With intrigues and behind-the-scenes secrets, when much in the financial sector remains behind the scenes, when only the result is issued, and what led to this result remains sealed. And with the increasing role of dishonest methods in financial affairs. These trends will be seen in financial policy in the world, in companies, and in the conduct of material affairs ordinary person. If in the previous year it was possible to talk about the golden mean in everything related to finance, then in 2018 - about extremes, when one will throw into another. “Too much” is the key word that will make it clear that there will be both “too much” gains and “too much” losses.
What areas will be the most profitable? Oil- this is beyond doubt. good income will also bring the extraction of coal, other natural resources: gas (including shale), iron ore, copper ore, salt, phosphates. Nuclear power enters a new phase of development. Volcanology and seismology can advance in the study of unpredictable natural phenomena. Psychotherapy will be in great demand, we will find out new names of such specialists. AND surgery, including the military.
The foundations for big profits are best laid in January and February 2018. Much depends on personal initiative, and this is what needs to be shown at this time - both for corporations and for individuals who want to get rich. Well, if you don’t want to, live calmly at this time, just as calmly meet the end of this year. No big gains, but no frills either.
During the lunar eclipse on January 31, 2018 beware of laying down a long cycle of unnecessary spending, provoked not by necessity, but by the desire to become noticeable, to show off. Your ambitions, if you indulge them at this time, will require more and more investments, which in fact will be meaningless.
There will be a solar eclipse on February 15, 2018- and the frugality shown at that time, even austerity, will also become a habit for a long time and will unexpectedly give freedom in finances.
It is better to lay down all important undertakings in the material sphere before March 9, 2018, and then by July 10, 2018, these undertakings must be developed, deepened and expanded, and new people should be attracted to them - investors, for example, or those who have good connections, or those whose intellectual potential can be used. In the specified time interval, it is possible and necessary to complete unprofitable projects.
From the second decade of July you can count on the return from those undertakings that were laid in the winter of 2018 or even in the fall of 2017.
Near July 27th- the dates when the lunar eclipse will occur - avoid solving material issues under the influence of emotions and impulsively, do not mess with dubious personalities. And in the first half of August (in the aura of a solar eclipse that will happen on the 11th), do not let yourself be drawn into any material obligations: it will be very difficult to get out of such a relationship, and it will take a very long time.
A must in 2018 when conducting business related to finance, it is necessary to take into account the periods of retrograde Mercury: from March 23 to April 15; from July 26 to August 19; from 17 November to 7 December. And also the time interval from October 5 to November 16, when Venus will move backward. During these periods, you should not conclude deals, buy something. It's better to sell what you don't need.
Choose your zodiac sign
Aries
At the beginning of the year, you will have large receipts of money, not least due to the fact that you will spend a lot of time and effort on gaining material wealth. Also at this time you will have a good return on the affairs that you are doing in partnership, in commonwealth with someone. Financial problems will have to be solved in March. If there are debts, then you will have a good opportunity to pay them off from March 23 to April 14. Don't delay this process. Perhaps someone will return the money to you.
From the second half of June to the second decade of July, money will be given to you more easily than usual. There will be an opportunity to receive income from the fruits of their creativity. Be careful in material and financial matters at the end of July - the first half of August. From July 26 to August 19, there may be an opportunity to re-examine a project you have been involved in before and realize that it is still promising. From October 5 until the end of the year, you will be very interested in the process of making big money. In November-December, profitable cooperation with foreigners or nonresidents is possible.
Leveled risk
“The ruble [now] may prove more resilient to Fed tightening than other EM currencies (Emerging markets, emerging markets. — RBC), and therefore the probability of our scenario of the ruble leaving in the range of 60-65 rubles. now it has decreased, ”the Gazprombank review says (RBC has it). According to the bank's analysts, the introduction of restrictions on Russian government debt could lead to an outflow of about $13 billion out of $38 billion of foreign capital from the OFZ market and have negative consequences for the ruble. Now, the refusal to apply sanctions on public debt and the possibility of assigning an investment grade rating to Russia from S&P and Moody’s can increase the stability of the ruble, prevent its weakening and allow the exchange rate to remain in the range of 55-60 rubles. per dollar, the review says. According to the updated forecast, by the end of 2018 the dollar exchange rate will be 57 rubles. (previously, the bank predicted the rate of 61 rubles per dollar), said Dmitry Dolgin, an economist at Gazprombank.
In the event of a ban on transactions with Russian government debt for foreign investors, the exchange rate could jump to 60 rubles. per dollar, but now this danger has passed, Kirill Tremasov, director of the analytical department of Loko-Bank, agrees. The main risks for the ruble are oil prices and capital flows, he adds. According to the expert, the dollar exchange rate during the year will be from 54 to 59 rubles, and the average annual rate will be 56.5-57 rubles. “At the end of April, the seasonal deterioration of the current account surplus will begin and the purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance will become more sensitive to the ruble, especially in the summer months, when the current account is negative,” Tremasov added.
Nordea Bank is also revising the ruble outlook in connection with the removal of the sanctions risk. “We are now in the process of revising the forecast,” Tatyana Evdokimova, chief economist at Nordea Bank, told RBC. “We considered the risk of sanctions as one of the reasons for our rather negative forecast for the ruble for the current year (61 rubles per dollar).”
The value of the ruble will change along with the value of currencies developing countries However, strong dynamics and a pronounced trend should not be expected, says Sergey Romanchuk, Director of the Foreign Exchange and Money Market Operations Department at Metallinvestbank. “The dollar against the ruble will behave in the same way as the dollar behaves against other emerging markets,” he explained. According to the expert's forecast, the dollar during 2018 will cost from 52 to 62 rubles.
New concerns
Although the risk of a ban on transactions with Russian government securities has decreased, a new factor has appeared that can weaken the ruble - the recent collapse of US stock markets, analysts say.
“On the one hand, the situation with sanctions looks better, but on the other hand, volatility in global markets is growing, oil prices are also falling,” Ivan Chakarov, chief economist at Citibank for Russia, told RBC. Now Citibank's forecast is 55.9 rubles. per dollar in the second quarter of the year, 55.2 rubles. per dollar - in the third and 54.6 rubles. per dollar - in the fourth (Bloomberg terminal data).
The US stock market completed February 5 indexes. The S&P 500 fell 4.1%, losing just over 113 points on the day, its biggest single-day decline in six years. Dow Jones lost a record 1175 points in its history, or 4.6%. As Bloomberg wrote with reference to the manager of Evercore ISI, Denis Debuchet, after three o'clock in the afternoon (US time) the market stopped responding adequately to the economic situation and in the collapse of shares of US stock markets there were signs of a flash crash (since 2010, the rapid collapse of quotations on American sites).
The US stock market is overheated and is growing at a rate far ahead of the economic growth, note in Gazprombank. If the trend continues and exits from risky assets begin, this may put pressure on the inflow of capital into ruble assets or even lead to its outflow, said Yegor Susin, head of the strategy development center at Gazprombank. “Now the ruble is highly dependent on capital flows, fluctuations in oil prices are generally leveled thanks to the mechanism foreign exchange interventions Ministry of Finance. If the situation on world stock markets develops negatively (they fall by 25-30%), then we may well see the dollar exchange rate above 65 rubles,” he clarifies.
The fall of the American stock market does not yet allow us to conclude whether this is a correction or a long-term trend has changed, says Sergey Romanchuk. “It is unlikely that this is a trend reversal, rather a correction, which will be of a short-term nature,” says Kirill Tremasov.
Analysts at Societe Generale (SG) note that the long-term prospects for the ruble are uncertain, since the threat of new sanctions has not disappeared, on the contrary, it may manifest itself with renewed vigor with the upcoming elections to the US Congress in November 2018. According to SG's forecast, with an average Brent oil price of $62 per barrel in 2018, the dollar exchange rate will be 58.7 rubles. (the bank's previous estimate was RUB 62.1).
Oil market analysts surveyed by Reuters in March expect oil prices to rise this year on disruptions in crude production and OPEC+ production cuts, but further market gains will be held back by rising U.S. supply.
North Sea Brent will average around $64/bbl in 2018, up from the previous forecast of $63/bbl, poll of 31 analysts shows
The average price for the North American benchmark WTI will be $59.85 per barrel in 2018, experts say. The previous forecast was $58.88 per barrel.
Brent futures rose 4 percent year-to-date thanks to OPEC and non-OPEC oil production cuts and tested $71 a barrel on Wednesday.
OPEC+ in 2018. What to expect?
The OPEC+ deal is valid until the end of this year. Its participants will gather on June 22 in Vienna to discuss future policy
“According to our calculations, OPEC is unlikely to decide to exit the deal by the middle of the year. But if we talk about extending the agreement after 2018, then we look at it very skeptically,” said Hannes Loaker from Raiffeisen Capital Management.
"We think that it will be very difficult to persuade Russia to do this. And without its participation, individual OPEC members may also have less desire (to extend the pact)."
Among other factors supporting quotes, analysts name the ongoing tension in the Middle East, as well as the steady decline in oil production in Venezuela.
US oil production
The reduction in stocks of raw materials in the US also strengthened the market, industry experts say.
The main counterweight to the efforts of OPEC + producers remains the rapid growth of oil production in the United States
As data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed, the volume of production of raw materials in the country last week reached 10.43 million barrels per day - a fresh maximum.
In its March review, the agency raised its forecast for US oil production to 11.17 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2018.
"The rise in U.S. production on the one hand, and the countered OPEC+ production cut on the other, will drive supply dynamics," said Caylin Birch of the Economist Intelligence Unit.
"In terms of demand, emerging markets in Asia will continue to be the main driver of demand."
According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand will increase by 6.9 million barrels per day to 104.7 million barrels per day by 2023 due to the growth of the Asian economy and the active development of the petrochemical sector in the United States.
10.01.2018 46 288 69 Reading time: 20 min.
Well, it's time to write fresh ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018. In this article, I will traditionally review the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the past year, the main factors affecting the value of the Russian currency, how they have changed and may change further, in order to draw conclusions about What will be the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018. I think that it should be interesting to all residents of the Russian Federation.
As always, I want to make a reservation right away: in the article I will cite various facts, on the basis of which I will draw my own conclusions. You have the right to agree with them or disagree, but you must make your financial decisions based on your own (and not mine or someone else's) conclusions, and independently, fully bear responsibility for them.
So, before giving a forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018, it is necessary to consider what its dynamics was in the past year.
The dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017
In 2017, nothing interesting happened to the ruble. In comparison with previous years, its rate looked quite stable, and even strengthened a little during the year.
Here is a chart showing the dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017:
As you can see for yourself, there was no trend in the ruble in 2017, the rate moved within the channel that I marked on the chart. The year started with upper bound channel, and ended closer to the bottom, thus, at the end of the year, there was a slight strengthening of the ruble exchange rate: from about 61 to 57 rubles per dollar, that is, by 6.5%.
It can be stated that in 2017 the ruble exchange rate stabilized and fluctuated within the 56-61 channel. But will this stability continue in 2018? Let's analyze.
Forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018: fundamental analysis
First of all, let's look at the fundamental factors that affect the ruble exchange rate and how they may change in 2018.
Oil prices
Factor 1. Oil prices. The dependence of the ruble on oil prices is becoming less and less. So, for example, in 2017, oil prices were in a trend, but the ruble exchange rate was not. Here is a chart of Brent oil prices for the same period.
At the beginning of 2017, oil prices were falling, and the ruble was strengthening, although it should have been falling logically. Then oil took a fairly strong uptrend, and the ruble exchange rate fluctuated back and forth, as a result, it practically did not change.
Please note: in June 2017, with an oil price of about $44 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate was about 57 rubles per dollar. In December 2017, with an oil price of about $67 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate is again about 57 rubles per dollar. Oil for this period has risen in price by 1.5 times, and the ruble exchange rate has not changed!
What does it say? On the one hand, the dependence between the ruble exchange rate and the price of oil is declining. On the other hand, we all perfectly understand that the ruble continues to be a commodity currency, and if the ruble exchange rate did not change with the growth of oil by 1.5 times, this means that in the absence of such growth, it would fall.
Thus, further strengthening of oil will not cause a strong strengthening of the ruble, but its fall in price may cause a weakening of the Russian currency.
What will happen to oil in 2018?
- The supply of oil in the market still exceeds the demand for it, according to forecasts, this trend will continue;
- The OPEC agreement on limiting production may not be extended (analysts see ambiguity in the text, moreover, it is unprofitable for Libya to support it - 50% country's GDP constitute oil revenues);
- US shale oil production will increase due to high oil prices;
- Development of new conventional oil fields in Alaska is expected.
Therefore, a strong rise in oil prices should not be expected, but a fall from current levels is more likely. With a fall in oil prices, the ruble is likely to weaken as well.
Sanctions
Factor 2. Sanctions. Sanctions, like “anti-sanctions”, also have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, although in the last year their influence was not as strong as before. We see that no one is going to lift sanctions, moreover, they are constantly being strengthened, new ones are being introduced.
All this has a negative impact on the Russian economy (I think that there is no one left who believes that “sanctions are only for our benefit”), and indirectly on the exchange rate of the ruble as a national currency. Because the volume of export-import operations is decreasing, the inflow of investments (on the contrary, there is an outflow), GDP, inflation is growing.
The removal of sanctions and anti-sanctions, especially the complete one, would contribute to a rather significant strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, since it would immediately create serious prerequisites for economic growth. Further expansion of sanctions will continue to put pressure on the economy and the national currency, and contribute to further devaluation of the ruble.
The next negative event in this direction may be a ban on foreign investors from acquiring Russian Eurobonds, OFZ and, which is planned to be imposed in February 2018.
Only after the appearance of this news, a serious outflow of foreign capital from the Russian stock market followed - investors withdrew hundreds of millions of dollars in December.
Therefore, the imposition of such sanctions can have a rather serious indirect impact on the ruble exchange rate and will contribute to its depreciation. Judge for yourself, now about 1/3 of the government bonds of the Russian Federation are in the hands of non-residents - such a share of the capital can be lost only directly due to the introduction of the ban. This will also indirectly affect the withdrawal of non-residents' capital from other Russian assets, in particular shares. The fall of stock market indices in December is a direct confirmation of this.
In addition, the gradual decline in the yield of ruble government bonds Russia leads to the fact that even without a ban they become unprofitable for foreign investors (the ratio ceases to be attractive).
All this indicates the continued outflow of foreign capital from the Russian Federation, which will contribute to the growth of the currency deficit and, as a result, the weakening of the ruble.
Central Bank Policy
Factor 3. Central bank policy. When giving a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018, one should definitely consider the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as the main currency regulator in the country. Consider its main tools currency regulation and how he uses them.
Discount rate. During 2017, the Central Bank lowered it 6 times, and in general lowered it by 25% - from 10% to 7.75%. The decrease step is small: 0.5-0.25 points, so this did not lead to significant currency fluctuations in the market.
Reducing the discount rate is a good trend for the economy, stimulating economic growth. However, economic growth, in turn, stimulates the growth of inflation, which means that foreign currency, like any other commodity, can grow in price, and the value of the national currency, respectively, can decrease.
In 2018, the discount rate may continue to decrease, even weaker than in 2017. In my opinion, this factor will not have any significant impact on the ruble exchange rate.
foreign exchange interventions. Here is more interesting. By the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, through the Central Bank, was increasingly actively buying foreign currency on the Moscow Exchange. So, for example, in September and October it was bought for 76 billion rubles each month, in November - for 123 billion rubles, and in December - as much as 204 billion rubles. While in the first months of the year such purchases were carried out for only 3-6 billion rubles per month.
Such an increased demand for the currency should have caused an increase in its value, and, consequently, a slight depreciation of the ruble, but this did not happen, on the contrary, in the last months of 2017, the ruble strengthened.
Moreover, central bank, the Ministry of Finance and representatives of other state financial institutions have repeatedly carried out the so-called. “verbal interventions”, declaring that by the end of the year the dollar exchange rate will definitely grow, which pushed the population and institutional investors to buy up the currency. However, again, the growth of the dollar and other currencies did not happen, despite the increase in demand, the effect was the opposite.
This situation once again confirms that the forecasts of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and other government agencies have the opposite effect. For example, when in 2014-2015 senior officials repeatedly spoke about the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, it continued to fall. Now, when they actively claimed that they would fall, on the contrary, it strengthened a little.
And, mind you, the Ministry of Finance itself most actively bought the currency at the end of the year, when, according to their own forecasts, the rate was supposed to rise, and not earlier, in anticipation of this alleged growth.
All this suggests that the forecasts of the ruble exchange rate they voice have little in common with the real forecasts, which, I suspect, they also calculate.
Presidential elections
Factor 4. Presidential elections. In the forecast of the dollar in Russia for 2018, one cannot ignore the presidential election, which will be held in March. In recent years economic situation in the country has deteriorated significantly. It is logical that on the eve of the elections, the incumbent president needs to demonstrate some improvement in the situation, some positive dynamics, which will add weight and voter support to him.
One of the factors of such an improvement, which is always well received by the population, is the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and other currencies. “Here you are, the ruble is strengthening, which means it is getting better, we are pursuing the right policy” - this message can be seen among others.
I believe that before the elections, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, if necessary, will in every possible way restrain the fall of the ruble and even, on the contrary, try to strengthen it, for example, by the same interventions. And for some time after the elections, too, so that there was no clear “border” of the trend change, coinciding with the elections. But then, somewhere from the middle of summer, autumn, this containment will most likely not happen, since there will be practically no resources left for this.
Accordingly, some time after the presidential elections, the ruble exchange rate may start a downward trend, due to the absence of restraining factors.
Economic indicators
Factor 5. Economic indicators. The final macroeconomic indicators have not yet been published, but according to preliminary data, it is clear that the Russian economy is in a state of stagnation. GDP growth is less than planned, around 2% per year. In the absence of global economic reforms, one should not expect any improvements in 2018; I know nothing about plans for such reforms.
Inflation will range from 2.5 to 3%, however, its decline is associated, rather, not with the stabilization of the economy, but with a complete fall purchasing power of the population (in 2017 it decreases by 1-2% compared to 2016, and in all previous years it has fallen even more). In 2018, the Central Bank itself predicts a slight increase in inflation compared to 2017.
Special mention should be made of the closure reserve fund and a reduction at the end of the year from 71.87 to 65.15 billion dollars. This suggests that financial reserves are increasingly depleted, and if necessary, there will soon be nothing to use.
Personally, I do not see and do not expect any significant positive changes in the economy that could positively affect the ruble exchange rate, and in comparison with the above factors, I consider this one not so significant.
Forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018: technical analysis
Now that we have covered the main global factors that will affect the ruble exchange rate in 2018, let's technical analysis to determine when and how the quotes may move.
In the last year, the ruble exchange rate was clamped in, symbolizing the figure of uncertainty. On the graph, it is indicated by blue lines. If the figure “works”, it means at what moment a breakdown will occur, and the course will leave the triangle in one of the directions, at least by the amount of the initial height of the triangle.
In my opinion, breaking the triangle down, which would mean the strengthening of the ruble somewhere up to 51 rubles per dollar, is unlikely, there are too many negative fundamental factors. Therefore, such a breakout is more likely to occur upwards after the rate fluctuates inside the triangle for some time.
At the top, I marked with blue lines the most significant nearest ones, on which, most likely, the rate will be delayed - these are 62, 63.5, 65, 66.5. If the level of 66.5 is broken, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble can rise much more significantly - the next significant levels are from 75 and above.
Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia for 2018: conclusions
Summing up the results of the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2018, I can draw the following conclusions:
- In general, fundamental factors suggest that the ruble will fall.
- There is a serious factor that is currently holding back this fall - this is a strong rise in oil prices.
- As long as oil prices continue to rise and remain high, the ruble exchange rate will change little, and a strong appreciation is unlikely.
- If the oil trend changes to fall, the ruble exchange rate will begin to fall.
- The greatest dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other currencies can be expected from the second half of 2018, in the first half it will most likely be weak.
- The most realistic scenario is the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate throughout the year in the range of 60-70 with a tendency to rise in price.
- With a significant increase in some negative factors, the dollar exchange rate may rise to higher levels, and vice versa, if the fundamental situation improves, the ruble exchange rate may fall more weakly, or continue to fluctuate in the current range until the end of the year.
Such a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018 turned out for me. As always, I am ready for a constructive dialogue in the comments. Also, you can always study other forecasts of experts and analysts, both well-known and not so well-known. Most importantly, remember that you alone are responsible for your financial decisions.
Join the number of regular site visitors and improve your financial literacy in order to better understand economic processes and manage personal finances more effectively. Until we meet again on the pages of the site!
Estimate:
Next year promises to be difficult for Russia. Taking into account the general inaction of the authorities against the backdrop of a worsening recession in the national economy and the refusal of the country's top leadership to take decisive action, one can expect a continued deterioration in the financial and economic state of the state. In addition, the coming year will have to determine the vector of subsequent development for the coming years. The starting point will be the presidential election.
Already at the beginning of 2017, experts made preliminary forecasts for the development of the Russian economy in 2018. Thus, specialists from financial-analytical, consulting, investment and insurance companies provided rather diverse information. Despite significant differences in the options presented by analysts, they have something in common - the invariable binding of the economic state to the vector of foreign and domestic policy. Also, the economic forecast of foreign specialists of rating agencies and financial companies for Russia for the next year 2018, it is "sharpened" for probable political events, military operations and the resolution of territorial disputes.
Unjustified optimism is redundant
For financiers closely monitoring the state national economies European countries and the United States, the position of the current government looks incomprehensible and rather risky. It officially announces the end financial crisis and most difficult times for households and businesses. All this is happening against the background of rather modest indicators of the Russian economy at the end of 2016 and at the beginning of 2017. For example, in the first quarter of this year, the country's GDP is characterized by a decline. But this year it was only 1.2%, and not 3.7%, as in the same quarter last year. At the same time, the economists of the magazine "Profile" remind readers that slowing down the decline is not equivalent to the beginning of growth. At the same time, the recession in the economy continues, which was reflected in the April statistics. In particular, Vnesheconombank analysts say that April results are negative.
Experts note the generally unsatisfactory dynamics in terms of GDP over the past 4 years (Fig. 1).
Russia GDP Annual Growth Rate The relative multidirectional movement of indicators characterizing the country's economy creates a false impression that the situation has leveled out and the crisis has been overcome. However, it is worth subjecting the fresh data to a thorough study and this is the picture that emerges. On the one hand, there is an increase in the export and raw materials sector, which is estimated, on average, at one and a half percent. The defense industry is also growing, sometimes by 15%, sometimes by 13% a year. And even forgotten by everyone Agriculture steadily has 3% growth per year.
And with all this, what can we expect from a country that has been experiencing a steady decline in incomes for the past 16 months in a row? This quite naturally leads to the decline of retail trade, the service sector, the construction market, the automotive industry, tourism, and so on. A steady decline in investment in the economy also does not seem to be a positive factor that allows one to talk about economic recovery. Expert forecast regarding the possibility of alignment investment market also remains disappointing against the backdrop of continued tense relations with the West and the aggressive sanctions policy of Europe.
Forecast of basic indicators for the Russian Economy according to http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast Although the opinions of analysts differ in terms of when the rise in Russia will begin, which official sources report, but the physical presence, which cannot be found in financial terms, it is worth counting on the fact that in 2018 it will become clear at least that what course the state will take. The normal state of the economy, according to all existing theories, is growth and expansion. In general, the reversal from a fall of 0.8% to an increase of 0.5% is small, overcoming it advanced economy possibly over a period equal to the financial year.
Forecasts for Russia depend not so much on the capabilities of its production and service sectors, but on export prices for resources. In particular, if the price of oil rises to $60 during this year alone, then our country has very real prospects for starting a new trend, turning the situation around and setting the rails. economic development for growth. However, every single expert predicts that even if prices rise to at least $57 per barrel, this trend will not be long-term and will not allow our economy to recover. There are already examples of such market behavior and their consequences were not positive for Russia (Fig. 2).
Do not seek to convert your savings into foreign currency in 2018. The presence of problems in the country's economy suggests unpredictable volatility currency pairs and market financial instruments generally. It is better to invest in the so-called "long" money with a payback of 2-3 years.
However, there is no certainty that responsible persons in the Ministry and the Government do not expect such “gifts” from the market and do not plan to form a budget for 2018 based on such unjustifiably positive calculations.
Rice. 2. Price dynamics are not oil
Possible ways of development
Additional issue of money: the last hope or a chance for a "recovery"
Due to the lack of prospects for positive changes v Russian economy, among specialists, a dispute flares up with renewed vigor about the possibility of using additional emission money supply as a support tool. While analysts are only speculating about how high the risks of launch printing press and expect the consequences, the country's leadership has long decided that printing money is possible. What is it used for?
- military spending;
- fulfillment of obligations to employees in the public sector of the economy;
- observance of obligations in the social policy of the state;
- ensuring the need for financing targeted programs.
An experiment of this kind has already been carried out, in particular, the largest fact of launching the money supply into the economy was the purchase of foreign currency by the Central Bank from the Ministry of Finance. At the same time, it is planned that the Central Bank in a fairly short period of the next year can thus introduce more than one and a half trillion rubles into the economy, including through the bank rescue program. What awaits Russia in 2018, if already now an additional mass of money has been printed in the amount of 358 billion rubles. This money will subsequently be issued to all depositors whose banks the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has revoked the license to carry out activities.
With such a financing policy, one can expect the Central Bank to simply determine the allowable issue volume for 2018 for Russia. However, such an approach will not only slow down the current development, but will also become a problem for the new (if it is new) leadership of the country, which will begin to fulfill its duties in the first half of 2018.
Against the optimistic economic forecast for Russia for 2018, there is still another significant limiting factor - the refusal of the current government to look into the future. No substantive decisions regarding the development of the system puts the entire future of the state at great risk.
The economic situation has a trend towards fixing the existing directions that want and support the system in working condition, but do not give it the opportunity to get ahead.
Thus, most forecasters expect that the scenario for the country's economic development in 2018 will be more negative than positive, regardless of what the official positions of the Ministry of Finance and the head of the Government are.