries of experience in organizing population registration. In the chronicles of the 9th-11th centuries, there are references to the collection of tribute by the princes, therefore, citizens were kept in records. A thorough census was carried out during the invasion of the Horde in order to accurately and fully calculate the amount of tribute. Since the end of the 13th century, Russian princes periodically possessed taxes not only for the population, but also for houses and land plots.

During the Horde invasion, the counters - the "numbers" counted the entire population, excluding the clergy, who were freed by the Horde from paying tribute.

In the censuses of the thirteenth century, a household, a house, was considered as a unit of observation.

In the XIV-XVI centuries. land plots began to be subject to taxation, which is why the censuses were land censuses, their results were presented in scribes.

In 1718, Peter I issued a decree on the capitation of the male population. The population counts in the country were called revisions, they were carried out until the abolition of serfdom in the country. Such events took into account only the taxable population, they were not carried out throughout the country. Since 1719, they began to draw up lists of the population, which were called "revision tales." The information received was checked within the framework of audits. The population census in our country was carried out from 1719 to 1859. In total, ten were held, the duration of each ranged from one to fifteen years. The records were kept not of actual residents, but of male legal entities. The landlords in any way tried to underestimate the figure in order to pay small taxes. They did not always submit the revision tale in a timely manner, so some of the dead were listed as living souls.

After the abolition of serfdom, there was no need to conduct a capitation census in our country. Only in 1897 was the full-fledged first general census of Russian citizens carried out, the next took place only during the period of war communism (1920).

Then the Soviet government decided to conduct three censuses at once:

• citizens;
• industrial companies;
• agricultural enterprises.

In 1923, the census was subject to the urban population, but activities were carried out only in some areas. The scribes used the method of polling.

In the fall of 2002, the population of the country was offered 11 questions of the census form, and based on the results obtained, a complete picture of the demographic situation in the country was compiled.

Conclusion

Demography is the science of population, the basic laws of reproduction, as well as social and economic factors. This science studies the population, its composition, number and dynamics, sex and age structures. Demography is more than 300 years old, but it still does not lose its relevance. In addition to analyzing the quantitative and qualitative composition of the population, its tasks include carrying out work related to forecasting. The unit of demography is a person. He has a variety of characteristics: age, gender, marital status, education, nationality, occupation. Any changes in people's lives constitute a movement of the population. There is a division of demography into sections, each of which is important for the country's economy.

The theoretical part of this science is associated with the interpretation of the driving forces of population reproduction, the influence on this process of social, economic, psychological factors. The demographic theory includes an explanation of the mode of reproduction, as well as the mutual influence of demographic structures and processes.

As a source of information for demography, the results of censuses of citizens, generalized data on registration of deaths, births, divorces, survey materials and small censuses are used.

In the description of demographic processes, a general characteristic of the size of the sex, age, marital, marital composition of the population, as well as the general level and directions of demographic processes in certain conditions, is used.

Demography is currently a science with its own theoretical knowledge, methods, and practical tasks. Among the main tasks facing it are the analysis of trends and factors of demographic processes, the development of forecasts, thinking through and carrying out measures to improve demographic policy.

It is important to be able to assess the reliability of statistical information, to select certain indicators for each case.

They, depending on specific conditions, can characterize the intensity and direction of one process in absolutely different ways. For example, at one point in time, some indicators may indicate a decrease in the birth rate, while some of the factors confirm its growth.

The analyst must understand what is actually happening in the time period under consideration. The correctness of this assessment directly depends on the actions that will be taken by government agencies to solve the identified problem.

The study of the factors of the demographic process is also of great importance. Awareness of the reasons that led to the decline in the birth rate, the resettlement of the rural population to large industrial centers, allows analysts not only to generalize the information received, but also to think over specific mechanisms of action that contribute to the improvement of the demographic situation in the country.

Demography cannot exist without other sciences: biology, geography, history, psychology, philosophy. Thanks to their interaction, analysts get a complete picture of the situation in the village, village, city, country. The information received is processed and used for specific activities.

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Introduction

Speaking about the global problems of mankind, it is necessary to start with the demographic one, because economic, ecological, and social characteristics are associated with population growth, and the very prospects of mankind are associated with it.

Today there is an urgent need for public management of demographic processes. Precisely public, not just state.

In the first half of the 90s, our country entered the stage of, without exaggeration, one might say, a demographic catastrophe. This catastrophe is expressed primarily in the unprecedented low birth rate, in the very high divorce rate, in the relatively low life expectancy of the population, especially male and rural. Since 1992, the population of Russia has not been growing, but decreasing, and at a very fast pace. Some measures are needed to rectify the situation, some programs ... Until now, in all countries that have a demographic situation similar to ours and are trying to somehow fix it, they mainly use measures of material support for families with the help of various kinds of benefits and benefits. As history shows, the effectiveness of these measures is low. Deeper targeted changes in culture, in the entire way of life of society are needed in order to increase the prestige of family life, the prestige of a family with several children, which is very low today. This requires a special family policy, large-scale cultural programs, not just economic ones.

A brief history of the formation of demography

The word "demography" is formed from two Greek words: "demos" - people - and "grapho" - I write, that is, if this phrase is interpreted literally, it will mean "description of the people", or a description of the population. But demography from the very beginning of its history has never been limited only to description, its subject has always been wider and deeper. Unlike many other sciences, demography has a precise date of birth. It dates back to January 1662, when a book by the English merchant and captain, later major of the city police, self-taught scientist John Graunt (1620-1674) was published in London, which had a long, as was then accepted, and very eloquent title : “Natural and Political Observations Listed in the Attached Table of Contents and Based on the Mortality Bulletins. In relation to government, religion, trade, growth, air, disease and other changes in the named city. Written by John Graunt, Citizen of London.

Graunt's thin book (90 pages in total) served as the conception of not one, but three sciences at once: statistics, sociology and demography, which then, over the course of three centuries, sorted out among themselves "kinship" relations - who is who is whom. But first, the direct "descendant" of Graunt's book was political arithmetic - a science that sought to study the quantitative (more precisely, statistical) laws of social phenomena and processes. Over the next centuries, outstanding scientists and public figures showed interest in the demographic aspects of society: economists and politicians, astronomers, physicists, mathematicians, biologists, physicians, clergymen, etc. Finally, in the 19th century. the name of science appeared, which was given to it by the Belgian scientist Altai Guillard (1799-1876), an entomologist by profession. In 1855 in Paris, he published the book "Elements of Human Statistics or Comparative Demography ...", in which he defined demography very broadly - as "natural and social history of the human race" and as "mathematical knowledge of human populations, their general movement, their physical, civil and moral condition ”. Another outstanding scientist of the 19th century also broadly defined the range of interests of demography. - Jacques Bertillon (according to another transcription - Bertillon) (1851-1922, by the way, the grandson of A. Guillard). In the second half of the XIX century. prevailing view on demography as a synonym for statistics or as a section of statistics (population statistics). Subsequently, the formation of demography as a science proceeded in two directions. On the one hand, its subject was gradually narrowed down, more precisely, concretized, on the other hand, the circle of factors influencing this subject, which demography included in the field of its consideration, expanded. Gradually, it excluded from it the questions of economics, upbringing and education, social structure and mobility, public health, morality, etc., which in fact constituted the subject of research for other sciences: political economy, sociology, pedagogy, ethnography, medicine, etc. In the end by the mid-1960s. most experts began to limit the subject of demography to issues of the so-called natural population movementeniya. The movement of the population is understood here not in physical, but in a more general form, as the change. There are two types of population movement: natural and mechanical (migration). The second of the two named types of movement (change) of the population, experts prefer in recent years to call migration movement (this is the movement of the population across the territory), or even more simply - population migration.

Demographic subject

The real goal of research for any science is to reveal the laws (cause-and-effect relationships) of development in the area of ​​being that is its subject. In turn, the knowledge of the laws of development is unthinkable without the preliminary establishment (identification) of regularities, i.e. objectively existing, repetitive, stable links between the phenomena of this development. It is in the regularities that the laws of development are manifested (although it is far from always possible to fix this manifestation and most often it is not easy. This is what any science does).

Now, finally, we can formulate the definition of the subject of demography as follows:

The subject of demography is the laws of natural reproduction of the population.

One could add to this: in their socio-historical conditioning. But it is possible not to add, because the laws of social development (and the laws of demographic development are an integral part of the laws of social development) cannot be cognized otherwise than in socio-historical conditioning. Such an addition is usually made as a safety net, in order to once again emphasize the predominantly social character of demographic processes and point to the place of demography among the social sciences.

Population is also understood specifically in demography. This is not any set of people, but a set of people, self-reproducing in the process of generational change. That is, it is a fairly large number of people with a rich structure necessary for the continuous renewal of this population. The ability to reproduce itself is the main quality that defines a population precisely as a demographic category, distinguishing it from other populations of people, for example, such as a production team, residents of a house, etc.

Demographic objectives

The main task of any science is the knowledge of the laws of development (movement) in a certain part of society and nature. But along with this, each science also has practical tasks. Demographics also have them. There are three of them: 1) the study of trends and factors of demographic processes; 2) development of demographic forecasts; 3) development of measures of demographic policy.

1. Revealing the true tendencies of demographic processes is not at all an easy task, as it might seem. You need to be able to assess the reliability of statistical information and select the appropriate indicators for each case (or design them). Different indicators, depending on their individual properties, can characterize the direction and intensity of the same process in completely different ways. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that demographic processes are highly inertial, develop very slowly (by human standards), and it is often more correct to keep track of time in demography not by years, but by generations. Therefore, it is extremely important to see in time in which direction the demographic processes are developing in order to timely begin to develop measures of demographic policy designed to prevent unfavorable development.

The study of the factors of demographic processes is of no less importance. Speaking about factors, most often they mean the causes of phenomena and processes. In dictionaries, most often, a fundamental distinction is not made between a factor and a cause. Meanwhile, in the languages ​​of different sciences, the use of these two most important concepts is different.

Statistics always deals with visible, measurable objects (phenomena) and processes in which cause-and-effect relationships are established not directly, but by their external indicators (indicators).

Such external indicators, signs of causes(traces of reasons) and are factors(factor signs). The factors in statistics are usually spoken of in cases where the role of a particular cause is not sufficiently defined or is generally only assumed. Thus, the factor is a statistically observed reflection of the cause. Unlike the cause, the factor is always observable (measurable). This is the difference between them. And this circumstance in no way diminishes the significance of the factor as an element, a step on the way to cognizing the cause.

2. Based on the study of trends in demographic processes and cause-and-effect relationships of demographic processes with other social processes, demographers develop forecasts of future changes in the size and structure of the population. These forecasts are needed not only by demographers themselves to assess the likely nature of demographic development. Very few outside the narrow circle of demographers know that it is on demographic forecasts that the planning of the entire national economy is largely based: the production of goods and services, housing and communal construction, labor resources, training of specialists, schools and preschool institutions, roads and means of transport , military conscription contingent and so on. Demographic forecasts cover virtually the entire economic and military potential of the country. That is why in the recent past they were kept with seven seals. 3. And finally, on the basis of knowledge of the real tendencies of demographic processes, on the basis of establishing their causal relationships with other social processes, on the basis of demographic (as well as socio-economic, military-political and other) forecasts and plans, goals and measures are determined demographic and social policy.

Research methods in demography

Demography in the study of its subject - the natural reproduction of the population - uses various methods, the main of which can be combined by their nature into three groups: statistical, mathematical and sociological. Objects of observation in demography are not individual people or events, but groups of people and events grouped according to certain rules, homogeneous in some respect. Such aggregates are called statistical facts. Demography seeks to establish and measure objectively existing relationships between statistical facts related to its subject, using methods also developed in statistics, for example, methods of correlation and factor analysis. In demography, other statistical methods are also used, in particular, sampling and index methods, the method of averages, equalization methods, tabular and others.

The processes of population reproduction are interconnected by sometimes simple, sometimes rather complex quantitative relationships, which leads to the use of many mathematical methods for measuring some demographic characteristics from data on other characteristics. Today in demography, mathematical models of the population are widely used, with the help of which, on the basis of fragmentary and inaccurate data obtained by direct observation, it is possible to obtain a fairly complete and reliable idea of ​​the true state of population reproduction. In some cases, using mathematical models, you can get more reliable data than using direct statistical accounting. Finally, in the last quarter of a century (in our country, and in the West for more than half a century), sociological methods of studying the so-called demographic behavior, i.e. subjective attitudes, needs, opinions, plans, decision-making, actions in relation to the demographic aspects of the life of people, families, social groups.

Specialization within demography

With the development of demographic research, the expansion of the range of factors involved by demography to explain the interrelationships of demographic processes with other social processes, the methodological apparatus used by demography in its studies is also expanding. Collaboration with other sciences in the study of their subject, the involvement of specialists from other sciences for the same purposes (i.e., the study of the problems of natural reproduction of the population) led to the emergence of a number of its branches (or sections) within demography, united by a common subject, but differing in the circle the studied factors affecting this subject, and, accordingly, differing in research methods. In this, by the way, demography does not differ from the majority of natural and social sciences, except that in this respect it is far behind them.

Today we usually talk not about physics, mathematics, economics, medicine, etc., but about physical, economic, medical and other sciences. The same process of specialization occurs in sociology, in which such sections as the sociology of personality, labor, family, education and culture, religion, etc. are distinguished. Gone are the days when statistics was a universal science and the same scientists dealt with the problems of the population, and the problems of agriculture, industry, labor resources, culture, housing, trade, etc. Today, the study of these qualitatively different subjects of statistics has deepened so much, and research methods have expanded and become so complicated that specialists from different branches of the same science - statistics - often do not understand each other's language.

The same process of specialization occurs in demography. It is largely due to the fact that demographers are recruited from other sciences related to demography, since there is no special demographic education in our country yet (except for the training of a small number of demostatisticians and political economists with a “demographic bias.” such industries as demographic statistics (or otherwise - population statistics), economic, mathematical, historical, ethnic, sociological demography (this is probably not a complete list of such disciplines).

Demographic statistics- the oldest branch of demography (perhaps the entire system of statistical sciences). Its particular subject is the study of statistical patterns of population reproduction (we will not talk about natural population reproduction every time, but we will mean it). The task of demographic statistics includes the development of methods for statistical observation and measurement of demographic phenomena and processes, collection and primary processing of statistical materials on population reproduction.

A certain stage of development has reached mathematical demography, the subject of which is the development and application of mathematical methods for studying the interrelationships of demographic phenomena and processes, their modeling and forecasting. Demographic models include probabilistic tables of mortality, marriage, fertility, stationary and stable population models, simulation models of demographic processes, etc.

Historical demography studies the state and dynamics of demographic processes in the history of countries and peoples, as well as the history of the development of demographic science itself.

Adjacent to historical demography ethnic demography, studying ethnic characteristics (factors) of population reproduction. It is known that ethnic features of the way of life of peoples, customs, traditions, the structure of family relations have a significant impact on the birth rate (the number of children in the family), on the state of health and average life expectancy, especially on marriage and the strength of marriage.

Economic demography explores the economic factors of population reproduction. Economic factors here mean the entire set of economic conditions for the life of society, their influence on the rate of population growth, birth and death rates, marriage rates, on the formation and stability of the family, etc.

Rather quickly in the last quarter of a century, it has been developing sociological demography, studying the influence of sociological and socio-psychological factors on volitional, subjective actions of people in demographic processes.

A number of other demographic sectors could be named (medical, political, legal, military, etc.). On the other hand, in the sciences adjacent to demography, there already exist, although not always clearly defined, scientific branches of economic, sociological, historical and other sciences, for which the reproduction of the population, its various aspects act as factors affecting the processes that make up the subject of research. these sciences.

Demographic statistics

Demographic statistics, population statistics, an area of ​​statistics dealing with the application of statistical methods to the collection, processing, presentation and analysis of data characterizing the size, composition, location and movement of the population of a country, territory or its individual groups. Demographic statistics are also understood as the totality of numerical data on the population, and sometimes the area of ​​practice for the collection and processing of these data. The theoretical basis of Soviet demographic statistics is Marxist-Leninist demography. The methods developed by demographic statistics are based on the provisions of the theory of statistics. Demographic statistics is one of the most important tools for demographic analysis, and the information accumulated by it serves as the factual basis for many socio-economic studies of the population. Demographic statistics develops methods for collecting data on the population, current and prospective estimates of its size and composition, methods for measuring, comparing the intensity and studying the factors of demographic processes (fertility, mortality, nuptiality, breakdown of marriages, etc.). Historically, they are adjoined by other, non-statistical methods of demography, in particular, the construction of mathematical models of the population (stationary, stable, etc.), the analysis of the functions of population reproduction, presented in the form of demographic tables (fertility, mortality, nuptiality), the development of general characteristics of the mode of population reproduction , as well as models that simulate demographic processes.

Analysis of the patterns of population development involves measuring the intensity of demographic processes by calculating coefficients expressing the frequency of certain demographic events (births, deaths, marriages, divorces) in the population or its groups, or the probabilities of these events occurring. Since the intensity of these events depends on age, indicators for individual ages are especially important. A set of such indicators, calculated for a set of peers for different years of their life, characterizes the reproduction of a real generation. In practice, they often use age indicators for a conditional or hypothetical generation, which characterize the intensity of demographic processes in the same period, but refer to people of different generations. Indicators for certain age groups - children, able-bodied, childbearing - are of independent importance. The characteristics of the process of formation and disintegration of families are important.

Population records serve as the source of demographic statistics. Traditionally, a distinction is made between accounting for the state and accounting for the movement of the population. Information about the state of the population, that is, its size, distribution and distribution by social groups, sex, age, education, nationality, occupation, etc., is obtained during population censuses conducted at a certain time, centrally, according to a single program, which give a kind of snapshot of the population. Information about the natural movement of the population - about changes in its number and composition due to births and deaths (as well as about marriages and divorces) - provides a current account of these events, based on registration of acts of civil status. The mechanical movement of the population, or migration, is taken into account in censuses, or by registering a change of place of residence. Some countries maintain permanent lists or so-called population registers. In the USSR, one of their forms is the household books of the rural Soviet account. Information about the population and demographic processes is also obtained from regular or episodic sample surveys, which are especially important in countries where population census is not established. Sample surveys using the so-called anamnestic method, that is, by interviewing about events in the past, provide indicators for the real generation. The materials of these sources make it possible to obtain estimates of the size and age-sex composition of the population between censuses, as well as information necessary for analyzing demographic processes in the territorial context.

Main demographic indicatorsewhether

All indicators can be divided into two main types: absolute and relative. Absolute indicators(or quantities) are simply the sums of demographic events: (phenomena) at a point in time (or in a time interval, most often in a year). These include, for example, the population at a certain date, the number of births, deaths, etc. per year, month, several years, etc. Absolute indicators are not informative in themselves, they are used in analytical work, usually as input data for the calculation. relative indicators... For comparative analysis, only relative indicators are used. They are called relative because they always represent a fraction, a ratio to the population that produces them.

NSpopulation indicators

The population size is a momentary indicator, that is, it always refers to an exact moment in time. The decline in population is called depopulation.

From the data on the number for a number of years, it is possible to calculate the absolute increase, the growth rate and the average population size.

Population S:

1) - data at the beginning and end of the year.

2) at equal intervals (based on quarterly data) - this formula is average chronological.

3) for unequal intervals - this is the weighted average formula. (3)

Indicators enaturallythmovementI ampopulation

Natural growth:

Where P is the number of births; Y is the number of deaths.

The simplest indicators of the natural movement of the population - general coefficients - are so called because when calculating the number of demographic events: births, deaths, etc., they are correlated with the total population.

Total fertility rate:

Today, the main factor on which the demographic future of our country depends entirely is the birth rate.

Overall mortality rate:

General rate of natural growth:

General vital rates are calculated with standard precision to tenths of a ppm.

Indicators of mechanical movement. Migration

Migration is the mechanical movement of the population across the territory of a country or between countries.

P - B, where P is the number of arrivals to this territory, (8)

B - the number of people who left this territory.

Total population growth:

Where is the natural population growth; - migration (mechanical) population growth.

Mechanical gain coefficient:

where is the average annual population.

Overall growth rate:

Private demographics e whether

In addition to general indicators for characterizing the natural movement of the population, there are partial coefficients reflecting internal processes, birth, death.

Fertility in demography is a central issue.

Fertility rates

The special fertility rate (female fertility rate) is the ratio of the number of live births (per year) to the average (average annual) number of women aged 15 to 50 years.

(20)

There is a relationship between the special and general coefficients, which can be expressed as follows:

where W is the proportion of women aged 15 to 49 of the total population. Lack of a special coefficient depending on its value on the characteristics of the age structure. True, already on the characteristics of the age structure within the female contingent (from 15 to 50 years), and not the entire population.

2. Age-specific fertility rates.

The age ratio is the ratio of the annual number of births to mothers of age "x" to the number of all women of this age:

Age ratios are calculated for one-year and five-year age groups. The most detailed - one-year age coefficients provide the best opportunities for analyzing the state and dynamics of fertility.

3. Total fertility rate.

The total fertility rate is a summary, final indicator. It shows how many children, on average, one woman gives birth to during her life from 15 to 50 years, provided that throughout the reproductive period of the life of a given generation, the age-specific fertility rates in each age group remain unchanged at the level of the reference period.

where n is the length of the age interval (with the same length of the interval).

The advantages of this indicator:

its value does not depend on the characteristics of the age structure of the population and the female reproductive contingent;

this indicator in one number makes it possible to assess the state of the birth rate from the standpoint of ensuring its reproduction of the population.

Mortality rates

1. Age-specific mortality rates.

The indicators are calculated separately for males and females and are the best for analyzing the status and trends of mortality. They are calculated for one-year and five-year age groups.

where is the age-specific mortality rate; - the number of deaths at age "x" in the calendar period (per year); - population size at age "x" in the middle of the billing period (average annual).

2. Infant mortality rate (up to 1 year):

where is the number of children who died under one year old, is the average number of children born this year. (24)

3. Infant mortality rate:

where is the number of children who died before 1 year of age born in a given year; R- the number of births in this and last year. (25)

This coefficient reflects the health of the nation, the state of medicine.

Coefficient of viability (Pokrovsky):

where t is the period. (26)

Persian calculusthe estimated population

The simplest is the way:

where K = const. (27)

Calculation of the population size based on the projected time series of the population size: if there is a clear trend, then it can be extended for the future:

Calculation of the population size based on the mortality table.

The life table is a system of interrelated indicators based on the probability of surviving to the next year for each age group. Survival rates require a lot of statistical information.

The probability of surviving to age “x + 1” for those who survived to age “x” is defined as the ratio of the number of survivors to age “x + 1” to the number of survivors to age “x”:

A coefficient is calculated for each generation.

In this case, the calculations of the number are carried out separately for each generation. The total population in a given year is equal to the sum of all generations living in that year.

The main directions of demographic statistics

In demographic statistics (population statistics), the following main directions can be distinguished:

3.2.1. Determination of the population size and its location in the country;

3.2.2. Study of the composition of the population;

3.2.3. Study of population movement:

3.2.3.1. Natural movement;

3.2.3.2. Mechanical movement;

Determination of population size and its placement on the territory of the country

The main sources of information about the population are:

1. Population censuses conducted regularly, usually every 10 years;

2. Current statistical accounting of demographic events (births, deaths, marriages, divorces), carried out continuously;

3. Current registers (lists, card indexes) of the population, also functioning continuously;

4. Sample and special surveys. For example, microcensus conducted in the middle of the intercensus period. The first such work was carried out in 1985, the second in February 1994.

1. Definition of a population census given by UN experts:

« Censuspopulation is a general process of collecting, summarizing, evaluating, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data about the entire population living at a certain point in time in a country or a clearly limited part of it. "

Although it is traditionally called the population census (or demographic census), in fact, the census shows a number of population structures that go beyond the boundaries of the subject of demography (ethnic and socio-class structure, population distribution by territory and migration, population distribution by sectors of the national economy and by occupation, unemployment, position in employment, etc.) To conduct the census, a special subdivision is created in the state statistics bodies. In his function, he leads the methodological and technical preparation of the census, the organization of its direct implementation, the processing of the results and their publication. In our country, such a subdivision is the Board of Censuses and Surveys of the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics.

Population censuses examine the following questions:

the number and distribution of the population across the country, by urban and rural types of population, population migration;

structure of the population by sex, age, marital status and marital status;

structure of the population by nationality, native and spoken language, by citizenship;

distribution of the population by level of education, by sources of livelihood, by branches of the national economy, by occupation and position in occupation;

the number and structure of families for a whole range of social characteristics;

fertility;

housing conditions of the population.

To avoid omissions and double counting, in censuses, categories of people are distinguished, depending on the nature of their residence in a given territory:

The actual population is the part of the population that is at the time of registration in a given settlement, regardless of the place of permanent residence.

Permanent population - the part of the population that permanently resides in a given settlement, regardless of the actual location at the time of registration.

Temporarily absent - persons who, at the time of registration, were temporarily absent from their place of permanent residence (for a period not exceeding 6 months).

Temporarily present - persons who were temporarily in this locality at the time of registration (for a period not exceeding 6 months).

Present population = Resident population + Temporarily presentNSny - Temporarily absent

Permanent population = Present population - Temporarily presentNSabsent + Temporarily absent

In our country, the number of both the present and the permanent population is taken into account. When planning the construction of housing, schools, hospitals, etc. proceed from the size of the resident population, and when ensuring the work of urban transport, trade enterprises - from the size of the existing population.

In the Russian Federation, the legal basis for conducting population censuses is government decrees that are specially adopted upon the submission of statistical agencies some time before each census, sometimes several years, sometimes months.

The last census took place in October 2010.

2. Current registration of vital events- births, deaths, marriages, divorces - based on the registration of these events. When registering demographic events, records of acts of civil status in special books are made in two copies, one is stored in the archive, and the second is transferred to the statistical authorities for processing and summarizing the information contained in it. However, this information, even in summary form, does not characterize the intensity of demographic processes. The volume of demographic events depends on the population that produces these events. The aggregates of demographic processes must be compared with the corresponding aggregates of the population (the number of births - with the number of women of a certain age and marital status, the number of deaths - with the population of the corresponding sex, age, nationality, etc.). Data on the size and composition of the population are given by the censuses. That. The data of the current accounting of demographic events form an inseparable unity with the data of the population censuses.

3. Current registers(lists, card indexes) of the population are kept by various administrative state bodies. These filing cabinets are created to perform specific tasks and usually cover not the entire population, but some of its groups (residents of microdistricts, categories subject to social care, etc.). All of these registers contain the legal population, which may not completely coincide with the actual population (real or permanent, as defined in the population censuses). Therefore, data from population lists are of limited use.

4. Sample and special surveys allow, at a lower cost than censuses, to conduct a study of the problem of interest in a small, selected group of population according to special rules, so that the results obtained can then be extended to the entire population.

The population size is a momentary indicator, that is, it always refers to an exact moment in time. This is not to say: the population in such and such a year. This is wrong because the population changes continuously throughout the year. In statistical directories, the population is usually given either on January 1 (or "at the beginning of the year", which means the same), or on July 1 (or "in the middle of the year"), or on December 31 (or "at the end of the year" ).

The resident population of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2010 was 141.9 million people, of which 103.7 million people (73%) are urban dwellers, and 38.2 million people (27%) are rural residents. The number of Russians in 2009 increased by 10.5 thousand people, or by 0.01%.

The increase in the number of residents of Russia has been observed for the first time since 1994 (in 2008, the population decreased by 104.9 thousand people, or 0.07%) and was formed both due to a significantly reduced natural decline and as a result of an increased migration growth. ... For 6 months of 2010 the population of Russia decreased by 52.3 thousand people, or 0.04% (in January-June 2009, the reduction in the number of Russians was 50.6 thousand people, or 0.04%).

In 2009, the population decreased in 56 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The most noticeable reduction took place in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (by 1.9%), the Pskov and Magadan regions (by 1.1%). The number of residents in the Smolensk, Novgorod, Tula and Tambov regions, the republics of Komi and Mordovia decreased by 0.8%; by 0.7% - in the Kirov, Sakhalin, Murmansk, Vladimir and Tver regions; by 0.6% -0.5% - in Ivanovo, Arkhangelsk, Kursk, Bryansk, Kostroma, Ryazan, Kurgan, Oryol, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanovsk, Penza, Lipetsk regions and the Republic of Karelia.

In 27 constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2009, there was an increase in the number of residents (in 2008 - in 24, 2007 - in 23, 2006 - in 14 constituent entities of the Russian Federation).

Changes in the population in 2009 had practically no effect on the settlement structure. More than a quarter (26%) of Russians live in the Central Federal District, where the population density is highest at 57 people per sq. km. (on average in Russia, the population density is 8.3 people per 1 sq. km.). The North Caucasian Federal District is almost also densely populated, with a population density of 54 people per 1 sq. Km. The most sparsely populated by January 1, 2010 were the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Kamchatka Territory, Magadan Region, Nenets, Chukotka and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, where the population density was less than 1 person per 1 sq. km.

Study of the composition of the population

The age structure of the population plays an active role in all social processes and, of course, in demographic ones as well. But besides, it has an active influence on the value of all demographic indicators. So, with a young age structure - i.e. with a relatively high percentage of young people in the population, if other conditions are equal, the population will have a high marriage and birth rate and a low mortality rate (since, quite naturally, young people are less likely to get sick and even less likely to die). In turn, demographic processes have a strong impact on the age structure of the population. Thus, the decline in the birth rate has among its consequences the so-called demographic aging of the population, i.e. an increase in the composition of the population of its elderly part. Thus, the age structure of the population is in close interaction with all demographic processes. One of the important consequences of this interaction is that the age structure accumulates and stores a stock of demographic inertia, the potential for population growth, due to which the movement of the population (with a positive or negative charge) continues for a long time after the driving forces of this movement have already dried up. or changed their direction to the opposite. Therefore, the influence of the age structure is always taken into account when analyzing the dynamics of demographic processes and, using special methods, is isolated from the combined action of many factors affecting the indicators. demography statistics population russian

The age structure of the Russian population is strongly distorted by the historical upheavals of the past. For this reason, even in periods of evolutionary development similar to modern ones, many years after the shocks, various "floors" of the age pyramid - certain age groups - experience multidirectional changes. This multidirectionality turns out to be a circumstance that is far from indifferent from a demographic, economic or social point of view. The age composition of the Russian population is characterized by a significant gender disparity. As of January 1, 2010, the number of men amounted to 65.6 million people, women - 76.3 million people (10.7 million people, or 16.2% more). The sex ratio over the past year has not changed: by the beginning of 2010, there were 1162 women per 1000 men. The numerical excess of women over men in the population is observed from the age of 29 and increases with age. This unfavorable ratio has developed due to the continuing high level of premature mortality in men. In the Novgorod, Ivanovo, Tula, Yaroslavl, Tver, Vladimir, Smolensk, Nizhny Novgorod regions, St. Petersburg, there are 1246-1221 women per 1000 men. Only in the Kamchatka Territory and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug there are fewer women: there are 986-949 women per 1000 men. According to international criteria, a population is considered old if the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the total population exceeds 7%. Currently, almost every eighth Russian, i.e. 12.9% of the country's residents are aged 65 or over. The process of demographic aging of the population is much more characteristic of women. In the structure of the population of the above-mentioned ages, women make up more than two thirds (68.7%). The average age of the country's residents is 38.9 years (in 2009 - 38.8 years), men, respectively, 36.2 years (36.1), women - 41.2 years (41.1). The average age of the population over 40 years is noted in 28 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, it is the highest in the regions of the European part of Russia: in Tula, Ryazan, Tambov, Voronezh, Pskov, Tver, Penza, years. Petersburg and Moscow - 42.2 - 41.1 years. Every fifth resident of Russia (30.7 million people as of January 1, 2010) is of retirement age. The number of children and adolescents under 16 years of age is 7.9 million people, or 25.6% less than those over working age. The preponderance of older people takes place in 62 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the largest: in the Tula region and St. Petersburg - 2 times, Ryazan and Voronezh regions - 1.9 times, Tambov, Leningrad, Ivanovo, Penza, Pskov, Yaroslavl regions, Moscow - 1.8 times.

The number of the population aged 0-15 years has been decreasing for 18 years (1990-2007). In 2008, due to an increase in the number of births, the number of births in this age group increased slightly - by 44 thousand, or 0.2%, in 2009 - by 313 thousand, or 1.4%. The lowest share of children aged 0-15 years in the total population is observed in Moscow and Saint Petersburg - 13.0-12.9% (in Russia as a whole - 16.1%). The population of working age, compared with the beginning of 2009, decreased by 0.9 million or 1.0% (in 2008 by 0.4 million or 0.5%) and amounted to the beginning of 2010. 88.4 million people. The demographic load indicator increased to 606 people per 1000 working age population (in 2009 - 590 respectively), incl. load by children - 259 (253), and people of retirement age - 347 (337).

The sex ratio in the population is an important factor in nuptiality (i.e. the process of marriage) and the formation of the family structure of the population. In demography, two types of relative indicators are used to characterize the sex ratio. The first type is the percentage of the population of a particular gender in the total population. The second type of sex ratio indicator is the correlation of the population of one sex with the population of the opposite sex with subsequent multiplication of the quotient by 1000. The sex structure of the population is influenced by three main factors: 1) the sex ratio among newborns (biological constant); 2) sex differences in mortality; 3) sex differences in the intensity of population migration.

Study of population movement

Population movements can have different effects on certain areas, depending on the economic situation. However, most of the population movement is associated with economic growth due to an increase in the labor force and increased demand for goods and services. This movement, however, comes in the form of both immigration and emigration. There are two types of movement:

Natural;

Mechanical (migration);

Natural movement of the population

Natural movement of the population is a generalized name for the totality of births and deaths that change the population in the so-called natural way. The natural movement of the population also includes marriages and divorces; although they do not directly change the population size, they are counted in the same order as birth and death.

A decrease in the rate of depopulation, and then a slight increase in the population in 2009, was facilitated by a reduction in the natural decline in the population. In 2009, the natural decline was 249 thousand people, this is the lowest figure in the last 16 years.

Russia is considered to be one of the countries with the highest mortality rates. It is characterized by one of the largest gender gaps in life expectancy at birth (11.9 years in 2009), which is a consequence of the high mortality rate among men of working age. Only in the last four years has the situation started to improve somewhat. The indicator of life expectancy at birth in 2009 compared to 2006 increased for men by 2.4 years, for women - by 1.4 years. The increase in life expectancy in men was mainly due to a decrease in mortality in the working age, in women - in the working age and older than the working age.

The main problems of the demographic development of Russia remain high mortality from external causes and diseases of the circulatory system. Alcohol abuse has a big impact on this. From causes directly related to alcohol (alcoholic cardiomyopathy, accidental alcohol poisoning, alcoholic liver disease, chronic alcoholism, alcoholic psychoses, degeneration of the nervous system caused by alcohol, chronic pancreatitis of alcoholic etiology) in 2009, 50.5 thousand men died and 18, 1 thousand women. However, its effect on mortality from other causes is significantly higher. Excessive alcohol consumption is most obviously associated with high mortality from external causes of death, however, the connection can also be traced when it comes to premature mortality from many diseases, in the etiology of which the exogenous component is artificially increased.

The highest indicators of life expectancy remain in the republics of the North Caucasus and Moscow. In these regions, the life expectancy at birth for men in 2009 exceeded 69 years, for women - 77 years. The lowest life expectancy for both men and women is noted in the Republic of Tyva and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (for men it does not reach 55 years, for women - 66 years).

A decrease in mortality occurred in all main classes of causes of death, except for neoplasms, and therefore, in the structure of mortality, this class confidently rose to second place after diseases of the circulatory system, which until 2006 was retained by external causes of death (see Table 3).

Table 3. NSmortality indicatorsby main classes of causes of death

	Thousand people	Share (%) in the total number of deaths
Total dead
including from:
system diseasescirculation
neoplasms
external causes of CMRti
respiratory diseasesaniya
organ diseasesdigestion
other diseases

Among all the deaths, almost 30% are people of working age (more than 560 thousand people a year), of which 80% are men. The first place among the causes of death of the working-age population is occupied by the causes associated with diseases of the circulatory system, external causes - in second. In terms of mortality from external causes, suicides, traffic injuries, murders, and alcohol poisoning are distinguished. They account for more than 50% of deaths from all external causes of death. In 2009, the infant mortality rate continued to decline. The infant mortality rate in 2009 dropped to 8.1 deaths under 1 year of age per 1000 live births. Fertility rates show positive dynamics in the last intercensal period. In 2009, 1.8 million children were born, which is 47.8 thousand people (3%) more than in 2008. The birth rate in Russia has been growing since 2000, but its increase in 2007-2009. was especially significant and, what is especially important, covered mainly middle and older age groups of mothers who make the main contribution to the birth of second and subsequent children. In 2009, a sample survey "Family and Fertility" was conducted in 30 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The sample consisted of 2,000 respondents. A quarter of the women surveyed who gave birth to their second child in 2007-2009 noted that this was in one way or another influenced by the beginning of the implementation of demographic policy measures. The total fertility rate in 2009 was 1.5 children per woman of reproductive age. In the Republic of Altai, the Republic of Tyva and the Chechen Republic, the total fertility rate exceeds the value required for simple reproduction of the population (2.3 - 3.4). The lowest birth rate is observed in the Leningrad region (less than 1.2).

In the total number of births, the proportion of those born to mothers who were not in a registered marriage has slightly decreased (from 28.0% in 2007 to 26.1% in 2009).

Marriages and divorces also belong to the natural movement.

Marriage is the process of forming married (married) couples, which includes both first and repeated marriages. Divorce is the process of the dissolution of married couples due to the dissolution of marriage (divorce).

In the past 2009, according to Rosstat, more than 1 million rubles were recorded in Russia. 200 thousand marriages, including in Moscow - 92322 marriages, in St. Petersburg - 49121 marriages. The increase in the number of marriages relative to 2008 is 10% in Moscow and 5% in St. Petersburg. The most active age for marriage is between 25 and 34 years old. At this time, almost half of all marriages take place. Unfortunately, we state that the same picture is observed in the area of ​​divorce. It should be noted that in the period under review, from 2000 to 2009, a steady tendency towards an increase in the number of registered marriages is noticeable in cities separately and in the country as a whole. In contrast to St. Petersburg, where the trend line is clearly traced upward, the Moscow indicators are increasing in waves, every second year. In general, compared to 2000, the number of marriages in Moscow, as well as in Russia, increased by 36%, and in St. Petersburg - by 50%. In 2008, Moscow set a kind of record. If in 2007 residents of the capital created a family with citizens of 102 countries, then in 2008 already with citizens of 106 countries. Among non-CIS countries, the leaders are Turkey, Germany, the USA, Israel and Great Britain. Well, among the CIS countries, Ukraine is in first place, with its citizens about 4,000 marriages. In total, 12,000 international marriages were concluded in Moscow in 2008. With regard to divorces, the figure in the country as a whole, unfortunately, is steadily growing. In the two capitals, on the contrary, it is kept at about the same level. The ratio between marriages and divorces is within 80%, namely, in the country as a whole, the indicator is 70, in St. Petersburg - 80, in Moscow, marriages are registered almost 2 times more than divorces.

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Option 1
1. What are the main areas of study of demography:

A. Composition and migration of the population.

B. Population by different age and sex groups.

C. Natural and mechanical movement of the population.

D. Population statistics and dynamics.

E. Pendulum and internal migration.
2. Population statistics studies:

A. The size and composition of the population by social and biological characteristics.

B. General and age-specific fertility.

C. Geographic features of the birth rate and composition of the population.

D. Migration in different regions of the country.

E. Fertility, mortality and population reproduction.
3.Population dynamics studies:

A. Mechanical and natural movement of the population;

B. Type and size of population;

C. Reproduction of the population.

D. Migration processes and the birth rate of the population.

E. Natural movement and birth rate of the population.
4. The natural movement of the population is characterized by the following indicators:

A. Fertility, marriage, divorce, infant mortality, primary morbidity.

B. Natural increase, average life expectancy at birth, morbidity, mortality.

C. Fertility, mortality, natural population growth, average life expectancy at birth.

E. Fertility, mortality, primary morbidity, general morbidity.

E. Marital fertility, total mortality, fertility, pathological affection.
5. To calculate the total fertility rate, use the following formula:

A. Number of live births in a given year / average annual population.

B. Number of live births in a given year / number of live births in the previous year.

C. Number of live births and deaths in a given year / number of live births in a given year.

E. Number of births and deaths in a given year / average annual population.

E. Average annual population in a given year / Average annual population in the previous year.
6. Public health means:

A. Mental and physical health status of the population in relation to the environment.

B. Medico-demographic and social category, reflecting the physical, mental, social well-being of the life of people of certain social communities.

C. Mental and physical health of the working population in relation to the environment.
7.To calculate the crude death rate, use the following formula:

A. Number of deaths in a given year + number of births in a given year / population.

B. Average annual population in a given year / Average annual population in the previous year.

C. Number of deaths per year / number of live births in a given year.

E. 2/3 deaths in a given year + 1/3 deaths in the previous year / population.

E. Number of deaths in a given year / average annual population.
8. What requirements should the primary statistical material meet for calculating average values?

A. Absence of fluctuations of the studied trait.

B. Sufficient number of observations, qualitatively homogeneous population.

C. The presence of a "null" hypothesis.

D. The presence of a grouping of a sign.

E. Absence of the trait under study.
9. The numerator of the fraction is the number of children with Down syndrome living in the city of A. May 1, 2013. The denominator is the total number of children living in the same city on May 1, 2013. As a result of the calculation, we get:

A. Prevalence of diseases at a point in time.

B. Primary morbidity.

C. Pathological affection.

E. The structure of morbidity.

E. Prevalence of diseases per year.
10.To calculate the overall infant mortality rate, use the following formula:

A. Number of deaths under 1 year of age in a given year / average annual population.

B. Number of deaths in the 1st week of life in a given year / number of live births in a given year.

C. Number of deaths in the 1st month of life in a given year / number of live births in a given year.

E. Number of live births in a given year + live births and deaths in the first 7 days / annual average population.

E. Number of deaths under 1 year of age in a given year / number of live births in a given year.
11.Name the primary statistical document on the basis of which the mortality rate of the population is studied:

A. Medical certificate of death (form 106 / u-08).

C. Protocol of pathological examination (f.013 / y).

C. Coupon of a patient who received medical assistance on an outpatient basis (f.025-1 / y).

D. Information about the medical institution (f.30).

E. Statistical card of those who left the hospital (form 066 / y-02).
12. Describe the content of the ratio indicators:

A. Relationships between dissimilar quantities.

B. Division of the aggregate into its constituent parts.

C. The frequency of the phenomenon in the environment in which it occurs.

E. The ratio of each of the compared values ​​to the original

the level taken as 1 or 100%.

E. Ratio of the values ​​being compared.
13. According to the source of financing in health care, the following models are distinguished:

A. Federal financing model; integration financing model.

B. Integration financing model; contract financing model; reimbursement model; model of managed care.

C. Budgetary financing model; federal funding model.

E. Contract financing model; reimbursement model; model of managed care.

E. Budgetary financing model; insurance financing model; private funding model.
14. To calculate the special fertility rate (fertility), use the following formula:

A. Number of live births in a given year / average annual number of women aged 15-49;

B. Number of children born alive and dead in a given year to women of reproductive age / average annual population.

C. Number of women aged 15-49 / average annual population.

E. Number of children born alive and dead in a given year / average annual population.

E. Number of children born alive in a given year / number of live births in the previous year.
15. To calculate the maternal mortality rate, use the following formula:

A. The number of dead pregnant women (from 12 weeks of pregnancy), parturient women, parturient women (within 42 days after the termination of pregnancy) / total number of pregnant women.

B. Number of pregnant women who died (since the beginning of pregnancy), parturient women, parturient women (within 42 days after the termination of pregnancy) / total number of live births

C. The number of deaths of pregnant women (from 28 weeks of pregnancy), parturient women, parturient women (within 56 days after the termination of pregnancy) / total number of births.

E. The number of pregnant women who died (since the beginning of pregnancy), parturient women, parturient women (within 56 days after the termination of pregnancy) / total number of live births.

E. The number of pregnant women who died (since the beginning of pregnancy), parturient women, parturient women (within 42 days after the termination of pregnancy) / total number of stillbirths.
16. Choose the most accurate definition of financial management in health care:

A. It is a financial system of methods and forms of market mechanism management in the field of health finance.

C. Financial management is the organization of the forms of financial settlements of a medical institution.

C. Financial management is the achievement of financial stability and solvency of the health care facility.

D. Financial management - a system of principles, methods, techniques, forms of management of the market mechanism in the field of finance and management of the movement of financial resources of a health care facility by financial relations arising in the process of movement of financial resources.

E. Financial management is the organization of forms of financial settlements of medical organizations.
17. The optimal management style is:

A. Democratic.

D. Dynamic.

E. Mixed.
18. The most effective style of team leadership at the stage of developing the concept of activities:

V. Democratic.

E. Democratic combined with liberal.
19. The first stage of marketing activities is:

A. Analysis of the current market situation.

B. Selecting the target market.

C. Analysis of the current situation in the industry.

D. Development of a marketing mix.

E. Implementation of marketing activities.
20. The process of formation and implementation of preventive programs includes the following main phases:

A. Planning, implementation, monitoring, evaluation.

B. Analysis, planning, monitoring and evaluation.

C. Planning, implementation, monitoring, evaluation.

E. Analysis, planning, implementation, monitoring, evaluation.

E. Analysis, planning, implementation, evaluation.
21. Public health and health care is:

A. The science of health system strategy and tactics to improve public health.

B. Science of the prevention and timely treatment of diseases.

C. The science of maintaining the health of the entire population in order to improve well-being.

D. The science of strategy and tactics of the health system in interaction with the environment.
22. When examining a 7-year-old child, a pediatrician diagnosed diphtheria. How long does it take for a doctor to send the corresponding registration document to the hygiene and epidemiology center?

A. Up to 24 hours.

B. Up to 6 hours.

C. Up to 12 hours.

D. Up to 36 hours.

E. Up to 48 hours.
23. How is the performance of a manager assessed?

A. By efficiency in the field of managerial decision-making.

B. By the level of education.

C. By work experience.

D. By the level of the position held.

E. By the level of education and work experience.
24. Payment of insurance premiums for compulsory medical insurance (MHI) of the non-working population is carried out by:

A. Local authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

B. Compulsory social insurance funds.

C. Pension and Social Fund of the Russian Federation.

E. State authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (RF).

E. Federal funds.
25. Marketing in health care means activities in the field of:

A. Market for medical services or goods.

B. Providing social support to children.

C. Providing social support to the poor.

D. Organization of ambulance.

E. Prevention of disease.
26. Every citizen insured under compulsory health insurance (MHI) receives a medical insurance policy. The insurance policy for compulsory medical insurance applies to:

A. The entire territory of the Russian Federation (RF).

C. The entire territory of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation.

C. The territory of the administrative region at the place of residence of the citizen.

E. The territory of the administrative region at the place of residence of the citizen and beyond.

E. The entire territory of the Russian Federation and beyond.
27. The management of the medical institution decided to improve the milestone internal quality control of structural units, with an emphasis on the set of performance indicators and defect indicators used. Find the most appropriate organizational method for the situation.

A. Licensing of medical institutions.

B. Use of outcome models.

C. Certification of medical personnel.

D. Current control over the work of units.

E. Standardization of medical care.
28. Management decision is:

A. The form of action, including norms, rules, recommendations and methods, and establishes subordination.

B. Mode of action on the system.

C. A social act that includes setting a goal, listing ways and methods to achieve it.

E. A logical, psychological, legal act deployed in time, aimed at achieving a goal.

E. Choice of a course of action and a declaration of the desired results.
29. The order is:

A. Executive document, which is issued by the head of the enterprise, organization on the basis of one-man management and within

their competence.

B. An act that defines the basic rules of the organization and

activities of institutions and organizations.

C. A legal act that is adopted on a collegial basis to resolve the most important issues.

E. Document outlining the rules that govern

special sides of the activity.

E. Document issued on current issues.
30. What are the main sources of financing for compulsory health insurance (CHI):

A. State budget, personal income of citizens.

B. Contributions from employers, state budget.

C. Personal income of citizens, contributions from employers.

E. Profits of enterprises, voluntary donations from citizens.

E. State budget, voluntary donations from citizens.

31. In accordance with the Federal Law "On the Fundamentals of Health Protection of Citizens in the Russian Federation", primary health care (PHC) can be provided in the following conditions:

A. On an outpatient basis and in a day hospital setting.

B. Outside a medical organization, on an outpatient and day hospital basis.

C. In rural and urban outpatient settings.

D. Outside a medical organization, as well as outpatient and inpatient settings.

E. In outpatient and inpatient settings.
32. The high quality of the management process is provided by three main factors that must first be used in this process, name them:

A. The reliability of information and the timeliness of its receipt, the methodology and technology of development and decision-making, the competence of the manager.

B. Availability of feedback, seniority of the manager, methodology and technology of development and decision-making.

C. Competence of the manager, availability of feedback, high reliability of information and timeliness of its receipt.

D. Work experience of the leader, competence of the leader, methodology and technology of development and decision-making.

C. Methodology and technology of development and decision-making, the presence of feedback, the age of the leader.
33. When examining a 9-year-old child, a pediatrician diagnosed diphtheria. What medical document should a doctor issue in this case?

A. The history of the child's development (f. No. 112/1).

C. Report on medical care for children (f. No. 31).

C. Emergency message about an infectious disease, food, acute occupational poisoning, an unusual reaction to vaccination (f. No. 058 / y).

D. Outpatient medical card (form No. 025 / y).

E. Coupon of a patient who received medical care on an outpatient basis (form 025-1 / y).
34. In accordance with the Federal Law "On the Fundamentals of Health Protection of Citizens in the Russian Federation", the types of medical care include:

A. Primary health care (PHC); specialized, including high-tech, medical care; ambulance, including specialized ambulance, medical care; palliative care.

B. PHC and specialized, including high-tech, medical care.

C. PHC; specialized, including high-tech, medical care; ambulance, including specialized ambulance, medical care.

D. PHC; specialized, including high-tech, medical care; emergency; palliative care.

E. PHC; specialized medical care; emergency; sanatorium.
35. In accordance with the Federal Law "On Compulsory Medical Insurance in the Russian Federation", the subjects of compulsory medical insurance (CHI) are:

A. Policyholders, medical insurance organizations, insured persons.

B. Policyholders, medical insurance organizations, medical organizations,

C. Policyholders, the Federal MHI Fund, insured persons.

D. Insurance medical organizations, medical organizations, compulsory health insurance funds.

E. Medical insurance organizations, medical organizations, territorial compulsory health insurance funds.
36. For what purpose is the insurance fund formed?

A. Formation of cash reserves at the expense of insurance premiums.

B. Payment of taxes.

C. Compensation for Damage.

D. Lending to individuals and legal entities.

E. Ensuring financial stability.

I. Payment of dividends.
37. What primary accounting statistical document is used to register a new case of malignant neoplasm?

A. Information about patients with malignant neoplasms (f. 35).

C. Notification of a patient with a diagnosis of malignant neoplasm established for the first time in his life (f. 090 / y).

C. Control card of dispensary observation of a patient with malignant neoplasm (f. 030-6 / y).

D. Registration card of a patient with malignant neoplasm (f. 030 / y).

E. Information about diseases of malignant neoplasms (f.7).
38. Who enters into a cooperation agreement with a health insurance company?

A. Voluntary Medical Insurance Fund (VHI).

B. Public health administration body of the constituent entity of the Federation.

C. Social institutions.

E. Compulsory Health Insurance Fund (MHI)

E. Health care institutions.
39. What types of medical care are provided in outpatient facilities (units) of the 1st level?

A. Primary health care (PHC) with elements of specialized care.

B. Only specialized.

C. PHC only.

D. Ambulance.

E. Symptomatic.

40. Indicate the goal of the "Concept for the development of health care in the Russian Federation (RF) until 2020".

A. An increase in the life expectancy of the population up to 75 years, the formation of a healthy lifestyle for the population, an increase in the quality and availability of medical care guaranteed to the population of the Russian Federation.

C. Preserving and improving people's health, as well as reducing direct and indirect losses to society by reducing the incidence and mortality of the population of the Russian Federation.

C. Reduction of terms of restoration of the lost health of the population by introducing modern methods of prevention, diagnosis and treatment into medical practice.

E. Improvement of the equipment of laboratories and technical equipment of diagnostic departments in order to improve the quality of medical and preventive measures.

E. Improving the state of the external environment and quality of life, as the main type of prevention of diseases.
41. State the adult population limit for the urban therapy site.

A. 2500 people.

B. 1900 people.

S. 1955 people.

D. 2200 people.

E. 1,700 people.
42. Note the indicators for assessing primary prevention:

A. Increase in the number of healthy individuals in the population.

B. Dynamics of primary morbidity.

C. The frequency of reduction of acute diseases and their transition to chronic.

D. Dynamics of disability.

E. Dynamics of general morbidity.
43. Secondary prevention is aimed at:

A. Development of rehabilitation programs.

B. Reducing mortality and the frequency of deviations in the vital activity of the organism of each person.

C. Functioning of multilevel screening systems.

E. Reduction of primary disability.

E. Possibly early detection of deviations in the vital activity of the organism of each person in order to carry out the appropriate correction.
44. What primary accounting statistical document is used to register a new case of tuberculosis?

A. Notification of a patient with a diagnosis of tuberculosis for the first time in his life, with a relapse of tuberculosis (f. 089 / u-tube).

B. Control card of dispensary observation of contingents of anti-tuberculosis institutions (f. 030-4 / y).

C. Information about patients with tuberculosis (f. 33).

D. Information about newly diagnosed patients and relapses of tuberculosis diseases (f. 7-tube).

E. Medical card of a patient with tuberculosis (f. 081 / y).
45. Medical insurance as a system of measures to ensure the activities of insurance medicine by forms is divided into voluntary and compulsory. What services for the population are provided by compulsory health insurance (CHI)?

A. Medical assistance in case of natural disasters.

B. Medical assistance in full.

C. Additional services in addition to guaranteed health insurance.

E. The volume of medical care socially guaranteed by the state.

E. Medical services for the implementation of rehabilitation programs.
46. ​​In accordance with the current legislation of the Russian Federation (RF), all children must be registered from the date of birth at the place of their birth or the place of residence of their parents within:

A. 1 month.

B. 2 months.

S. 3 months.

D. 12 days.

E. 15 days.
47. In accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation (RF), death is subject to mandatory registration at the registry office at the place of residence of the deceased (in the village - in local authorities) on the basis of the conclusion of a medical institution from the moment of death or discovery of a corpse no later than what day?

E. 3.
48. On what fundamental principles is the organization of the activities of medical organizations (MO) based in the Russian Federation (RF)?

A. Partition, continuity and phasing, preventive focus, availability.

B. Preventive focus, professionalism, compassion, accessibility.

C. Partition, continuity and staging, preventive focus, professionalism,

E. Continuity and phasing, preventive focus, compassion, accessibility.

F. Professionalism, prevention focus, accessibility, compassion.
49. Name a medical institution that implements the full range of measures to prevent HIV infection and AIDS:

A. Center for the Prevention and Control of AIDS.

B. Narcological dispensary.

C. Consultative and diagnostic polyclinic.

D. Dermatovenerologic dispensary.

E. Center for Medical Prevention.
50. What is the name of the principle of activity of medical organizations (MO), when the polyclinic is the first stage in the technological process of treating a patient (polyclinic - inpatient hospital - rehabilitation treatment) and patients usually go to the hospital only with a doctor's referral, and from the hospital information about the treatment carried out is transmitted to plot?

A. Preventive focus.

B. Availability.

C. Distinctness.

D. Continuity and phasing.

E. Professionalism.