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The structure of the shift in the Russian economy. Summary: Structural changes in the modern Russian economy

I. ECONOMY

38. Structural shifts in the economy. Building an open economy

The deepening social differentiation of the population requires strengthening the social component of the course of market reforms in Russia. In the current conditions, transformations in the social sphere should be aimed at achieving the following main goals:
- ensuring the most effective protection of the socially vulnerable population;
- implementation of universal availability and socially acceptable quality of basic social benefits;
- the creation of economic conditions that allow citizens to have a higher level of social consumption at the expense of their own income, including housing, the quality of services in education and health care, a decent standard of living in old age;
- the formation in the socio-cultural sphere of institutions that create an opportunity for the fullest possible mobilization of funds from the population and enterprises, the effective use of these funds, and on this basis - the provision of high quality and opportunities for a wide choice of social services by the population.

The program of social reforms proposed by the government is intended to provide guidelines that make it possible to build social policy based on the resources and capabilities actually available to the state. Only in this case, an active social policy acts not as a constraint, but as a catalyst economic growth.

The country's economy has a certain structure- the relationship between the spheres of the economy, its branches, regions and firms. By the beginning of the transition economy (1991) structure Russian economy was extremely deformed: 1) hypertrophy of the defense and mining industries; underdeveloped production of consumer goods and services, the presence of excess capacity in the manufacturing industry; 2) the costly nature of the economy, the low level of technology and direct loss of resources due to the underdevelopment of the production infrastructure; 3) dependence on imports of goods and services with a poorly diversified export potential.

The main objectives of structural policy today are:
1) high-quality renewal of technologies, creation of sources of long-term growth;
2) redistribution of resources in favor of the development of the consumer sector of the economy.

The goals and mechanisms of structural maneuver for the short-term (3-5 years) and long-term (10-50 years) prospects are different. In the short term, one can count on a more efficient use of existing production capacities and the involvement of additional resources (natural, human) in production. The long-term period solves other problems: a radical renewal of technologies and the transition to an effective science-intensive, low-cost, environmental-protective type of economic growth; reduction of ineffective capital construction; social reorientation of the economy. In this regard, the following should occur structural changes in the economy:
1) accelerated development of the civilian sector of the economy by reducing the defense sector, or through the so-called conversion;
2) development of a complex of industries that ensure the effective functioning of the country's scientific and technical potential;
3) creation of a modern production infrastructure - information, energy, transport and storage support.

In order to solve these problems, it is advisable to develop market system economic management. And this means strengthening the domination of private property in based on competition, system of markets, prices and openness of the economy. Open economy- an economy involved in foreign trade. The degree of openness of the economy is estimated by the share of its international (foreign trade) sector in GDP.

import the bias towards the consumer sphere remains. A distinctive feature of the modern period is the reorientation from the import of raw materials for easy and Food Industry(grain, fabrics, raw cotton) for the import of finished consumer goods with a high level of profitability (primarily food products). Such a high degree of dependence on food imports, on the one hand, poses a potential threat to the country's economic security. On the other hand, one cannot fail to see that as a result of an ill-conceived foreign trade policy, Western manufacturers often dump into the domestic markets of Russia products that are quite cheap, but often inferior in quality to domestic ones.

In the commodity structure of the Russian export fuel and raw materials resources prevail.

Russia's foreign economic policy at the beginning of the third millennium will be aimed at ensuring:
- the best conditions for the access of Russian goods, services and labor to world markets;
- effective protection of the internal market for goods, services and labor;
- access to international resources of strategic importance for economic development(such as capital and technology, goods and services, the production of which is absent or limited);
- favorable balance of payments of the country;
- the effectiveness of state support for the export of products with high added value;
- observance of the principle of reciprocity - a favorable balance of mutual concessions and obligations.

Russia's accession to the WTO allows it to take part in the development of decisions for a new round of multilateral trade negotiations, and most importantly - on conditions that eliminate discrimination against Russia in foreign markets.

Innovative development. The intensification of socio-economic development will require maintaining a significant scale of fundamental research in Europe and even increasing it by 2020. It is safe to predict the modernization of non-competitive sectors of the European economy, which will be accompanied by the spin-off of high-tech industries while the closure of unprofitable and environmentally hazardous enterprises. The EU's current lag behind the United States and Japan in a number of indicators of scientific and technological development will be overcome primarily through the formation and improvement of a common European policy on education, vocational training and retraining. Strengthening competition in innovative industries will require further development of pan-European cooperation in the field of R&D and concentration of efforts on priority research areas.

The priorities for scientific and technological development at the pan-European level are formulated in the EU framework programs for promoting R&D. According to the current EU Sixth Framework Program (2002-2006), seven thematic research directions(in order of share of expenses):

information Technology;

implementation of sustainable development and solving environmental problems;

nanotechnology and new materials, as well as new devices and technological processes;

genomics and biotechnology for health care;

aviation and space research;

development of safe and quality food products;

research that helps build civil society is knowledge-based.

It seems that the Seventh Framework Program until 2011 will maintain these priority areas, although the ratio between them will change. Probably, the share of biotechnological and aerospace research will slightly increase, and research in the field of new sources of energy, in particular thermonuclear fusion, may also become a priority development will go the other way in the short term). Until 2020, more significant shifts are possible associated with new challenges, say, in the field of sociobiology or bioinformatization.

Accelerated development of scientific and technological progress in the EU countries will be associated, in particular, with an increase in both public and private expenditures (expenditures of firms and funds) on R&D. Their aggregate volume will grow from 2% of GDP in 2002 (for the EU-15) to 2.4% by 2010 (for the EU-25) and 2.8% in 2020 (for the EU-28); at the same time, relative expenditures in the old member countries will be higher than in the new ones, and will reach an average of 3% of GDP by 2020. The ratio between the state and business in financing will not change significantly, although in a number of countries a slight decrease in the state share is likely (from 35 to 30%, and, for example, in Germany - to 25-28%).

However, if in countries such as Germany and France, the task is to exceed the 3% threshold (and in Sweden and Finland it is already close to 4% of GDP), then in Italy it may be difficult even to increase R&D expenditures from the current 1 % Of GDP up to 2%. The country's budgetary resources are too tight, and its private sector does not have a large number of large innovative companies. The most promising option for the development of R&D for not, and, apparently, for the new member countries will be the widest possible participation in the pan-European innovation strategy - the creation of a single research and innovation space, and in particular, the active role of Italian firms in R&D programs funded EU. The measures outlined by the European Union during the 2000 Lisbon summit, if implemented in the forecast period, can significantly expand the access of Italy and other countries with low R&D spending to high-quality infrastructure, strengthen its position in scientific and technical partnerships, and create new opportunities. to promote national business in leading industries modern technologies and help mobilize national financial resources to support the most promising areas of NTP.

V individual countries the innovative component of development is implemented in different ways. So, in Germany innovative development will cover practically all economic sectors in the forecast period. Its areas of particular importance will be biotechnology, new energy technologies, laser technologies, development of new materials, aerospace engineering, but the dominant industries in terms of R&D expenditures will apparently remain the automotive industry.

For Of Italy specific feature the innovation process is the ability of its small and medium-sized enterprises to quickly and massively renew the output of "traditional" industries (textile, footwear, food industry, household appliances, design), adaptability to changing consumer demand. The viability of this innovative model to date has stemmed from the creativity of small businesses in a clustered environment that is able to ensure continuous product diversification and, along the way, building a skilled workforce on the spot. In the future, however, this model will become increasingly vulnerable due to globalization, which opens up European markets for consumer products. developing countries, first of all, China, produced there in large volumes and at much lower costs.

In countries Northern Europe in the forecast period, scientific research in the northern countries for the most part will remain highly specialized. Due to lack of funds for basic research improvement of existing products and processes, applied development to create new products and technologies will continue to prevail. The main areas of R&D will be the development of communications, microelectronics, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, the use of alternative energy sources and energy conservation, ecology.

Structural shifts in the economy. Further decrease in the share of material production, in particular agriculture (especially in the new member countries), which will be facilitated by the gradual reduction in subsidies to peasants, the mining and metallurgical industries, as well as the production of clothing, footwear and other consumer goods. The reduction and gradual elimination of government subsidies for certain industries will lead to their radical modernization. True, in a number of countries in the next 4-5 years due to such industries as the automotive industry, mechanical engineering, the chemical industry and electrical engineering, it is possible to stabilize the share of the manufacturing industry in GDP (for example, in Germany, the share of industry and energy in the production of GDP in 2000-2005 stabilized at the level of 22.5 - 23% and is unlikely to noticeably decrease in the coming years), but after 2010, a significant slowdown in the development of this sector is likely in both Western and Eastern European countries (in the latter - except for Latvia - the share of industry and construction is still much higher - at the level of 30 - 37%, but in 4 - 5 years it will begin to decrease).

Energy will develop at a moderate pace, but will change qualitatively. Obviously, the EU countries will try to reduce their energy dependence on external supplies by slowly but consistently increasing the share of so-called alternative energy sources (wind, geothermal, solar, tidal energy). Nuclear energy will develop extremely unevenly. Probably in the next 10-15 years European countries will try to find acceptable solutions regarding the safety of nuclear power plants and waste disposal in order to prevent an exit from this sector (which, in particular, is still supposed to be done in Sweden by 2010, and in Germany by 2030).

The decline in the share, and in some cases, the absolute production volumes of industrial sectors in GDP is due both now and in the medium term by the growing competition from China, India, Southeast Asian countries, Latin America, etc. In the next decade, trends the withdrawal of industrial production outside the EU will intensify. At the same time, European TNCs will expand on the territory of their home countries the production of high-tech goods and services that provide strategic management of foreign divisions and further global economic expansion.

In a number of manufacturing industries (primarily in mechanical engineering and metalworking), further decentralization of production is likely - a reduction in the average size of production units. A similar reduction in the average size of enterprises is outlined in many branches of the service sector, where it is associated with a deepening of specialization and with the ever wider use of flexible forms of labor organization (temporary contracts, part-time work).

The current great importance " old "industries in the structure of the economy with a one-sided world economic specialization generates high rates of long-term unemployment (in Poland and Slovakia it exceeds 10%, in Greece and Lithuania - 5%). But even in some of the old member countries, a large share of traditional industries, which are highly dependent on fluctuations in market conditions and generally remain structurally weak, are still holding back the dynamics of economic development. However, industries such as the automotive, electronics, pharmaceuticals and advanced biotechnology industries will grow at an accelerated pace, but increasingly move to Eastern Europe.

It should also be borne in mind that the economy of some southern and eastern European countries still relies heavily on the development of agriculture (the share of food in Cyprus' exports exceeds 1/3, Greece - 20%, Spain - 14%; accordingly, the share of agriculture in the total the product of these countries in 2004 amounted to 3.8; 6.4; 3.5%; in Bulgaria and Romania it is significantly higher - 10.9 and 14.4%). The gradual abandonment of an active agricultural policy at the EU level, since it has achieved the goal of food self-sufficiency and is now largely ineffective, may create difficulties for development and adaptation in the countries of Southern Europe and CEE by 2020. The share of agriculture in GDP (especially in Greece, Slovakia , the Baltic countries) will noticeably decrease - to a level not exceeding 3.5%, and in general in the EU-25 it will be less than 2%.

Concerning construction, then in the early 2000s, this industry demonstrated multidirectional development in the EU countries: a sustained construction crisis in Germany and Finland was accompanied by a boom in the construction industry in Great Britain, Ireland and Spain, moderate growth in France and Italy, and stagnation in Portugal and Slovenia. The CEE countries are also seeing growth in the construction industry (excluding Slovenia). Probably, in the next 5 - 7 years the situation will level out, and by 2015 - 2020. the share of construction in GDP as a whole across the EU is stabilizing. Thus, in Germany, the share of construction, which has fallen over the past decade from 6 to almost 4%, is obviously stabilizing at this level, and the stabilizing role will be played not so much by industrial as by housing, since at the end of this decade the process will begin and continue until 2020. reconstruction and partial replacement of the housing stock, created in the 50s - 70s.

Height gross investment will vary greatly across countries, but will remain low on average. Investment activity in Germany, as in the early 2000s, there will be instability, especially until 2010 (from - 0.5% to + 3.5%), but in the second half of the forecast period, investment recovery is possible in housing construction, which has already been mentioned, although its scale will be small.

In France and Great Britain, on the contrary, investments will grow relatively steadily at 2 - 3% per year, as well as in Italy, although in the latter the rates will be more modest - 1.0 - 1.5%. True, in France, where a wave of massive capital renewal took place relatively recently (1998-2001) and another wave is coming to an end, connected with the "catching up" of the existing lag in the sphere information technologies, such investment growth is possible only if the tax burden is reduced as a result of reforming the social sphere.

High investment activity (about 4 - 5% per year) will continue in Spain and Ireland, low (about 1%) - in Portugal. In the CEE countries, the investment boom in 2004-2005. will decline, although investment growth until 2010 is likely to be faster than in the old member countries (on average by about 5%), and then the growth rate will decline to the standard European 3%.

Share sphere of circulation and services in the produced GDP will increase from 71 to 74-75%, mainly due to financial and business services, communications, as well as private services, and in the case of implementation of the scenario of "unhurried sustainability" - and up to 78-80%. In addition to these service segments, tourism and hospitality can play an important role in this, especially in Southern Europe. At the same time, in a number of countries - old EU members, the share of services may exceed 80% (currently this is typical only for the Luxembourg economy). In the new member countries, the service sector will also grow steadily. True, the rapid development of the service sector in economically backward EU countries is often associated with the creation of individual segments of it almost "from scratch", and mainly by subsidiaries of foreign telecommunications companies, banks, insurance companies, etc. As soon as free and unfilled markets are captured, and the demand of the population will become close to saturation, the growth rate of the service industries will slow down.

The relatively slow development of retail trade (excluding the UK), hospitality and tourism in the first half of the forecast period will be accompanied by an accelerated growth in transport and especially communications. However, after 2012 - 2015, as already noted, the growth of tourism and the entire recreational sector in the "old" Europe is not excluded.

Due to innovative activity and structural shifts in the economy (in particular, a decrease in the share of industry), the energy intensity of production should decrease even more, and possibly its labor intensity (including in the service sector as the use of Internet technologies expands).

The share of personal consumption in the use of GDP will slightly increase - from 60-63 to 67-68% - not so much due to an increase in its volumes, but due to a slight decrease in the shares of government consumption and investment; Gradually, but steadily, there will be a reduction in subsidies provided to both sectors of the economy and households. A decrease in the unemployment rate (especially in France and Germany) can have a positive effect on the growth of personal consumption, which in this case will increase its importance as a component of final demand.

INTRODUCTION

The new technological revolution unfolding before our eyes is leading to unprecedented structural changes in the economic system of society. In this situation, the tasks of a comprehensive study of structural changes in the economy come to the fore. This task is especially relevant in the conditions of modern Russia, which needs to make a structural breakthrough into the future, to become a full member of the world economic community.

The relevance of the chosen topic is determined by the following aspects. Modern structural shifts in the economies of industrialized countries are of a systemic nature and are part of a global macro-shift that predetermines the transition from industrial to post-industrial society. These shifts are characterized by a relative decrease in the share of traditional industries and structures (primarily agriculture, mining and processing industries), as well as an increase in the share of the service sector, high-tech and science-intensive industries that accumulate the latest achievements of scientific and technological progress. They are international in nature, reflecting the global trends in the development of the productive forces. More and more countries and regions are gradually being drawn into the orbit of scientific and technological progress, which leads to new forms of division of labor within the framework of the world economy.

Comparison of the current state of the structure of the economy of Russia and industrialized countries, unfortunately, is not in favor of our country. A significant gap in the pace and direction of structural shifts in the economic systems of Russia, on the one hand, and the advanced states of the West, on the other, is obvious. The share of advanced technological structures in the Russian economy has been steadily declining in recent years and is now approaching 10%, while the share of traditional, backward structures is growing and in aggregate amounts to more than 50%.

The purpose of this course work is to study the phenomenon of structural changes in the modern Russian economy. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks can be distinguished:

Expand the essence and concept of structural changes;

Classify structural changes according to various characteristics and grounds;

Explore the phenomenon of innovation as a modern basis for economic development;

To study the phenomenon of structural shifts in the modern Russian economy based on innovations, to assess and consider the prospects.

The object of research of this course work is the world and Russian economy, the subject is structural changes in modern economy.

1. Structural shifts as an economic phenomenon

1.1 The essence and concept of structural changes

The structure of the economy is a complex system of interrelated proportions, formed under the influence of the existing technical basis, social mechanisms of distribution and exchange in accordance with social needs and the achieved level of labor productivity. The structure of the economy reflects the prevailing system of division of labor, which, "having often a technological origin, is essentially economic, mediated by property relations and institutional forms, and is realized through relations of exchange."

All this testifies to a broad and multifaceted concept of structure. Thus, the economy can be viewed both from the side of production and from the side of distribution and consumption of the product and national income (reproductive structure), from the side of enterprises and industries, as well as from the side of individual structure-forming factors and processes.

All structures, including economic ones, go through the following stages in their development: origin, growth, a period of maturity, regressive transformations (crisis) and disappearance or decay. Nucleation and growth can be viewed as a process of organization within the old structure, a process of dealing with conservative parties and elements, a process of changing systemic qualities. The period of maturity characterizes the stationary state of the structure, when the processes of organization and disorganization balance each other. Regressive transformations reflect the process of disorganization of the structure, when it, in turn, gives way to a new structure. Continuity, the formation of new structures in the depths of old ones and on their basis is of great importance in the development of structures. There are no and cannot be pure structures of one kind or another, they always contain elements of old and the rudiments of future interrelations, in addition, various structures sometimes coexist with each other.

In this regard, it is possible to single out such basic processes occurring in the depths of each structure as adaptation and transformation. Even K. Marx wrote that "... an organic system as an aggregate whole has its preconditions, and its development towards integrity consists precisely in subjugating all elements of society or creating from it organs that are still missing for it." At this stage, the nascent elements of new structures cannot exist otherwise than by adapting to the old components, being built into the system of their connections. However, gradually the connections are transformed, a new integrity appears, and everything is repeated from the beginning 1.

The structure of the economy is characterized by heterogeneity, the corresponding hierarchy and proportions between its components. The structural aspect of development manifests itself both through quantitative growth and through certain qualitative changes in the economy of society. This interpretation of the structure of the economy is applicable to the study of development problems (the replacement of some structures by others), the center of which is structural shifts.

In general, any change in the economic system is structural in nature, since there is no matter outside the systems, which means that there can be no non-structural changes. Another thing is that not all shifts lead to significant changes in the economy.

Such a generality of structural changes leads to the fact that structural changes in the economy as an independent category have been left out of deep scientific research. Basically, they are considered along with other economic phenomena and processes. There is some confusion between the concepts of structural change and structural change. These words are often used as synonyms. However, the concept of shifts to the greatest extent reflects the nature of the transformation processes taking place in economic structures. LA Berkovich defines structural shifts as "a change in the proportions of the economic system that occurs under the influence of all structure-forming factors."

A structural shift is understood as any significant change in the internal structure of a system, the relationships between its elements, the laws of these relationships, leading to a change in the basic (integral) systemic qualities. It follows from the definition that structural shifts are a kind of dynamic processes occurring in the economic system. Along with them, other manifestations of economic dynamics stand out: cycles, fluctuations, disturbances.

The fundamental difference between structural changes from the above processes is the presence of the fact of changes in the basic systemic qualities. Thus, disturbances and superficial fluctuations in the economic structure do not lead to a change in the integral qualities of the system. Economic cycles, some of which are undoubtedly accompanied by shifts in the economic structure, are rather a system of several structural shifts of different directions.

Based on the recognition of certain dynamic processes as structural shifts, a change in the basic systemic qualities, it is possible to determine the boundaries of the existence of shifts within a certain economic structure. Disturbances in the structure only then develop into a structural shift when the integral qualities of the economic system change. This is the "lower bound" of the shift. The “upper limit” of structural shifts is the existence of the very economic system, when further shifts in the structure lead to its destruction and the formation of a new system unit on its basis.

Structural shifts are undoubtedly transformative. However, speaking about the relationship between the concepts of structure and form, it should be noted that they are close in meaning, but not identical. The concept of form is broader. Form is a manifestation of content in general, while structure is one of the aspects of form that characterizes the position and interrelationships of elements in the system.

Thus, structural changes in the economy are manifested in the form of changes in the position of elements, shares, proportions and quantitative characteristics of the economic system. The content of the same structural shifts is a change in interstructural and intersystem connections, as well as the main characteristics (systemic qualities) of the economic system.

1.2. Classification of structural changes according to various characteristics and grounds

Structural shifts in the economy are classified according to various features and grounds, which not only show all of their diversity, but also allow one to characterize the same structural shift from different sides: alignment in space, length in time, coverage of economic elements 1:

1) Structural shifts can be grouped according to historical characteristics - each stage of history has its own structural shifts in the economy (for example, shifts at the stage of transition from an agrarian society to an industrial one and then to an informational one).

2) In terms of territorial (geographic) coverage, shifts are subdivided into changes in the structure of the economy of certain regions, regions, countries, other territorial and administrative entities (be it the great economic depression in the United States or the industrial boom in post-war Germany).

3) According to the scope of economic elements, global and local, macro, meso, micro and nanoshears are distinguished. Microshifts are structural changes at the level of an enterprise, its divisions, a firm; meso - at the level of more complex economic systems: corporations, industries. Macro shifts are changes in such economic formations as the national and world economy. Macro shifts lead to changes in the main economic proportions and indicators of the functioning of the economy. Many local shifts in the economic structure (for example, the renewal of production at a single enterprise) merge into global shifts that change the whole picture of social and economic life beyond recognition.

In turn, all local economic structures experience powerful impulses of global macro-shifts and are involved in the process of further structural transformation.

4) According to the speed, duration, depth and scale of changes, the shifts are divided into evolutionary and revolutionary.

Structural changes, on the one hand, are a continuous process, since economic activity is not interrupted for a minute. On the other hand, they are characterized by rather large stages and stages, breaks of gradualness. The evolutionary course of changes in the economic structure is at times interrupted by the stormy processes of its cardinal (revolutionary) renewal.

5) By their nature, all structural shifts can be divided into irreversible and reversible (cyclic) shifts.

From a philosophical standpoint, any change in structure is irreversible. It is possible to speak only about relatively reversible phenomena and processes, about spiral motion, since any repetition (cycle) is not an exact copy of the previous one.

According to a number of authors (J. Tinbergen, E. Hansen, R. Stone, B. Racine), the reversibility of structural changes is explained by the fact that they are a reflection of cyclical fluctuating processes in the economy. The irreversible component of structural shifts in a constructively developing system is progressive economic growth, or vice versa - an economic recession (crisis, disintegration) in destructively developing systems.

6) As an independent group, it is possible to distinguish shifts in the structure of reproduction at all its stages: production, distribution, exchange and consumption.

The change in macroeconomic reproduction proportions is a generalizing result of the entire set of structural changes. The macroeconomic proportions, as a rule, include the reproduction structure of the aggregate social product, the ratio of the funds for compensation, consumption and accumulation, the costs of living and past labor, two divisions of social reproduction. The reproduction structure at the macro level is also characterized by the ratio of the most important production resources per annual social product. The indicators of production efficiency used in economic research - labor productivity, capital productivity, the output of the final social product per unit of specific resources - are essentially structural indicators that characterize the economic system. The unit costs of production resources at the macro level reflect, obviously, not only narrow technological aspects of reproduction, but also the efficiency of the socio-economic mechanism, the entire system industrial relations.

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Krasilnikov Oleg Yurievich. Structural shifts in the economy of Russia in transition: Dis. ... Cand. econom. Sciences: 08.00.01: Saratov, 1996 177 p. RSL OD, 61: 96-8 / 675-5

Introduction

Chapter I Structural shifts as an economic phenomenon 16

2 Features of structural changes in the Russian economy in transition 42

3 Comparative characteristics of structural changes in Russia and industrial developed countries ah 68

Chapter II Prospects for structural changes in the transitional economy of Russia

1 Mechanism for the implementation of structural changes in a transitional economy 95

2 Strategy for implementing structural changes in the Russian economy 117

Conclusion 149

List of used literature 155

Introduction to work

Relevance of the research topic. The new technological revolution unfolding before our eyes is leading to unprecedented structural changes in the economic system of society. In this situation, the tasks of a comprehensive restructuring of the Russian economy, its theoretical substantiation and practical implementation are brought to the fore. The problem is complicated by the fact that along with the comprehensive modernization of the economic structure of Russia, it is necessary to carry out its transition to the market, to make it a full member of the world economic community.

Already in the formulation of the topic of our research, two most pressing problems are seen: the problem of studying the economy in transition and the problem of shifts in the economic structure. But even more relevant, in our opinion, is a synthetic study of the merger of these problems on the concrete historical material of the modern Russian economy.

For many years, the structure of the national economy of Russia has developed according to its own specific laws. Today, when the question of integrating the country's economy into the world economy arose, it became clear that these economic structures are largely incompatible. The situation is aggravated by prolonged economic crisis characterizing the current stage of development of the Russian economy. The nature of this crisis is also deeply specific. For his

descriptions do not fit the traditional templates of overproduction crises or structural crises (for example, the energy end of the 70s), typical for the economies of developed countries. This is a deep systemic-formation breakdown of old and the emergence of new market-commodity production relations, which has on the surface all the features of a crisis (a decline in production, a decrease in labor productivity, etc.). In this regard, the theoretical substantiation of the ways of creating an effective economic structure in the transition period acquires special relevance.

Insufficient dynamism of progressive structural changes in the Russian economy in comparison with more developed countries led to a lag in its development from the structure of the economy of the former, the emergence of disparities between the current structure of production and social needs.

Of particular relevance is the problem of determining the directions of structural changes in order to achieve an effective economic structure. For this, it is necessary to more accurately investigate their initial

position, starting from which, you can begin to implement these shifts.

Structural shifts in the economy should be seen not only as a result of economic development, but also as a very important factor in the steady progress of the economy. It is known that the efficiency of social labor in individual sectors, sub-sectors and types of production, distribution, exchange and consumption is not the same. The range of these differences, as practice shows, is quite large. Therefore, in general (cumulative)

the efficiency of the reproduction structure depends on the level of efficiency of certain types of reproduction relations and their material-material structure.

The main problem is how, in a situation of imbalance, in difficult internal and external conditions, to implement such structural changes that will allow us to get out of the crisis, increase the efficiency of reproduction and re-engage on the basis of mutual benefit in the international division of labor.

It should be noted that the actions that will be taken in the area of ​​structural changes are of strategic importance and determine the future. In addition, it is obvious that there is not and cannot be a real economic structure that would be optimal in all respects once and for all. In these conditions, it becomes especially urgent to develop a program of structural changes in a transitional economy, which cannot be carried out without new approaches in economic theory, a critical analysis of the existing economic system, and an objective assessment of practical experience.

The relevance of the study of structural changes is also due to the insufficient development of these issues in domestic and foreign economic literature.

The degree of elaboration of the problem. In our opinion, it is possible to distinguish at least three stages in the development of economic theory, which considers structural changes in the economy in one aspect or another.

The first stage is characterized by the fact that the structure of the economy was studied insofar as, in connection with other problems:

labor, capital, value, profit, etc. (A. Smith, D. Ricardo, A. Marshall). Moreover, it is considered, as a rule, the static state of the economy "although separate attempts are made

studying dynamic structural processes (theory of extended reproduction by K. Marx, economic equilibrium by L. Walras). The end of the first stage coincided with the end of the 19th century. The second stage lasted until the mid-1920s and was marked by works on economic statics and dynamics by J.

B. Clarke, and the theory of dynamic equilibrium by V. Pareto.

So, according to JB Clarke, economic dynamics clarifies the reasons for the imbalance, as well as the transition from one state of equilibrium to another. Clarke reduced these violations to imbalances between industries, to inconsistencies in the structure

supply and demand.

The third stage begins in the mid-1920s. It is characterized, first of all, by the development of theories of economic growth (E. Domar, R. Harrod). A new point in the analysis of the economic structure is the development of multi-sectoral models of economic growth (English economist R. Stone), in which they are combined with balance sheets, in particular, with the input-output balance.

L. V. Kantorovich, V. S. Nemchinov, and V. Leont'ev also made a great contribution to the development of such problems using mathematical methods. The construction of multi-sectoral models of economic growth and input-output balance is aimed at reflecting structural shifts in the economy and providing a basis for economic programming when

developing an economic strategy.

The modern stage of research, in relation to the topic of the dissertation, is characterized by a fairly deep study of the problems of the transition period (see the works of A.V. Buzgalin,

0. Gubanova, Yu.M. Osilova, V.I. Kuznetsov, V. Radaev).

However, in the world economics there are fundamental developments in theoretical and methodological problems of structural changes in the economy, their socio-economic consequences in the context of the unfolding scientific and technological revolution. In the modern scientific community, there is a constant interest in the study of the problem and the identification of patterns of structural changes, their interaction with the socio-economic progress of social systems. A great contribution to the development of the theory and methodology of structural changes and their effectiveness was made by Russian and foreign scientists: A.I. Anchishkin, A. Giri, V, S. Dunaeva, K. Clark, Ya. A. Kronrod, S. Kuznets, 0. Lange, V. Leontiev, A, I. Notkin, S. G. Strumilin "I. Schumpeter, Yu.V. Yaremenko and others.

Thanks to the research carried out by these scientists, significant progress has been made in the analysis of interdependence.

between the level of development of the economy and its structure. On this basis, it is generally accepted that these interdependencies are objective. An increasing number of researchers

tend to believe that the main reason for the progressive shifts in the economy are not only material, but also social factors integrated in social structures and the mass consciousness of society. Understanding the differences in the structure of the economic

growth and its factors are very useful, since it makes it possible to work out the most effective and alternative ways of development,

search for the best possible option for managing the process of structural changes and their orientation towards the economic growth of the social system.

However, the problem of structural shifts in the economic literature remains not fully developed. The weakest

link in economic research is the lack of

an integrated approach to the analysis of structural changes in the economy,

first of all "the problems of the transition period and structural changes. The question of the specifics of structural changes in the modern conditions of the transitional economy of Georgia remains poorly understood. The very mechanism of structural shifts (both in a stable and in a transitional economy), which is a complex conglomerate of various factors and is an internal source of economic development, continues to remain outside the field of view of economists.

structures, first of all, during the transition period.

The insufficient level of elaboration, the urgency of these problems, as well as their theoretical and practical significance, determined the choice of the topic, the setting of goals and objectives, and research.

Goals and objectives of the study. The purpose of the dissertation is to clarify the features and directions of structural changes in the Russian economy and substantiate the strategy of structural changes in the transition period. To achieve this goal, the focus is on solving the following tasks:

Determination of the phenomenon of structural change in the economy, its form and content, the reasons for generating structural changes;

classification of structural changes in the economy;

study of the features and prospects of structural changes in the Russian economy in transition;

study of the mechanism for the implementation of structural changes in general and in the transitional economy of Russia in particular;

development of a strategy and program for carrying out progressive structural changes in the Russian economy in transition;

The subject of research in the dissertation are the relations characterizing structural changes in general and in Russian

economies in transition in particular.

Research object reproductive

structure of the Russian economy in the transition period.

Theoretical and methodological basis research has served the theory and concepts set forth both in the works of domestic scientists and Western economists. The work critically comprehends the ideas of domestic and foreign representatives of economic thought, uses the advantages of the methodology of different directions to the study of structural changes in the economy.

When implementing the goals and objectives of the work, the author from the dialectical-materialistic positions in line with systems approach applied: subject-object, structural-functional, historical-logical, mathematical and statistical research methods, which should contribute to the reliability and reliability of the results.

Theoretical conclusions and generalizations are made on the basis of processing statistical data presented in domestic

and foreign sources, in particular materials of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, VTsIOM, collections of the regional committee on statistics Saratov region, statistical data of the US economy, and

structural changes. Structural shifts are understood as changes in the internal structure of the economic system, the relationships between its elements, which are accompanied by the transformation of the basic (integral) systemic qualities. Criteria for identifying structural changes in the economy of the transition period are substantiated, depending on various signs and grounds: territorial, geographical, historical, in terms of speed, duration and scale of transformations. Structural shifts are considered as a bearing support for the formation of a new quality of social productive forces and

industrial relations;

The unidirectionality of structural shifts in

different countries and economies; There is a significant acceleration in the rate of structural changes in the present stage... If the shift from an agrarian to an industrial society took place over centuries, then the ongoing macro shift from an industrial to a postindustrial (informational) society fits into tens of years;

The features of the economic structure of Russia are revealed,
which are: developmental lag in comparison with

the structure of the economy of industrialized countries (USA, Germany,

Japan); a deep structural crisis taking place against the background of a general economic downturn; the presence of structural deformations generated by the centrally planned economy (monopoly, bloated military-industrial complex, centripetal infrastructure); disintegration of the economic space. The state of the structure of the Russian economy is characterized by

the presence of pre-industrial, post-industrial and industrial

structural elements with a clear dominance of the latter;

It is proved that the features of structural shifts in
economies in transition are: increasing the pace

structural transformations and increased uncertainty in the direction of structural changes, an increase in the number of ways for the further development of the economic structure. Moreover, the progressive tendency does not always win, braking and even backward movement is possible;

A mechanism for the implementation of structural changes in
stable and transitional economy. It means

contradictory interaction of elements of the economic structure, with the help of which structural changes are carried out. With regard to the structure of reproduction, the mechanism for the implementation of structural changes can be defined as a mechanism for resolving the contradiction between the structure of production, distribution, exchange and consumption and the structure of social needs, leading to the emergence of new systemic qualities. The internal content of this mechanism is the system of production relations, which ensures the correspondence of shifts in the structure

production (distribution, exchange and consumption) with shifts in the structure of needs. It has been substantiated that in the conditions of a transitional period, when the influence of subjective (non-economic) factors increases, the contradiction of the mechanism for the implementation of structural changes takes on a specific form of opposition between the objective and subjective principles;

The structure of the mechanism for the implementation of structural

shifts. It consists of several layers, covering the main

elements of productive forces and production relations.

Two sections of the mechanism of structural breaks have been identified:

(the most mobile), subject to the influence of any, including

random reasons; and deep, corresponding to irreversible shifts in the economic structure and structure of needs. A superficial cut of the mechanism for the implementation of structural shifts covers the organizational and economic layer of production

relations, the so-called economic mechanism. This is the visible shell in which deep (technical-technological and socio-economic) structural changes take place. Various types of mechanisms for the implementation of structural shifts (in particular, market and administrative-command), as well as a specific type inherent in the Russian economy in transition, have been identified;

The concept of structural efficiency of the economy has been substantiated,
which consists of two components - static and
dynamic, and appears in the form of economic efficiency

structure and efficiency of structural changes, respectively. The first is characterized by indicators such as growth

13 - labor productivity, capital productivity, decrease in material consumption of products. The efficiency of the economic structure is relevant to a greater extent for studying the stable state of the economy. In contrast, the effectiveness of structural shifts is most applicable for studying the transitional state of the economy and is characterized by indicators of the speed and purposefulness of structural shifts, namely, how quickly they lead to the emergence of new, more progressive qualities of economic

The need for targeted intervention has been proven
states in the processes of structural change in order to achieve
efficient economic structure. Economic systems themselves
do not automatically give an optimal structure
production, nor the necessary technical progress. Required

conscious activity of society to ensure the optimal regime. This is especially true in the context of the transitional economy of Russia. It has been established that structural changes can become an effective factor in fundamental transformations in the transition

economy, bringing it to a qualitatively new level of development only if a comprehensive program of structural changes is developed in accordance with the ideology of strategic planning, prospects for economic growth and social progress.

The degree of scientific novelty of the research results the author is characterized by the fact that:

For the first time in the economic literature, the definition
structural shift is given using the concepts of systemic

approach, as a change in the basic (integral) qualities of the economic system and further development of the development of domestic and foreign scientists on the issue of structural shifts

(conceptual apparatus, content and contradictions, reasons and classification). Shifts in the structure of reproduction are considered as a complex of interrelated elements of productive forces and production relations in an economy in transition. At the same time, the very structure of reproduction is presented by the author in a new way (from the point of view of various sections of the reproductive structure: sectoral, territorial, technological,

ownership structure, production assets, labor force, subordinated in accordance with the relations of reproduction), in contrast to the traditional division into the structure of production,

distribution, exchange and consumption;

put forward a hypothesis about the existence of laws of irreversibility and alternativeness of structural changes in the economy of the transition period;

additional arguments are given for the need to introduce

scientific circulation of the concept of structural efficiency of the economy as a criterion for the implementation of progressive structural changes. The author's interpretation is stated of this concept applied to a stable and transitional economy;

It is specified that the mechanism for the implementation of structural
shifts in a transitional economy differ significantly from
similar mechanism in a stable economy. It is characterized by
violation of connections between subjective and object elements. V
there are no well-established institutions in a transitional economy,

often, business entities lack a strategy and tools for implementing structural changes. Thus, the contradiction between the structure of needs and the structure of reproduction is supplemented and intensified by the contradiction between the subjective and objective principles of the mechanism for the implementation of structural changes, which here appear almost in their original form as opposing subjects and objects of this mechanism.

The practical significance of the study consists in the fact that the obtained theoretical results are brought to the level of specific recommendations for restructuring the structure of the Russian economy. They were used in the development of the forecast and the concept of socio-economic development of the Saratov region for 1996.The proposed principles for the formation of an economic structure, as well as theoretical conclusions regarding structural changes, can be used in the development of a strategy for building a structure in the conditions of the formation of a market economy with a developed government regulation... Separate parts of the dissertation could be used in scientific and teaching circles, since they contain ordered information on the entire set of issues that are part of the problem under consideration.

Approbation of work. The main research results, conclusions and proposals of the dissertation are highlighted in the author's works with a total volume of 2.3 pp. The scientific results obtained in the process of research were reported at the conference of the Volga Methodical Council - Volgograd (1993), Saratov (1995).

The content of structural changes in the economy

The concept of economic structure does not have an unambiguous interpretation. This understanding of structure indicates the interdependence between parts and elements within a single whole. At the same time, the elements themselves do not dissolve as a whole, but have a certain influence on it. Analyzing the relationships between individual elements, it is necessary to point out those of them that decisively influenced economic development in the period under study.

In the broad sense of the word, the concept of structure means a structure, a set of relations, parts and elements that make up a given economic whole. The structure reflects the shape of the arrangement of elements and the nature of the interaction of their sides and properties, it is the result of the movement of the elements of the system1, the result of their organization, ordering. In turn, the elements of the system consist of parts that, at a certain level of consideration, have all the system characteristics. Thus, 5 it is possible to speak both about the structure of the economy as a whole and about the structure of its component parts, that is, about the macro- and microstructure.

In a narrow sense, the structure of the economy is a system of creation consisting of economic elements 1 "The system, says L. Bertalanffy, one of the founders of the general theory of systems, is a complex of elements that are in interaction." (Bertalanffy L. General system theory. Foundations, development, applications, N. Y., 1969.) V. G. Afanasyev considers such a definition insufficient, since it does not reflect the concept of the integrity of the object. (Afanasyev V. G. Systematicity and society. M., 1980.) A. N. Averyanov, in general, suggests considering the system as "a delimited set of interacting elements. 1 (See: A. N. Averyanov. Systemic cognition of the world: methodological problems. M., 1985.) Thus, the system is a whole, consisting of elements that remain interconnected and dependent on each other.Changing one of the elements entails a change in the position of other elements, and hence a change in the system and its structure as a whole. aggregate product and national income. Moreover, it is characterized "first of all, from the quantitative side in accordance with the share and specific weight that this or that industry (this or that enterprise, other elements1) occupies in the system of production, distribution and consumption of the aggregate social product and national income, material and labor costs, etc. The structure of the economy is a complex system of interconnected 1 The elements of the system are called its relatively indivisible parts. In complex systems, the elements themselves act as systems of the lowest order. Elements are divisible in themselves, but they are indivisible in relation to the essential connections of the system of which they are elements. Elements can also be viewed as subsystems. Each system, in turn, is a subsystem of another, more complex system.

Comparative characteristics of structural changes in Russia and industrialized countries

Each relatively long stage in the development of the productive forces corresponds to a specific, organizational - economic and reproductive structure of the economy. In a particular country, the formation of the structure of the economy is also influenced by natural-geographical conditions and features of national-historical development. However, in all industrialized countries, the economic structure has historically evolved in one direction, and the same long-term development trends are inherent in it. According to Yu. Olsevich, "the higher the role of science and information in production, the greater the dynamics of the productive forces different countries becomes not only unidirectional, but also synchronized. In other words, in the same historical periods of time, the production of an increasing number of countries goes through the same qualitative stages of development ... The reasons lie in the common nature of production and needs.

Thus, having outlined the key points of the economic structure of Russia and industrialized countries, it is possible to carry out a comparative analysis by comparing the structural characteristics in unified system coordinates.

In our opinion, such a coordinate system can become the axis of historical development: from the pre-industrial - through the industrial - to the post-industrial socio-economic system, described by a corresponding set of specific structural shifts. As it was shown in the previous paragraph, the development of the economic structure is a non-linear process, here deviations from the optimal direction and even regressive shifts are possible. Therefore, such a study of the direction of structural shifts and the strategy developed on its basis for their implementation in the modern Russian economy will allow avoiding unnecessary repetition of all the bends and dead-end directions in the development of the economic structure, through which the industrially developed countries have already passed.

Modern macrostructural changes in these countries from the point of view of A. Toffler's "third wave" theory are caused by a global technological shift that characterizes a new stage in the material, technical and social development of mankind. Speech in in this case it is about a kind of historical triad: from the agrarian (pre-industrial) civilization - the first wave, to the industrial society - the second wave ”and from it to the information (post-industrial) era - the third wave.1

This can be explained using the division of the economy into three sectors or types of activity, described by G. Kahn ”by W. Brown and L. Martel: primary (extractive), secondary (industrial), tertiary (service and self-service of the primary and secondary sectors) .2 As economic growth of various countries, these sectors are undergoing characteristic changes, which are as follows: - in the pre-industrial era, the primary sector (mainly agricultural) prevails, there are some types of secondary activities (mainly construction) and almost no tertiary activity; - during the period of industrialization, the share of the primary sector increases, but relatively slower than the share of the secondary sector, which is growing faster. The service sectors are also growing, especially at the stage of transition to a post-industrial (information) society, when they outstrip the pace of development of the secondary sector; - finally, in the post-industrial era, the share of the primary and secondary sectors in production gross product decreases markedly compared to the tertiary sector. Trends in this direction observed in the US and FRG economies are shown in diagrams 2,3. From diagram 2 it follows that for 1929 - 1985. in the US economy, the share of the primary sector in GDP production has significantly (almost six times) decreased. The share of the tertiary sector (services) increased by almost 1.5 times. The dynamics of these indicators in the use of labor is even greater: the share of the primary sector decreased from 27.6% in 1929 to 2.4% in 1985, i.e. almost 12 times. The share of the tertiary sector rose from 43.2% to 71% over the same period. The same structural shifts were observed in the German economy (see Chart 3). So, for a period of 103 years from 1882 to 1985, the share of the primary sector decreased from 42 to 5 X, while the share of services increased from 22 to 54%.

Mechanism for the implementation of structural changes in a transitional economy

The implementation of structural changes in the economy occurs, as in any self-organizing system, through the appropriate mechanism. Yu.M. Osipov defines the mechanism as a "system of organization of the system." (K. Marx, A. Marshall, N.A. Voznesensky, S.G. Strumilin, V. Leontiev, J.M. Keynes). Separate approaches to the problem of the mechanism of realization of structural shifts are available in the works of N.D. Kondratyev, SM. Menshikov. However, in general, this issue has not been comprehensively reflected in the economic literature.

By the mechanism for the implementation of structural changes, in general, we mean the contradictory interaction of elements of the economic structure, with the help of which structural changes are carried out. With regard to the structure of reproduction, the mechanism for the implementation of structural shifts can be defined as a mechanism for coordinating shifts in the structure of production, distribution, exchange and consumption with shifts in the structure of needs. productive forces and production relations. But in our opinion, at least two sections of the mechanism of structural shifts can be distinguished: superficial (the most mobile), subject to the influence of any, including accidental, reasons; and deep, corresponding to irreversible shifts in the economic structure and structure of needs (see Figure 4).

The diagram shows that a superficial cut of the mechanism for the implementation of structural changes covers the most mobile organizational and economic layer of production relations, the so-called economic mechanism. This is the visible shell in which deep (socio-economic) structural changes take place.

Through the economic mechanism, society actively influences the economic structure, "bringing the organization of the social division of labor, specialization, forms of economic ties in accordance with the new level of development of productive forces. The central problem that is being solved here is to ensure the adequacy of organizational and economic relations and ties (structural shell ) the achieved level and development trends of the productive forces ".1

As can be seen from Scheme 4, any structural shift begins with a change in organizational and economic relations, the number and technological relationship of fixed assets, labor, etc. However, not every change of this kind leads to profound shifts in the structure of economic relationships and the laws of these relationships, as well as in the structure of social needs. Surface shifts are reversible, while depth shifts represent certain milestones in historical development economics (primarily related to technology and technology).

Specifying our earlier definition, we can add that the mechanism for the implementation of structural changes is, first of all, a mechanism for resolving the contradiction between the structure of production, distribution, exchange and consumption and the structure of social needs, leading to the emergence of new systemic qualities. The internal content of this mechanism is the system of production relations, which ensures that shifts in the structure of production (distribution, exchange and consumption) correspond to shifts in the structure of needs. Thus, the main contradiction in the mechanism for implementing shifts in the structure of reproduction, in our opinion, is the contradiction between the structure of production (distribution, exchange and consumption) and the structure of needs.

Let us illustrate this contradiction using the production opportunity curve (see graph 6). Let us depict a hypothetical curve (AB) on a two-coordinate field, showing various alternative variants of the structure of needs for goods A and B. The actual state of the production structure (structure of production capabilities) will be denoted as a curve (АіВі). In our opinion, the curve (AiBi) will fluctuate around the curve (AB), however, never coinciding with it, reflecting the existing in reality constant discrepancy between the structure of needs and production (distribution, exchange and consumption). The conformity of the production structure is achieved on the graph at point C, if it exists at all, as is the case with the curve (A2B2).

A strategy for implementing structural changes in the Russian economy

In modern conditions in Russia, the following motives can be distinguished that induce structural changes in the economy. I. At the level of an enterprise (firm): 1) effective demand (according to a survey of managers of 214 enterprises, the solvency of consumers (61% of respondents) has the strongest influence on the structure of production); 1 2) tough competition in the domestic and foreign markets; II. At the national economic level: 1) providing the population with food and consumer goods; 2) ensuring priority for those industries and areas of production that are carriers of technological progress and are capable of becoming the locomotives of structural renewal of the economy; 3) increasing the degree of participation in the international division of labor. Structural shifts are expressed in changes in the social division of labor - both in the national economy of a given country and in the world economy. At the same time, the dynamics are subject to change sectoral structure, the complex of proportions of the national economy is undergoing evolution. Changes in the structure of national economies have become an element of competition in highly developed countries. Each country is trying to get ahead of the other in terms of the pace of modernization and the creation of a highly efficient economic structure, thus entering a new stage in the development of social production as soon as possible. The most important factor forcing structural changes in modern conditions is the international division of labor. In a competitive environment, it leads to a redistribution of profits between the participants in this division. Changes in the international division of labor are causing the emergence of highly productive competitive exporters, which weaken the former positions of other countries. This is most often the result of insufficient ability to adapt their production resources, economic structure to the new requirements of the international market. As you know, the commodity structure of exports and imports is formed over a long time and should be based on the production structure. A delay in reorientation can lead to the relegation of a country to the background, a weakening of its position in the world market, and often to isolation and exclusion of a given country from the international division of labor. Thus, according to J. Harris, 1 it was due to the structural factor that, starting from 1960, the United States lost world leadership in 12 key industries, while Japan, on the contrary, strengthened its competitiveness in 8 industries without losing its position in any one. Meanwhile, one cannot fail to notice the obvious advantages of Russia, which allow its economy to organically fit into the structure of the world economic community: - cheap labor in combination with a sufficiently high level of its qualifications; - Availability own sources raw materials and enterprises for its primary processing with a relatively developed transport infrastructure(in particular railway transport); - potentially large capacity of the domestic consumer market.