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Methods and types of forecasts. The main types of forecasts Test questions and tasks

The main criterion of the typology is functional, from the point of view of which forecasts are divided into two main types: exploratory (exploration according to E. Yanch, research, trend, genetic, etc.) and target (normative, program) forecasts.

Search forecast - determination of possible states of a phenomenon in the future. A conditional continuation in the future of the development trends of the phenomenon under study in the past and present is assumed, abstracting from possible decisions, actions on the basis of which can radically change the trends. V in this case the forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the existing trends continue? Such forecasts are also called variant (scenario) calculations.

Regulatory forecast - determination of ways and timing of achieving possible states of the phenomenon, taken as a goal. This forecast answers the question: what are the ways to achieve the desired?

The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to the observed trends.

Both types of forecasts act simultaneously in practice as forecasting approaches and are used together. In their combination, the incentive role of forecasting as a planning tool for achieving the set goals is clearly manifested.

By the lead period- the period of time for which the forecast is calculated, distinguishes between operational (current), short-term, medium-term, long-term and long-term (super-long-term) forecasts.

The operational forecast is designed for the future, during which no significant changes are expected in the development of the research object - neither quantitative nor qualitative.

Short-term - for the future only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mainly qualitative. The medium-term forecast covers the prospect between short-term and long-term with the predominance of quantitative changes over qualitative ones, long-term (super-long-term) - for the future, when such significant qualitative changes are expected that in essence one can speak only of the most general prospects for the development of the object.

Operational forecasts contain, as a rule, detailed quantitative assessments, short-term - general quantitative, medium-term - quantitative-quality and long-term - general qualitative assessments.

In socio-economic forecasts, the following time scale is empirically established: operational forecasts - up to one month, short-term - up to one year, medium-term - for several (usually up to five) years, long-term - for a period of more than five and up to fifteen-twenty years, long-term - beyond twenty years old.

In countries with economies in transition, short-term forecasts are most in demand both by analysts and state structures (government, parliament) for different levels management. Medium-term forecasts for the period correspond to the time of organ functioning government controlled... An example of a long-term projection is the results of demographic projections for the period up to 2050, according to which India will surpass China in population.

By object of research different natural science, innovation and social science (social in the broadest sense of the word) forecasts. In natural science forecasts, the relationship between prediction and pre-indication is insignificant, close or practically close to zero due to the impossibility of controlling the object, so that, in principle, only search forecasting is possible with an orientation towards the most accurate possible unconditional prediction of the future state of the phenomenon. In social science forecasts, this relationship is so significant that it can give the effect of self-existence or, on the contrary, self-destruction of forecasts by people's actions based on goals, plans, programs, decisions (including those made taking into account the forecasts made). In this regard, a combination of search and regulatory developments is necessary, i.e. conditional predictions with a focus on improving management efficiency. Technological forecasts occupy an intermediate position in this respect.

Details of the subtypes of forecasts are given in the "Forecasting workbook" (1, pp. 13-15). Let's just note that economic, social, environmental forecasts belong to the group of social science forecasts.

By the scale of forecasting allocate: macroeconomic ( national economy) and structural (intersectoral, intersectoral, interregional) forecasts, forecasts of the development of individual complexes, sectors and regions, forecasts of economic entities, as well as individual industries and products. Note that the objects of macroeconomics are more stable and inertial in their development in comparison with the objects of microeconomics.

The division of forecasts depending on the nature of objects is associated with various aspects of the reproductive process. On this basis, the following economic forecasts are distinguished: development industrial relations, socio-economic prerequisites and consequences of technological progress, dynamics of the economic system (rates, factors and structure), reproduction of labor resources, employment, economic use of natural resources, investments, living standards of the population, income and prices, consumer demand, foreign economic relations, etc. etc. It should be borne in mind that the separation and isolated consideration of individual elements of the system are untenable from a methodological point of view.

Currently, there are over 150 different forecasting methods, of which 15-20 are used in practice.

In the process of economic forecasting, both general scientific methods and approaches to research are used, as well as specific methods inherent in socio-economic forecasting. Common methods include the following:

the historical method consists in considering each phenomenon in the interconnection of its historical forms;

an integrated method consists in considering the phenomena in their interdependence, using for this research methods not only this, but also other sciences that study these phenomena;

the systemic method involves the study of quantitative and qualitative patterns of the course of probabilistic processes in complex economic systems;

the structural method allows you to establish the causes of the phenomenon under study, to explain its structure;

the systemic-structural method presupposes, on the one hand, the consideration of the system as a dynamically developing whole, and on the other hand, the dismemberment of the system into its constituent structural elements and their consideration in interaction.

Specific methods of economic forecasting are wholly and completely related to economic forecasting. Among the tools of economic forecasting, an important role is played by economic and mathematical methods, methods of economic and mathematical modeling, statistical extrapolation, etc.

The typology of forecasts is based on various criteria and features. Among them are the following:

1) the scale of forecasting;

2) lead time or forecast time horizon;

3) the nature of the object;

4) functional sign;

5) the degree of determinism (certainty) of forecasting objects;

6) the nature of the development of objects of forecasting in time;

7) the degree of information security of forecasting objects.

By the scale of forecasting, there are:

macroeconomic forecast;

structural (intersectoral and interregional) forecast;

forecasts for the development of national economic complexes (energy, investment, agro-industrial, etc.);

sectoral and regional forecasts;

forecasts for the development of individual enterprises, joint-stock companies, as well as individual industries and products.

According to the lead time or time horizon, all forecasts are subdivided into:

operational (up to 1 month);

short-term (from 1 month to 1 year);

medium-term (from 1 to 5 years);

long-term (from 5 years to 15-20 years);

long-term (over 20 years).

The forecast time horizon can be defined as a period of time within which changes in the volume of the predicted object appear commensurate with its initial (including forecast) value, and as the period during which the forecast object is influenced by the decisions used today, i.e. e. at the time of forecast development.

With regard to comprehensive national economic forecasts, the following classification has been adopted: short-term forecasts up to 2-3 years, medium-term up to 5-7 years, long-term up to 15-20 years. Each of these types of forecasts is based on those stable cycles and processes in the development of the economy, the duration of which fits into the corresponding time horizon.

The developed forecasts are based on certain reserves: short-term - on the available types of products and financial resources; medium-term - for the accumulated investment potential; long-term - for certain areas of scientific and technological progress and new technologies.

By the nature of the objects under study, the following forecasts are distinguished:

development of industrial relations;

development of scientific and technological progress and its consequences;

dynamics of the national economy;

reproduction of fixed assets and capital investments;

economic use of natural resources;

reproduction of the population and labor resources;

the standard of living of the population;

external economic relations, etc.

On a functional basis, forecasts are divided into two types:

search forecast, which is based on the conditional continuation into the future of the development trend of the studied object in the past and present, and abstraction from conditions that can change these trends;

normative forecast, which is the definition of ways and timing of achieving possible states of the forecasting object, taken as a goal.

According to the degree of determinism, the following forecasting objects can be distinguished:

deterministic (definite or predictable), the description of which can be presented in deterministic form without information loss essential for the problem of forecasting;

stochastic (probabilistic), in the analysis and forecasting of which, taking into account random components is necessary to meet the requirements of the accuracy and reliability of the forecast;

mixed, the description of which is possible partly in deterministic, partly in stochastic form.

By the nature of development over time, forecasting objects can be divided into:

discrete (discontinuous) objects, the regular component (trend) of which changes in jumps at fixed times;

aperiodic objects with a description of the regular component in the form of a continuous function of time;

cyclic objects with a regular component in the form of a periodic function of time.

According to the degree of information security, forecasting objects can be subdivided into:

objects with full provision of quantitative information, for which retrospective quantitative information is available in an amount sufficient to implement the extrapolation method, or the statistical method;

objects with incomplete provision of quantitative information;

objects with high-quality retrospective information;

objects with a complete lack of retrospective information (as a rule, these are projects under design and construction). Puzikov, O.S. A course of lectures on socio-economic forecasting / O.S. Puzikov. - Rostov n / a: Growth. state builds. un-t. 2002 .-- p. 14

So, social forecasting is a kind of ability to anticipate, analyze the situation and its expected course and changes in the future. On the basis of social forecasting, it is possible to develop and substantiate specific and achievable goals, priorities economic development, expansion of priority social tasks, identification of the most probable and cost-effective options for solving long-term and medium-term problems. Currently, there are more than 100 different methods of research and forecasting the development of the economy, although about 20 are practically used. Among the most noticeable are trend (extrapolation) methods based on the continuation of the trends that have developed in the past in the future, as well as economic and mathematical modeling. Social forecasting includes the development of both search and targeted forecasts. Forecasts are developed for the country, territories, types and industries of production, problems, etc.

The essence and basic concepts of planning and forecasting

Subject studying the course of forecasting and planning the economy is the knowledge of the possible states of the functioning of the object in the future, the study of patterns and methods of developing economic forecasts. Object study is the socio-economic system as a whole. At the macro level, the object of study is the national economy. At the micro level - the production and economic activities of the company. Forecasting method - a set of techniques and methods of thinking that allow, on the basis of retrospective data, to deduce a judgment of a certain certainty regarding the future development of the economy. According to the degree of specificity and the nature of the impact on the course of the processes under study, the following are distinguished forms of foresight: 1. A hypothesis is an assumption about the possible development in the future of those processes by which the existing level of cognition is very incomplete on the basis of the known regularities of the accumulated experience of the logic of change. 2. Forecast is a complex of calculation and analytical substantiations about the future state of the object under consideration, the system of the phenomenon in quantitative and qualitative form. 3. Plan – a document that contains a system of indicators and a set of various measures to address socio-economic problems. It reflects the goals, priorities, resources, sources of their support, the order and timing of implementation.

Methodological principles forecasting and planning

Methodological principles- initial provisions, fundamental rules for the formation and justification of forecasts and plans. The most important are the following:

The principle of purposefulness requires that the plan clearly defines the goals to be achieved and the tasks that need to be addressed.

The certainty principle requires that specific terms, performers, responsible persons, values ​​of indicators be defined in the plan. Otherwise, the plan will not be fulfilled.

Continuity principle that is, the development of forecasts and plans should be carried out continuously. The principle of alternativeness requires multivariate forecast and planned development (alternatives).

The principle of efficiency... requires to carry out pl-e thus, in order to get a larger effect at a lower cost. Of all possible options the most effective one must be selected.
Optimality principle... Of all the possible options, the best one should be selected from the point of view of a given criterion of optimality and given constraints.
Adequacy principle assumes that the methods and models used in pr-ny and planning reflect the real processes taking place in the economy. The model can be simplified, but it should not oversimplify, much less distort reality.
The principle of social focus requires taking into account and solving social. problems, assumes that Pr and Plan of economic development should proceed from the interests of individuals and society. At the state level, the principle of social. focus should be complemented by the principle of social. justice, which is implemented through the social system. guarantees.
The principle of ecological orientation requires taking into account and solving in the course of pr-I and PL-I issues related to ecology, with the human impact on the environment.
The named principles of pr-i and pl-i are basic (but not exhaustive) and underlie specific methods and models of forecasting and planning.



System of indicators of plans-forecasts

Indicator- quantitative expression, economic category process or phenomenon. Depending on the level of economic management, there are: macroeconomic indicators, sectoral indicators, regional. By the scale of forecasting, there are: - macroeconomic forecasts, - intersectoral and interregional forecasts, - forecasts development of national economic complexes, - sectoral and regional forecasts, - forecasts of economic links; - forecasts of enterprises, associations, individual industries and products. In the temporal aspect, forecasts are divided into: - long-term (from 5 to 15 - 20 years), - medium-term (from 3 to 5), - short-term (from one month to a year), - operational (up to 1 month - for every laziness, week, decade). In forecasting and planning, all indicators are divided into natural and cost, absolute and relative, quantitative and qualitative, approved, indicative and calculated.

Requirements for the indicators of the plan: - indicators of P&P, accounting and statistics must have methodological unity and comparability, which allows you to check the progress of the plan
- the complexity of the system of indicators (should cover various aspects of social reproduction) - the system of indicators should take into account the specifics of the industries
- should orient the economy towards improving the efficiency and quality of work. Economic forecasts characterize the dynamics of economic development, structural breaks, foreign economic relations, territorial shifts in the distribution of productive forces, the reproduction of fixed assets and the investments necessary for this.

The essence of directive planning

Directive- obligatory, rigid, subject to execution, presupposes the use, first of all, of command and administrative levers for the obligatory implementation of the established goals and objectives. The obligatory condition is implemented through the publication of the corresponding administrative and administrative documents - laws, decrees, orders, orders, after which the practical implementation of the established tasks, current and final control of the degree of implementation is carried out using measures of administrative and other IMPACT to the performers, depending on the final result achieved. Directive plans are usually targeted and overly detailed.

The main features of strategic and indicative planning

Indicative planning differs in that the goals of socio-economic development are defined in the form of specific parameters (indicators), the achievement of which is ensured by specially developed, mainly indirect, economic measures state influence on the behavior of participants in market relations. The main indicators are: 1) the characteristics of the growth rates, changes in the structure and efficiency of the economy, the development of foreign economic relations; 2) indicators of dynamics financial system and money circulation, market development valuable papers, price movements; 3) indicators of changes in employment and living standards of the population, the development of the social sphere, etc. For business entities, the indicators of the state indicative plan are only advisory in nature. Strategic planning should be about defining long-term overarching goals and establishing ways to achieve them. When drawing up a strategic plan, it is necessary to take into account the most probable changes in the external and internal environment of the planned object, to develop complexes of measures aimed at mitigating the effects of negative factors and increasing the influence of positive factors. There is a lot of work to be done to determine ways of solving organizational, methodological and resource problems that arise when creating a system of strategic planning at the federal and regional levels... Tactical (operational) planning extends to particular issues, the solution of which is necessary to achieve strategic goals. It is carried out in the form of developing short-term plans for the development of specific elements of social infrastructure, individual aspects of the development of economic systems.

Classification of forecasts

Different researchers offer different signs of forecast classification.

1. By the purpose of development forecasts are divided into search and regulatory. Search engines are based on clarifying the future development of the studied phenomenon while maintaining the trend of the past. Regulatory take into account predetermined goals and certain ways and timing of their achievement. They are developed from a given state in the future, taking into account current trends. 2. On the time horizon - operational forecasts that are developed for up to one month and contain only quantitative indicators; short term forecasts developed for a period of up to one year and containing general quantitative indicators; mid-term- developed for a period of 1-5 years and containing both quantitative and general qualitative assessments; long-term- developed for a period of 5-15 years and containing general quantity and general quality indicators; long-term- are being developed for a period of over 20 years and contain general quality characteristics. 3. By content:economic- provide information on the development of any economic indicator; demographic- cover the movement of the population and reproduction of labor resources, the level and structure of employment of the population, etc .; social- provide information about the level and quality of life of the population; ecological- gives information about changes in the environmental situation in the country, city, region, etc .; natural resource forecast- contains information about the needs of society in natural resources and the possibilities of their use, covers all types of social reproduction and the natural environment; scientific and technical- consider the achievements of scientific and technological progress. 4. By development methods share :. Intuitive rely on information obtained from expert estimates. In some situations, when forecasting, only these forecasts can be used (for example, when the forecasting object is new and there is no statistical information about it, the forecasting object is complex and many factors influence its development). Formalized based on factual information about the object. Statistical data are processed by specialists using formalized methods. 5. By the scale of forecasting: macroeconomic forecasts(the object of forecasting is the country as a whole); structural projections(interregional, intersectoral, etc.); forecast for the development of industrial complexes; regional forecasts(the object of forecasting is the region); forecast of primary links of the economy(object - enterprise, firm); global forecasts(the object is the world as a whole, large world regions).

Macroeconomic forecasting and planning

In an unstable economy, particular importance should be given to macroeconomic forecasting and planning. The prefix "macro" means that forecasting and planning are classified at the highest level state structure management, and as its object is used the economic system as a whole, the national economy. Subjects macroeconomic forecasting and planning are the central planners. Macroeconomic planning involves the definition of the development goals of the economic system and its individual elements as a whole, the allocation of priorities, the preparation of solutions for the center and the development of measures to achieve goals in the interaction of the lower levels of the management system, both among themselves and with the Center. Consequently, forecast calculations should be carried out at the macro level and the most effective options for the development of the economy should be determined, as well as a system of measures should be developed, including the formation of structural, innovation, financial and budgetary, monetary, price, social, regional and foreign economic policies. The system of forecast calculations should include forecasts of macroeconomic indicators, primarily the gross national product, forecasts of performance indicators characterizing the quality economic growth(material consumption, capital productivity, labor productivity), forecasts of the structure of the economy. At the macro level, it is also necessary to carry out forecast calculations of economic potential, employment, demand for products, develop forecasts of investments, exports and imports, balance of payments, prices, exchange rate, inflation, government operations when forming the state budget, social development, real incomes of the population, purchasing funds and commodity resources, and a number of others.

Micro-level forecasting and planning

At the micro level- at the level of the enterprise, organization (firm) - the objects of forecasting and planning are: demand, production of products (performance of services), sales volume, demand for material and labor resources, production and sales costs, prices, income of the enterprise, its technical development. Subjects of forecasting and planning- planning and financial bodies of the enterprise, marketing and technical departments. Forecast plans are developed by the enterprise and by its structural divisions: workshops, sections, services. Plans are formed for the future, short-term (year, quarter, month) and operational (day, decade). In the transition to market relations, special importance was attached to business plans. A business plan is developed to develop a strategy for an enterprise, assess its financial position, determine investment needs, attract funds and potential partners. Everyone needs it: bankers, project investors, managers and employees of the enterprise in order to know the prospects and check ideas for reality. Foreign businessmen have long realized that a worthwhile commercial event cannot be started without a business plan. Business plan- a document that analyzes the opportunities for starting or expanding a business in a particular situation and gives a clear idea of ​​how the management of the given enterprise intends to use these opportunities. The business plan is divided into a number of sections.

Business plan of the enterprise, its purpose, functions

Business plan is a document that describes all the main aspects of the future of the company or new activity, contains an analysis of all the problems that it may face, as well as ways to solve these problems. A correctly drawn up business plan answers the question: is it worth investing in the business at all and will the project bring income that will pay off all the costs of manpower and resources? It is very important to do this on paper in accordance with certain requirements and to carry out special calculations - this helps to see future problems and understand whether they are surmountable and where it is necessary to insure in advance. A business plan is a complex document that justifies and evaluates the project from the standpoint of all the main features that distinguish the project as a strategic decision from current management activities. "Project" refers to a set of interrelated activities designed to create new products or services. The novelty and uniqueness of the project is limited by the time frame, outside of which the project loses its value and becomes unclaimed by the external environment. To create and implement a project, limited resources are required: labor, material, financial, technical. If the project is created and implemented in competitive environment, then to substantiate its effectiveness requires the development of a business plan. In the absence of competition, the project initiator is limited to a feasibility study. The core value of a business plan is determined by the fact that it: - makes it possible to determine the viability of a firm in a competitive environment; - contains a guideline for how the firm should develop; - serves as an important justification tool for obtaining financial support from external investors. It should be noted that a business plan is a promising document and it is recommended to draw up it for the first year on a monthly basis, for the second - on a quarterly basis, and only starting from the third year it is possible to limit oneself to annual indicators. The development forecast includes: title page, content, descriptive part of the development forecast, applications, reference and other materials confirming the initial data.

Methods for expert assessments of forecasting and planning

The main idea is to build a rational procedure for the intuitive-logical thinking of a person in combination with a number of methods for evaluating and processing the results obtained. The essence- the forecast is based on the opinion of a specialist or a team of specialists, based on professional, scientific and practical experience. Distinguish 1. Individual - based on the use of the opinions of expert specialists of the relevant profile. Methods have become widespread interview, analytical, screenwriting; Interview method- a conversation between a forecaster and an expert according to the question-answer scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, poses questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the predicted object. Success depends on the ability of an expert to give an impromptu opinion on various issues.

Analytical method- independent work of an expert on the analysis of trends, assessment of the state and development paths of the predicted object. The expert can use all the information he needs about the forecast object. He draws up his conclusions in the form of a memorandum. The main advantage is the ability to maximize the individual abilities of an expert. But it is not very suitable for forecasting complex systems and developing a strategy due to the limited knowledge of one specialist-expert in related fields of knowledge.

Scripting method should be attributed to both individual and collective expert assessments. Based on the definition of the logic of a process or phenomenon in time under various conditions. It involves the establishment of a sequence of events developing during the transition from the existing situation to the future state of the object.

2. Collective peer reviews - ("brainstorming") consists in using the creative potential of specialists in the "brainstorming" of a problem situation, which first implements the generation of ideas, and then their destructuring (destruction, criticism) with the advancement of counter-ideas and the development of an agreed point of view.

Method "635"- one of the types of brainstorming. Delphi method- one of the first attempts to develop a more reasonable and rigorous procedure for expert forecasting

Formalized forecasting and planning methods

Formalized methods include extrapolation methods, economic and mathematical methods, balance method, normative, etc. 1) The basis extrapolation methods forecasting is the study of empirical series. An empirical series is a set of observations obtained sequentially in time, the function is the simplest mathematical model that reflects the dependence of the predicted object on the factors influencing it. Depending on, there can be one-factor y = f (x), multi-factor y = f (x1, x2, ... xn), the dependence can be linear and non-linear. The calculation of parameters A and B for a specific dependence function is carried out using the least squares method and its modification. The essence of the least squares method is: the required parameters of the function should provide a minimum of the sum of squares of deviations of the actual and theoretical levels of effective indicators. S = ∑ (y-yh) ² → min. 2) Economic and mathematical methods imply the construction of a mathematical model of the socio-economic process of its solution and the logical interpretation of the result. Modeling can be experimental, iconic, and abstract. Economic and mathematical models include optimal planning models, input-output balance models, correlation-regression analysis, matrix models, economic and statistical models, decision-making models, simulation models, and network planning models. 3) Balance method- is to link the needs of the country, region, industry, enterprise in different types products, material, labor and financial resources with the ability to produce products and sources of resources. This method involves the development of a balance sheet, which is a system of indicators in which one part characterizing resources by sources of income is equal to the other, showing the distribution in all areas of their expenditures. The resource part of the balance is formed after determining the needs. Resources are calculated across all revenue sources. Once the needs have been identified, a needs-to-resource linkage is developed. 4) The essence normative method consists in the feasibility study of forecasts, plans, programs using norms and standards. The rate characterizes the scientifically grounded measure of the resource per unit of production in the accepted units of measurement. For the calculation, the following expression is usually used: Q = V * N, where Q is the desired value; V-number of products, number of inhabitants, etc .; N-norm. Norms and norms are divided into separate groups and types: norms of labor costs; production rates; time norms; norms for the use of material resources; consumption rates of raw materials, fuel, electricity; financial norms; Social norms; environmental standards.

According to the scale of forecasting, they are distinguished:

  • a) forecasting the development of a particular industry (for example, animal husbandry). At the same time, tendencies and patterns of its development are revealed in general, as well as in individual subsectors (for example, dairy and beef cattle breeding). The forecast for the development of the industry in the territorial context is independently constructed;
  • b) simultaneous forecasting of several interconnected industries (for example, forecast Food Industry includes forecasts for tea, confectionery, bakery, macaroni, cereals, etc.).
  • c) simultaneous forecasting of all industries within the sectoral complex of the country (for example, forecasting the agro - industrial complex).

in each scientific discipline, forecasting is carried out for different periods of time and therefore for each of them the gradation according to the lead period should be different. the closest to political forecasts is the classification of forecasts adopted in the economy, where there are short-term (up to 1 year), medium-term (up to 5 years) and long-term (over 5 years) forecasts

Forecasting methods and their role in social management

There are normative and exploratory forecasting.

Normative forecasting is a projection into the future of the original model in accordance with the specified goals and norms according to specified criteria. Search forecast - a forecast, the content of which is to determine the possible states of the forecasting object in the future.

Forecasting methods are as follows.

Extrapolation is the propagation of trends established in the past to the future period.

Modeling - the study of objects of knowledge on their models; construction and study of models of real-life objects, processes or phenomena in order to obtain explanations of these phenomena, as well as to predict the phenomena of interest to the researcher.

Expert assessment is a procedure for obtaining an assessment of a problem based on the group opinion of specialists (experts). The joint opinion is more accurate than the individual opinion of each of the specialists.

The scenario method is one of the possible implementations of a situational approach to decision-making in an organization. The method is based on a systemic methodological concept and is a specially organized iterative research procedure for constructing scenarios in order to select the most appropriate management alternative. A scenario is a description of a picture of the future, consisting of coordinated, logically interconnected events and a sequence of steps, with a certain probability, leading to the predicted end state.

Most often, in forecasting in the management activities of the sphere of social protection, education, health care, housing and communal services, the method of extrapolation and scenario methods are used.

Stages of predictive studies.

The first stage is a qualitative assessment (a trend is predicted - a decline, an increase, a deviation from the median equilibrium point in one direction or another, etc.).

The second stage is the development of a quantitative forecast, and, first in the form of an interval, and then a point estimate. Further, a sequence of calculations is used that allows you to deploy predictive studies - from more general to more specific.

The third stage is the final forecast based on multidimensional techniques for checking the reliability of the forecast results.

By the scale of forecasting, there are: 1)

macroeconomic and structural forecasts; 2)

complexes of the national economy (forecasts for the development of housing and communal services, the health care system, education, culture and art, living standards, etc.); 3)

sectoral and regional forecasts;

According to the lead time, forecasts are subdivided into:

operational - up to one year;

short-term - from one to three years;

medium-term - from five to ten years;

long-term - from ten to twenty years;

long-term - over twenty years.

According to the directions of forecasting, forecasts are divided into search and target.

The search forecast is based on the conditional continuation into the future of the development trends of the object under study in the past and present. Its task is to find out how the object under study will develop while maintaining the existing trends. Examples of such a forecast are forecasts of the number of marriages, divorces in society, unemployment, etc. the main forecasting method is extrapolation.

According to modern classification search forecasting can be of two types:

a) traditional (or extrapolative);

b) innovative (or alternative).

The traditional method assumes that the development of an object (for example, the social sphere) occurs and will proceed smoothly and continuously, i.e. all the trends in the development of the forecast object identified in the past will be retained. Therefore, the forecast can be a simple projection (extrapolation) of the past into the future.

If at the same time the forecast is not based on the analysis of the influence of various factors on the development indicators, i.e. on multivariate analysis, and uses the dependence of indicators only on time (ie trends in indicators), then such a forecast is called "naive".

Basically "naive" forecast is used in stable economic systems to forecast macroeconomic indicators (employment, etc.).

The innovative approach, in contrast to the traditional one, is based on the fact that the development of an object does not proceed smoothly and continuously, but abruptly and intermittently. An innovative approach is also called alternative, as it assumes that there are many options for the future development of the object. But it must be remembered that the traditional approach, excluding only the "naive" forecast, assumes a variance in the formulation. For example, the development of options that differ in different values ​​of the predicted factors affecting the indicator under study, but not amenable to the influence of various measures provided for in the forecast. V agriculture- this is the weather (drought, favorable days, early frosts, etc.).

Target forecast is forecasting from the future to the present, as if forecasting “in reverse”. In this case, the desired final parameters of development (goals) are first established, and then the necessary financial, material and labor resources... Such forecasting is also called normative-target. For example, a forecast is made of the dynamics of consumption of meat products by the population of the region at the existing physiological norms of consumption. The main forecasting method is interpolation.

Target forecast, in contrast to the search one, is developed on the basis of predetermined desired goals. Its task is to determine the ways and timing of achieving possible states of the forecasting object in the future, taken as a goal. While the search forecast is based on the determination of the future state of the object from its past and present, the target forecast is carried out in the reverse order: from a given state in the future, the availability of material, financial and other resources necessary to achieve the set goal, to existing trends and their changes in the light of the goal. This forecasting is also called normative, because the goals that are set are often based on standards.

Target forecasting is usually used in cases where there is not enough information about the development of an object in the past, and, therefore, it is impossible not only to carry out multivariate analysis and modeling, but even to determine progressive development trends.