Demographic situation in developed countries. On the topic: The demographic situation in economically developed countries

essence demographic problem is the accelerated growth of the world's population. It can be traced by analyzing the time periods through which the population of the Earth reached every billion inhabitants.

Obviously, in the second half of the XX century. the time to reach each next billion has been drastically reduced, which characterizes the extremely rapid growth of the world's population.

The question arises: "What main reason such a rapid population growth? It lies in the peculiarities of the demographic situation in the countries of the world, and above all in developing ones. The low labor productivity observed in them in agriculture (it is main industry economy), communal ownership of land (the more people in the community, the larger its land allotment), as well as religious beliefs and traditions, entail an increase in the birth rate, and consequently, a large family.

Rice. 1. Periods of time through which the population of the Earth reached every billion inhabitants

However, if in the past high birth rates, so to speak, were "balanced" by high mortality (due to famine, diseases and epidemics) and population growth was moderate in the end, then after the Second World War the achievements of modern civilization that came to developing countries, led to exactly the opposite consequences and led to extremely rapid population growth due to high natural increase, which was called the "population explosion".

Rice. 2. Causes of the global demographic problem

The essence of the changes that have taken place is reflected in the diagram (Fig. 1). The scheme in fig. 2 and table. 1 allow us to conclude that the main reason " population explosion» - lack of effective birth control.

Table 1. Demographic indicators for different types of countries

However, demographic problems are more complex and multifaceted and have significant geographical differences. IN developing countries of the world, a type of reproduction is widespread, characterized by a relatively high birth rate, mortality and natural increase (type I), and in developed countries - the opposite type, manifested in lower levels of demographic processes (type II).

In other words, there are two problems: if developing countries are experiencing a “population explosion”, then a number of countries in the world are characterized by “ demographic crisis”, i.e., a decrease in the population due to the excess of mortality over births, which entails a natural decline in the population.

At the end of the XX century. the number of such countries has reached two dozen: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, the Baltic countries, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Germany, etc. The decline in the birth rate in these countries is mainly due to their socio-economic development.

Let us compare the demographic situation in each of the groups of countries for individual elements and identify various geographical aspects of demographic problems.

Table 2. Demographic situation in developed and developing countries

Conclusion: each country in the world has its own demographic problems of a different nature and degree of complexity, determined by differences in the levels of economic, social and cultural development, the religious composition of the population and the history of the state.

The consequences of demographic problems can be as follows:

extremely rapid growth of the world's population;
tall natural increase population in developing countries, far exceeding their ability to solve the problems of socio-economic development, thereby reinforcing their backwardness;
increasing inequality in the distribution of the world's population (9/10 of the world's population lives in developing countries).

Rice. 3. Consequences of demographic problems

Consequently, demographic problems entail the strengthening of other global problems, including food, geoecological and many others.

The Population Explosion: Statement of the Problem

The current stage of human development is characterized by accelerated population growth.

Ten thousand years ago there were about 10 million people on Earth, by the beginning of our era there were 200 million, by 1650 - 500 million, by the 19th century. - 1 billion. In 1900, the population was 1 billion 660 million. In 1950, despite losses in two world wars, the population increased to 2.5 billion, and then one hundred
la to increase annually by 70-100 million (Fig. 17). In 1993, 5.5 billion people live on Earth. On October 12, 1999, at 00:02, a boy was born in one of the Sarajevo maternity hospitals, who became the 6 billionth inhabitant of the planet. On February 26, 2006, the world's population reached another record high of 6.5 billion people, and their number is increasing by 2% per year.

Rice. 17. Global Population Growth

About 6.4 billion people now live on Earth, and the population is growing at 2% per year. It is expected that by 2050 there will be 8.9 billion earthlings.

The growth of the world's population in the middle of the XX century. acquired a rapid pace and was called the population explosion. Population explosion- a sharp increase in the rate of growth of the population of the Earth, associated with a change in the socio-economic or general environmental conditions of life.

At present, about 180 people are born on the planet every minute, 21 people are born every second and 19 people die. Thus, the population of the Earth is increasing by 2 people per second, by 250 thousand daily. For the year, the increase is approximately 80 million, and almost all of it is in developing countries. Nowadays doubling
The number of people on the planet occurs in 35 years, and the production of poverty is growing at 2.3% per year and doubling in 30 years.

It should be noted that the problem of population is not directly related to the number of inhabitants on our planet. The earth can feed more people. The problem lies in uneven distribution people on the surface of the planet.

There are human settlements in almost every corner of the Earth, although in some regions, such as Antarctica, there are no conditions for permanent residence. In other harsh areas live small groups of people leading a special way of life. Most of the world's population is concentrated in a relatively small area. In the early 1990s almost half of the 5.4 billion inhabitants of the planet occupied only 5% of its area. Conversely, only 5% of the population lived on half of the Earth's area. About 30% of the world's population is concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, including India, Indonesia and Pakistan, 25% - in East Asia, including China and Japan. Many people also live in the east of North America and in Europe.

Residents of predominantly agricultural countries are more evenly distributed. In India, where 73% of the population lives in countryside, its average density in 1990 was 270 people per 1 km 2. But even here there are significant fluctuations. For example, the population density in the middle part of the Gangetic Plain is three times higher than the national average.

Africa and South America have significantly lower average population densities across countries. The most densely populated country in Africa is Nigeria (130 people per 1 km 2). Among the South American countries, only in Ecuador this figure exceeds 30 people per 1 km2. Significant areas of the Earth are still almost uninhabited. In Australia, there are 2.2 people per 1 km 2, in Mongolia - only 1.4.

Despite the seemingly huge number of people on the planet - about 6 billion 400 million, hypothetically, all of them can be placed on an area of 6400 km 2, if 1 m 2 is allocated for each inhabitant. This area corresponds to the area of Lake Issyk-Kul (Republic of Kyrgyzstan) or three areas of Lake Geneva in Switzerland. The rest of the world would be free. For comparison, we note that the area of such a European dwarf state as Luxembourg is 2600 km 2, the area of the Spanish Canary Islands is 7200 km 2.

The ever-increasing world population requires more and more food and energy, mineral resources, which causes increasing pressure on the planet's biosphere.

An analysis of the current situation of the distribution of the population on the globe made it possible to identify some regularities.

Population growth is extremely uneven. It is highest in developing countries and lowest in developed countries Europe and America.
The rapid growth of the population violates its age ratio: the percentage of the disabled population - children, adolescents, the elderly - is increasing. The share of children under 15 years old in most developing countries reaches 50%, and people over 65 years old - ranges from 10 to 15%.
The population density is increasing. The accelerated process of urbanization is accompanied by the concentration of the population in major cities. In 1925, a little more than 1/5 of the world's population lived in cities, now about half. It is predicted that by 2025 2/3 of the world's inhabitants will be city dwellers.

North America and Europe are distinguished by a very large cluster of cities. The high standard of living of the urban population of these regions contrasts strongly with the conditions of life in Asia (excluding Japan), where rural people are predominantly engaged in arable farming and pastoralism. Smaller areas of population concentration are located in southeastern Australia, southeastern South America, the west coast of North America, and parts of the North American Midwest.

In these areas, the population density is also very uneven. In some small states it is extremely high. The area of Hong Kong, for example, is only 1045 km 2, and the population density is about 5600 people. per 1 km 2. Among the larger states, the highest density was registered in 1991 in Bangladesh (about 800 people per 1 km 2). As a rule, high population density is observed in industrialized countries. So, in the Netherlands in 1990 it was 440 people. per 1 km 2, in Japan - 330 people. per 1 km 2.

Global population growth

The population of the Earth is systematically increasing and the rate of its growth is increasing over the years. For example, the doubling of the population (in million people) from 20 to 40 occurred in 2000 years. From 80 to 180 in 1000 years, from 600 to 1200 in 150 years, and from 2500 to 5000 in just 40 years. Between 1965 and 1970, the growth rate of the world's population reached an unprecedented peak in history - 2.1% per year.

By 1990, the total population of the planet reached 5, 2005 - 6, in 2010 - more than 6.5 billion people. According to forecasts, by 2025 about 10 billion people will live on Earth. More than half of the world's population lives in Asia - about 58, in Europe - over 17, in Africa - over 10, in North America - about 9, South America - about 6, in Australia and Oceania - 0.5%.

Numerous attempts to reduce the birth rate have been unsuccessful. There is currently a population explosion in Africa, Asia and South America. An excessively rapid increase in population requires a solution to the global problem of reducing the growth rate of the Earth's population, as people need a place to settle, to produce material goods and food.

In Russia, in the last decade, the population has decreased annually and only stabilized by 2011 (mortality is approximately equal to the birth rate), but in this decade it will decrease again due to demographic features.

Lack of food. Despite the explosive nature of the world's population, human food resources are declining. Thus, the world production of grain, meat and fish and a number of other products per capita has been continuously declining since 1985. The forecasts came true and in 2010 the prices for wheat and rice almost doubled. In the poorest countries, this leads to mass starvation. Currently (according to official figures), one out of every five people on the planet is starving or malnourished.

By 2030, the world's population could increase by 3.7 billion people, which would require food production to double and industrial output and energy production to triple.

Energy costs per unit of agricultural production (fertilizers, water, electricity, fuel for agricultural units, etc.) have increased by almost 15 times over the past two decades, while productivity has increased by an average of only 35-40%. The growth rate of grain crop yields has slowed down even since 1990. According to experts, the efficiency of fertilizer use in the world is close to the limit.

In addition, the total area occupied by grain crops has stabilized at the level of the mid-1980s. In recent years, fish stocks have declined sharply. Thus, from 1950 to 1989, the world catch increased from 19 to 89 million tons, but later and until now (2010) no significant increase has been observed. An increase in the size of the fishing fleet does not lead to an increase in the catch.

Thus, at the beginning of the XXI century. Humanity is facing increasing degradation of ecosystems, exacerbating poverty and widening disparities between industrialized and developing nations.

population problem

The dynamics of the population of any country depends on such basic demographic indicators as fertility, mortality and migration.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union (1990s), there has been a significant drop in population in the CIS countries compared to the previous decade (Turkmenistan is an exception). The total population of the CIS countries at the beginning of 2001 was 280.7 million people, which is 1.6 million or 0.6% less than at the beginning of 1991.

Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, where 73% of all residents of the CIS live, have been growing since the early 1990s. entered a period of depopulation, the pace of which is accelerating. Depopulation coefficient (the ratio of the number of deaths to the number of births) in 1992-1993. amounted to 1.1 in Belarus, 1.14 in Russia, 1.18 in Ukraine, and in 2000 it rose to 1.44, 1.77 and 1.96, respectively, or by 31-66%.

By the beginning of 2001, the population of Belarus had fallen to 9.99 million people. against 10.4 million at the beginning of 1994 (the year of maximum numbers), or by 4.1%; Russia - up to 144.8 million people. against 148.7 million at the beginning of 1992, i.e. by 3.9 million, or 2.6%; Ukraine - up to 49 million against 52.2 million at the beginning of 1993, i.e. the decrease was 3.2 million, or 6.1% (Table 3). In total, the losses of the population of these three states during the years of reforms reached 7.5 million people, which exceeds the number of inhabitants of such states as Denmark, Slovakia, Georgia, Israel, and Tajikistan.

Most significantly - 2 million people. (11.3%) the population of Kazakhstan decreased: from 16.8 million at the beginning of 1991 to 14.8 million at the beginning of 2001. The negative result is due, along with a decrease in the birth rate, to a large and stable scale of population migration from Kazakhstan to other CIS countries (mainly Russian-speaking citizens to Russia and Germans to Germany).

Table 3. Permanent population of the CIS countries

	At the beginning of the year (thousand people)	Including
		1996 in % to 1991	2001 in % to 1996
Belarus


Moldova
Azerbaijan


Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

In the rest of the states of Central Asia, in Azerbaijan and Armenia, the demographic potential in the 1990s. continued to grow. The population of Turkmenistan increased most significantly - by 30.4%, Uzbekistan - by 20.2%, Tajikistan - by 15.7%. However, in the last five years (1996-2000) in these countries, there has been a decrease in population growth rates, which is due to a reduction in their natural increase. Only in Kyrgyzstan population growth in the second half of the 90s. 20th century increased and amounted to 6.1% against 4.6% in 1991-1995, which is associated with a sharp decrease in recent years of population migration outside the republic.

According to the age structure, the CIS countries are divided into three groups (Table 4). The first is Belarus, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine, where the oldest population, i.e. the proportion of people aged 65 years and older is the largest - 12.5-13.8%, and the proportion of children does not exceed 20.4%. Reduced average life expectancy. If in the 70s. 20th century in the USSR it was 73 years, now men live about 59 years, women - 72 years, i.e. average life expectancy is 65 years. In the US, life expectancy increased by 5 years to 78 years; in Japan, this figure is 79 years.

The second group included the states of Central Asia and Azerbaijan, which have the youngest age structure: the proportion of children in them ranges from 32% in Azerbaijan to 42% in Tajikistan, and older people - from 3.9 to 5.5%. The third group of countries - Armenia, Kazakhstan and Moldova - occupy an intermediate position: children in them are 24-29%, the elderly - 7-9%.

Table 4. Age structure of the population of the CIS countries

	Population at the beginning of 2001, million people	Share of the age group, %		Per 1000 population aged 15-64, pers.
	Population at the beginning of 2001, million people		65 years and older		65 years and older
Belarus




Kazakhstan**
Moldova
Azerbaijan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan***
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

* Population at the beginning of 2000

** Age adjusted based on preliminary results of the 1999 population census *** 1998

All CIS countries are characterized by a further increase in the number of older people and a decrease in the proportion of children. At the beginning of 2000, the proportion of the population over 65 in Belarus was 13.3% against 11% in 1991, in Russia - 12.5% (10%), Ukraine - 13.8% (12%). As a result, the demographic burden of people over 65 on the working-age population (aged 15 to 65) has increased in these countries compared to the early 1990s. 20th century by 20-30%, and the demographic burden of children decreased by 10-15%.

Economically developed countries

The economically developed countries of the world have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth (see Table 1). Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this respect between them. Recently, however, this group of countries has also become quite differentiated, and now this group can also be divided into three subgroups.

Table 1. European countries with negative natural population growth

The first subgroup includes countries where a rather favorable demographic situation is still preserved, which is characterized by at least average birth rates and natural growth, ensuring an expanded reproduction of the population. The United States can serve as an example of a country of this kind, where the reproduction formula (birth rate - death rate = natural increase) at the end of the 90s remained at the level of 15‰ - 9‰ = 6‰. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 0.6%. This subgroup includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3-0.5%. With such a growth rate, the doubling of the population in these countries can be expected in 100-200 years, or even more (in Switzerland, in 250 years).

The second subgroup should include countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, where the total fertility rate fell to 1.5 in the mid-1990s. Some of these countries (for example, Poland) still have a minimal excess of births over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with zero population growth. These are Austria, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, Ireland.

Finally, the third subgroup includes countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation). The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with "minus" population growth only in 1990-2000. increased from 3 to 15. All of them are in Europe.

It will not be a mistake to assert that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, they include a rapid, and sometimes downright landslide decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. Demographers call this phenomenon aging from below. Next, increase medium duration of people's lives in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of older (“non-reproducing”) people in the population, that is, as they say, to aging from above.

However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its occurrence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical-social, moral factors that caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average size families in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2--3 people. Yes, and it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without marriage, a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.

If in the early 1960s the number of divorces per 1,000 marriages in countries foreign Europe ranged from 100 to 200, then in the late 90s it increased to 200-300. Even more egregious data are on illegitimate children, the proportion of which increased by 5-10 times over the same time. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark - 40%. But the "absolute champions" in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with a figure of over 50%.

All these reasons and factors in the countries listed in table 2 are combined in different ways. So, in Germany and Italy, apparently, the influence of demographic factors really prevails. In the post-socialist countries of the Central of Eastern Europe(Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) was affected by the fact that in the 90s they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and the transition from command-planning to market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in the CIS member countries (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.

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Plan

Introduction

1. The demographic situation in developed countries, the policy pursued by the state

2. Practical task

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

This paper proposes for consideration the issue of the demographic situation prevailing in developed countries, as well as the policies pursued by states.

As a practical task, a comparative description of two economic regions of Russia - Central Russia and North-Western Russia is proposed according to the following criteria:

Territory size;

Natural resources;

Population;

economy;

Agro-industrial complex;

Transport.

1. Demographicsituationindevelopedcountries,ongoingstatepolitics

The most dangerous demographic threat to the demographic situation in the world is a sharp decline in the population in developed countries. This global negative trend will be of the most significant importance for the world community. An impending demographic crisis, caused by a fairly rapid aging of the population without compensation by newborns, is predicted for the following countries:

EU countries;

China (it is necessary to make a reservation that this threat will reach a significant indicator only at the turn of 2030-2035, and then only if the current actions of the Chinese leadership in the framework of the policy to stimulate the birth rate do not give any significant effect);

Figure 2.1 - Negative trends in the future world population (million people)

Figure 2.2 - World population (billion people)

It becomes obvious that the possession of the key and most valuable resource for the development of the world community - a large population of working age - will be the monopoly of developing countries. Even the low quality, in terms of the “professional qualification” criterion (despite the fact that this negative can be quickly eliminated), of this resource in the low-income country group does not devalue its significance and value.

The most important thing is that the owners of the resource will not be able to raise the income level of the specified population and provide normal functioning conditions within their national borders. Thus, social dissatisfaction will provoke the “exit” of this human wave. The scenario of the cessation of world population growth will not change the status of developing countries as "monopolists of human capital".

The downward trend in the number of children in the family has affected almost all industrialized countries.

Figure 2.3 - Number of children in a family (per woman)

Figure 2.4 - Projected annual population change (until 2020), %

Over the last quarter of the 20th century, the United Nations Secretariat has repeatedly polled the governments of all the world's UN member states about their attitudes towards the demographic situation in their countries: how governments assess the conformity of various demographic processes with the interests of their countries and whether they consider it necessary to pursue policies aimed at preserving or changing the status quo.

Judgments about the main trends in changing positions of governments are made on the basis of an analysis of the responses to UN questionnaires, carried out by an employee of the UN Population Division, Anatoly ZUBANOV, and presented at an expert meeting organized by this Division on the topic "Policy Response to Population Aging and Decline" (New York, 16- October 18, 2000).

Particular attention in this analysis was given to countries with low fertility. Even in these countries, the same or, in any case, similar processes are often assessed differently by both public opinion and state institutions. And depending on these assessments, different attitudes of governments to the demographic realities in their countries are formed, their views on whether or not it is necessary to pursue a special policy aimed at changing or maintaining the situation in the demographic area, on possible and acceptable measures of such a policy.

As you know, there are countries in the world where the population is growing very quickly, and countries where, on the contrary, it is growing slowly, or even decreasing altogether. Governments in both groups of countries experience dissatisfaction. In all the years in which their relationship to population growth rates was ascertained, less than half of the responding governments considered their country's population growth situation to be satisfactory (see table 2.1).

Table 2.1 - Opinions of governments on population growth rates (1974-1999), as a percentage of the total number of responding countries

	Too muchhigh	Satisfactory	Too muchlow	Total	Numbercountries
Peaceinin general




Moredevelopedcountry



Lessdevelopedcountry

The share of governments dissatisfied with population growth rates is especially high in the less developed regions of the world. Here governments are mainly concerned about high population growth rates. As for the more developed countries, they are concerned, on the contrary, with too low growth rates, but this concern was expressed in 1999 by only 35% of the governments that responded to UN questions, and in 1993 there were only 12.5% of them, while the proportion of those who are satisfied remains quite high all the time.

A sharp change in views on population dynamics between 1993 and 1999 in the developed regions was provided primarily by the countries of Eastern Europe and the former USSR. At present, all the countries of Eastern Europe (except the Czech Republic) and two-thirds of the countries that were recently republics of the USSR consider their population growth rates to be too low. The rates in these countries are indeed among the lowest, in most cases there is a population decline. Of the rest of Europe, only Greece, Portugal and Austria rate their population growth as too low. If we talk about the eight major industrial countries ah, in 1999, only the Russian government considered the growth rate of its population to be unsatisfactory (see table 2.2).

Table 2.2 - Estimate of the growth rate of their population by the governments of 8 developed countries (1974 - 1999)

The country
	Too low	Too low	Satisfactory	Too low
	Too low	Too low	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
Germany	Satisfactory	Too low	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
South Korea	Too high	Too high	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
Great Britain	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory

High or low population growth rates are primarily due to the birth rate. It is not surprising that governments, dissatisfied with the rate of population growth, are also concerned about the birth rate in their countries. But often these concerns are expressed by those countries that are satisfied with the growth rate. In the world as a whole, the percentage of governments that consider their own birth rate too low rose from 11% in 1976 to 17% in 1999.

On the example of 8 large countries with low fertility, which also tends to further decline everywhere, it can be seen that government estimates tend to become more and more alarming. If in 1976 only France and Germany rated their birth rate as too low, Russia, the UK, Italy, the US and Japan were satisfied with its level, and South Korea even considered its birth rate too high, then in 1999 already five out of eight countries rated their birth rate as too low (see table 2.3).

Table 2.3 - Estimation of the birth rate in their countries by the governments of 8 developed countries (1976-1999)

The country
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Too low	Too low
	Too low	Too low	Too low	Too low
Germany	Too low	Too low	Too low	Too low
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Too low
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Too low	Too low
South Korea	Too high	Too high	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
Great Britain	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory
	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory	Satisfactory

If a country expresses dissatisfaction with its level of fertility, but it is not disturbed by low rates of population growth, then it can be assumed that in this country there is a source of replenishment of the population, other than fertility. This source can only be immigration.

Immigration indeed became a noticeable phenomenon in the last decades of the twentieth century in many countries and helped to maintain population growth rates higher than their established birth rates allowed. But at the same time, concerns about the volume of immigration have been growing all the time in developed countries. In 1976, 17% of the governments of developed countries assessed the level of immigration as very high, in 1999 - already 27%. Within the group of countries with low fertility, 30% (17 countries, including Russia) thought in 1999 that the level of immigration was too high and only 2 countries (Moldova and Ukraine) rated it as too low, the rest recognized this level as satisfactory.

In the world as a whole, there has been an increase in the number of countries in which governments consider it necessary to influence the rate of population growth. But most of this increase has come at the expense of developing countries, where governments are increasingly speaking out in favor of slowing down demographic growth. At the same time, both the number of countries that responded to the UN questionnaire and the share of those countries in which governments considered it necessary to implement a policy of slowing population growth increased (see table 2.4).

Table 2.4 - Policies that governments consider necessary to pursue in their countries with regard to population growth rates (1974-1999), as a percentage of the total number of responding countries

	reduce	Supporton thegivenlevel	Boost	Notinterfere	Total	Numbercountries

Peaceinin general




Moredevelopedcountry




Lessdevelopedcountry

In developed countries with low population growth rates, the situation is somewhat different. Here the number of supporters of non-interference was clearly growing. True, in the 1990s there was a slight increase in the number of countries from more developed regions (from 16% in 1993 to 23% in 1999) that spoke in favor of a policy aimed at increasing population growth rates. Russia and most other countries of Eastern Europe, Slovenia, Croatia, as well as Armenia and Kazakhstan, have proclaimed a policy aimed at changing the existing demographic situation, preventing population decline.

At the same time, the proportion of states declaring the need to increase population growth rates is smaller than the proportion of states that consider these rates to be too low. Some Western countries in the 1990s, in contrast to the former socialist countries of Europe, switched from a policy of stimulating population growth to a policy of laissez-faire. The example of France, which has long been known for the active position of the state in relation to demographic processes, is typical. Filling out UN questionnaires in 1976, 1983 and 1993, her government replied that it was pursuing a policy of increasing population growth and fertility, and in 1999 announced a position of non-intervention in the situation.

Among the 8 large industrial countries, only Russia now declares, as it did in the 1970s and 1980s (but not in the first half of the 1990s), a policy aimed at increasing population growth rates (see Table 2.5 ).

Table 2.5 - Policies regarding the rate of population growth, which are considered necessary by the governments of 8 developed countries (1974-1999)

The country
	Boost	Boost	Keep out	Boost
	Boost	Boost	Boost	Keep out
Germany	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep existing	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
South Korea	Downgrade	Downgrade	Downgrade	Keep out
Great Britain	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out

The position of non-intervention extends to the policy of developed countries regarding fertility, and may be dictated precisely by the refusal of most governments to try to increase the birth rate. In this, the situation in developed countries is very different from the situation in the third world, where the main cause of concern is high birth rates.

Against the backdrop of growing concerns about low birth rates, it seems almost paradoxical that the number of governments supporting policies aimed at increasing the birth rate has not only not increased, but even decreased. This can be seen, in particular, in the example of large industrial countries. In 1976, the Russian government announced the need to pursue a policy aimed at maintaining the existing birth rate, the French government hoped to use policy measures to increase it, and the South Korean government - to lower it. By 1999, the number of governments that did not consider it necessary to pursue a policy aimed at changing the birth rate increased from 5 to 7, and only the Russian government declared support for a policy in favor of increasing the birth rate (see Table 2.6).

Table 2.6 - Fertility policy considered necessary by the governments of 8 developed countries (1974-1999)

The country
	Keep existing	Boost	Keep out	Boost
	Boost	Boost	Boost	Keep out
Germany	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
South Korea			Keep existing	Keep out
Great Britain	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out
	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out	Keep out

The declared "non-intervention" of the majority of Western states in fertility issues, the rejection of the policy of influencing growth rates or the age structure of the population does not mean the state's complete self-exclusion from the region. population policy. Only the refusal to pursue certain quantitative goals is emphasized (which, perhaps, is due to the ineffectiveness of all previous attempts to achieve such goals).

"Government UK not holds politics in areas population in sense active attempts influence on the number population, his age structure or Components her changes, behind exception immigration... It also not expresses opinions which number And structure population desirable for UK. Main his care - this welfare population, although government And keeps track trends demographic development- Solutions about birth children people accept themselves, but a task governments - provide them information And means, to solutions were efficient. IN in particular government provides services on planning families- Government takes into account questions population at development economic And social politicians".

Position governments UK , submitted on the Cairo conferences on population And development 1994 of the year

For countries with low fertility, immigration is an important source of population replenishment. However, they all remain wary of immigration. Countries that accepted foreigners for permanent residence are becoming increasingly selective in relation to immigrants, introducing certain restrictions.

The Commission of the European Union in its 1994 document noted the need to limit the admission of foreigners, justifying this with the economic situation and the situation on the labor market.

In 1999, out of 57 countries with below-replacement fertility rates, only 3 countries (Russia, Moldova, and Singapore) reported having policies to encourage immigration, 46% (26 countries, including most of Eastern and Northern Europe, the United States and Canada) policy of maintaining the existing level of immigration, 32% (18 countries, including Belarus, Slovenia, Greece, France, Germany, etc.) pursue a policy of reducing immigration and 18% (10 countries, in particular, Georgia, Croatia, the Netherlands) do not interfere in this process.

The example of 8 large industrial countries shows that, as a rule, they prefer not to expand legal immigration, which is now quite strictly controlled, and to counteract illegal immigration.

At the same time, in 1999, no country, with the exception of Germany, set the goal of reducing the number of migrants of all types (see table 2.7).

Table 2.7 - Immigration policies considered necessary by the governments of 8 developed countries in 1999

The country	Politicsonrelationto:

immigrationon thepermanentresidence
	Boost

Germany
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Entrypersonsfromresolutionon theficklework
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Germany
	Boost
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Entrydependentspersons,havingpermissionon thework
	Keep out
	Keep existing
Germany
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Entryrefugees

	Keep existing
Germany
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Entryforcedsettlers
	Stop
	Keep existing
Germany
	Keep existing
	Keep existing
South Korea	Keep existing
Great Britain	Keep existing
	Keep existing
Entryunregisteredorillegalmigrants
	Stop
	Stop
Germany	Stop
	Stop
	Stop
South Korea	Stop
Great Britain	Stop
	Stop
Integrationscitizensothersnationalities


Germany

	Keep out
South Korea	Keep out
Great Britain

Government statements about migration policy should not be taken too literally. Migration is a subject of intense political debate, and governments formulating their position on immigration always have to look at public opinion. But at the same time, they cannot ignore economic and demographic realities.

The importance of immigration is increasingly recognized in connection with the aging of the population and the need to look for sources of compensation for declining labor resources. Since there is opposition to immigration in many countries, governments, responding to public sentiment, are trying to find solutions to emerging problems, focusing on domestic resources, in particular, increasing labor productivity, flexible working hours, raising the retirement age, encouraging women to become more involved in production.

However, they cannot refuse the migration resource either and are trying to find palliative solutions by expanding selective or temporary immigration.

2. Practicalthe task

population birth rate demographic

Conduct a comparison of the economic regions of Russia (Central Russia and North-Western Russia).

Table 2.1

	economic region
	central Russia	Northwestern Russia

Territory size	483 thousand km 2	212 thousand km 2 (the smallest region of Russia in terms of territory.
Natural resources	Brown coal, peat, building materials and phosphates, salt. In the north - forest and water resources. Iron ore resources of the Kursk magnetic anomaly. Land resources are large, thanks to the temperate continental climate with sufficient moisture, with proper land reclamation and agricultural technology, they allow you to get good harvests of cereals, flax, potatoes, sugar beets (in the south).	Bauxites, phosphorites, refractory clays, limestones, shales, peat, biological and forest resources.
Population	Dramatically dominated urban population, in rural areas there is a sharp shortage of labor resources. About 1040 urban settlements (including 364 cities). The most important place among cities is occupied by cities - "millionaires":	The population of the district is 9.2 million people (6.2% of the population of Russia). The basis of the population are the townspeople. National composition heterogeneous: most of the population is Russian, Komi predominate among other nations,
	Moscow (8.8 million people), Nizhny Novgorod (1.4 million people), around which urban agglomerations are formed. There are small villages in the northern part of the region, large villages in the southern part.	Karelians, Saami, Nenets.
economy	Specializes in knowledge-intensive skilled mechanical engineering and (to a lesser extent) in industries that process Natural resources in construction materials (chemical, metallurgical and timber industries), the historically established light (textile) industry. A special place is occupied by science and scientific and technical services, management, higher education, culture and art, tourist and excursion activities (recently). The machine-building complex is distinguished by the presence of production and research and production associations based on the largest machine-building plants, as well as a close relationship with scientific,	Specializes in multi-industry engineering. It produced 2/3 of the turbines and generators in Russia and a significant share of equipment for nuclear power plants. Construction of sea vessels, production of optical and electronic equipment (defense complex, currently undergoing conversion). Non-ferrous metallurgy and conversion plants of ferrous metallurgy are closely connected with mechanical engineering. Chemical, textile, woodworking, fish and porcelain-faience industries, production of footwear and fur products. A diversified economy corresponds to a diversified science - there are 400 research institutes,
	design and design institutes and organizations. The chemical industry stands out, producing rubber and tires, plastics, and fertilizers. The fuel and energy complex mainly uses fuel and energy from other regions. The electric power industry includes thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, and nuclear power plants.	engaged in work in the field of technology, energy, defense, geology, problems of the Arctic and Antarctic, nature conservation, culture and art.
Agro-industrial complex	1. Southern part of the region. Chernozem soils, which produce 10% of grain and potatoes, 20% of sunflower, half of sugar beets and 8-9% of livestock products (meat, milk, eggs). On the basis of agriculture, a powerful food industry(flour mill, oil mill, sugar beet, tobacco, meat). 2. Interfluve of the Oka and Volga. Agriculture is mostly suburban. There is a powerful food industry. 3. North and west of the region. Flax and dairy farming.	Specializes in meat and dairy cattle breeding and flax growing. In suburban areas - in the production of vegetables, potatoes, poultry. Oats, barley, spring wheat, winter rye are grown (the main grain crop of the region). The region lacks its own agricultural products.
Transport	The railway and automobile networks departing from Moscow are of a radial nature, which ensures the efficiency of intra-regional communications for the transport of goods and passengers. The direction Moscow - St. Petersburg is equipped with a high-speed railway. The main water transportation is carried out through the Volga-Baltic system and the canal. Moscow (western part of the region). The airline system from Moscow airports is the largest in the country.	The leading mode of transport is rail. In terms of the density of the railway network, the district is one of the first places in the country. From St. Petersburg originate 12 directions of roads to Moscow, the Urals (via Cherepovets-Vologda), Belarus and Ukraine (via Vitebsk-Orsha-Kharkov). Railways connect the North-West with the North (St. Petersburg-Petrozavodsk-Murmansk and through Vologda and Kotlas with Syktyvkar and Vorkuta), the Baltic States (St. Petersburg-Tallinn, St. Petersburg-Pskov-Riga, St. Petersburg-Pskov-Vilnius and further - to Kaliningrad). All these roads are of particular importance because they connect almost all of Russia with the Baltic. This is also where the “introduction” of the Mariinsky water system into the Baltic takes place, providing a direct connection between the northern seas of Russia and its southern seas. In the plans to create a regional intersectoral transport system, great importance
		is allocated to the construction of a ring highway around St. Petersburg (this will free the city from a significant part of the freight transport), the reconstruction of Pulkovo airport and the construction of a new modern airport. Finally, the construction of pipelines (primarily from the Kirishi refinery) should take on a significant scale.

Conclusion

In this paper, the issue of the demographic situation in developed countries is considered, the official opinion of governments is given. different countries on the subject, the change in that opinion over time, and the policies that governments deem appropriate to deal with the demographic issue.

As part of the practical task, a comparison was made of the economic regions of Russia - Central Russia and North-Western Russia according to the proposed criteria.

Listusedliterature

1. Simonenko,N.N. Economical geography: Proc. Allowance / N.N. Simonenko, V.N. Simonenko, I.S. Merkusheva, N.N. Onuchin. - 3rd ed. revised and additional - Komsomolsk-on-Amur: GOUVPO "Komsomolsk-on-Amur state. tech. un-t”, 2010. - 105 p.

2. United Nations website URL: http://www.un.org (Accessed: 03/01/2011).

3. Resource of the analytical center of the Investment Programs Foundation URL: http://collaps2031.org (date of access: 24.02.2011).

4. The demographic situation in developed countries through the eyes of their governments. Article on the POLIT.RU portal dated 13.06.2001 URL: http://www.polit.ru/country/2001/06/13/464284.html (accessed 01.03.2011).

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The problem of population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America

Demographic problems in the world became especially relevant in the second half of the 20th century. At this time, significant changes took place in the social sphere of society:

First, medicine has advanced widely, thanks to the use of new drugs and new medical equipment. As a result, it was possible to cope with epidemics of diseases that previously destroyed hundreds of thousands of people, and reduce mortality from some other dangerous diseases.
Secondly, since the middle of the 20th century, humanity has not waged global wars that could massively reduce the population.

As a result, mortality rates worldwide have dropped dramatically. The world population at the beginning of the 21st century reached 7 billion people. Of these, about 6 billion live in Third World countries - Asia, Africa and Latin America. It was in these countries that a process that is commonly called a population explosion took place.

The main causes of the population explosion in Third World countries:

Still high birth rates, along with low mortality.
The important role of traditional religious and national values that prohibit abortions and the use of contraceptives.
In some countries of Central Africa, the influence of the rudiments of pagan culture. And as a result - a low level of morality and promiscuity.

In the 1950s and 60s, the consequences of the population explosion inspired optimistic hopes among the population. However, later it became obvious that a sharp increase in the birth rate leads to a number of problems:

The problem of the working population. In a number of countries, the number of children under 16 is equal to, and in some even exceeds, the number of adults.
The problem of lack of territories that satisfy necessary conditions for the life and development of citizens.
The problem of food shortage.
The problem of shortage of raw materials.

Thus, the demographic problem is closely related to a number of other global problems.

At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, in a number of Third World countries, state level began to pursue a policy that stimulates the decline in the birth rate of the population. This concerns, first of all, China and India, where the mottos from the series: “One family - one child” have become widespread. Families with one or two children began to receive benefits from the government. This gave certain results, and the birth rate was somewhat reduced. But population growth in these countries is still very high.

Features of the demographic situation in developed countries

Demographic problems in the world have greatly affected the developed countries of the West. These countries have seen a clear trend towards aging and shrinking populations over the past fifty years.

That is, on the one hand, the number of older people and life expectancy are increasing. Reasons: improving the level of medical and social services for citizens.

On the other hand, the birth rate is sharply declining, which means that the percentage of the young population is declining.

The developed countries of the world in terms of the demographic situation can be divided into several groups:

Countries where there is population growth due to their own birth rate. That is, the birth rate in the country exceeds the death rate. These are Slovakia, Ireland, France, England.
Countries that still maintain population growth due to births, but growth due to migration is higher: Spain, Holland, Finland, Cyprus, USA, Canada, Italy, Greece, Germany.
States where the population is declining due to the excess of deaths over births and due to the emigration of their population to other countries: Bulgaria, the Baltic countries, Poland.

What are the reasons for the decline in the birth rate in the West? This is, first of all:

The consequences of the sexual revolution of the 1960s and 70s, when various methods of contraception were widely used.
Interest in career growth in the service field, which usually significantly increases the time threshold for marriage and the appearance of children in Western countries.
The crisis of the family in modern society: an increase in the percentage of divorces and unregistered cohabitation.
Increasing the number of same-sex marriages.
Modern Western culture of "comfort" itself. It does not encourage parents to spend additional efforts on the upbringing and material support of several children.

Further continuation of the process of reducing the birth rate in Western countries threatens them with the extinction of their own population and its replacement by people from Asia and Africa. The beginning of this process can be seen in Europe right now, analyzing the latest developments with immigrants from the Third World.

The current demographic situation in Russia

Demographic problems in the world have also affected Russia. Our country can be classified as European countries the second group. That is, we have a small increase in population, but it is carried out with the help of not only the birth rate, but also immigration from the CIS countries. In 2016, the death rate in Russia exceeds the birth rate by about 70 thousand per year. Migrates to the country, for the same time period about 200 thousand.

Causes of the demographic problem in Russia:

Consequences of the economic and social decline of the 1990s. Low level life, with which many families justify not wanting to have children. However, it should be taken into account that the high standard of living in the countries of Western Europe, in practice, leads, on the contrary, to a decrease in the birth rate in this region.
The absence in society, as a result of many years of communist rule, of firm religious foundations, as in a number of Catholic and Muslim countries abroad.
Wrong policy of the state, as a result of which families with many children received minimal benefits in the country for many years.
Lack of propaganda at the state level against abortion. Russia in terms of the number of abortions is one of the first places in the world, along with Vietnam, Cuba and Ukraine.

Government policy aimed in recent years at providing financial support to families who decide to have a second and third child has yielded results.

The improvement of medical care also played a certain role. The birth rate in the country has increased significantly, while the death rate has slightly decreased.

However, it is necessary to create in Russia long-term and large-scale programs aimed at stimulating the birth rate, supporting large families, single mothers, to reduce the number of abortions. State activities aimed at raising the moral level of the population can also play a large role.

In the 70-90s, a demographic crisis emerged that affected economically developed countries and countries with economies in transition. This crisis consists in a sharp decrease in population growth rates in both groups of countries and even in natural decline (in Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Germany, Sweden), as well as in demographic aging, reduction or stabilization of labor resources.

Demographic aging (when the proportion of the population over 60 is more than 2% of its total population) is a natural, historically determined process that has irreversible consequences. At the same time, this process poses serious socio-economic problems for the society - first of all, an increase in the economic burden on the employed population.

Due to the fact that the noted countries (including Russia) are at the stage of demographic development, common to all industrialized countries, large natural population growth in present stage impossible.

In Russia, a decrease in mortality and an increase in the birth rate, to the extent that they are realistically possible in our country under the most favorable development of events, can somewhat reduce the natural decline compared to the situation in the 1990s. (but ns overcome it). The only source of population growth, or at least maintaining its non-decreasing numbers, can only be immigration. As for demographic aging, it is expected that in Russia in 2000-2015. a “demographic favorable window” will open. During this period, the share of the population of retirement age will practically not change, and at the same time the share of the population of working age will grow significantly. This period must be used to reduce the mortality of the population, especially of younger and middle ages (this will somewhat slow down the old age), as well as to reform the social protection system and significantly increase the efficiency of the economy.