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Belarusian State University
Faculty of International Relations
Control and independent work
Demographic development of the world
1st year students of 14 groups
branch "Customs"
Kurlovich Anna Alexandrovna
supervisor
associate professor, candidate
economic sciences
Malashenkova O.F.
Minsk, 2012
Introduction
3. Demographic policy
Conclusion
Introduction
Every year the interest of the economic community in the demographic development of the world is increasing. Reproduction of the population, its sex and age structure, quality and duration of life, the level of qualifications of the labor force, migration and its socio-economic consequences attract the attention of specialists, politicians and society. The reason for the increased interest is the uneven demographic development of the world. After all, the viability, as well as the development of the state, directly depends on the sustainability of demographic development.
Social, economic as well as cultural factors have a major impact on population growth. Although at present these factors are rather negative than positive. The most striking example is European countries that are experiencing difficulties in reproducing their population. There is a trend towards an increase in mortality and a decrease in fertility. Therefore, under the influence of these factors, it is depopulation that is the modern picture of the development of the world's demography.
The purpose of this work is to study the demographic development of the world.
1. Demographic development of the world
Reproduction of the population is the process of generational change as a result of the natural movement of the population. The size and reproduction of the population is characterized by many demographic indicators, but the main ones are the birth rate, mortality rate and natural increase. These values are expressed in ppm (‰).
Every year the population is growing rapidly. Between 1960 and 2011, the number more than doubled (from 3 to 7 billion people). It is not difficult to notice that throughout the entire historical period, the intervals between increases in the population by half are rapidly decreasing. The first doubling of the population took place in 1500 years (the beginning of our era - 1500), the next in 300 (1500-1800), the third in 120 years (1800-1920), and the fourth in 50 years (1920 -1970).
It is these skyrocketing increases in population that prove that the process cannot go smoothly. It depends on the duration of the existence of populations (logical, biological, ecological). This indicator cannot be the same everywhere - in some countries and regions it is accelerating, in others it remains unchanged or declining. So, for example, because of the plague from 1348 to 1377. the European population has decreased by more than 40%, and it took more than a hundred years to recover
Demographic development consists of long periods of evolution and short qualitative shifts or periods of demographic transition (change in the types of population reproduction) and demographic revolutions.
A demographic revolution (population explosion) is a rapid rate of natural population growth that exceeds the growth rate of previous decades. According to some estimates, the rapid population growth rate includes an increase of more than 2% per year, in which the population doubles every 35 years. At a moderate rate, the population doubles every 50 years, and at a slow rate, every 200 years.
A population explosion is a type of population reproduction in which the world's population increases dramatically. A characteristic feature of this explosion is the rapid change of generations, which barely live to be 40 years old. The term "population explosion" first appeared in the middle of the 20th century, when mankind found effective means of combating mass diseases
In developing countries, the decline in mortality was accelerated. In the period after the war, the mortality rate decreased 2.6 times, from 1950 to 1955 by 23.3, and in the period from 1990 to 1995 by 9.1 times. Population growth in the countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America was explosive. It was the most powerful population explosion, it became global, since the rate of increase in the world's population is due to the rate of its increase in countries with developing economies. So, for example, in the period from 1950 to 1970. on average, the annual population growth increased from 1.8 to 2%, and in 1990 to 1995. it dropped to 1.6% (Table 1).
demographic economic population gross
Table 1. Population growth rates
|
Population growth rate,% |
|||||
|
The developed countries |
|||||
|
Developing countries |
|||||
|
North America |
|||||
|
Latin America |
|||||
2. Dependence of economic growth on population growth
In various subsystems of the world economy, it is noticeable that population growth is not the same. Based on this, many scientists and researchers talk about the dependence of optimal economic growth on the smoothness of population growth. And economists analyze the relationship between economic development and population growth.
There are several approaches to analyzing the relationship between economic development and population growth. The main approach is that demographic variables are the most important element of socio-economic development. The basis of this approach is the following scheme: rapid population growth is the reason for a decrease in the growth of savings and savings, it also increases population growth and creates difficulties in its use, due to the rapid population growth, the quality of labor resources decreases (due to a decrease in spending on education and health care) and there is a slowdown in technological development, the volume of resources per person is reduced and, as a result, there is a slowdown in the growth of GDP per capita.
Population growth and GDP per capita are compared in order to find out the level of influence of population growth on economic development. Over the past decades, with a number of exceptions, the level of economic development is directly proportional to the rate with low population reproduction and high life expectancy.
According to Table 2, the growth rate of GDP per capita in 1980-90 increased with a decrease in population growth in the 1990s. This trend can be seen in developing countries, and most clearly in even less developed countries. But at the same time, the decline in population growth rates in industrialized countries from 0.6 to 0.5 was not accompanied by an increase in GDP per capita. The situation is the same in low-income countries. In other countries, population growth could go hand in hand with an increase in per capita income. In a number of countries with a low level of development, the problem of maintaining minimum requirements is the main one. In the 1980s, the poorest developing countries experienced negative population growth rates. That is why, for a number of countries, population growth became the reason for the deterioration of socio-economic development.
Table 2. Population and GDP Growth Rates (PPP)
|
Population, % |
GDP per capita, % |
||||||
|
Developing countries |
|||||||
|
Underdeveloped countries |
|||||||
|
Mid-developed countries |
3. Demographic policy
Demographic policy is the purposeful activity of state bodies and other social institutions in the field of regulating population reproduction, designed to maintain or change the trends in the dynamics of its size and structure.
A demographic policy arose due to difficulties in the socio-economic development of the countries of the world. This was also facilitated by the position of Western countries, which believe that control over population growth is the most important condition for socio-economic development. In a communiqué from the heads of state and government of the leading Western countries in Houston in 1990, it was noted that the sustainable development of countries requires that population growth be in balance with economic resources. Maintaining this balance is a priority for countries that support economic development.
There are two goals in demographic policy: increasing the birth rate and natural increase and reducing the birth rate and natural population growth. The first is typical for developing countries, where there is a population explosion, the other for economically developed countries.
To achieve the goals of demographic policy, certain methods are being taken. They can be divided into economic, administrative and legal, educational (propaganda). Among the economic measures that are aimed at stimulating the birth rate include paid leave and various benefits for the birth of children, benefits for children depending on their number, age and family composition, various loans, loans, housing and tax benefits, etc. ...
Administrative and legal measures include legislative acts regulating the age of marriage and the conditions for divorce, attitudes towards the use of contraceptives and abortion, the property and social status of mothers and children in the event of family breakdown, the working regime of working women, etc.
Educational (propaganda) measures are aimed at shaping public opinion, norms and standards of demographic behavior, determining attitudes towards religious and other traditions and customs of population reproduction and family planning policy (intrafamily regulation of childbearing), sex education and education of young people, etc.
The most widespread demographic policy was in the second half of the XX century. On the one hand, due to the demographic explosion, and on the other, the demographic crisis. Many politicians and scientists saw a way out precisely in this policy. Demographic policy has become almost the main means of curbing population growth in the first case and accelerating in the second case.
The United Nations paid a lot of attention to these issues. Under its auspices, world conferences on population were held: in 1954 (Rome), in 1965 (Belgrade), in 1974 (Bucharest), in 1984 (Mexico City), in 1994 (Cairo). In 1967, the United Nations Fund for the Promotion of Population Activities (UNFPA) was established. Since the 1960s. The UN conducts systematic surveys of governments on population policy issues. They are also discussed at sessions of the UN General Assembly. In 1992 they entered the agenda of the World Conference on Environment and Development. Of the individual documents, the "World Population Action Plan" adopted in Bucharest in 1974, which contains many specific recommendations for the implementation of population policy, is of particular importance. Then, at conferences in Mexico City and especially in Cairo, it was further developed with the inclusion of a number of fundamental changes.
Conclusion
Population growth is accelerating. It has never been smooth. Somewhere it accelerated, but somewhere on the contrary remained unchanged or rapidly decreased. I would like to note that the highest growth rates are taking place, to this day, in the countries of Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
It is the developing countries that provide the bulk of the world's population growth. More than half of the population growth comes from these countries: India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, China, etc. In industrialized countries, the situation is the opposite: the population is declining, zero or negative natural increase. All this creates the threat of a demographic crisis, and possibly depopulation in these areas.
When assessing the demographic situation in the world, it becomes clear that the impact on the economic situation has not only the total size and growth of the population, but also its age structure - division into groups according to work ability.
It is the measures of demographic policy that can resolve the population problems in the world.
List of sources used
1. Batmanova E.S., Tomilov P.S. World economy and international economic relations. - Yekaterinburg, 2005. - 111 p.
2. Lomakin V.K. World economy: Textbook for universities. - M., 2007 - 735 p.
3. Maksakovsky V.P. Geographic picture of the world. Book II.
4. Population Change and Economic Development. Oxford, 1985, p. 42. World Economic and Social Survey 1999. UN, p. 307.
5. The Free Encyclopedia Wikipedia. - Access mode: http://ru.wikipedia.org. - Date of access: 09.04.2012.
6. CIA - The World Fact Book / - Access mode: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/historical-collection-publications/index.html. - Date of access: 13.04.2011
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The overall population growth is increasing. For 1950-2000 it increased 2.4 times - from 2.5 to 6.1 billion people. Over a long historical period, the time intervals for the doubling of the population have been decreasing. The first doubling occurred in 1500 years (the beginning of our era - 1500), the second - in 300 years (1500-1800), the third - in 120 years (1800-1920), the fourth - in 50 years (1920- 1970), the fourth - for 48 years (1970-2018)
The population size depends on the basic conditions for the long-term existence of populations (biological, ethological, ecological). The world's population growth has not been smooth. In some countries and regions, it accelerated, in others it remained unchanged or decreased, which was determined by a number of the above reasons. So, the plague in 1348-1377. in Europe led to a population decline of at least 40%, and the demographic recovery took over a hundred years.
The main aspects of demographic development. Demographic development consists of long periods of evolution and relatively short qualitative shifts or periods of demographic transition and demographic revolutions. Under demographic transition the change in the types of population reproduction is understood. It coincides with the transformation of the pre-industrial system of productive forces into an industrial one. The demographic revolution is an integral part of the demographic transition.
Term demographic revolution, or a population explosion, means an unprecedentedly high rate of natural population growth, which exceeds the growth rate of previous decades. According to some estimates, rapid growth rates include an annual growth rate of 2% or more, in which the population doubles every 35 years, moderate - every 50 years, slow - about every 200 years.
The demographic explosion is a consequence and manifestation of the process of modernization of the traditional type of population reproduction, during which the demographic equilibrium is maintained due to the extremely high birth and death rates. A characteristic feature of this order is the rapid change of generations, barely living up to 40 years. The transformation of the traditional type of natural reproduction began with a decrease in mortality. By the middle of the XX century. mankind began to possess effective and relatively cheap means of combating mass diseases, which led to a sharp decrease in mortality.
The reduction in mortality was accelerated in developing countries. For the second half of the XX century. the death rate there decreased by 2.8 times: from 24.2 in 1950-1955. up to 8.6 people per thousand inhabitants in 1995-2000 Population growth in the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America has become explosive. The power of the ongoing population explosion exceeds that known before. Due to the fact that the current extremely high growth rates of the world's population are decisively determined by the rate of its increase in developing countries, the demographic explosion of these countries has turned into a global one. 1950-1970 population growth increased from 2.0 to 2.5% on average per year, then in 1995-2000. it dropped to 1.6% (Table 13.1).
Table 13.1
Population growth rate,%
| Subsystems and regions | 1950-1955 | 1965-1970 | 1990-1995 | 1995-2000 |
| Peace | 1,77 | 2,04 | 1,46 | 1,33 |
| The developed countries* | 1,21 | 1,10 | 0,60 | 0,41 |
| Developing countries | 2,04 | 2,53 | 1,75 | 1,59 |
| Africa | 2,15 | 2,59 | 2,51 | 2,37 |
| Asia | 1,91 | 2,44 | 1,55 | 1,38 |
| Europe | 1,00 | 0,66 | 0,16 | 0,03 |
| Latin America | 2,66 | 2,58 | 1,72 | 1,57 |
| North America | 1,70 | 1,06 | 1,02 | 0,85 |
* Including Eastern Europe.
Population growth in developing countries in the second half of the 1990s was four times higher than in industrialized countries (1.6 and 0.4). The highest population growth rates are observed in the countries of the Middle East and Africa (2.2% in 1950-1955 and 2.4% in 1995-2000). In the countries of Tropical Africa, the preservation of demographic stereotypes is facilitated by objective factors associated with high infant mortality, the spread of infertility, and persisting polygamy. High rates of population growth persist in the countries of South America.
The demographic explosion is not a new phenomenon in demographic history. In Western countries, the highest population growth rates were in 1760-1820, when the population of the United States increased almost 6 times, Britain - 1.8, France - 1.2, Germany - 1.4, Italy - 1, 1 time. No less impressive changes in the population of this group of countries took place in 1820-1860 volumes, when the population of the United States increased more than three times, Britain - 1.4 times, Germany - almost 1.5 times. The birth rate in the now industrialized countries was 3.78% in 1820, in 1901 it dropped to 3.01%.
The demographic transition in the industrialized countries of the West was completed in the 50s. The improved living conditions have led to an increase in life expectancy, a decrease in fertility and an increase in the proportion of older people. According to the middle version, it is expected that starting from 2010-2015. in this subsystem of the world economy, the gross birth rate will be inferior to the mortality rate.
In the demographic transition, or the change in the types of population reproduction, four phases can be distinguished, which are determined by the movement of the birth and death rates. Thus, the fourth phase of the current demographic transition in the world provides for the convergence of the birth and death rates due to the growth of the latter. In this regard, it is expected that the growth of the world population will stop and stabilize by the end of this century.
The rationality of the phases of population reproduction is largely determined by the socio-economic organization of society. The restructuring of the type of reproduction depends not only on a decrease in mortality, but also on socio-economic transformations. The type of fertility is largely determined by the type of family and the nature of economic relations in it. In a backward agrarian economy, large families predominate, where relatives are united by common economic activities and responsibilities, where the flows of benefits are directed from younger ages to older ones. These relations determine the economic feasibility of maximizing the birth rate.
In an industrial society, the family is deprived of its economic function, the flow of benefits in it changes direction, which predetermines the economic expediency of childlessness. Therefore, in many developing countries, improvements in health and well-being, which can lead to large increases in life expectancy and decreases in child mortality, will play a more important role in lowering population growth and overall growth than in Western countries, where population replacement rates have dropped to how modern means of preventing and terminating pregnancy became widespread.
Although the rate of population growth is declining, the absolute increase in the number of people on the planet increased until the beginning of the 90s (1950-1955 - 47 million, 1985-1990 - 86 million, 1995-2000 - 77.7 million people in year). The end of the last century saw the most significant population growth. For 12 years (1987-1999) it increased by 1 billion and approached 6 billion people.
Accommodation of the population. The main population growth is provided by developing countries. In the first half of the 50s, they provided 79%, and in the second half of the 90s - 97% of the global population growth. More than half (60%) of population growth comes from 10 countries. India alone accounts for 20% of world population growth. These processes led to the redistribution of the population between various subsystems of the world economy. If in 1950 about 2/3 of the population lived in developing countries, in 2000 - 80%, then in 2025 their share is expected to further increase to 84% (Table 13.2).
Table 13.2
Distribution of the world's population by subsystem
and regions (million people and%)
| Regions and countries | |||||
| World, million people | 2521,2 | 3696,1 | 5266,4 | 7823,7 | |
| v % | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 | 100,0 |
| The developed countries | 32,2 | 27,3 | 21,8 | 19,6 | 15,5 |
| Developing countries | 67,8 | 72,7 | 78,2 | 80,4 | 84,5 |
| Africa | 8,8 | 9,6 | 11,7 | 13,0 | 16,6 |
| Asia | 55,6 | 58,1 | 60,4 | 60,8 | 60,4 |
| PRC | 22,1 | 22,6 | 22,0 | 21,2 | 19,0 |
| India* | 14,2 | 15,0 | 16,0 | 16,7 | 17,0 |
| Latin America | 6,6 | 7,7 | 8,4 | 8,6 | 8,9 |
| North America | 6,8 | 5,2 | 5,3 | 5,1 | 4,6 |
| Europe | 21,7 | 17,7 | 14,6 | 12,0 | 9,0 |
| RF | 4,1 | 3,5 | 2,8 | 2,4 | 1,7 |
* Forecast.
S ource: World population prospects. The 1998 revision. V. 1. Comprehensive tables. UN. 1999.
The increase in the share of developing countries was mainly due to Africa and India. The share of the industrially developed countries of the West fell from 32 to 19.6%. Such shifts have intensified differentiation in the distribution of population and productive forces. Developing countries account for 80% of the population and only about 20% of the GDP (37% in terms of the purchasing power of currencies). This subsystem of the world economy contains the largest countries in terms of population (over 100 million people). These include China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria. The share of industrialized countries in the world population is declining. Natural growth is very low. In North America, Western Europe and Japan, it is carried out on a narrowed basis (gross reproduction rate less than 2.0%). A similar picture can be observed in Eastern European countries. This creates a threat of depopulation or demographic crisis in these areas. In the Russian Federation, the demographic situation in the 90s was characterized as a crisis. A change in population, a decrease in the share of a particular country, a subsystem in the global population changes the potential of countries in the world economy.
7.1. World population dynamics
The world's population is currently over 6.4 billion people, a noticeable acceleration in its growth has occurred in the last 200 years (Fig. 7.1). If in the X-XVIII centuries. the average annual growth was 0.02%, then in the XIX-XX centuries. - already 0.98% (Table 7.1). Annual population growth peaked (87 million people) between 1985 and 1990; currently, the average annual growth rate is 77 million.
The world's population is characterized by complex structural changes, reproduction and migration processes. These problems are being studied demography, population science. The main indicators of the demographic situation include the population size and the rate of its change, geography of settlement, age structure and migration. Population size largely controls the demand for natural resources and the flow of material values; its growth exacerbates the problem of improving the quality of life and providing the necessary range of social benefits, including housing, transport, utilities, health care, education, jobs and security. Overcrowding in many countries of the world also complicates the solution to the problems of poverty.
According to some forecasts, by 2050 the world's population may range from 7.7 to 11.2 billion people. However, it is most likely to increase to 9.7 billion people. This forecast takes into account the following factors that determine the natural reproduction of the population:
fertility;
life expectancy;
type of population reproduction.
Population, million people
Rice. 7.1. Population growth from the beginning of the new era to 2002
Source: Maddison A.The World Economy. A Millennial Perspective... R. 241.
The decline in fertility is expected to continue. Fertility is the ability to produce offspring. This indicator is characterized by the number of births per woman on average during her life. Its current global average is 2.8; while in developed countries - 1.6, and in developing countries - 3.1. By 2050, the average number of births per woman is expected to drop to 2.1, close to substitute level ferTilnosTand, which means that a married couple has enough children to replace their parents. This means a transition to simple reproduction of the population and stabilization of its size.
Fertility is declining in countries that have made progress in reducing child mortality and increasing educational attainment, and where family planning programs are introduced. Family planning is a health care service that helps couples make decisions about when and how many children.
Economic growth, improved reproductive rights, shifts in the ratio of urban and rural populations, new family structures and employment patterns, primarily female employment, contribute to the decline in fertility, therefore, the decline in fertility is especially noticeable in such fast-growing countries as Bangladesh, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Singapore. in Asia; and Colombia in Latin America. For example, in Thailand, a country with a high rate of economic growth, there was a very strong decline in this indicator: from 6.59 in 1955-1960. up to 1 94 in 1990-1995 In 1960, the government introduced a family planning system and made contraception available. As a result, the rate of population growth decreased from 3.1% to 0.9%. Currently, similar programs are being implemented in the poorest countries. For example, in Tanzania, fertility declined from 6.8 in the 1960s and 1970s. up to 6 in 1990-1995 An important role in the implementation of these programs is played by the support of donor countries and family planning institutions, as well as the development of the economy and education.
Another important factor affecting population dynamics is life expectancy, which is the average number of years that a person can live in the conditions under which he was born. The duration of a person's existence is determined by both biological and social factors. This indicator takes into account the state of the environment, human health, the quality of health care and medical services, and housing conditions. Infant mortality plays an important role in life expectancy. Infant mortality is a statistical indicator characterizing the number of children who died under the age of one year, per 100 or per 1,000 live births per year. Humanity has managed to achieve significant success in increasing life expectancy and reducing child mortality (Table 7.2). If in Egypt at the beginning of our era life expectancy was only 24 years, and in various countries of the world in the XIX century. - 30-40 years old, now it is 66 years old.
In terms of life expectancy, as in other demographics, there are differences between developed and developing countries. In developing countries it is 65.3 years, while in developed countries it is 74.6 years. Over the past 40 years, many developing countries have managed to close the gap in life expectancy compared to industrialized countries, but in the poorest countries the gap with developed countries is about 50 years. For example, life expectancy in Botswana is only 36 years, in Mozambique - 38 years. It is projected that by 2050 it will be 81 years in developed countries, 76 years in developing countries and 72 years in least developed countries. Improvements in the fight against infectious diseases can help increase life expectancy.
Table 7.2
Life expectancy and infant mortality
|
Country |
Expected pro |
Children |
|
tenure |
mortality |
|
|
life, years | ||
|
Egypt, 33-258 | ||
|
England, 1301-1425 | ||
|
1541-1556 | ||
|
1626-1626 | ||
|
1726-1751 | ||
|
1801-1826 | ||
|
France, 1740-1749 | ||
|
1820-1829 | ||
|
Sweden, 1751-1755 | ||
|
Japan, 1776-1875 | ||
|
1800-1850 | ||
|
1751-1869 |
Source: Maddison A. The World Economy. A Millennial Perspective. P. 29.
The average annual population growth rate is the main indicator characterizing the dynamics of the population. It is calculated as the ratio of the annual population growth to the population at the beginning of the year:
Average annual = n population growth per year growth rate X 100%.
growth rate Population
for the beginning of the year
This indicator can have both positive values, characterizing the growth of the population, and negative in the case of a decrease in the population, acting as a kind of signal of depopulation.
In 1980-2002. in the world economy, the average annual population growth rate was positive and amounted to 1.5%, in 2002-2015. it is expected to decline to 1.0%. The highest rates of population growth are characteristic of developing countries. In 1980-2002. for sub-Saharan Africa, the average annual growth was 2.7%, for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa - 26%, and the lowest positive values were characteristic of the European Union (0.3%).
This indicator has negative values in a number of countries making the transition from a planned economic system to a market economy: Bulgaria (-0.5%), Croatia (-0.1%), Estonia (-0.4%), Hungary (-0 , 2%), Latvia (-0.4%), Ukraine (-0.1%). It is expected that in 2002-2015. this trend will intensify and the average annual negative growth will be -0.1% in Armenia, -0.5% - in Belarus, -0.7% - in Bulgaria, -0.3% - in Croatia, -0.2% - in Czech Republic, -0.6% - in Estonia, -0.8% - in Georgia, -0.4% - in Hungary, -0.7% - in Latvia, -0.4% - in Lithuania, -0 , 3% - in Romania, -0.5% - in Russia, -0.2% - in Slovenia, -0.7% - in Ukraine. In the same period, negative average annual growth rates are also possible in a number of developed countries: Austria (-0.1%), Germany (-0 2%), Italy (-0.3%), Japan (-0.2%) ...
7.2. Natural reproduction of the world's population
The factor that determines the rate of population growth in a country, along with fertility and life expectancy, is the type of its reproduction. Reproduction of the population in the narrow sense of the word is a change of generations as a result of natural movement (birth and death), in a broader sense it is a constant renewal of the population based on natural movement and migration.
Natural reproduction of the population is determined by the ratio of fertility and mortality, as well as its age structure. Fertility is the frequency of births, that is, the number of newborns per 1,000 people per year. Mortality is a demographic indicator that characterizes the number of deaths per 1,000 people per year.
To study the dynamics of the population, relative indicators are used: the birth rate, the mortality rate, as well as the average annual rate of natural population growth.
A positive value of the average annual rate of natural increase means that the population is growing due to the fact that the birth rate exceeds the death rate. In 2002, the birth rate was 21, and the death rate - 9 per 1,000 people. A negative value of the average annual rate of natural population growth means “natural decline” as a result of the excess of mortality over births. In 2002, “natural decline” was typical for a number of developed countries (Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy), as well as for countries with economies in transition (Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania , Moldova, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Ukraine).
Demographic processes form a certain age structure of the population. From an economic point of view, the most important is the age structure, which characterizes the distribution of the population by age categories, reflecting the able-bodied and disabled population. The able-bodied population includes the population aged 15 to 65 years, capable of actively participating in economic activities. In the world, on average, the share of the able-bodied economically active population is about 64%, but it is distributed unevenly (Table 7.3). The youngest population is found in low-income countries, while in high-income countries there is an aging population, the proportion of older people is about 14%.
Table 7.3
|
Countries and Regions |
Share of population,% |
Demographic load factor |
||||
|
oldNSe 65 |
young |
elderly |
||||
|
All countries of the world | ||||||
|
Low Countries | ||||||
|
income | ||||||
|
Countries with an average | ||||||
|
it income | ||||||
|
Low and medium | ||||||
|
his income | ||||||
|
East Asia and Pacific | ||||||
|
ocean region | ||||||
|
Europe and Central Asia | ||||||
|
Russia | ||||||
|
Latin America | ||||||
|
and the Caribbean | ||||||
|
Middle East | ||||||
|
and North Africa | ||||||
|
South asia | ||||||
|
Sub-saharan africa | ||||||
|
Countries with a high level | ||||||
|
income | ||||||
|
European Union | ||||||
|
(euro area) | ||||||
A source: World Development Indicators 2004. World Bank. P. 38-41.
The most important structural indicator is dependency ratio, calculated as the ratio of the total number of dependents (population of disabled age under 15 and over 65) to the population of working age. On average, the dependency ratio in 2002 was 0.6 globally, 0.7 in low-income countries, 0.5 in middle- and high-income countries, including 0.4 in Russia ( Table 7.3). In low-income countries, the population under 15 years old is more than 1/3, while in high-income countries it is about 1/5. This means that a large proportion of the population in low-income countries is too young to work and depends on the working-age population. However, the transition to low rates of population growth may lead to the emergence of a new problem that is currently characteristic of developed countries, namely the aging of the population, i.e., an increase in the proportion of elderly people of disabled age. The aging of the population in Europe is due to the fact that the post-war boom in the birth rate in the late 1960s. gave way to a sharp decline in fertility. The aging of the population leads to an increase in the demographic burden on the economically active population, as well as on the pension system, health care and the social security system.
In most developed countries, mortality and fertility rates have been declining over a long period of time, these countries have experienced a demographic shift that has led to a stabilization of the population. Demographic shift(transition period) is a cycle of population growth in a country associated with its economic development, characterized by a decrease in the growth rate of the country's population in the course of its economic development. In primitive societies, both fertility and mortality are high, so the total population grows rather slowly. With the development of the economy, per capita income begins to grow, which leads to improved nutrition, sanitation, medical care and, consequently, to a decrease in mortality; the result is a period of rapid population growth and a demographic shift. In its first phase, the rate of population growth increases due to a decrease in mortality, in the second phase, there is a decrease and then stabilization of the rate of population growth due to a decrease in the birth rate (Fig. 7.2). With a steady outstripping economic growth rates compared to population growth rates, per capita income continues to increase, which gradually leads to a decrease in the birth rate, small families become the norm, as people strive to maintain their growing wealth, therefore, the population growth rate slows down and begins to fall over time ... Thus, as the level of socio-economic development increases, both fertility and mortality fall, which leads to stabilization of the population.
Most of the industrialized countries have experienced a demographic shift, some regions of the world more than others are closer to its completion, that is, to a state where mortality and fertility are approximately equal. It is expected that in developing countries, too, a demographic shift in natural reproduction of the population will lead to a stabilization of its size.
Population
Mortality Fertility
falls falls
Rice. 7.2. Demographic shift
In the 1950s-1960s. in these countries there was a "population explosion" - a sharp acceleration in population growth as a result of a decrease in mortality while maintaining a high birth rate. He aggravated the problems of social and economic development of the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, turning them into global problems.
In the second phase of the demographic shift, due to the decline in the birth rate, a “demographic window” of economic opportunities opens, which is characterized by the maximum share of the working-age population and low indicators of the demographic load. If there are fewer dependent children in relation to the working-age population,
there is an opportunity to make investments that will contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction. However, this "window" is temporary. It closes when, due to declining birth rates, an aging population occurs and the ratio of dependents (children and the elderly) to the working-age population begins to rise again.
Some countries in Southeast Asia, such as the Republic of Korea and Thailand, and a number of Latin American countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, have taken advantage of the economic opportunities of the demographic window. A decline in fertility in Brazil contributed to a 0.7% CAGR in GDP; similar phenomena have been reported in Mexico and other Latin American countries. Regions of the world are currently at different stages of a demographic shift in the natural population movement. In many countries, the transition period is just beginning. Only 11 countries are projected to reach the maximum share of the working-age population by 2050.
The demographic shift is attributed to "social modernization." It is a complex of changes, including improved health care and access to family planning, higher participation in education, especially among women, economic growth and higher per capita incomes, urbanization and growing employment opportunities. Stabilization of the world's population will depend on the continuation or acceleration of economic development in the countries of the world. However, a number of factors can inhibit demographic shift, including stagnant economic growth, poverty, and cultural factors that encourage the desire to have a large family despite prosperity.
In some countries, population growth will inevitably continue due to such an objective phenomenon as “Demographic inertia”. This is a population growth due to the fact that, despite the decline in female fertility, the number of children is increasing, as due to population growth in the past, more women who have reached reproductive age are starting a family. This problem is especially relevant for those developing countries where high rates of population growth were observed 20-30 years ago. Here, due to the relatively high concentration of the population that has reached reproductive age, population growth will continue, and this despite the fact that the replacement level of fertility has already been achieved.
As the younger generation reaches reproductive age, the increased fertility will exceed the death rate of previous generations. This explains the paradox of the second half of the 20th century, which is that, despite a decrease in the rate of population growth as a result of a decrease in the number of births per woman (from 1952 to 2001, this indicator decreased from 5.1 to 2.7 births per woman), one woman), the world's population has grown dramatically: from 2.5 billion in 1950 to over 6 billion at the beginning of the third millennium.
7.3. International population migration
The world's population is growing through natural reproduction. But the reproduction of the population of a separate country can be carried out due not only to the natural movement of the population, but also to international migration. International population migration includes people leaving the country (emigration) and people entering the country (immigration). The overall increase in the country's population relative to the previous period reflects the number of not only births and deaths, but also migrations from the country and to the country.
The population of some developed countries continues to grow due to massive immigration, despite natural decline. Natural growth remains the main source of population growth in such developed countries as Australia, the USA, Japan, while in almost all European developed countries, population growth occurs due to immigration, although even in the early 1960s. natural increase was the main source of population growth in Europe. In the absence of immigration, the population would have begun to decline in Germany since 1986, in Italy since 1993, and in Sweden since 1997. The exception is France, where the rate of natural growth has declined by no more than 3%. In the period from 1990 to 1995, 45% of all population growth in developed countries occurred due to immigration, in Europe this share was 88%.
According to the UN methodology, an international migrant is a person who has changed his country of residence. Migration does not include movement related to visiting relatives and friends, for purposes of study or medical treatment, as well as for business, cultural or religious purposes. Depending on the duration
distinguish long-term and short-term migration. Long-term migration means staying in another country for more than one year, while short-term migration means at least three months, but not more than one year.
International migration includes both voluntary and forced displacement for political, social, economic and other reasons. The reasons for population migration are wars and conflicts, natural disasters, a higher level of welfare and wages abroad, etc. According to the United Nations Population Division, in 2000 there were 175 million international migrants in the world, i.e. almost 3 % of the world's population, while in 1960 the number of such people was 79 million. More developed regions of the world are home to 60% of all migrants. Most of them are in Europe (56 million), Asia (50 million) and North America (41 million). Almost every tenth inhabitant of the more developed regions of the world is a migrant, in developing countries - every first in 70 people.
Within 10 years - from 1990 to 2000 - the number of migrants in the world increased by 21 million, i.e., by 14%. The overall net increase in the number of migrants took place in the more developed regions. In Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan as a whole, the total number of migrants increased by 23 million, or 28%. From 1995 to 2000, almost 12 million migrants moved from less developed regions of the world to more developed regions. The largest annual net increase in migrants was noted in North America (1.4 million people), in Europe, where the average annual migration balance was 0.8 million people, in Oceania (90 thousand people). The greatest the number international migrants are typical for the United States, which is home to 35 million migrants, followed by the Russian Federation (13 million people) and Germany (7 million people).
The greatest share migrants in the total population are typical for some countries in Western Asia: the United Arab Emirates (74%), Kuwait (58%), Jordan (40%) and Israel (37%). One of the current trends in international migration is associated with the growth of immigration to developing countries. In 1990, residents born abroad accounted for only 1.6% of the population in these countries, while in developed countries -
4.5%. Currently, the strongest growth in immigration is characteristic of developing countries, approximately half of all international migration occurs within this group of countries. For a number of developing countries, the growth of emigration to developed countries has positive consequences, since one of the main sources of foreign exchange and a significant addition to their gross national income are remittances sent by migrants to their home countries. For example, in 2000, remittances accounted for more than 10% of gross national income in countries such as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cape Verde, El Salvador, Jamaica, Jordan, Nicaragua, Samoa, and Yemen.
About 9% of migrants are refugees. At the end of 2000, there were 16 million refugees in the world, of which 3 million were in developed countries and 13 million in developing countries. The largest number of refugees is in Asia and Africa. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has 12 million refugees and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) 4 million.
International migratory movements have a significant economic, socio-cultural and demographic impact on sending, transit and receiving regions in such matters as low birth rates and aging populations, unemployment, brain drain and their influx, migrant remittances, human rights, social integration, xenophobia, cross-border smuggling, national security. Migration makes a positive contribution to the economic and cultural development of both sending and receiving countries, but it also has negative consequences, such as increasing illegal immigration and increasing flows of refugees and asylum seekers. In this regard, there is a growing need for a migration policy that would make it possible to overcome the negative consequences and constructively use the advantages of international population migration.
Many countries have national policies to regulate the scale and structure of international migration. The proportion of countries that have embarked on policies to limit immigration has increased from 6% in 1976 to 40% in 2001. Many countries have adopted programs or policies for international migrants or refugees; laws on international migrants and migrant workers are being introduced; efforts are being made to expand international conventions on refugees, asylum seekers and illegal migrants; laws were being passed on trafficking in persons, especially women and children.
The migration policy of the countries is aimed at solving those problems that are most urgent for them. For example, the policy of a number of African countries, such as Ghana and the United Republic of Tanzania, has focused on the issue of resettlement of refugees. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the focus is on creating incentives for citizens to return, while in Eastern Europe, the Arab States and Central Asian republics, the focus is on protecting labor markets and tackling drug addiction. The problems of improving the socio-psychological adaptation of immigrants in the host countries are relevant for all countries; for this purpose, measures are being taken to promote the creation of equal opportunities for access to jobs, housing, health care and education.
Some developed countries are tightening the requirements of their migration policies. For example, in 2002 Denmark restricted the right to reunite with a spouse if one of the spouses is under 24 years old. New Zealand recognizes a broader range of family structures than before, but has increased the legal responsibility of sponsors for family members they bring into the country. At the same time, Canada's policies have become less restrictive, and now the category of dependent children includes those under 22 years old, rather than 19 years old, as before.
Due to labor shortages, some developed countries have launched initiatives to facilitate the immigration of skilled workers. Several of these countries have adopted policies aimed at attracting and retaining talented students from developing countries. In an effort to curb expanding human trafficking, countries have tightened border controls and imposed additional restrictions on asylum policies. In some cases, this has inadvertently made human trafficking even more profitable, and some countries have increased the penalties for this criminal activity.
Many countries are in favor of expanding international cooperation in the field of effective migration management. A growing number of countries have established coordination mechanisms within government institutions, between governments, with the participation of non-governmental organizations and international donors. Since 1951, the international community has adopted a number of conventions and protocols aimed at protecting migrants. The most important of these include the 1951 Convention and the 1967 Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees, and the 1990 Convention and the 2000 Protocol related to the protection of migrants' rights and human trafficking.
The 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, ratified by 141 countries, provides legal protection for refugees and contains a clear definition of their status. It prohibits the expulsion or forced return of persons who have been granted refugee status. In 1967, 139 countries ratified the protocol, expanding the scope of the 1951 Convention.
The 1990 International Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families, ratified by 19 countries, establishes the responsibility of host states in respect of respecting the rights of migrants and ensuring their protection. In 2000, a protocol was adopted to prevent and suppress trafficking in persons, especially women and children, supplementing the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime; it has been ratified by 18 countries. The protocol has been ratified by 17 countries, confirming that it is a crime to smuggle in and out of people, while migration itself is not a crime and that migrants may need protection. In order to coordinate international efforts aimed at regulating migration, the UN World Commission on International Migration was established in December 2003.
7.4. Urban growth and urbanization
Migration takes place not only between countries, but also within countries. The greatest social, economic and environmental impacts are caused by the migration of rural populations to cities, enhancing urban economic growth and urbanization. Urbanization is the process by which the population of a country changes: from predominantly agricultural to urban through migration from rural areas to cities in search of more profitable jobs and favorable living conditions.
The world's urban population is currently growing 4 times faster than the rural population. If in 1980 39% of the world's population lived in cities, then in 2002 it was already 48% (about 3 billion people). In some countries, the share of the urban population is more than 80%, for example, in Argentina (90%), Belgium (97%), Brazil (84%), Denmark (86%), Israel (92%), Iceland (93%), Kuwait (96%), Lebanon (88%), Libya (87%), New Zealand (86%), Norway (80%), Saudi Arabia (88%), Sweden (83%), UK (89%), United United Arab Emirates (85%), USA (81%), Chile (88%). In Russia, 73% of the population lives in cities. It is expected that between 1990 and 2025 the number of people living in cities will double to 5 billion. Thus, more than two-thirds of the world's population will live in cities and urban areas. By some estimates, 90% of this growth will come from developing countries. Urbanization is taking place at a rapid pace in the rapidly growing economies of the Asia-Pacific region, where the average annual population growth of cities is more than 4%. Some of the least developed countries are currently experiencing the fastest pace of urbanization. Africa has the highest annual urban population growth rate (5%).
One of the characteristic features of modern urbanization is the growth of large cities. The number of megalopolises (cities with more than 8 million inhabitants) has grown from 3 (New York, Tokyo and London) in 1950 to 25 in 1995 (Table 7.4); 17 of them are located in developing countries. By 2015, this number is expected to increase to 36, of which 23 will be located in Asia.
Table 7.4
Megalopolises of the world: expected population growth, mln. human
|
Megapolis |
2000 year |
2015 g. |
|
Tokyo, Japan | ||
|
Mexico City, Mexico | ||
|
New York, USA | ||
|
Sao Paulo, Brazil | ||
|
Bombay, India | ||
|
Kolkata, India | ||
|
Shanghai, China | ||
|
Buenos Aires, Argentina | ||
|
Delhi, India | ||
|
Los Angeles, USA | ||
|
Osaka, Japan | ||
|
Jakarta, Indonesia | ||
|
Beijing, China | ||
|
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil | ||
|
Cairo, Egypt | ||
|
Dhaka, Bangladesh | ||
|
Moscow, Russia | ||
|
Karachi, Pakistan | ||
|
Manila, Philippines | ||
|
Seoul, Republic of Korea | ||
|
Paris, France | ||
|
Tianjin. China | ||
|
Istanbul, Turkey | ||
|
Lagos, Nigeria | ||
|
Chicago, USA |
A source-. VVbrld Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Department of Economic and Social affairs. Population Division ST/ ESA/ SER. A/237. P 78-79.
Urbanization brings with it both benefits and challenges. The concentration of the population in urban areas can contribute to economic growth: the higher the share of the urban population in a country, the more capacious its markets are considered. However, growing urbanization has negative consequences for the environment, as it increases the consumption of natural resources such as trees, fresh drinking water. It contributes to the growth of environmental pollution, leads to a deterioration
air and water quality, which can have adverse effects on human health and the environment.
An increase in social problems is also associated with urbanization. The annual growth of the urban population is more than 60 million, which creates problems for local and central authorities regarding the provision of basic social services. According to some estimates, from 25 to 50% of the urban population in developing countries live in unsuitable places, deprived of drinking water, sanitation, and garbage collection procedures. Both the state of the environment and people's health and well-being are at risk.
7.5. Population growth and global problems
The economic and social implications of population growth are being widely discussed. Population dynamics are closely related to a number of global problems, primarily the problem of poverty, food and environmental problems. A significant part of the world's population already lacks the basic conditions necessary for a healthy life. About 1.3 billion people live in absolute poverty, 840 million people lack food, about 1.4 billion people lack drinking water, and about 900 million people are illiterate.
According to some estimates, the “demographic impact” negatively affects living standards, while low fertility, on the contrary, can lead to an improvement in the economic situation. In 2001, a study was conducted in 45 countries, the results of which showed that if in the 1980s. these countries have reduced the birth rate by five newborns per 1000 people, then the national average poverty rate, which was in the mid-1980s. 18.9%, would have decreased between 1990-1995. up to 12.6%. Population growth raises concerns for countries that are less able to cope with the consequences to which it leads. Key challenges relate to providing a growing population with an adequate level of income, food security, jobs, and basic social services. In addition, proper management of natural resources is essential, which in many developing countries continue to directly support the survival of most of the population.
In recent years, in many countries, population growth has caused an increase in food production, however food problem has not yet been resolved. About 800 million people are chronically malnourished and 2 billion people are food insecure. Today, 3/4 of the world's fish stocks are harvested at their marginal levels. Over the past 50 years, fishing vessels have captured at least 90% of large oceanic predators, including tuna, marlin and swordfish.
The activities of human society are making visible changes in the global environment and leading to growth environmental problems. In many places, population growth is accelerating the destruction of forests, fish stocks and agricultural land. Populations directly affected by environmental degradation are concentrated in the least developed countries in sub-Saharan Africa, southern Asia and parts of Latin America. The vital activity of the population leads to a change in the global climate, the loss of vital non-renewable resources, as well as to an increase in environmental pollution.
To assess anthropogenic pressure on global ecosystems, such a concept as the "ecological footprint" is used. It is an estimate expressed in territorial units. Each unit corresponds to the number of hectares of biologically productive land needed to produce food and timber for one person, build human infrastructure and absorb carbon dioxide from fuel combustion. Thus, this indicator makes it possible to take into account the overall human impact on the environment. The world's ecological footprint is a function of population size, average per capita resource consumption and the energy intensity of the technologies used. For the period 1970-1996. The world's ecological footprint increased from 11,000 million localities to more than 16,000 million. However, the global average per capita footprint remained virtually unchanged throughout 1985-1996. and amounted to 2.85 territorial units.
The Ecological Footprint varies markedly across the world, depending on the level of industrial development and consumption patterns. The ecological footprint of the average person in a high-income country is about 6 times that of a person living in a low-income country, and much larger than the footprint of a person in a least developed country.
Economists and environmentalists use the following equation that links population, consumption, and technology to describe their relative environmental impacts:
where B is the impact;
H - population;
P - consumption;
T-technologies.
Anthropogenic impact is determined by the multiplication of three factors: population, consumption and technology (population x abundance x technology). This approach allows one to take into account all the sources of the impact of human society on nature. For example, although the United States is only one-fourth of India's population, its ecological footprint is three times greater: The United States releases 15.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually, while India releases 4.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. The environmental impact may continue to increase even if population growth stabilizes. In China, for example, population growth has fallen sharply, but oil and coal consumption and related pollution continue to rise.
7.6. Demographic policy
In order to regulate population problems, the governments of many countries are pursuing demographic policies. Measures such as increasing education, especially for girls, improving family planning services, health insurance, retirement plans, social security, improving health care and reducing child mortality, and clarifying the problems associated with rapid population growth are aimed at reducing the rate of population growth. Some of the most successful strategies to reduce fertility include:
ensuring access to basic health care and family planning services;
providing basic education, especially for girls and women;
provision of state social insurance for sickness, old age and unemployment.
Both developing and developed countries need policies that increase labor supply, savings and productivity. In 50 years, labor supply may decline in Japan by 35%, Italy by 30% and Germany by 17%.
In developed countries, there is widespread discussion of a range of measures that could increase the supply of labor. First, these are measures aimed at increasing the supply of labor from women and older people (both men and women), including the reform of the pension system and the development of incentives to work. However, these measures cannot fully compensate for the decline in the working-age population. Secondly, this is an increase in the labor force due to the growth of immigration, however, to solve this problem only through immigration, too large an influx of foreign labor may be required. Third, an increase in the retirement age by an average of seven years. Fourth, a policy aimed at increasing fertility, but this measure, if it is effective, can produce results with a time lag. Fertility policies have played a positive role in reducing fertility to reduce fertility in developing countries, but the effectiveness of policies to increase fertility is not guaranteed. Proponents of special measures related to increasing fertility often turn to the experience of the Scandinavian countries. Measures have been taken here to encourage women to become mothers and to participate more actively in the supply of labor, which has led to an increase in fertility, although this policy was aimed at achieving a wider range of social goals. On the other hand, the United States has recently seen an increase in fertility, although no special measures have been taken.
Thus, each of the measures proposed in developed countries has its own certain limitations. However, their joint use in demographic policy can preserve the share of the working-age population that exists today until 2050. According to some estimates, with this approach, that is, acting simultaneously in several directions, it is enough to increase the share of the economically active population by 3-4%, bring the share of immigrants in the total population to 10% and increase the retirement age by 2.3 years.
In developing countries, on the other hand, policy should not be aimed at increasing the labor force, but at providing the growing working-age population with training and work. Measures are needed to ensure flexibility in labor markets, as well as to improve education and training, in order to create a workforce with the necessary knowledge and skills. However, the creation of new jobs, the implementation of education and training programs require additional sources of funding.
The world economy expands the possibilities of both developed and developing countries in solving a number of demographic problems. The international movement of goods and services, labor and capital allows the redistribution of global resources, ensuring their more efficient use. For example, developing countries can obtain the necessary financial resources in the global financial markets to create new jobs, but this can lead to increased risks and financial crises. International labor mobility can provide such an important source of foreign exchange earnings to developing countries as remittances from emigrants to their families, which currently amount to about $ 70 billion annually, that is, the same amount as developing countries receive in official assistance for development. However, at the same time, the growth of emigration can lead to a "brain drain", therefore, the use of the opportunities opened up by the growth of the integrity of the world economy requires government regulation and a balanced economic policy that takes into account the interests and needs of different countries.
The modern world economy is characterized by continued population growth, but it is slowing down. At the same time, there are significant differences in demographic processes observed in developed, developing countries and in countries with economies in transition.
In developed countries that have completed the “demographic shift”, declining fertility and increasing life expectancy have consequences such as population stabilization and aging. International migration is becoming the main source of population growth in these countries.
In many developing countries, despite declining fertility, high population growth rates persist due to “demographic inertia”.
In many countries with economies in transition, which have gone through a deep economic crisis in connection with the transition from a planned-administrative system of management to a market economy and a deterioration in living conditions, there is a decline in the population, leading to depopulation.
Population growth creates preconditions for a number of global problems: poverty, food and environmental problems.
The world economy and the growing openness of national economies expand the possibilities of countries in solving socio-demographic problems, but at the same time it is necessary to pursue an economic policy that would take into account the interests and needs of various countries of the world.
Practical tasks
Calculate the average annual population growth rate using the data in table. 7.5. Check out the app data. 20. Discuss the population projection presented in it, based on the results of the calculations.
Even a small rate of population growth gives a large absolute increase and has a large impact on the population. In 2002, the world population was 6.2 billion. If the average annual population growth rate was 1.1%, what would be the population growth rate in 2002? If the world's population grew at the same rate as the UK, how much would it grow? If the world's population grew at the same rate as in Uganda in 2002, how much would it grow?
3. In conditions of low growth rates, the population grows slowly, and if the growth rates are high, then the population grows very quickly. The number of years it takes to double the population can be determined by dividing 70 by the population growth rate. Using the results of the calculations, determine how many years it will take to double the population of the countries listed in Table. 7.5.
4. Study the data on the age structure of the population of Russia (Table 7.3). Compare them with data for the entire world economy, 1a also for groups of countries. Formulate your conclusions.
Table 7.5
Demographic indicators of selected countries of the world in 2002
|
Number of |
Fertility, |
Mortality, |
Average year |
|
|
Country |
population, |
human |
human |
howl rate at |
|
thousand people |
for 1 thousand |
on 1 thous. |
growth,% |
|
|
residents |
residents | |||
|
All countries of the world |
6 198,5 | |||
|
Uganda | ||||
|
Russia | ||||
|
China |
1 280,4 | |||
|
United Kingdom | ||||
|
Japan |
The current Russian demographic situation is usually defined as a crisis. Modern Russia is characterized by: a very low birth rate, high mortality, a large natural decline in the population, a rapid aging of the population, a very large difference in the average duration of male and female life, great changes in the entire sphere of love, marriage and family life in comparison with the recent past. All aspects of the current demographic situation are closely interconnected. The country's population is a complex system with great inertia. The current situation is largely determined by the country's demographic past, and the future, accordingly, by the demographic present. For a realistic idea of the possible and most probable demographic future of Russia, let us take a look at the country's hundred-year history.
The population of pre-Soviet Russia grew rapidly. It was characterized by a very high birth rate and high mortality (especially infant) and a large natural increase in the population. So, over 17 years, from 1897 (the first all-Russian population census) to 1914, the number of its inhabitants increased (within the current borders of the Russian Federation) from 67.5 to 89.9 million, that is, by 33.2%. The First World War and the Civil War, the emigration of the "first wave", and the famine of the early 1920s reduced the population of Russia. By the beginning of 1923, according to official data, there were 87.8 million inhabitants, that is, more than two million less than at the beginning of 1914.
During the NEP years, a powerful "population explosion" took place, that is, a sharp increase in natural population growth due to a strong decrease in mortality while maintaining a high birth rate. This "explosion" was stopped by the collectivization of agriculture and the subsequent "Holodomor" of 1932-1933. In 1936, policymakers passed a banning abortion ordinance. That increased the birth rate for several years. In 1942-1946. fertility, naturally, was especially low. Huge military losses in the Great Patriotic War led to a strong decrease in the population. Its pre-war number was reached only in 1955. Due to the enormous military losses in Russia, there was no usual baby boom after long wars. The post-war birth rate was much lower than the pre-war one. However, the large number of "children of the NEP", the younger part of whom was not drafted by age into the army during the war, and the last draft age was preserved better than the previous ones, led to the appearance of the penultimate generation in Russia. In the 1950s, 2.8 million children were born annually in the country. And mortality, especially infant mortality, has dropped sharply in comparison with the pre-war. This post-war generation is still relatively populous.
In the 60s. the last century, there was again a deep demographic failure. In 1960, 2 million 783 thousand children appeared in Russia, in 1968 - only 1 million 817 thousand, that is, only 65.3% of the 1960 level. This rapid decline was commonly understood by non-demographers as the "echo of war." At that time, the age of the highest age-specific birth rate was entered by the sparsely populated generation born during the war years and shortly after it. Few potential parents - few, respectively, and births. There is some truth in this explanation of this failure. However, studies have shown that the main reason for the decline in the number of births was a decrease in the number of children for an average woman, a massive transition to a family with few children (with one or two children). This accounted for about 60% of the decline at the time. In the mid-1960s, Russia moved from expanded reproduction to a narrowed one, that is, when the number of children born is insufficient to quantitatively replace the parental generation.
This crop yield increased steadily and rapidly until the early 1980s. In the Soviet Union, on the whole, the situation was better than in Russia, since the six "Muslim" Asian republics, where the birth rate was noticeably higher, compensated for the "crop failure" in Russia and the European republics of the Union.
In March 1981, policymakers passed a decree aimed at increasing the birth rate and improving the upbringing of the younger generation. According to it, women in labor received, in particular, partially paid leave until the child reaches one year of age (then extended to one and a half years), as well as a number of other less important benefits. The partial payment for this leave was 70 rubles per month for all female workers. This was a considerable sum for that time (the average salary of workers and employees of the USSR was 169 rubles in 1980). The implementation of this decree led to an increase in the birth rate by 10% in two years. But already in 1984 it dropped noticeably. This means that the adopted incentives led not so much to population growth as to a certain shift in births in time: some children appeared earlier than it would have been without state incentives for births.
Perestroika caused another rise in the birth rate. For several years, Russia returned to simple reproduction of the population (numerical equality of the parent and child generations), which had not happened since the first half of the 60s of the XX century. In 1986 and 1987. in Russia, 2.5 million babies were born.
The absolute minimum - 1.2 million births - fell on the post-default 1999. Since 2000, the number of annual births has begun to increase. In 2003-2005. 1.5 million children were born. This increase is presented in the media as an increase in the birth rate, but, unfortunately, this is a gross mistake associated with the low demographic literacy of journalists. According to the official data of state statistics, the total fertility rate in the country in 2002 was equal to 1.286, and in 2005 - 1.287 (Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2006, p. 93). At this level of fertility, the average woman will have 1.3 births in her entire life. And for simple reproduction of the country's population, 2.1 births per woman are needed. A slight increase in the birth rate was compared with the most "lean" post-default 1999, as a reaction to the deepest decline in the birth rate (birth rate) at the end of the last century.
The absolute number of births strongly depends on the number and age composition of women of fertile age. And these indicators in Russia change strongly and rapidly over time due to its characteristic "demographic waves", that is, intermittent, successive generations. The scope of the "demographic waves" of the last half century of Russian history was as follows: in 1960 2.8 million children were born, in 1969 - 1.8, 1987 - 2.5, 1999 - 1.2, 2005 - 1.5 million.
The latest rise is due to the fact that the populous generation born in the 80s of the last century is entering the age when most have children, and by no means because of the increase in the birth rate.
There are more potential young parents - more, respectively, children will be born. The level of reproduction of the population of Russia in recent years has been less than 2/3 of the simple one. The intensification of the state demographic policy will undoubtedly lead to a noticeable increase in the birth rate, and not only in the number of births. This is convincingly evidenced by the precedent of the early 1980s.
The country came to the current critical demographic situation very quickly. From the demographic explosion of the 20s of the last century to the beginning of the narrowed reproduction of the population (mid-1960s) - only one generation. Demographic changes from the first All-Russian population census at the end of the 19th century to the present day can be seen from Table 1. ( Application). It shows the transition from the traditional model of population reproduction - with a very high birth rate and high mortality, to the modern one - with a low birth rate and higher mortality. This transition is typical for the whole world. First of all, it began in the advanced, most "advanced" socio-economic countries of the world in the middle of the 18th century, and in Russia - at the end of the last century. The highest rates of population reproduction in the entire Russian history were in the 20s of the last century. Numerous "children of the NEP" gave rise to a relatively populous post-war generation, although the level of population reproduction dropped significantly.
Demographics in the late 1950s are close to optimal. This is an average three-child family (non-family children, of course, have fewer children), the children's generation is about a fifth more numerous than the parent generation. This state provides a noticeable increase in the population of the country. Large natural growth rate of the late 1950s ( see table. 1, appendix) - a consequence of the "youth" of the population of that time, that is, a high proportion of people in the ages of high fertility, on the one hand, and a small proportion of the elderly and old people, who have a high mortality rate, on the other.
The 1959 census showed alarming demographic trends - a very narrowed reproduction of the urban population of Russia and the inevitability of a rapid increase in the share of city dwellers, especially since a small generation born in 1942-1946 was entering adulthood. This inevitably caused a noticeable decline in average fertility. Let me remind you that the total fertility rate among the citizens of Russia in 1961-1962. was equal to only 1.935, while for rural residents - 3.195 (Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2006, p. 93), that is, 65% more.
The official demographic forecast until the end of 1980, made by the State Planning Committee and the Central Statistical Administration of the USSR, turned out to be erroneous. The forecasted number was overestimated in comparison with reality by 13.4 million people. There is reason to believe that it was based on the idea of a direct relationship between fertility and living standards. The labor shortage in the national economy and the radiant demographic forecast caused the policy of "involving women in social production" (or contributed to it), which were already "involved" beyond all measure. I well remember how the "parasites" were evicted from the cities, how the police went from door to door and asked: "Why don't you work?" This "involvement" further reduced the birth rate, since the so-called "housewives" had significantly more children than the "working" women.
In the 60s of the last century, there was a massive transition to a small family, which led directly to a narrowed reproduction of the population. For simple reproduction (equality of parental and children's generations), a massive average family with three or four children is needed. In demography, "the third is decisive."
And the demographic failure of the 60s. - an important factor in the current (late last - early XXI century) failure.
Between the first Soviet (1926) and the first post-Soviet (2002) general censuses of the population of Russia - for 3/4 century - the number of its inhabitants increased from 92.7 to 145.2 million - by 56.6%. The average growth rate of its population was much lower than the world one. The world's population has grown rapidly in the second half of the last century. In 1950, the population of the Earth was 2.5 billion people, and in 2007 - 6.6 billion, that is, 2.6 times more. Russia, on the other hand, moved to a narrowed reproduction of the population, and then to its natural decline. The share of Russia in the world population was rapidly falling. Now it is just over 2%.
A large decline in the birth rate has led to a rapid aging of the population, that is, an increase in the proportion of old people, an increase in the average age. At the beginning of the Soviet period, the population of Russia was demographically young, now it is old.
The youth of the population in 1926 greatly helped the country in the Great Patriotic War and in the restoration of the national economy after it. Boys in 1926 (a group under the age of 15) were drafted into the army during the war and made up the majority of its manpower. Despite the fact that the population of Russia has increased by more than half over three quarters of a century, the number of children has decreased dramatically: in 2002 there were only 23.7 million of them - against 34.5 million in 1926, and their share in the population has decreased by more than half. The share of the elderly and the elderly increased 2.7 times. There are more of them than children. The ratio of children and persons of older working age speaks of the inevitability of a large decline in the population of working age in the coming years.
This, in general terms, is the demographic situation in Russia that has developed before the next revival of the state demographic policy. Since 2001, the natural decline in the Russian population has been declining. But this reduction is temporary, one of the consequences of receiving the “demographic dividend” associated with the Russian age pyramid. When the change in the ratio of different age groups was favorable, beneficial from an economic, social, demographic point of view.
On the one hand, a significant increase in the number of potential mothers contributed to an increase in the number of births, on the other hand, a halt in growth and even a decrease in the number of elderly people slowed down the growth in the number of deaths (starting in 2001, the 60-year boundary was crossed by a small generation of 1941 and subsequent years of birth, due to of which the number of people aged 60 and over fell by 10% between 2001 and 2006).
The influence of both of these factors is already weakening, but it will persist for some time, which will contribute to a further reduction in natural population decline - until approximately 2012. But by that time, the number of potential mothers will return to the level of the early 90s, with which it began. an increase and an increase in the number of the elderly will again gain strength due to the largest post-war generations born in 1949-1960. Accordingly, the growth of natural population decline will resume. This growth may be more or less depending on how much it will be possible to reduce mortality and increase fertility in the coming years, but none of the forecasters expects such changes in mortality and fertility that could completely exclude this growth.
Thus, the natural decline in population will not disappear, but after going through a period of temporary decline, it will begin to grow again. An idea of the scale of the expected decline is given by the average variant of the demographic forecast of Rosstat (2008), according to which it, having reached a minimum of 463 thousand people in 2010, will already exceed 600 thousand in 2017, and in 2025 it will surpass 800 thousand people. In total, over 19 years (2008-2025), the natural decline in the population of Russia, according to this forecast scenario, will exceed 11 million people. Some other projections predict even greater population decline.
At the same time, in contrast to the previous period, natural population decline will be accompanied by an inevitable deterioration in structural relationships, which can have the most serious economic, social and political consequences.
In the near future, the country expects a sharp decline in the population of working age. In accordance with the criteria adopted in Russia, it is customary to classify men from 16 to 60 and women from 16 to 55 as working (able-bodied) ages. Over the past 5-6 decades, the size of the able-bodied population determined in this way, despite some fluctuations, has generally grown. However, the period of this growth is over. In 2006 and 2007. the population of working age was declining, and this was only the beginning of its sharp and long-term decline. According to the average version of the forecast of Rosstat, for 2009-2025. its decline will amount to 14 million people. The most probable value of the decline in the population at working age for 2008-20025. - 13.9 million people, within the 60% confidence interval, this value can range (rounded off) from 11 to 17 million.
A decline in the population of working age will be accompanied by a drop in its share in the entire population and an increase in the demographic load - the number of people in preworking and postworking ages per 1000 people of working age. It is especially important that the temporary respite associated with some reduction in the number of elderly people is coming to an end, and it will begin to grow rapidly again. All this time, starting from 1992, the number of persons of retirement age was kept at the level of 29-30 million. But now it is starting to grow steadily, according to the average version of the forecast of Rosstat, already in 20011 it will exceed 31 million - this is how many pensioners we have never was - and by 2025 it will increase by about 5 million more people.
At the same time, the number of children and adolescents under 16 will also increase. Now there are very few of them - by the beginning of 2008 there were a little more than 22 million of them - the smallest value in the entire history of the 20th century. In the coming years, the number of children and adolescents will grow as a result of the rise in the birth rate since 1999 and due to the fact that the smallest cohorts born in the 1990s go beyond the pre-working age. Most likely, this growth will not last long and will not be very significant. According to the average version of the forecast of Rosstat, the number of children and adolescents at the beginning of the third decade will approach 26 million. Even if we imagine the simultaneous realization of all the most favorable predictive hypotheses regarding an increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality, then the number of children and adolescents by 2024-2026 will be it will hardly be able to reach 30 million (2000 level), after which it will begin to decline again. Nevertheless, in the next 10-15 years, the number of children and adolescents will increase, and this increase will contribute to the growth of the “dependent load” per person able to work.
According to Rosstat estimates (medium forecast), the total burden of children and the elderly per 1000 people of working age will increase from 578 per 1000 (a historical minimum registered in 2007) to almost 700 in 2015 and to 822 in 2025, respectively. by 20% and by 41%. At the same time, the contribution of the elderly to the total burden, which in 1970 was approximately 35%, will now amount to 55-60%. If, however, a more optimistic version of the forecast is implemented, which assumes a rapid increase in the birth rate, then the total demographic burden in 2025 will be even greater - almost 880 dependents per 1000 able-bodied workers.
Population aging is a global trend arising from the new balance of births and deaths, which is taking shape during the demographic transition. One of the main manifestations of aging is a significant increase in the proportion of older people in the population. It begins as a result of declining fertility (“aging from the bottom”), and then intensifies with a decrease in mortality among the elderly (“aging from the top”).
In Russia, the share of people aged 60 and over between 1960 and 2006 increased from 9% to 17%, which corresponds to the share of this age group in the US population, but significantly lower than in the European Union (22%) or in Japan ( 27%). The aging of the Russian population continues, and in 2025 the share of people aged 60 and over will reach 23%, i.e. will exceed the current European level. At the same time, the proportion of elderly people aged 80 and over will increase rapidly.
Another important consequence of aging is a change in the ratio of older and younger age groups in the composition of the economically active population: the proportion of older people is increasing, while the proportion of younger ones is decreasing.
There have never been such age ratios in the past, all historically formed economic and social institutional systems - education, health care, employment, provision in old age, etc. - have been adapted to a much younger age structure. Reforming all these systems in order to adapt them to irreversibly changed age ratios is one of the main tasks of the coming decades.
The demographic future of Russia largely depends on the number of children born in the country. Now it is small, which causes justified concern in public opinion and the country's leadership. Measures are being taken to increase the birth rate and, accordingly, its role as a component of the future dynamics of the population of Russia, however, solving this problem at the stage of demographic development that Russia is now entering will be even more difficult than at the previous stage.
The current low birth rate and a small number of births (about 1.5 million per year versus 2.2-2.5 million in the 1980s) take place in conditions close to ideal in terms of age structure during the period of receiving the “demographic dividend” ... The absolute number of women of childbearing age in Russia (in 2002-2003 it reached a historical maximum of 40 million) is large as never before, and the situation in the marriage market is extremely favorable.
However, in the coming years, these favorable conditions will remain in the past, and nothing can be changed in this sense. Since 2004, the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years) has been decreasing, by 2015 it will decrease by more than 5 million compared to 2003, by 2025 - by more than 7 million. True, the number of women in The age of the highest reproductive activity (18-29 years - the age that accounts for 75-80% of all births) continued to grow. But after 2008-2009. it will begin to decline, and by 2015 it will decrease by about 2.7 million, and by 2025 - by 5.9 million. These estimates practically do not depend on the forecast options, because all potential mothers in 2015 are equal as well as subsequent ones - until the mid-2020s - were already born.
In 2004, when the number of births (1502 thousand) was the highest between 1992 and 2007, there were 37.7 births for every 1000 women aged 15-49 years. Just in order for the same number of children to be born, including women of reproductive ages, which is expected in Russia in 2025, this indicator should increase to about 45.7 per 1000. However, given that the annual number of deaths throughout the entire the period until 2025 will exceed 2.2 million, 1.5 million births are clearly not enough. In order for the number of births to consistently exceed the number of deaths, it must be at a level close to 2300 thousand per year. For this, given the number of women of reproductive age in 2025, it is necessary that in 2025 there will be 70 births per 1000 women aged 15-49 years. Since the mid-1960s, such an indicator has never been observed in Russia; its appearance not as a short-term episode, but as a stable value over the next decades is unlikely.
"Concepts condition questions that can be posed and thus provide answers that can be obtained. Concepts are more fundamental than theories, which are formulated in terms of concepts."
Joseph John Thompson
In modern literature, especially of a demostatistical nature, the terms "demographic development" and "human development" are widely used. However, until now, no answers have been found to such methodologically relevant questions as:
a) what are the identities and differences in these concepts and in those hypostases - images of demorality that they reflect;
b) what is the relationship between human and demographic development, in particular, whether the demographic state of society characterizes the general level of human development, or vice versa; can the consideration of changes in demorality as a result-consequence of the transformation of the life activity system contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanism of interrelationships between human and demographic development;
c) what should be understood by the criteria of human and demographic development in the context of the main theoretical approaches to the study of demoality, in particular, its state, which is characterized by the reproduction of the population.
The purpose of this article is to try to reveal the relationship of the concepts indicated in its title and the interrelationships of those phenomena and entities that they reflect, in the context of considering the main trend in the development of modern demography - the formation of its demological orientation.
In the general philosophical understanding, development is “an irreversible, directed, regular change in material and ideal objects ... As the emergence of a new, development was often identified with progress, but it can be both progressive and regressive, these are its two stages, since everything that arises, doomed to perish. The combination of progress and regression is likened to a "spiral" of development. From the point of view of the depth and speed of changes, the stages of evolution and revolution are distinguished: the first is characterized by reforms, the second - by fundamental changes. " There is no demographic version of the concept and development term in the reference literature. Even in encyclopedic demographic dictionaries published in Moscow, it is absent. This situation is due to the fact that the current state of demographic knowledge is characterized by the predominance of the study of demographic phenomena. Therefore, there is no demand for the disclosure of the essence of the concepts of development and progress. There is an identification of the "simple" movement (the concept of empirical-statistical demography) with development (the concept of theoretical demography (demology).
Prospects for understanding the problem of development are closely related to progress in understanding the subject of demographic research, i.e. with progress from a purely demostatistic interpretation of it to a demological one. If we consider the reproduction of the population in the traditional demostatistical context, that is, as a "probabilistic process that creates a mass of random, single events - births and deaths", and demography as "a science that studies the patterns and social conditioning of fertility, mortality, marriage and the termination of marriage, the reproduction of married couples and families, the reproduction of the population as a whole as a unity of these processes ”, the connection with human development is very problematic, since, as these well-known definitions testify, in this way of interpreting demography, it is not at all about the development of either the population or the person. In modern demography, mainly the phenomena are studied results population movement and very slow progress is observed in the study of the essence of the demographic (including its development), which gives rise to a gnostic crisis in demography. In this regard, it should be stated: the development of a conceptual and terminological apparatus, with the help of which it is possible to record achievements in the study of the development of the demographic (which implies the study of entities and quality object and subject of demography) is not given due attention. This is evidenced by at least the fact that there are no corresponding texts in the well-known special reference books on demography. They are also absent in textbooks and monographs that contain subject indices and demographic dictionaries (see, for example,). The topics and problems of the development of demographic and its scientific knowledge are extremely insufficiently developed (in the texts of the publications cited, there are not even terms in the title of which the word “development” would be used). And the common term “demographic development” is most often understood as changes in various indicators, the limitation of the analysis of which is a sign of being in the position of statistical demography, which does not contain the potential for cognition of the essential in demographic, i.e. for the formation of demotheoretical thinking. So far, the empirical description of "the process in which high fertility and mortality is replaced by low fertility and mortality", that is statistical characteristic demographic transition is interpreted as a "theory of demographic transition", although the theory as the system scientific knowledge, "which gives a holistic and systematic idea of the laws and essential characteristics of objects," it has a very distant relationship. The fact that modern demographers do not need to use the term "development" indicates that they do not realize the need to create a theory of the object of demography ("demographic ontology") and an adequate scientific method (special demographic methodology), although only the results of such gnostic activity can deduce the demographic knowledge and knowledge beyond the subject-disciplinary boundaries of demographic statistics as production statistical information.
There is reason to believe that demographers who interpret demography as the science of "changes in population size in a certain territory and in a certain social context", i.e. in fact, they identify "classical" (as defined by A. G. Vishnevsky) demography with demographic statistics; it seems that the further development of demography will be accompanied by its going beyond the disciplinary-subject space of statistical demography (demographic statistics) and becoming patterns natural renewal of the personal composition of the population ("reproduction") in their "Socio-historical conditioning" by expanding the scope of these studies. In other words, they believe that in the future demographers will pay more and more attention to the statistical study of the conditionality of changes in the population size and its composition, increase the number of identified statistical patterns of variability of “demographic phenomena” (primarily fertility, mortality, and spatial mobility), and also try to study the subject of their science in the form of not only a closed, but also an open "demographic system". This vision of the prospects for the development of demography is based on ignoring the fact that the real subject of demographic statistics is not formed by the renewal of the personal composition (movement, "reproduction") of the population exactly as process, but only massive consequences are the results of the existence of this process. By the way, the term “population renewal” characterizes the results not only of the so-called “natural movement” (“natural” population renewal) as “replacement” of the dead by those born. When it comes to real, and not imaginary, renewal of the personal composition of the population as a set of "carriers of a certain amount of life", it cannot occur due only to "the interaction of two components of this process: fertility and mortality." If those who were born did not live for some time, then there would not be those who give birth and die, that is, the population itself could not exist, the lasting existence of which is provided not by two, but at least (if we are talking about "natural" renewal) by three “Demographic phenomena”: births of individuals, their lives and deaths. Exactly life processes as the "stay" of those born in time, provide an update of the age composition of the population. It also seems clear that the structure of the renewal of the personal composition of the population as a subject of statistical demography (demographic statistics) becomes more complicated when it describes the renewal of people not just as a set of abstract individuals, but individuals as carriers of life of a certain social quality, in other words, "products" of stay in a specific time and a specific space, that is, in a space that changes over time. That is why the model of the structure of the “minimum-specific” population renewal should consist of not three, but at least four components, that is, take into account migration. There is reason to assert that in all the arguments we know about the validity of the "broad" and "narrow" interpretation of population renewal (including its reproduction), it is not said about the structure of its actual renewal, but about the construction of models-algorithms for calculating such parameters of population renewal that it is quite simple to apply, and the results of their application satisfy the needs for demographic information of modern science and practice.
While demography will exist within the subject-disciplinary framework of demographic statistics, it will not include:
(a) to form an understanding that the demographic has been studied and researched outside the subject-disciplinary limits of demographic statistics, whose specialists observe and analyze the mass phenomena of the “demographic” biography of individuals and their statistical types (“average people”) (which are empirically characterized by statistical indicators ); not due attention will be paid to the search for noumena-essences of the demographic;
(b) create the necessary conditions for the development of the theory of the subject of demography in its non-statistical form (not in the form of studying the aggregates of "mass phenomena of social life related to a person's personality or his actions", as well as aggregates of those types of activity-behaviors of individuals that are characterized by the aforementioned " demographic phenomena "). In its composition, only the theory of its modern method will be able to develop further, that is, what experts in demographic statistics (statistical demography) call "pure" or "mathematical demography", which in the study of the statistical hypostasis of the subject of demography actually performs the function of a "demographic-applied" invariant statistical methodology.
(c) solving the actual problem of creating and developing a scientific language-terminology of theoretical thinking about the demographic, language-terminology about demographic noumena that "hide" behind demographic phenomena, that is, the problem of developing a conceptual and terminological apparatus of demology and special demographic methodology as its logic; even the very fact of the existence of this problem and its urgency will not be stated.
As a result, statistical demography will remain an empirical "servant" of branches of science and related practices adjacent to demography, and it itself will activate its own "stimulators" for expanding the scope of demographic observation and analysis of new demographic phenomena, phenomena and events (2, p. 243), and also the development of methods and techniques of their "demographic analysis". The development of demography as a science not only about demographic phenomena and phenomena, but also about demographic entities and noumena can provide the deployment of research non-statistical hypostases of the demographic, since the increase in the types of conceivable demographic entities and noumena should give rise to the need to expand the empirical-statistical study of their phenomena and phenomena. “With the growth of culture and civilization,” noted M. V. Ptukha, “both the number and the variety of human actions and events in a person’s life increase ...”… filling the entire final scheme seems to be an unattainable ideal so far ”[ibid., P. 68].
Could a demostatistical approach to understanding the subject of demography in human development research be successful? To answer this question, one must have a clear understanding of its modern concept. The characteristics of this concept are stated, in particular, in the publications of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M.V. Ptukha of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. It is known that for the first time now applied conceptual approach to understanding human development was developed by a group of UNDP experts and outlined in the 1990 global human development report. According to the logic of this concept, the development of society is viewed not as a means of economic growth, but as the goal of social development, that is, a person is placed at the center of the theory of social development.
Human development is the global goal of any modern socially oriented society. In one of the latest monographic publications devoted to this issue, the development of society is interpreted as an integral characteristic of achievements on the path of progress and culture, and it is concluded that in its most general form, it is “now defined as a process of growth of human capabilities in the interests of man and by his own forces, that ensured by political freedom, human rights, public respect for the individual, a healthy environment. " The problem of human development is especially relevant in times of crisis.
The mentioned concept is based on the fact that the level of human development is considered as an integral characteristic - a criterion of social progress, and the development of society is also considered as progress in expanding human capabilities. The main components of human development correspond to the basic generally recognized values of people and reflect their basic needs, namely: a long and healthy life, knowledge, access to the resources necessary for a decent standard of living. The content of human development, according to the authors of the concept, is the formation of "positive human qualities and characteristics." In other words, it can be characterized as the development of the "average person". It follows from this that, at its core, the analyzed concept is based, like the overwhelming majority of demographic studies, on a statistical approach, and this is its methodological similarity and the basis for the conclusion that the mentioned "characteristics" cannot change in different directions, that is, "human development "- simultaneously and" demographic development ", and in this sense (in the direction of" movement ") they are unidirectional. If "human" and "demographic development" in the concept discussed above can coincide (in epistemology), then their state cannot but coincide in ontology. Simplifying somewhat, it can be argued that in the same way certain indicators of life expectancy or education have the same numerical value and dynamics both in the study of human development and the development of the population. But the development of society in a statistical context is only a manifestation of its essence, and not a characteristic of the essence itself. The essence is characterized by the type of being-human activity, the origins of which are rooted in social relations.
At the same time, provisions are included in the concept of human development, the potential methodological capabilities of which are almost never used today, but it is they that "push" towards its further advancement. This is the provision that “the formation and implementation of human potential is based on the activities of the population, the effectiveness of which, in turn, is determined by the quality of the components of human potential” and that “labor activity is one of the system-forming factors of social life (from my point of view, not "One of", but a backbone). It is the use of these provisions, developed by demologists, that gives a chance to develop the essential characteristics of human development. And that such a need has already been actualized, is evidenced, in particular, by attempts to expand the range of indicators, in the study of which an integrated index can be obtained, more generally reflecting the state of human development. But on the basis of any direct use of the achievements of statistical demography, it is impossible to know historical types ( stages, steps, cycles) of human development, i.e. reveal its essence. It should not be forgotten that in the “demographic” behavior – activity – actions of a person, it is manifested in its entirety, and not some separate “part” of it, a property, no matter how many statistical indicators it is characterized.
Mutual enrichment of the concepts of human and demographic development should take place, first of all, on the basis of progress in theoretical demography. But, as already mentioned, there is reason to assert that the current state of demographic knowledge is characterized by a gnostic crisis. The possibility of deepening the conceptual basis of the study of human development as a field of knowledge, in which not only empirical developments of the relevant topic should be carried out, but also searches of a theoretical nature, opens the refusal to identify demography with demographic statistics, that is, the development of demology. In modern domestic demographic literature there are already publications, the authors of which are making attempts to deal with such problems of the development of theoretical demography, the solution of which will be the key to the transition of human development research to a higher level.
To go beyond the subject-disciplinary boundaries of demographic statistics, the population must be considered as concrete historical, and its self-reproduction - as the preservation in space-time of its measure (unity of quality and quantity). This approach is aimed at thinking of updating the personal composition of the population in the form of an emergent property of the system of all vital activity in a particular social organism. For example, a theoretical study of fertility should provide for the creation of hypotheses regarding the structure and mechanisms of the existence of a system, the substrate of which is formed by certain actions of individuals, the structure is the demographic function of these actions in the social form, mainly of marriage and family, and the external environment is other social forms. In other words, the object of demography ceases to be interpreted in the form of a specific “demographic” type of behavior of people in a separate “demographic” space and time, and the renewal of the personal composition of the population is considered as a result of the summation - averaging of the consequences - of the results of the "demographic behavior" of individuals belonging to a certain population ... The implementation of this approach opens up the prospect of a theoretical study of the process of updating the personal composition of the population of a specific historical quality through the creation and use of models of this process as systems, the substrate of which is the demographic results of the behavior of individuals in various spheres of life (that is, not the individuals themselves), but the structure - demographic functions concrete historical social relations.
The social core of the population's self-reproduction is the formation of people in the world of work. The labor process is the most essential, system-forming structure of the demographic process, which ensures the development of the most important properties of the population. Changes in social labor are the material basis for changes in the mechanism of self-reproduction of the population. The branch of demography that studies the massive continuous process of individuals acquiring specific historical properties in the world of work is the economics of the demographic process. Theoretical research in the field of economics of the demographic process (demoeconomics) creates a leading element of demology, at least now. This understanding of the object and subject of demography creates a gnostic space in which the prospect of the development of modern demography opens up as a sphere of application of the entire arsenal of methods for studying life activity, creates new opportunities for deepening knowledge both in all branches of demography and in human development studies.
According to the outlined concept of Ukrainian demologists, the development of self-reproduction of the population is, first of all, a change in its quality, accompanied by the complication of socio-demographic space and time as the evolution of this space and time within the existence of a certain historical type of demorality. The mechanism of this development consists in increasing coherence, reducing the tension of antagonistic contradictions in the coexistence of various parts (components) of the structure of society, primarily socio-economic. A society in which there is deep socioeconomic polarization and a high level of poverty - the prerequisites for the degradation of health, education and other important properties of a significant part of the population - cannot “normally” (without social excesses) develop demographically. Demographic development occurs only when too large differences between the socio-economic position of communities decrease, the “social diversity” of individuals as subjects increases, which is summed up in positive demographic changes, primarily in the quality of population. The main evidence of the existence of actual, and not imaginary, demographic development is human development, strengthening of the physical and spiritual health of the "average person". Understood in this way, demographic development and human development are essentially identical.
In general, it can be argued that demographic development is a process of preserving the population measure as the achieved result of historical progress. When this measure is cardinally violated due to a decrease in the quality of the population, a demographic crisis sets in, during which demographic development is slowed down, a “demographic stagnation” sets in, which can eventually turn into a demographic catastrophe. A demographic catastrophe is manifested by the transformation of the country or its individual regions into areas of demographic disaster, which manifests itself, first of all, in the massive outflow of the population from them, in the partial or complete depopulation of territories. Signs of the formation of a demographic catastrophe in Ukraine are a very high level of labor migration abroad, depopulation of some settlements, especially rural settlements in the Donbass and numerous villages. A demographic catastrophe begins when a clearly pronounced negative influence of the migration component of its movement joins the decline in the quality of the population, that is, the "flight" of people from extremely unfavorable living conditions. Such a situation can be “initiated” both by the population itself (out of despair) and by the demographically illiterate leadership of the country (a vivid example from the past is the demolition of “unpromising” villages).
Any changes in its regime cannot be considered the development of self-reproduction of the population. A demographic catastrophe may not be accompanied by changes in population size - when the indigenous population is replaced by migratory inflows from poorer countries than the country of entry. But such a replacement does not stop the demographic catastrophe, but continues in a latent form, that is, in the regional aspect it is “fragmented,” which raises apologetic doubts about the existence of a demographic catastrophe in general. The similarity of the modes of self-reproduction in various social organisms does not indicate the identity of the achieved level of demographic development. The most general periodization of the development of self-reproduction of the population is the periodization of world history, developed on the basis of its explicit or implicit materialistic understanding. The progress of self-reproduction of the population is characterized by the improvement of its type. The content of the demological category "type of self-reproduction of the population" is not identical with the content of the demostatistical concept "the mode of renewal of the personal composition of the population" (its "reproduction"). The criterion for assessing the development of the type of self-reproduction of the population as progressive is the expansion and improvement of conditions for an ever more complete realization of the goal, which in a socially oriented society should be to create conditions for human development. This criterion is essential in relation to all other criteria of social progress (economic, cultural, ecological, etc.). The progress of self-reproduction of the population is the end product of the continuous resolution of the contradictions between the historically formed needs for the development of members of society and the available objective, primarily economic, opportunities to satisfy them. The progress of self-reproduction of the population is at the same time progress in human development. The instability of human development caused by the crisis state of society, various social and natural disasters, gives rise to instability and demographic development. The development of society, at first glance, is primary in relation to demographic development, but its type in modern conditions is decisive in relation to human development. Real, and not imaginary, development of population can occur only under conditions when people and their communities are the subjects of all social relations that are inherent in modern democracies.
The development of people usually occurs on the basis of meeting needs, primarily fundamental (education, decent work, adequate wages or profits for human development; health, housing, marital and family status, ensuring satisfaction of parenting needs; the need for creativity, satisfaction cultural requests, communication; in free time as a space for development, etc.). A person can be developed when he is able to ensure the satisfaction of all the mentioned (and not mentioned) needs, and the prevailing civilizational mood of society contributes to this. The set of human needs depends on the level of his development already reached. The more developed he is, the more diverse his needs are, and his highest need is the need for creativity (a person-creator).
If we proceed from this approach, the essential characteristic of development at the micro level, people can be divided into those: (a) who have not satisfied basic needs, which means that there are no elementary conditions for development, (b) who have satisfied basic needs and (c) who needs are satisfied at the highest reasonable level, and above all - the need for creativity. In a statistical context, human development could be determined by the proportion of those who have satisfied all reasonable needs, including the highest needs, that is, those who have favorable conditions for development. Thus, the qualitative aspect of demographic development can be reflected. Given the level and prevalence of poverty and marginalization, today the average person in Ukraine can be considered underdeveloped. And the task of the relevant branch of science is to characterize the "weak points" in human development, to determine the causes of the current situation and to develop effective measures to eliminate or mitigate them by both improving the operational foundations of the formation of human development and demopolitical measures.
So, the nature of demoality is determined by the nature of people's life in specific historical social conditions, and all social relations have a demographic aspect (perform a demographic function), they can be either demos-creating, or indifferent, or even destructive. Therefore, although the degree of human development is determined using statistical indicators, its nature depends primarily on the demographic efficiency of all social relations, that is, on the "demographicization" of all spheres of social life. If there were a clear orientation of modern socio-economic policy towards solving demographic problems, it would simultaneously contribute to human development, and, conversely, the development of society would become the content of moving forward in the formation of a more progressive type of self-reproduction of the population, in improving its quality. The process of demographicization of all types of socio-economic policy in Ukraine is hampered primarily because all levels of government are characterized by insufficient demographic literacy and demographic culture. This process is hampered mainly by the interpretation of the place of the demopolitical interests of the state as opposed to its other interests, while an effective demographic policy should not be a component of socio-economic policy, but its special focus, which consists in the demographic orientation of all its types.
Summarizing the above, we state the following:
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The article was first published in Ukrainian in the journal "Demography and Social Economy" (2013, No. 1 (19), pp. 5-16). Modified version.
Chief Researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after V.I. M.V. Ptukhi of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Economics, Professor of Demography.
This, in our opinion, can be considered as one of the manifestations gnostic crisis in demography, which is essentially characterized by the lag in the development of demotheoretical (demological) research from demo-empirical research.
The noun term “demographic” denotes everything that characterizes the subject of demography in its broad social sense, ie. demoality.
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The problem of human development in any country also has a global context. As noted in the analytical report Social Inclusion in Ukraine: European Choice and Social Sector Institutions, "the growing instability of the global financial system and the challenges of climate change are increasing the need for a broader concept of human development."
The demographic crisis often manifests itself in the unfavorable dynamics of indicators of the population renewal regime, primarily in an increase in mortality with a corresponding increase in depopulation. In economically developed countries, there is no question of a demographic crisis, since a decrease in the population (depopulation) is accompanied by an improvement in its quality, in particular, an increase in life expectancy.
As the eminent Italian philosopher and logician Evandro Agazzi notes, “it is precisely the fact that man is a subject that distinguishes him from all other natural objects; therefore, any program that ignores the existence of a person as a subject cannot be considered a program of his research as a person. "
"The development of society from the standpoint of this concept (the concept of human development - VS) does not mean a pile of material wealth, but a constant expansion of opportunities to meet the physical and spiritual needs of people."
As M. V. Ptukha noted, characterizing the future of demographic statistics, “A comprehensive statistical study of a person, from birth to death, will provide extremely rich materials and ideas in order to deeply know a person, to fight more successfully for his life, for health, for excellent physical and spiritual development ".