It is possible that the billionaire was not mistaken in his predictions, many experts agree that there are prerequisites for a crisis. For example, Konstantin Balabushko, CEO of Sky Bond Group, points out that strong NASDA indices are causing concern.
"It is difficult to say exactly when the market reversal will take place, according to my subjective assessment, it may take another 2-3 years. interest rates Federal Reserve, the US market is growing. Difficulties are likely to begin in developing countries Oh. If a default is declared, it could set off a chain reaction and lead to the transition of investors from long bonds and stocks to short-term. Then the yield on one-year bonds will begin to fall, and the spread between 10-year and one-year bonds will return to normal. Broad market may sink strongly, the NASDAQ index of high-tech companies, which shows exponential growth, is especially wary, in this sector you need to be especially careful or use options as a hedge, "he said.
Roman Tkachuk, senior analyst, also believes that a crisis is likely in the coming years. "A number of factors indicate that in the coming years the global financial crisis is quite likely - bubbles in the American stock market, the real estate market and China's loans, geopolitical tensions in the world, the gradual curtailment of stimulating programs by central banks. In addition, there is the magic of numbers - previous financial crises happened in 1998 and 2008, "explains Roman Tkachuk.
The expert notes that, like 10 and 20 years ago, in 2018 the reason financial crisis may be the increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve. This process will lead to a flow of funds from risky assets (stock, commodity markets and emerging markets) to risk-free ones. For example, in 1998, problems arose in the SEAD countries, and in 2008 - in the American mortgage market.
"The new crisis may be quite comparable in scale with the crisis of 2008. But it is already difficult to predict in more detail - this is fortune-telling on the coffee grounds," jokes expert Konstantin Balabushko.
Who else will get hit
The crisis always strikes the weakest first. Tkachuk points out that now such "holes" are the markets of developing countries, primarily Turkey and Argentina, which, along with other developing countries, have taken out many foreign currency loans. Now, against the backdrop of an outflow of funds and weakening of national currencies, they may face financial problems. This can lead to the exit of investors from all risky assets, then many markets can be affected by a chain reaction.
"Another potential threat is the real estate market and the Hong Kong credit market, where bubbles are inflated. If these bubbles burst, the crisis may spread to China, and from there to the whole world," the expert said.
At the same time, Konstantin Balabushko points out that Russia is in a much more advantageous position and the crisis will definitely not affect it in the first place. In comparison with the same Turkey, the country has much more significant reserves, and also has one of the lowest debt burdens in the world. For comparison: Russia's debt is 12.34% of GDP, Turkey's debt is 54.8%, and its gold and foreign exchange reserves are 5 times less than that of Russia.
"The growth of the FRS rates puts more pressure on countries with a high debt burden, Russia does not have such a problem, but there is no growth either. That is, our state of the economy is stable stagnation, GDP growth is 1% per year, while Turkey is this is a bad GDP growth of about 4% ", - said Konstantin Balabushko.
At the same time, he points out that Russian exporters, even in a very bad scenario and the onset of hyperinflation, can win, because they receive income in foreign currency, and expenses are incurred in rubles.
What to do
In order not to remain in the red during the alleged crisis, experts advise not to concentrate their assets in Russia. According to Balabushko, there are three ways out: go to the cash (but not to Russian bank), buy bonds with a rating of at least BBB with maturity by 2021 or products with 100% capital protection for 3 years.
“In the first case, I would immediately recommend opening an alternate airfield abroad and not concentrating capital domestically. If tomorrow you are forced to convert your dollars into rubles, then will cash be a protective tool? you will continue to receive coupons, and closer to the maturity date you will not only be with your money, but also earn a little on top.In this scenario, you can count on a yield of 3.5-4% USD per annum until 2020-21. In the third case, the idea is based on That is, you collect a "structure": 90% on your deposit, and 10% on the purchase of an option. An option is the investor's right to buy an asset at a predetermined price. That is, if the market continues to grow, then you receive income at the end of the term of such a structure . If the market falls, then after 3-4 years you will receive a body of investment. So you will earn in any case, "- he advises.
Alpari analyst Roman Tkachuk advises to go into currency. Bonds, in his opinion, will not become a reliable instrument: “An investor should remember that there are no defensive assets on the stock market in times of crisis, including even such as gold and bonds. In this connection, the most reliable way would be to fix all risky assets and access to the basket of currencies, consisting of the US dollar and the euro ".
Vadim Merkulov, analyst at IK "", draws attention to the fact that now the American market is trading with a small discount due to the risks of a trade war between the United States and China, so investors, in his opinion, should keep their investments in the American market: "Investments in the American market will allow Russians to protect themselves from a jump in the currency and unexpected inflationary risks of the ruble. In the event of an approaching crisis, I do not recommend investors to use leverage. By selling their own assets, novice investors, even taking into account panic, will have time to sell their assets and will not lose a lot. I also advise you to trade only liquid instruments - profitability there is lower, but in case of panic an investor will be able to sell them at a better price compared to illiquid shares. "
He, like Balabushko, advises novice investors to pay attention to hedging their position. “A hedge is insurance against a fall if all your stocks are bought for growth. In this case, a novice investor can take put options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). SPY is a fund that copies the movement of the S&P 500 index. if a crisis starts, SPY will fall, and put options will rise in price, which compensates for part of the fall. Such insurance will cost the investor about 1% to 5% ", - Vadim Merkulov points out.
The crisis is not today
GK analyst Sergei Drozdov sees the main catalysts for global financial unrest in the tension in trade relations between the US and China and corporate debts of American companies. But it is too early to talk about the global crisis, according to the expert.
"It is likely that after the summer growth and correction, the fall of 2018 overseas stock indicators may complete on a positive note and even set historical highs. But already in 2019, when the effect of Trump's tax reform will fade away and the rate of the American regulator will approach 3% of GDP, the United States risks losing about 0.5%, which could cause talk of an impending recession and provoke a collapse in world markets, "he thinks.
Vadim Merkulov does not believe in the approaching global crisis at all: “The economy is now in excellent condition: GDP growth was 4.2%, inflation was 2.7%, unemployment was 3.9%, salary growth was 2.9%, etc., therefore, there is now a very poor basis for the onset of the crisis. Of course, the black swan scenario, when the financial crisis hits abruptly and unexpectedly, cannot be ruled out, but it is safe to say that good macroeconomic performance will soften the global financial crisis. "
He agrees with Drozdov that it is worth fearing instability in the growth of the American economy at the end of 2019, which will be caused by protectionist policies and a trade war with the United States. And this in the future may lead to a crisis, although now, in his opinion, there are no prerequisites for this.
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Burnt in milk, the financiers gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos are blowing on the water. Leaders of leading banks and investment funds are concerned not so much with the meteoric rise of stock markets, but rather with the complacency of investors. In addition, they fear a rapid rise in interest rates by central banks, which will take many participants in the economy by surprise. “Usually when people are happy and confident, something bad happens,” worries David Rubenstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group private equity fund.
“I have a bit of a feeling that we were in 2006, when we were all wondering if we were able to solve the riddle of economic crises,” said Jes Staley, CEO of Barclays Bank, at the session “The Next Financial Crisis?” ... - In the economy, the situation now seems to be very good. But monetary policy as if we are still depressed. "
If central banks start to actively raise rates in the coming year, "many of those who have borrowed will not be able to repay them," warned Anna Richards, CEO of M&G Investments: "Markets do not price this opportunity." Governments are overly indebted, and unexpected geopolitical shocks are possible, Rubenstein added. The likely acceleration of inflation and faster rate hikes could create problems for countries with low growth rates and large debt, such as Italy and Japan, warned Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University.
The synchronized growth of the world economy began last year. According to the IMF, all seven largest economies in the world - the United States, China, Germany, Japan, France, Great Britain, India - grew by more than 1.5%. And for the first time since the financial crisis, all 45 countries tracked by the OECD grew. The IMF raised its forecast for GDP growth to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, noting "the most full-scale simultaneous acceleration of global growth since 2010."
In the past, periods of such synchronous growth have lasted for several years. The world economy grew at about 4% per year in 1984-1989. and in 2004-2007. If the geopolitical situation does not deteriorate, the rapid economic recovery could last for at least a couple of years, according to Jay Bryson, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities (quoted in The Wall Street Journal).
But there are also major differences. In the past, the recovery from the recession has been more active, the WEF experts pointed out in their report on global risks. Despite the growth in global GDP and trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) plummeted by 16% in 2017 to $ 1.52 trillion from $ 1.81 trillion, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said; back in June of that year, a 5% growth was projected. The cost of announced new projects fell 32% to $ 571 billion, the lowest since 2003. This is a negative long-term indicator, according to the report. In 2018, UNCTAD expects FDI to rise to $ 1.8 trillion.
Another difference: usually the economy becomes more open when the situation improves, but in 2017, according to Global Trade Alert, governments introduced 642 protectionist measures - almost twice as much as in 2010, while the US accounted for 143 measures, 59 % more than in 2016. Democracy also parted with the economic situation: in 2017, 71 countries deteriorated in the Freedom in the World rating, compiled by Freedom House, and only 35 improved. The level of freedom has been declining since 2006, and the process has accelerated especially in recent years.
Michael Korbat, CEO of Citigroup, worries about the ambiguity of the economic situation, where, among other things, it is unclear how the disappearance of easy money from central banks will affect both the economy and the markets, as well as the lack of reaction of the latter to serious events such as the current budget problems in the United States (with Many government agencies were closed from Saturday to Monday because Congress did not find funding for them), the election victory of Donald Trump and the Brexit vote. “When there is a new downturn (and it does), it is likely to be sharper than if we were able to blow off some steam along the way,” said Korbat at a session in Davos.
President-Actionist
Constant tweets from President Donald Trump that stock market has reached new heights, could undermine the willingness of American regulators to deal with excesses and extremes in financial system, warned Fang Xinghai, Vice Chairman of the China Market Regulatory Commission valuable papers... If a bubble inflates, regulators "may not act so quickly" if the president is driving the market up with his statements, Fan added. Kenneth Rogoff shares his concerns. "Will he [Trump] put pressure on regulators?" - he asked a rhetorical question.
The link between political stability and economic growth, characteristic of past decades, has severed, Tina Fordham, Citi's chief global political analyst, said at a conference in London last November. Geopolitical risks have risen strongly, but market volatility is low and the economy is accelerating. Political leaders do not see the market response to make them worry, and therefore are not overly concerned about mitigating those risks, Fordham warned.
The MSCI World developed market index rose 20.1% last year, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index rose 34.3%. From the beginning of this year to the close of Monday, they added 5.6% and 6.9%, respectively. The US S&P 500 and Japan's Nikkei 225 gained more than 19% in 2017, and in this Nikkei reached a 26-year high. The Dow Jones Index covered 1,000 points this month - from 25,000 to 26,000 - in just eight trading days, a record in its history. The Russian stock exchange index, which lost 5.5% a year earlier, jumped 9.4% in January
Own lingering economic crisis is unlikely to save Russia from the consequences of the global
Are we really on the verge of a new global economic crisis, how hard will it hit Russia and how can we save ourselves?
The past October was the worst for the American stock market since the end of the last crisis. For a couple of weeks, the Dow Jones has deprived investors of annual earnings. On the last Friday of the month, the Nasdaq fell 2%, the Dow Jones - 1.2%, the S&P 500 - 1.7%, giving players, according to Western media estimates, a "bloodbath".
These events made people start talking about the approach of another global crisis. Maybe these are the first bells? Moreover, at the beginning of the year, George Soros had already warned about the approaching financial crisis, blaming US President Donald Trump and problems in the EU for it, and in the summer, IMF Head Christine Lagarde spoke about the growing problems in the global economy.
There is still a year left
Of course, there will be a crisis. The question is: when? The global economic crisis can be triggered by a cyclical downturn in the economy or markets, or by major geopolitical shocks. The national economy, financial and commodity markets go through cyclical phases of growth and recession, so after a long phase of growth it is logical to wait for the onset of a recession - this is natural, like a change of seasons.
“Since the second half of the 19th century, cyclical crises have been occurring at intervals of 7-12 years,” says Sergei Khestanov, macroeconomics advisor to the general director of Otkritie Broker. "Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine the exact time limits of the crisis."
However, economists are already familiar with the warning signs of its approach.
“Usually, serious crises occur either as a result of the formation of bubbles in financial markets, as was the case with subprime mortgages, or, as it was in the early 2000s, when there was a dot-com bubble, or, as it was in 1997, when there was an overheating of Asian markets. , - explains Kirill Tremasov, director of the analytical department of Loko-Invest. - Crises can also be provoked by some kind of external shocks. For example, a sharp, at times, rise in oil prices. "
Since the second half of the 19th century, cyclical crises have occurred at intervals of 7-12 years.
“According to our observations, the financial crisis begins either with a strongly inflated bubble (for example, mortgages), or with a frenzied growth of markets, followed by an unplanned collapse. We do not see either one or the other at the moment, "says the head of the department. trading strategies Dukascopy Bank SA Daniil Egorov.
There is one more sign. The one about which they say: "When America sneezes, the whole world gets sick." “If we are talking about the fact that the recession in the American economy can cause a recession all over the world, then in relation to the American economy everything looks quite positive,” says Tremasov. - There are no signals that the US economy is not just on the eve of the crisis, but even turned towards recession. The American economy in June next year will record the longest period economic growth and it is clear that the cyclical time is approaching. "
“History shows that global market failures do not occur against the backdrop of an increase in the Fed's rate, which is, in fact, a global regulator, but happen about a year or two after it reaches a local maximum and stops,” says the deputy chairman of the board of Loko-Bank Andrey Lyushin. "In the current realities, when the Fed intends to raise the rate at least four more times by the end of 2019, this means that the bear market may begin somewhere on the horizon of early-mid 2021."
“The earliest when a cyclical recession may occur in the US economy is the second half of 2020, 2021,” suggests Tremasov. “So far, both American and world economy do not show signs of a crisis, - says Sergey Khestanov. - Therefore, if it does happen, it is unlikely earlier than in a year or two. For about this period, most likely, there will be enough inertia. "
Let's say that a really new crisis does not begin next year, but, at the earliest, in 2020. But what exactly can provoke it?
Top five risks: which one is worse?
Bloomberg recently listed five key risks that economists surveyed said could trigger the crisis. This is a huge amount of world debt, which reached 182 trillion dollars (of particular concern is the growing debt of China and other developing countries); this is the rising price of oil, which has already added 15% in price since mid-August; this is a huge corporate debt that has arisen due to the soft monetary policy of the last ten years; it is a bubble in the Australian real estate market, which has not been affected by previous crises and whose economy has been growing for 27 consecutive years; This is the coming to power of Eurosceptics who have already created Brexit and are now pushing Italy to leave the EU.
Experts interviewed by Banki.ru assessed these risks differently. The least threat, one way or another, is Australia: its problems are unlikely to cause a recession in the entire global economy.
Trade wars, primarily between the United States and China, are another matter. It is this factor that causes the greatest concern today. “The United States has embarked on a very pragmatic protectionist policy, which should result in 'new industrialization,'” says Mikhail Khanov, managing director of Algo-Capital. - Taking into account the increased import duties, Chinese products are becoming less competitive in the attractive North American market. However, manufacturers of traditionally expensive European goods face much more problems. Financial markets are often ahead of real processes that are just emerging in the economy. Therefore, shares and bonds of European and Chinese companies are already beginning to lose their attractiveness. "
“The confrontation between the United States and China is a potential threat to both emerging markets and Europe,” says Daniil Yegorov. - This confrontation has already disrupted a number of supply chains that have been forming for decades, which ultimately may lead to a major redistribution of the market and production ties. And this creates all the prerequisites for a possible protracted financial crisis. " Trade wars are also dangerous in that they are difficult to predict and can go on increasing, adds Kirill Tremasov.
Another trigger could be the current cycle of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, which means an increase in the cost of borrowed money. “The most likely reason is US monetary policy, which will be slightly re-adjusted, and this will lead to a rather hard landing in those sectors, investment attractiveness which the market has overestimated, - suggests Dmitry Tarasov, project director of Frank RG. "These are all kinds of digital startups and unfinished new technologies."
The confrontation between the United States and China is a potential threat to both emerging markets and Europe.
The inflow of borrowed money to financial markets should decrease in the medium term, Mikhail Khanov believes. “Given the continued importance of funding in the US dollar, this factor can have a significant impact on financial markets on a global scale,” the expert says.
Serious concerns are also raised by "bad" debts, which are growing both for banks and states. It is the high debt burden in China and other developing countries that Sergey Khestanov considers the main risk. Mikhail Khanov draws attention to the problems of European banking system, which, in his opinion, are more serious than the problem of Chinese debts. "Bad" debts on the balance sheets of European banks call into question financial stability banking sectors of countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland, - explains Khanov. “It is necessary to understand that the potential collapse of the banking system in these countries can trigger a“ chain reaction ”up to the level of a regional financial crisis, which will cause a drop in the value of a wide range of investment instruments."
Shocks can also be the cause of the crisis. For example, a sharp increase energy prices. “Over the past year and a half, the cost of oil and energy resources in general has increased significantly,” continues Khanov. - This means an increase in production costs in developed countries... Combined with other economic problems, the rise in prices for hydrocarbons could worsen the state of their financial markets. This can be especially painful if there is a sharp rise in oil prices due to the aggravation of geopolitical risks in the oil-producing regions of the world. "
However, everything can happen at once. “Unfortunately, all these factors act simultaneously,” warns Nikolai Kascheyev, head of the analytics and strategic marketing department of Promsvyazbank. - This economic paradigm - growth based on endless expansion of credit - must either reboot through deleveraging, or be replaced by a new paradigm, which is not yet known enough. But also, apparently, through "creative destruction." Today we do not know, perhaps, many of the firms that will form the core of the Dow Jones in 20 years. "
What will the new crisis be like?
The new crisis will be less devastating than the previous one, JP Morgan analysts wrote in October. According to the model presented by them, the fall of the American stock exchange will be 20% (in the last crisis the S&P fell by 54%). Emerging markets, according to this forecast, will drop 48%, while currencies - 14.4%.
Markets will not sink so much, because they now have much less liquidity than it was on the eve of the 2008 crisis. True, the same lack of liquidity will not allow a quick rebound from the bottom. Smaller, but longer - this will be the coming crisis, according to JP Morgan.
“This point of view is based on relatively careful investments in actively developing industries and regular cooling of overheated markets,” says Daniil Egorov. - However, the bulk of the money and investment stock has long migrated to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, and the possibilities of the overpopulated countries of this region are very difficult to predict. Moreover, the global stock market has been behaving extremely unpredictably over the past two years. We agree that in the event of a global financial crisis, there will be no rebound like at the end of 2009. However, emerging markets will be hit harder than in 2008. ”
“Just because of the lower volume of liquidity, the crisis may become more acute - if there were not enough resources anyway, then a further decrease in reserves will lead to death,” Dmitry Tarasov is sure. "While the fat one dries, the thin one will die!" In his opinion, the acute phase will last for about two quarters, then recovery will begin.
It is too early to predict the exact depth and duration of the crisis, says Nikolai Kashcheev, “because, firstly, many factors are acting simultaneously, and secondly, we do not yet know what the response of the authorities to a new challenge for them will be, in the conditions of“ triumph populism ".
“The depth and duration of the crisis depend on how long the growth period will be, how strong the economic acceleration and overheating of financial markets will be in the last phase, that is, on the scale of the bubbles being formed,” says Kirill Tremasov. "Until they are there, it is difficult to predict the depth and reasons that will trigger the crisis." At least some reliable forecasts will appear no earlier than two or three quarters after the start of the crisis, says Sergey Khestanov.
Nikolai Kascheyev suggests that this will most likely be a protracted crisis, albeit more "minor" than in 2008. “The real deleveraging to go through (for some countries it is up to 100% of GDP) cannot be short,” he explains. "Otherwise, we will provoke a new crisis in a shorter time than ten years, but on exactly the same grounds."
This opinion is shared by Andrey Lyushin. "Problems, indeed, can be quite protracted, because to get out of the crisis, either an infusion of real money is needed, or a sharp growth of a new industry (read: a new technological order), or a sharp increase in demand for the products of the old industry (usually military supplies)", - explains the banker.
Russia: "They won't make us worse?"
There would be no happiness, but misfortune helped - this is how you can describe the impact of the future crisis on our country.
“The resilience of developing countries in times of global turmoil depends on the volume of foreign capital: as soon as the situation deteriorates, money runs home,” recalls Kirill Tremasov. - That is, the more countries depend on the volume of international capital, the less resilient they are to financial shocks. We are now pursuing an isolationist policy, our debt has significantly decreased, in the last quarter there was even a decrease in foreign direct investment. Please note: not a decrease in inflow, but a decrease in volume, which was previously not observed at all in recent history Russia. Foreign capital is steadily leaving Russia, so we are becoming less sensitive to global shocks. "
The Russian economy is increasingly isolated from the world economy, with the exception of the supply of raw materials, notes Dmitry Tarasov. " External debt is rapidly shrinking, and this is almost the only channel for the penetration of problems, says the economist. - The crisis will lead to lower prices for raw materials, and temporarily difficulties in servicing debt may arise. But the state will protect strategic assets by absorbing them. Well, there will be some kind of devaluation until raw material prices recover to a level of about 50%, that is, up to 80-90 rubles per dollar. With subsequent restoration up to 70-75 ".
Foreign capital is steadily leaving Russia, so we are becoming less sensitive to global shocks.
Daniil Yegorov is much less optimistic. “Russia has retained its dependence on prices for energy resources and foreign raw materials, so the devaluation of the ruble can lead to a variety of consequences, up to commodity deficit in the domestic market, - he is sure. - The Russian economy, despite the apparent stability associated with the lack of growth, is quite vulnerable to external shocks. Current policy can only postpone the negative consequences of the crisis. However, it is too rash to say that the consequences of the global crisis will somehow be avoided by Russia. "
The fall in raw material prices will cause a recession in Russia in 2015, predicts Nikolai Kashcheev. That is why, says the economist, the authorities are now busy accumulating reserves in order to fill the "safety cushion" more tightly. So that state finances will be provided with stability, but business and citizens will have an especially difficult time, Khestanov said.
However, defending the position that the coming crisis will not be as painful as the previous ones, Kirill Tremasov makes the following argument: we have met all previous crises after a very confident growth. Now the economy is not growing, business is not investing, income is stagnating - everything is already bad, so they won't make us much worse.
How will we be saved?
But if, as our experts believe, the crisis threatens us not earlier than in a year and a half, there is still time to make a wise (if possible) investment decision. What needs to be done to at least not lose the accumulated back-breaking work? Experts differ on the basis of how optimistic they are about the current state of the economy. For example, while the US economy continues to grow, it makes sense to buy shares in the US market, advises Tremasov.
Maximum savings in hard currency and a minimum of burdensome projects, recommends Sergey Khestanov. Dmitry Tarasov also advises to go into dollars. “In any case, I would increase the share of dollar assets, but do not forget about the credit risk,” says Tarasov. "That is, either in deposits at a high dollar rate in state banks, or in government bonds, and it is possible not in ours."
Partial protection can be, as always, physical gold, it is quite possible that silver - to the same or even slightly greater degree, believes Andrey Lyushin.
The main thing is to clearly understand where you are going to invest money.
“What you can't do is not use possible tools. financial market- says Daniil Egorov. - This is not the time to wait out turbulence and wait for stability: it most likely will not come. Taking on excess risks and flirting with long positions is also not worth it - in the current conditions, the market decline may be longer than any forecasts. There are good chances for foreign exchange market as emerging market currencies become more popular. However, one should not expect their growth relative to world currencies in the foreseeable future. In any case, the time of "quiet" money and good dividends in Russia has definitely passed, and it will not return soon. "
The 2018 financial crisis has officially arrived! That's why you came to this page, didn't you? To be scared, to worry, to mentally prepare for the worst-case scenario, so that later you can just be patient and move on. In the end, 2008 was not as scary as it is portrayed, and “ The great depression"Survived. What could be worse? Maybe, but not this time. The media love to scare people, but why? Because it is readable.
Or maybe we can make an objective assessment and tell the truth? What really is today. Will there be a default? How are things in Europe, America? What happens to the dollar exchange rate? What are the real risks and projections? Let's figure it out.
Why an economic crisis can happen
First of all, you need to understand the following: a crisis can occur only when there are more interested in it than uninterested. And it is not even the quantity that affects, but the financial power of this person. Not stupid people are responsible for the country's economy, and they know exactly how to govern the country so that the world financial crisis does not happen because of them.
Has a new crisis begun? Not yet. But anything is possible. There are some historical facts. In the past, after them, there was a crisis. It is quite possible that this time we will face a similar scenario of the development of events. Latest news say the following:
Market volatility is decreasing. We can say that there are no fears and worries left in the stock market, and this is a rather painful condition. The fact is that it is no longer so profitable for traders, especially large players, to trade. They'll just refuel this lottery machine and shake it up, running the process in a loop. If we proceed from graphical analysis, after a long consolidation, a powerful breakout follows, and here it can only be upward.
In Russia, after the elections, the situation stabilized and the ruble slowly but surely went up. Against the backdrop of these events, we can say that the global crisis in 2018 is an unfunny media joke.
Oil has been growing steadily lately. Until 07.2018, the situation was quite normal, despite the fact that back in 2017 it was predicted to collapse by that time. After July, there will be a prolonged, albeit not very intense, decline in quotations. After August, a new uptrend is likely to start. In any case, the quotes of black gold are likely to drag the ruble along with them.
Fresh news reports on the recent bombing in Beijing near the American embassy. According to rumors, it was arranged by the United States. It is hardly worth listening to them, anyone could have done it. And no one will be surprised if this incident is associated with the activities of Russia. One way or another, the trade war between the United States and China will not lead to anything good for these countries, and it will have a bad effect on the economies of other countries.
Global changes may affect the United States. Yes, the Americans have not been doing well for a long time. During several years state debt continues to increase, and its growth is many times ahead of GDP growth. Even default is possible here. Trump mentioned that refinancing is possible to reduce pressure on the country's economy. A default may happen as early as 2019, but today there are mechanisms that can prevent it.
It turns out that nothing out of the ordinary is happening in the international economy. D . Soros predicted that the crisis is expected in 2017. And where is he? On the other hand, what started in 2008 is not over yet. He is still remembered with a sick smile.
The 2018 financial crisis and how to prepare for it
Let's assume that the global financial crisis of 2018 has already arrived. Ruble quotes went down, the Central Bank is unable to keep the situation under control. Each expert predicts a complete collapse of the entire world economy. What to do in such a situation?
The first question that people have is what to store their savings. Contributions are good. But if the crisis is truly global, then all currencies will rush down. Your finances will be eaten up one way or another. The crisis that has begun is needed for the rich to continue to get rich, and the poor to get poorer. Real resources will not go anywhere, they will be depreciated banknotes... Investing in any of the currencies is useless.
- Antique items. They will always be valuable. After the crisis, they will gain their value again, and you can sell them profitably, saving your money. But remember that there are many fakes in this market, you need to be well versed.
- Cryptocurrency. A thing that is generally outside of the economy for the most part. But it will be influenced by strong players. It is likely that it will rapidly gain course during the crisis. But it may also fall if more attractive investment opportunities appear for strong players. And here, too, you need to be well versed, otherwise the market will chew and spit you out, leaving you without money.
- Buying assets that have fallen in price. During the crisis, business and real estate are rapidly depreciating. This is a reason to spend the accumulated funds on their purchase. Over time, they will recover in value, and with proper management they will also bring profit.
The best investment remains one - in yourself. And here it is not important whether the financial crisis of 2018 may begin or not. Regardless of what the ruble will be, you still win. Invest in yourself, in training in the field that you do or that you like. After receiving new information, you can use it to your advantage.
Profitable business during the crisis
A crisis is just the time to seize opportunities. Think of those who managed to get rich in the 90s. They caught this wave of change and made a fortune out of it. And this despite the fact that people did not have money, purchasing power tended to zero, and the whole family spent money on Snickers only from their salaries. Today it is even difficult to imagine such a situation.
During a crisis, people panic. There is a large area of businesses that operate on human fears. These include burglar alarms, private security companies, insurance, the production of car security systems and much more. These are very profitable businesses. People do not want to be afraid, they need confidence in the future. And during a crisis, this need becomes even more acute.
In addition to these areas, there are others that are more accessible. Although it must be admitted that they also require a certain courage from a person.
Internet
Now it is a real treasure of money, people make money on information. There are plenty of opportunities here. Entrepreneurs are willing to pay serious money to advertise on a popular channel, community, or blog.
Pay attention to social media first. Yes, today this niche is already quite full, but original ideas there will always be a place. The most interesting thing is to start an honest blog on your own behalf about the outbreak of the crisis. It is banal, simple and will attract people. This is just one of thousands of undiscovered ideas.
YouTube channels bring really good income. For just 1000 views, advertisers will be willing to pay you from $ 1.50. And if there are hundreds of thousands of them? Think about this direction. The same goes for personal blogs, communities, hobby clubs on various social networks. Build a subscriber base and sell ads.
Freelance deserves special attention. Remote work is still not as popular as the industry demands. You can make good money here, especially if you become a master in your field. Naturally, nothing will work right away. A good freelancer should have an impressive portfolio, a well-formed resume, advertising of his services, for several months he will definitely have to work only in his own name. Such people really earn a lot, and they are not afraid of financial crises.
Whichever path you choose, invest in yourself. Don't rely on gold, cryptocurrency, and other investment opportunities. The most valuable thing today is the information that you can get and on which you can earn. It makes sense to invest as much as possible in it. It does not matter at all whether the financial crisis comes or not. With information in your head, you will always earn more than without it.
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Analysts at Bank of America studied global financial trends and concluded that their dynamics resemble the pre-crisis period of 1997-1998.
"The disengagement of the United States, the flattening of the yield curve, the fall of emerging markets are all preconditions for the global financial crisis 20 years ago," said Michael Hartnett, strategist leader at Bank of America.
The 1998 crisis - how was it?
What is commonly called the 1998 crisis in Russia is called the Asian financial crisis in the world. It erupted in 1997 in Southeast Asia and became the most serious problem in the global economy in the late 1990s.
The conditions of the 1997-1998 financial crisis included: a) the explosive growth of the Asian Tiger economies, accompanied by capital inflows, growing public and corporate debt and a boom in the real estate market, and b) a strong dollar, which appreciated by 25% in three years.
By the end of the 90s, the rapidly developing Asian markets were mired in debt and credit. At the same time, the United States came out of another round of recession, which, of course, was accompanied by a serious strengthening of the dollar on the international market. At the same time, prices for electronics, one of the main export items of Asian countries, began to fall. Thus, at the beginning of 1997, the following situation developed: during the period of explosive growth, the “Asian Tigers” took in dollar-denominated loans, but due to the rapid strengthening of the latter, they were unable to repay them. At the same time, the main source of the inflow of dollars into the treasury - income from the sale of electronics - begins to dry up. Throw in high levels of corruption and the output is ideal conditions for a financial crisis.
Thailand was the first to go downhill, devaluing its baht, which was pegged to the dollar. Immediately after that, the Thai stock market sank 75% (!). after it went to Malaysia, then Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Laos, China, India, the Philippines and Vietnam. Singapore and Taiwan were the least affected.
A year later, the financial crisis hit Russia, whose economic stability did not even come close to the level of the "Asian tigers". The last echo of the Asian financial crisis came in 2001 in Argentina, forced to declare a technical default.
World financial crisis 2018 - to be or not to be?
Bank of America experts warn - the situation on the world market, trends and tendencies, US policy and so on and so on - all this painfully resembles the notorious 1998 crisis.
We are dealing with the explosive growth of the economies of China and India, mired in debt and credit, accompanied by Donald Trump's anti-globalization policies, deliberately dissociating the United States from the rest of the world.
Not only Bank of America, but also The World Bank... They remind that the global financial crisis of 2008 is behind us, but recessions tend to come back every ten years, and the next one can hit us at any moment.
Why is the global financial crisis a good thing?
Because the financial crisis is the result of hammering a bolt on the problems of the world economy, and the only way out is to solve these problems. I have already written, and I will write more than once, that economics and populism are incompatible. And the world economy is also incompatible with nationalism.
Re-read the history of the 1998 crisis, remember the 2008 crisis - they began in a single country, but after a few months this skating rink was ironing everyone, no matter what it got. This is a lesson that economics has taught us twice in the last 20 years, but we never learned it. In the XXI century, the concepts of “ National economy"And" national policy "are extremely conditional. The economy of almost any country is tied to the well-being of its neighbors, economic and political allies and partners. And we are not talking about dependence on the euro and the dollar.
Therefore, the conditional Italy needs to solve the problems of the conditional Greece, and the conditional States will have to take into account the needs of China. Because if Greece begins to crumble, then there is no guarantee that it will not bury Italy under its rubble.
But we never learned this lesson. We know that if rapists live in the house on the right, and murderers live in the house on the left, then there can be no question of any security in our own house. We know that if a nearby garage is on fire, there is a high probability that our own garage will also burn. But when it comes to the economy, everyone's memory is knocked off, and they rush to vote for some conditional Marie Le Pen, who foaming at the mouth proves that the problems of Greece are the problems of Greece, and she does not understand why they should worry France. ...
Let me remind you once again - the last echo of the world financial crisis of 1998 was the technical default in Argentina in 2001! It was the Asian crisis that started in Thailand and hit Argentina three years later! And people still do not understand why they should be concerned about the economic well-being of some kind of [substitute any country].
Well nothing. The economy is a lady with character. It will be necessary to repeat - she will repeat. One, two, five. And so, until it comes.