What's in store for the dollar c. Latest news

Are Russians constantly racking their brains over what awaits the dollar in 2018? Indeed, in many respects, the scenario of the development of the economy of our country depends on this international monetary value. The thoughts of a larger number of experts are nevertheless aimed at a positive resolution of the economic situation in the Russian Federation. An anti-crisis solution has already been outlined in the circles of the authorities. And by historical standards, the crisis cannot continue indefinitely, regression always replaces progress. This is the law of life. Ordinary people simply adapt to it, great minds and people directly or indirectly influence what is happening.

In Russia today there are often depressed or aggressive people. And this is not surprising, because everything, from products to services, is constantly getting more expensive, and the national currency is still not stable.

Forecasts for the dollar / ruble exchange rate are the main indicators of state stability in the near future. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on currency fluctuations. The leading experts of the country and the world put forward hypotheses, draw graphic drawings on the development of the American currency.

2010 was a very important year for the dollar bill, then it began to rise in price in the financial market. Over the past years, the currency has risen by about 40 percent. The wines are here in the Syrian and Ukrainian situations. The global crisis of the world economy only pushed the US currency to move up.

After oil prices fell, the Russian currency fell, and the fall continued until 2016. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is constantly taking action to regulate the exchange rate, but it is quite difficult to stop the dollar's growth.

Unpleasant consequences for the Russian economy were brought about by the sanctions regulations. And today our authorities and fellow citizens hope for the promises of the new American president to lift sanctions for our country.

Today in the politics and economy of the world community, the situation is not good for the dollar bill. The American financiers of the last century had an ingenious plan to carry out a huge emission of money. The issuance of loans and life at the expense of virtual money like a virus spread throughout the world, and the beginning was laid by US banks. Initially, only citizens of the country could use virtual finance, but they parted with real money, on which a percentage was imposed. The creation of a monetary fund made it possible to lend to the world community as well. This resourcefulness saved the dollar, and it retained its position in the world of finance.

The outlook for the ruble against the dollar is very important today. The powers confront each other with the help of a currency struggle. Initially, it was interesting to stock brokers, traders and dealers, but in our days of information boom and high awareness and literacy of the population of the whole world, currency forecasts occupy the minds of most of the citizens.

Dollars are closely related to supply and demand. These factors directly affect its assessment. The laws of the market are such that if there is a lot of supply, the demand decreases, and the price value of the bill falls. Whether this will happen to the dollar in the coming year, no one can answer in monosyllables. Analysts' forecasts for the dollar exchange rate in 2018 are divided in opinions, there are both positive and negative positions. There is talk that if the dollar falls, it could lead to a new round of the global economic crisis, but on a large scale, comparable to the once experienced "Great Depression".

But in the last century, the American currency did not have the same value and impact on the budgets of developing countries as it does now. With the fall of the US currency, third world countries will also decline. And the United States will be on the brink of bankruptcy.

International trade is conducted in dollars, so the question of how much the dollar will cost in 2018 will not lose its relevance for a long time. And the same factor keeps the US currency from falling. As long as the ruble is less than the dollar in the financial market, the dollars will have their weight. Even for the Russian state, the dollar collapse is not profitable, because in this case the entire financial and trading system of the Russian Federation will suffer.

Time will show whether the dollar will fall in 2018, in theory everything can be, in reality everything is somewhat more complicated. The monetary unit of America has created a good competition for the euro. But more was expected from this currency. They did not take into account only that the monetary unit is not tied to a specific country, which means that there is no one to follow it, unlike the Americans, who are responsible for the position of the dollar.

If the level of world trade declines, the number of trade operations decreases, then the US currency will be worth less. Gold and oil play a decisive role in the international market. If these two products increase in price, the exchange dollar value decreases. This can be explained by the large consumption of these goods by America.

People are wondering what the dollar exchange rate will be for a reason. The sanctions policy has increased the dollar rate in tandem with the ruble on the stock exchange. However, there was an imbalance in the dollar-euro pair, and the “American” loses.

Domestic scientists have a report on "Operational monitoring of the situation with the Russian economy." It provides information on the estimated average dollar exchange rate for 2018 at 57 rubles. per unit of currency. This suggests a positive dynamic in economic and public affairs.

What awaits the dollar in 2018 in Russia is discussed by experts, who most likely assumed several positive shifts in the economy:

1. Under the baseline scenario, the elite oil brand Urals will stop at $ 40 per barrel. Judging by the calculations, this year the "American" estimate will stop at an average of 67 ruble bills, in 2018 the value will drop to 62 rubles.
2. According to the optimistic scenario, by next year the price tag of an elite oil brand will increase to $ 60 per barrel. This will entail a strengthening of the ruble's position. The 2017 indicator will be close to 60 rubles apiece. In the 18th, the value of the dollar will be reduced to 57 rubles. 20 kopecks for a dollar bill.
3. What will happen to the dollar exchange rate next year, according to the pessimistic forecast, also depends on the price tag for Urals oil, which in this scenario should have an average price this year - 33 or 34 dollars per barrel. In this case, the value of the dollar exchange rate will reach the price tag of 82 or 84 rubles per one dollar bill.

According to experts, if the ruble manages to win back its position from the dollar, it can help the world community stabilize the economic situation so as not to bring it to collapse. But it's not that easy, it takes time. But so far, the dollar exchange rate affects the ruble's ability to buy.

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and the dollar cost in 2020; when the crisis in Russia ends, and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability ... The stability of the national currency raises concerns, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own families, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and are worried about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and retirees preoccupied with one question: what will happen to the ruble / dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which one is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2020;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - the latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

After reading the material to the end , you will find out our vision for forecasting the ruble and dollar exchange rates.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows very well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. The sanctions carried out by Western countries also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2020, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The motive for imposing sanctions against Russia was the political action in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result of which, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express its desire to secede from the unitary Ukraine. So, in 2014 year a referendum was held, which attracted more 83 % of votes for disconnection from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation, as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence of military action and an act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted disconnection from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, have joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also influenced the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.

In particular, restrictions apply to such companies in the Russian oil and gas industry:

• Rosneft;
• Transneft;
• Gazpromneft.

The following Russian banks were caught by the sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• VTB;
• Gazprombank;
• VEB;
• Rosselkhozbank.

The industry of the Russian Federation was also affected by the sanctions:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• Oboronprom;
• United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions are to prohibit the residents of the European Union and their companies from performing transactions with securities, the validity of which more than 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of oil products.

In addition, Russians are prohibited from operations with European accounts, investment, securities and even consultations European companies. Also, the European Union has banned the transfer to Russia technologies, equipment and intellectual property (software, development) that can be used in the defense or civilian industry.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies, which were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entering the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who find themselves on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies are not allowed to provide companies that fall under the sanctions. financing for more than 30 days.

US sanctions relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies to the territory of Russia, programs to support the military forces of Russia. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is forbidden to use spacecraft, in the development of which US forces participated, and which also include elements developed by the state. Due to this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G device.

America has banned the issuance of a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All the sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, the freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia from participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relations among companies, banks etc.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and the development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion on the actions on the part of Russia to lift the sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but hiding refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral position and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. By retaliating sanctions from Russia, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns Middle East countries .

Cooperating, you can issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia establish your export... Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all due to prohibitions and sanctions.

Expanding oil and natural gas supplies will help Russia, over time, achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of Ukraine becoming a so-called black pit in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play a role. You should not wait for such actions from the US government - having crouched under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is not at the highest level anyway.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2020 📈📉

In recent years, the rate of the national currency of Russia has fallen more than than 20%... The population has never seen such a strong fall in the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will behave in the future. This especially worries people who are going to buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets from this broker .

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the depreciation rate of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign exchange did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left to influence the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now act on the course through inflation targeting. The basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and credit policy of the country.

Experts identify three main scenarios for the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to rebuilding and economic growth ... It is expected that the price of a barrel of oil in the countries of Asia and Korea will stabilize, which will rise to $ 95, and the dollar should acquire its former price. 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western states in relation to Russia, which will affect the increase in the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % ... Such changes are expected in the fall of 2020.

2nd scenario - Troubled scenario

The collapse of the oil market only aggravates the situation with the stabilization of the ruble against the dollar. If we turn to statistics, we can say that in 2016 the average dollar exchange rate in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the American dollar is 65-75 rubles.

According to some analysts and experts, our government's plans do not include taking measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is where the efforts of the state are directed.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia is coping with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and farmers.

Do not expect the ruble to stabilize its performance. If you turn to statistics 2014-2015 years, then we can recall that the percentage of expectations of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall in the economy cannot have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as a basis. And also the conditions for the action of all bans and sanctions... Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential internal and external investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the flow of material resources into the country, which has a detrimental effect on the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble exchange rate will begin to lose its current positions.

This will be facilitated by several reasons:

• the first factor is forecasting a decline in oil prices on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its exports brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• the second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions from Western states, which also impede the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large capital outflow of the country.

With such events, GDP is expected to decline to an indicator that will be 3-3,5% ... The dollar will stabilize, its cost will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd scenario - Realistic scenario

According to the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift the sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only intensify.

As for the oil price, in this situation it will remain at the same price of $ 40-60 per barrel. The level of GDP will approach zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will have a negative indicator at all. The fall GDP will be approximately 0,7- 1 % .

The reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the rise and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex market. Many factors influence the decrease and increase in the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we wrote an article about what a beginner trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of ruble growth

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive effect on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country policy. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . Investing by Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, soon, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while receiving income in the form of dividends.
• Oil price. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources ... Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. Russia enriches its state budget by selling oil. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of the population to the national currency... It is not immediately clear what is the meaning of these words, people normally relate to it. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the ruble exchange rate. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become, and accordingly, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be stability of the economy. Therefore, residents of the Russian Federation, as residents and Foreigners, have a great impact on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production... An increase in this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to overfulfill it. The high volume of production will provide not only the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income for the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

On weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate ... They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take thorough measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital... This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without knowing it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course... Thus, the capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a destructive effect on the position of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall in industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring low wealth for themselves.
2. Foreign currency rate... In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has strong positions in the world foreign exchange market. It is impossible to influence this. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which is in strong positions, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening of the country's national currency... America is confidently strengthening its position. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar on the part of America, the ruble loses its position... It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent a fall in the exchange rate, in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. Game of the population with exchange rates... Most Russians want to make money on the exchange rate. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. Thus, people ensure that their savings are securely stored through a stable currency. During the moments of a strong fall in the ruble exchange rate, huge transfers were made exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures... During the fall in the exchange rate of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could have prevented a significant fall in the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product... Production in Russia, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment... The equipment that has remained since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to people's distrust of domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation... This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing a particular product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer a higher quality for about the same price category as the domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technology production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producer country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the fall in the exchange rate of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2020 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts.

💡 We recommend that you first get acquainted with the opinion of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". Following the link, you will find tabs and sections with the latest forecasts by a specialist, you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

Purchase and sale of instruments (stocks, currencies, etc.) is available through the "Tools" tab. The Analytics tab contains reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge recession. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

Modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are only temporary phenomena, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and a strong rise in the dollar foreshadows and Nikolay Salabuto ... While holding the post of the head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices for several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the level 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that this was influenced by several factors:

• restrictive sanctions that will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which depends entirely on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, the policy of which will be associated with some events.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion on the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors mentioned above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , Director of the Group of Companies "ALOR" believes that conditionally the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that are not politically, legally or economically justified. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions from other states and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the cost of oil in $ 74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall in the ruble. Such a price will contribute to the decrease by another 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagina more hopeful. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting one. The analyst says that in 2020 the national currency will adjust to the current situation and start grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of any of them, it is necessary for yourself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2020 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar versus the ruble. This dependency is displayed as follows: when the dollar rises, oil price goes down, respectively the ruble is losing ground ... When the price of oil rises, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

The graph of the dependence of the cost of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2020... External Economic Bank predicts the cost in 6 $ 0 per barrel and above ... At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $ 70, and the support level is equal to $ 42.

Thanks to the news of the reduction in oil production and the extension of this restriction, the cost of a barrel of oil is rising. Resistance at this stage is $ 69-70. If these levels are “broken”, the oil price is likely to “go” to $ 98-100. In case of "breaking" down $ 58 - moving to the range of $ 53-58

At the beginning of 2016, the oil price took the position of the absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $ 28 per barrel... That is, the price of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - the coming years: latest news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its positions against other foreign currencies, such as dollar and Euro... Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble has lost most of its value.

Some foreign countries, experiencing economic crises, also saw a decline in the exchange rate of the national currency. Foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to make different forecasts about the economic situation in the Federation and about the exchange rate of the national currency, in particular.

Fluctuations in the ruble can be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions by the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts for the ruble exchange rate and oil prices ... According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2020, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles... As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $ 63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion on the country's economy in an interview for the leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the world financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2020 the price per US dollar will equal 55-58 rubles if OPEC's policy will help raise oil prices to $ 75-80 per barrel.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of a rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as oil and gas will also suffer, due to lack of funding, and as a consequence of the inability to operate at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect currency relations, which will not be beneficial to our currency.

One of the Canadian banks, Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts of the rate of the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to forecasts of one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman sachs , by 2020 the national currency rate will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar... The oil price will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be equal to $ 70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble is strengthening successfully. Forecasting the rise in oil prices is good news. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up on patience and baggage of action, because a quick return of the former situation should not be expected.

7. Frequently asked questions on the ruble and dollar rates 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2020?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the American currency has been agitating the population for some time. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by the fact that the United States is already developing a plan to restrict the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliation.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. Government policy is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the national currency of Russia.

For example, trade in the national resource of Russia, like natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. In the event that large countries decide to sell America's Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in no time.

CEO of City Express Alexey Kithatov assesses the chances of canceling the dollar in the country as minimal. Kitchatov says this will be a huge blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that await the Russian people, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored precisely in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, this will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two shadow turnover rates. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight capital outflow, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast of the ruble / dollar exchange rate for the next week?

In predicting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no particular reasons for the exchange rate stabilization.

We remind you that the latest forecasts and analytics regarding the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall anytime soon?

The ruble exchange rate, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments are made in Russian capital, assets and the economy, the more reliable the position of the national currency will be. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is associated with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected by balance of imports and export ... These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this makes it possible to enrich the state budget.

In talking about this balance, it must be remembered that America has biggest national debt ... In addition, the United States has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's internal debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise as to why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is a highly liquid and most convertible currency in the world. Why are the forecasts of experts from year to year not coming true, and the dollar remains the most popular currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the dollar's fall?

If the dollar still falls, another currency must come to replace... It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of conversion, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar... But do not forget that the European Union currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis ... This is first and foremost Greece, Portugal, Spain other.

America's large debt to these countries is also to blame for this stagnation. The euro also depends on the dollar, or rather on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency even when all countries went through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets fell in value. This helped the dollar to strengthen its position even more. Even during the crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high level of conversion, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar ... This diversification takes place to preserve the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the rate of its currency at a high level. If you believe the rumors that the fault of the economic crisis was one of the "powerful moves" on the part of America, which was staged to support the national course.

By maintaining the economic situation in America in 2008, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period there was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as demand for the dollar did not diminish. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar rate will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by large countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the abandonment of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method, selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then use the same currency to settle accounts with another country for the required assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its national currency, and not the dollar, then the rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar grow in 2020?

We have already described in detail possible forecasts for the dollar exchange rate. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the Fed's decision. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed is planning to raise the interest rate in the near future, which may negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2020: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

From time to time we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rates, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyzes.

* Forecast of the dollar for the near future

From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make predictions yourself. Nobody knows the exact forecasts !!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market on your own, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + related video 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for an early stabilization of the Russian national exchange rate. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon take place.

But despite such bright prospects, it is worthwhile to understand that today Russia does not have the best economic situation, which can be influenced by various actions, and also not only internal , but also external political factors undertaken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, a national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the inhabitants of Russia. According to official statistics, over the past two years, Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves... The waste was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will fall significantly, and to maintain the functioning level of the economy of such a huge state requires a lot of money. The opinions of experts and leading banks are, of course, promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for the level of wages and pensions to improve.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, to raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.

But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?"

If you have any questions and wishes, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

The well-being of millions of Russians directly depends on the exchange rate of the national currency. It is in rubles that most of the country's citizens keep their savings. About a third of all deposits in Russian banks are in rubles.

However, today the confidence of Russians in domestic money has slightly decreased, which is explained by the fall in the exchange rate, the geopolitical situation on the planet and the state of the Russian economy.

You will find answers to these and other questions in the new article of our magazine. In touch Denis Kuderin is a staff expert of HeatherBober on financial topics.

Analytics, forecasts, expert opinions - only useful and relevant information!

1. What awaits the ruble in the future - positive and negative trends

In the recent history of the ruble, everything has happened, including Black Tuesdays, collapses and devaluations. The chart of the RF currency moves in the wake of economic and political changes in the country and in the world.

Stability is only temporary. Therefore, keeping all savings in RUB, especially outside a banking institution, is risky and impractical. Financially literate people don't do that. They distribute money among several currencies and put it into action. At the very least, they put it on a bank deposit.

It is even better if they are invested in more efficient banking instruments - securities, metal deposits, mutual funds, reliable investment projects. In this case, the fall of some money and the rise of others will not be catastrophic for your assets.

But this does not mean that forecasts should not interest you: every civilized citizen monitors the quotes and acts in accordance with their changes.

However, not all forecasts should be taken on faith, and even more so as a guide to action. Most of these predictions are empty air concussions. Even competent financial analysts and economic observers are often wrong. The reason is simple: too many factors influence the situation.

Our task is to find a rational grain in such forecasts in order to form the most objective picture of the situation and draw appropriate conclusions.

Forecasts are needed to:

• know in what money it is more expedient to keep most of the savings;
• make money on fluctuations in quotations;
• save your assets in the event of a sharp drop in one of the currencies.

The collapses of the exchange rate always occur rapidly - that is why they are collapses. Nevertheless, it is quite possible to catch a tendency to a sharp change in quotations. Experienced people do just that.

Changes in quotes can be foreseen if you are up to date with the latest news

Another question is who to believe? Surely you have a friend who loves to make forecasts and knows exactly what will happen to the ruble in a month, a week, at the end of the year (underline the necessary). And another friend predicts the opposite. One of them will be right in the end. Is it worth believing such predictors?

As for the official forecasts for 2019, there are, as usual, two trends - negative and positive.

Thus, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation assumes that the weakening of the national currency will continue, but this will hardly affect the country's economy. According to the ministers, the GDP will grow, while the inflation rate will fall.

The head of the department, Maxim Oreshkin, calls out indicative indicators by the middle of the year: no more than 67-68 rubles. for the dollar.

But representatives of Bank of America think differently. Sanctions against Russian banks and financial assets abroad, in their opinion, will significantly limit the Russian economy. Companies will have less credit, which will negatively affect growth and development. It is assumed that the Russian currency will fall to 70 rubles. for a buck.

2. Why the ruble is falling - the main factors that negatively affect the exchange rate

There are actually several dozen factors influencing the fall of the ruble against the euro and the dollar. Most of them are beyond government control. This means that there are no guarantees of stability. Russians, as always, should be ready for any scenario.

Let's consider the main reasons for the depreciation of the ruble exchange rate.

Outflow of Russian capital

Geopolitical events and the sanctions imposed by the West on the Russian economy continue to stimulate the movement of financial assets to foreign countries.

Large investors prefer not to keep their money in rubles or securities representing the Russian economy. Ordinary citizens do the same. Not trusting Russian money, we are thereby working for the stability of other countries.

The owners of assets cannot be blamed for this, but the fact remains: capital is being withdrawn from the Russian economy. This leads to a drop in production, a decrease in GDP, an increase in unemployment and other "delights" of the time of crisis.

Game of the population with exchange rates

As soon as the position of the ruble weakens, the population begins to panic and buy up dollars in huge quantities. Such behavior is a manifestation of financial illiteracy, but again, ordinary citizens cannot be blamed for this: they perfectly remember the crises and collapses of recent decades.

However, panic in the market leads to an even greater increase in the value of foreign money. An avalanche effect occurs. Professional exchange gamblers earn decent money on panic fluctuations in the exchange rate. But the majority of depositors simply buy up the currency at an artificially inflated price, changing the quotes to the disadvantage of the ruble.

Central Bank Measures

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation switched to a floating exchange rate in 2015. In practice, this means that the country's main bank no longer supports national money during the crisis. In other words, if earlier the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the state budget were spent on artificially maintaining the exchange rate, today the national currency should support itself.

The Central Bank also has other levers of influence on quotes, both positively and negatively:

• additional issue of banknotes - more money is printed, which leads to inflation;
• foreign exchange interventions - buying / selling foreign money on an "industrial scale";
• issue of bonds - the massive purchase of securities strengthens the currency;
• reduction of the refinancing rate - the lower it is, the more stable the national currency rate.

It would be naive to think that only the Central Bank influences the quotes. The United States also has a national bank - the Federal Reserve System. The decisions this organization makes directly affect the status of the dollar. All other money in the world depends on this currency.

Economic stagnation

The main export item to the Russian Federation is raw materials: oil, gas, and other energy resources. Due to high oil prices, the Russian economy is still afloat.

The rest of the industries in our country are poorly developed or are in a state of stagnation. This means that there is no development, and our industry enterprises cannot create serious competition for foreign companies.

Economic sanctions have deprived Russia of a significant share of imports, but this situation cannot be called unequivocally negative. There are no imports, which means that you need to saturate the market from the inside. Against the background of external pressure in some sectors of the economy, there has been an upturn - in particular, in the agricultural sector.

At the same time, a significant share of consumer goods (70-80%) is supplied to the Russian Federation from China. It is cheaper than producing your own products, but it does not stimulate economic development.

And a little more negativity. Most of the large factories in the Russian Federation operate on obsolete equipment. Industry is not expanding, new technologies are not being developed, income from enterprises is barely enough to pay workers' wages. We have to buy foreign machines, and this, again, means investments in the foreign economy.

I can confirm by my own example. Several years ago I worked for a large publishing house. Under him there was a printing house, on which of the 50 machines there was not a single Russian production - only German, Japanese and Chinese.

By the way, this largest printing house in Siberia has almost stopped by now. The staff was cut by 80%, some workshops were closed forever.

Comparative table of influencing factors

3. What can affect the growth of the national currency

Most analysts do not believe in the growth of the ruble in the next few years. However, such a scenario is not completely ruled out.

What needs to happen for the ruble to rise?

Western partners investing in Russian securities

This will happen if stocks, bonds and other securities of Russian origin begin to show a steady upward trend. Which, in turn, is possible in the event of an economic recovery in the country.

Rise in oil prices

So far, there is so much oil in Russia that we export it abroad on an industrial scale. The state of the Russian, and before that the Soviet, economy has always depended on oil prices. More than half of all budget revenues are oil money. The rest is accounted for by other minerals.

As soon as oil falls by a couple of dollars per barrel, we will miss billions of rubles in the budget. If the price falls by 10 USD, the Russian economy will collapse into the abyss. Fortunately, there is no downward trend so far. If prices for "black gold" continue to slowly creep up, this will strengthen the ruble in the second half of 2019.

Increasing the rate of national production

Everything is simple here - more exports, good and different, more treasury receipts.

So far, economic ties with foreign countries are mostly broken, not improved.

The ratio of the population to the national currency

If people begin to trust the Russian currency again, as they did 5-10 years ago, this will automatically raise its status.

More deposits of the population in national money - the more stable its quotes on the stock exchange.

4. Is it worth changing rubles for dollars and euros - expert opinion

Experts believe that buying up foreign money en masse is shortsighted and impractical. At all times, it is better to keep savings in several currencies at once. For these purposes, banks have special multicurrency deposits - far-sighted investors use them.

Do not forget that more interest is charged on ruble deposits than on foreign currency ones. During the period of economic stabilization, it is even more profitable to keep savings in Russian money.

But taking long-term loans in USD is definitely not worth it. You will also have to pay in dollars. Even a small increase in the dollar exchange rate will turn into a serious debt burden.

6. Conclusion

Let's draw conclusions. Analysts predict the course based on the ideal situation. And there are almost no ideal situations in nature. Something always goes wrong, which is why even brilliant economic experts make mistakes in their forecasts.

If you want to protect your savings, distribute them between three currencies. Then the economic shocks will affect you to a minimum.

Question to readers:

What forecasts about the ruble do you personally give?

We wish you financial well-being, regardless of the currency you choose! We will be glad to receive comments, reviews, stories from life. Until next time!

Many people would like to know how the exchange rate of the national currency will change in the near future. The interest of stock speculators and traders is quite understandable - they earn money on its fluctuations, but for ordinary citizens this information can be much more useful than it seems.

The weakening of the national currency leads to an increase in inflation, and is reflected in the prices of goods and products. The strength and weakness of the currency affects bank interest rates on loans and deposits for the mortgage lending program and many more financial indicators.

The main world currency is the American dollar, because it is to it that the main currency pairs and raw materials are tied. Therefore, the strength of the national currency largely depends on how its value changes in relation to the USD.

The American currency depends on many factors, which can be conditionally divided into economic and political. The latter include geopolitical events involving the United States and the political situation within the country.

Since the geopolitical interests of the United States are represented all over the world, any tension in the situation can have a strong impact on the USD. An example of this is the conflict with the DPRK, when any statements by the leaders of both sides have a serious impact on the quotes of the American currency.

Political tension in the United States itself is expressed by the eternal confrontation between Democrats and Republicans, which is expressed in problems with the adoption of various laws and reforms. For example, in November-December 2017, the dollar exchange rate fluctuated very much on the eve of the adoption of the tax reform proposed by President Trump.

There are many economic factors affecting USD, and here are the main ones:

• the cost of oil;
• the Fed's decision on the interest rate;
• the yield on government bonds;
• various economic indicators and indices;
• natural disasters.

The cost of oil is a powerful catalyst for many banknotes. In the case of the dollar, an increase in the cost of a barrel of oil negatively affects the currency, while a decrease leads to an increase in the USD. The explanation is very simple - oil is traded in US dollars and with an increase in its value, the demand for US currency for purchase increases, and the demand for currency leads to an increase in its quotations.

The interest rate of the Central Bank (in the case of the USA - the FRS) influences the credit policy within the country. A high interest rate encourages savings and currency savings, and a low interest rate encourages more active spending.

The situation is similar with the yield on government bonds - the higher it is, the more attractive the American currency is for investors. Economic indicators have a short-term impact on the currency as they are published once a week. But natural disasters, or rather their consequences can seriously collapse any currency, in August 2017 the USD collapsed due to the activities of Hurricane Harvey.

In 2017, the weighted average US dollar rate was 58.33 rubles. Its monthly dynamics from January to November is shown in the chart.

When drawing up the budget of the Russian Federation for 2018, the average annual dollar exchange rate was 64.7 rubles. Compared to 2017, economists of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation predict growth of the American currency by 10.92%. But some analysts at private equity firms are less optimistic in their forecasts. They predict a fall in the Russian currency to 90 rubles per dollar, although still most experts predict the value of quotations in the range of 65-75 rubles.

Head of Investment Department, Raiffeisen Capital Management Company, Vladimir Vedeneev, believes that in 2018 the ruble will be strongly influenced by the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions by the United States and the EU, as well as the growth of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Russia. All this can lead to the growth of the American currency above the mark of 70 rubles.

The head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade takes about the same position Maxim Oreshkin... According to his most pessimistic forecasts, in 2018 the dollar should not exceed 67 rubles, and the most likely scenario is 63 rubles. for $ 1. And although, the official assures that there is no need to wait for sharp hesitation, he still does not explain the reasons why the ruble will fall in price by almost 10%.

And here is the lead analyst at BCS Global Markets Vladimir Tikhomirov claims that by the end of 2018, RUR will not only not go down, but may even end it with a slight increase. The expert's forecast is based on the fact that the world will maintain a stable demand for oil at a price of $ 65 per barrel and that tensions between the United States and Russia will subside. All this will allow the ruble to gain a foothold in the range of 57-59 perUSD.

In turn, his colleague, a leading analyst at AMarkets Artem Deev, warns that in 2018 there is a very high probability of a fall in prices for black gold. This is due to the fact that the OPEC member countries, in order not to lose the market, can increase the production of cheap oil. This, in turn, can reduce the price of oil to $ 40, and the ruble can be pulled to the line of 80 units per dollar.

The growth of the dollar to the mark of 70 rubles is predicted by the director of the analytical department of the company "Alpari" Alexander Razuvaev. But, in his opinion, in this case, it will not be the price of oil that will be fundamental, but the outflow of foreign capital from government debt securities of the Russian Federation, due to a possible new round of anti-Russian sanctions. Moreover, the fall can be very rapid up to 12-15% per month.

Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich, believes that the political component will allow the ruble to keep the position of 2017. This is due to the fact that after the March elections, the transfer of power to other hands is unlikely. This means that the chosen vector of the country's economic development will not change. That is, the political and economic situation in the country will remain stable, and investors are very fond of this.

conclusions

Forecasting is a very difficult and often thankless task. And it is almost impossible to predict changes in the exchange rate of such a currency as the USD against the RUR, and even a year in advance. If we take as a basis the already known events (elections in the Russian Federation, current anti-Russian sanctions) and assume that no excesses will occur in world geopolitics and economics, the cost of the dollar at the end of 2018 will be approximately 65 rubles.

This figure is due to the fact that, despite the predicted outcome of the March elections in the Russian Federation, in anticipation of this event, the Russian currency will decline. And further smooth strengthening of the dollar will be associated with good forecasts of economists and analysts on the development of the US economy.

Video "Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2018 / The collapse of the ruble is not far off?"

Hello! In this article, we will talk about what will happen to the dollar and the ruble in the near future, about what forecasts for the future of the economy of our state exist, how the currencies (the ruble and the dollar) are supposed to behave and how to fix the situation. You will also find out the opinions of various experts regarding exchange rates.

Reasons for the difficult situation in the Russian economy

It is foolish to deny that the current economic situation in the country causes not only tension among citizens, but real fear. The national currency is unstable, and this entails consequences for each individual family in Russia. Many people keep their savings in rubles and they are very worried about the future of savings.

If we talk about the reasons due to which negative phenomena occur in the economy of our state, then they are far from new. Other states faced them, and ours too. World history knows more than one such case. Why all these factors are generally linked into one tangle will be analyzed by historians in the future, and we will now try to express our point of view on the current situation.

So, the following points take place:

• Sharp decline in oil prices. No matter how sad it may be, but for several years Russia has been tightly addicted to the so-called "oil needle". This is a well-known fact and is not a secret;
• The economy is skewed towards the commodity side. Corollary of the first point. Funds from the sale of oil were not invested in the development of new technologies, scientific potential, and so on.
• Corruption component. The level of corruption in the state has reached enormous proportions. Yes, the fight against it is gaining momentum, but it is still very far from its successful completion.
• Sanctions imposed by other states... This is, of course, a double-edged sword, but it is foolish to deny that they have a negative impact.
• Deteriorating investment climate. Directly connected with all of the above factors, as well as with the instability of the national currency.

Possible scenarios

In fact, there are several of them. Let's dwell on each one in more detail.

1. Especially optimistic. Some part of the expert community adheres to this scenario of the development of events. It is possible only in the following cases: the oil price will increase to 60 rubles per barrel and the sanctions against Russia will be lifted in full. So there is no hope for the rapid development of this option.
2. Optimistic mid-level. Experts from Germany offer the following vision of the situation: According to them, the Russian authorities will apply maximum conditions to stabilize the situation and the national currency will strengthen its positions.
3. Practical hopeless... One of the leading US economic analytics bureaus believes that the oil price will continue to fall and lead to a complete collapse of the ruble.
4. Deplorable... A separate part of the experts agreed that the value of the dollar will go over the mark of 100 rubles.

Without going to extremes, it can be noted that most analysts are of the same opinion: the ratio of the ruble to the dollar will fluctuate between 70-75.

We all know that the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is directly dependent on the price of the so-called "black gold". And the imposed sanctions are also collapsing our currency, and even the Central Bank cannot cope with the situation completely.

There are also experts who believe that the stabilization of the ruble is not included in the plans of the Central Bank and the Government at all. In their opinion, the state prefers to focus on the development of exports of various goods. As far as this opinion can be called correct, we will not go into the reasoning, but it does take place.

Naturally, the development of exports will bring the state a certain level of income, but in a global sense, this will not solve the problem.

What will happen to the ruble in the near future in 2018

The following factors have a significant impact on the behavior of our national currency:

• What policy does the state itself lead... Let's make a reservation that most of the decisions are aimed at the good of our country and its strengthening;
• in securities... At the moment they are at an insufficient level, although foreign investors have begun to be active in this regard, despite the sanctions;
• Oil price... If it increases, then the income of our state will also;
• Attitude towards the ruble of the population itself... It would seem, what role does it play at all? Pretty serious. When the population loses confidence in the national currency, the number of ruble deposits decreases, and this directly affects the ruble exchange rate.
• Increase in production capacity. If this indicator gradually increases, then not only the volumes that were planned will be fulfilled, but also a number of volumes above the plan.

Because of what the ruble is getting cheaper

• Due to the departure of Russian capital to foreign countries... The ruble is unstable, which means that investors are transferring funds to another currency, thereby maintaining the stability and stability of this currency.
• Because of the games of the population itself on the exchange rates. Many Russians want to make money on the exchange rates. This desire is quite understandable, because the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro is consistently high. At the same time, by exchanging the ruble for foreign currency, citizens themselves ensure the fall of its exchange rate. In addition, this clearly indicates a lack of confidence in the ruble, which was already mentioned earlier.
• Measures taken by the Central Bank. When the national currency began to fall seriously, it was worth imposing a ban on converting the ruble into the dollar. This could well have prevented the fall, analysts said.
• Poor development of production. Many large factories are idle or operate on equipment left over from Soviet times. This means that the enterprise cannot operate at its full capacity, the quality of the manufactured products suffers so much that the population's trust in such goods drops to zero.
• Stagnant economy. This is the result of the widespread use of foreign goods and products. Of course, imported goods are of high quality domestic, but they are not much more expensive. By purchasing them, any person invests money in the development of the economy of another country, aggravating the situation in his own. This situation can be corrected only by developing advanced technologies and industrial production.

To understand the situation as a whole, consider the various opinions of reputable experts. For example, Nikolay Salabuto connects the growth of the dollar and the fall of the ruble with a clear decline in oil prices. He gives forecasts for the cost of about 200 rubles per dollar.

He also expresses the opinion that a huge influence on the value of the ruble is exerted by:

• The policy of sanctions against our state;
• The already mentioned level of oil prices;
• The dependence of many industries on the economic situation in the country, as well as their dependence on geopolitics in general;
• Policy imposed by the US Federal Reserve.

According to analyst Igor Nikolaev, The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is taking all steps to improve the situation and it makes no sense to question their correctness. But at the same time, these steps will not be able to completely make the situation stable, since initially it is necessary to stop the impact on the ruble of those negative aspects that we talked about above.

The head of the Alor Group of Companies Sergey Khestanov says that all the factors due to which the ruble is depreciating can be divided into 2 groups: objective and subjective.

Among the objective ones, he singles out, like other experts, the sanctions and the size of the external debt of our country. The subjective ones include: first of all, the opinions of other analysts (since this is just their point of view, which is expressed), as well as the outflow of capital from the country.

It is unrealistic to take and predict how all these factors will behave in the aggregate. But the expert is sure that the value of the ruble will decrease by another 10% from the current rate.

In turn, the financial analyst Vitaly Kulagin proposes this point of view: the position of the ruble is currently only starting. In 2018, the ruble will fully adapt to the situation and begin to grow.

What is devaluation and is it possible in the current economic situation in the country

Many, hearing the word "devaluation", are horrified and await the collapse of the entire financial system. In fact, devaluation is significantly different from concepts such as denomination and default.

Devaluation - a decrease in the value of the national currency in relation to other currencies.

Default – this is when the state, due to lack of money, simply cannot fulfill its financial obligations to its citizens.

It is clear from the forecasts of experts that if the oil price falls sharply again, the Russian currency will fall significantly in price. Representatives of large banks (such as Raiffeisenbank, Alfa-Bank) believe that in 2018 the ruble will weaken to 95 rubles / dollar.

The next moment, due to which another round of devaluation may occur, is the budget deficit. According to the results of 2016, its expenditure side exceeds the revenue side by 3.5%, which, in turn, puts a serious burden on the Reserve Fund. And during 2018 the situation is unlikely to improve significantly.

Due to the budget deficit, the reserves of the Reserve Fund may be exhausted in full.

Also, problems for the ruble arise due to different tensions in geopolitics. In particular, the conflict in Syria could cause the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian Federation, and therefore hit the economy and the position of the ruble.

According to pessimistic forecasts, a new stage of devaluation is inevitable. The optimistic one assumes that the ruble will not resume its fall, but will begin to strengthen.

Should we expect a denomination in 2018

The possibility of denomination of the ruble is categorically denied not only by the government, but also by most of the expert community. Experts consider such a step to be ineffective and negative.

Denomination - This is one of the forms of consolidation of monetary units. It facilitates cash settlement, and is used at the time of loss of purchasing power by the ruble.

The possibility of using this tool has been discussed for several years. In particular, since the end of 2014, when the ruble began to lose its positions. The State Duma heard proposals to use this measure to mitigate the crisis in the economy. But in the future, this initiative did not find support and was recognized as meaningless. According to the head of the Central Bank, it makes sense to discuss such a probability only if the ruble depreciates by more than 10 times.

If the denomination makes the calculation easier, then its procedure itself requires simply colossal labor costs and fraught with great risks. It is necessary to replace banknotes, introduce new banknotes into circulation, and this threatens not only with an increase in inflation, but also with the fact that prices will be rounded up.

Under the current conditions, the issue of denomination in 2018 is not planned to be raised.

The experience of our neighbors

In Belarus, the denomination has been held since July 2016. As a result, the national currency of Belarus will lose 4 zeros. This issue was brewing for a long time and in the end it was decided to carry out the denomination. The problem began back in the 90s, when the republic gained independence. The situation reached the point of absurdity: in order to buy a TV or refrigerator, the buyer had to carry a whole bag of money with him, and in the literal sense.

Our country also has such experience. The denomination was held in 1998, 3 zeros were taken from the Russian currency. At that time, this step was justified, economists say.

As we said above, experts' opinions on the ruble are different, and sometimes they completely contradict each other. But the fact that 2017 was not an easy year for the ruble can be stated almost unambiguously.

What will happen to the dollar in the near future - expert opinions

To understand the situation more fully, let's get acquainted with the opinions of various experts.

Alexey Kudrin, a former finance minister, says Russia's economy will experience an even greater recession in the coming months. The reason for this, he calls the foreign policy of our state, in particular, the introduction of counter-sanctions.

He is supported by an economist Vladimir Tikhomir... He believes that the lifting of counter-sanctions will help stabilize the situation.

It is also worth mentioning the forecast of one of the major American banks, which has a positive reputation in the economic community. So, analysts Morgan Stenley it is assumed that in 2018 the value of the dollar will be equal to 85-87 rubles. But its price reduction will begin only in 2018 and even then not by much.

A well-known analyst also expresses his opinion Mikhail Khazin. He believes that the entire economic model that has developed in Russia is subject to renewal. This is what will help stabilize the ruble and correct the difficult situation in the economy. However, a number of investors completely disagree with him, who believe that the ruble reduces its dependence on oil and in the future it will only strengthen.

A diametrically different opinion is expressed by the experts of the Yegor Gaidar Institute. They say that the dollar will lose its positions and fall closer to the second half of the year.

The dollar outlook to 2020

To analyze what the dollar exchange rate will be in the future, experts rely on those events that will definitely happen. The accuracy level of this analysis is about 70%. Events that occur unexpectedly (catastrophes of various nature, natural disasters, and so on) cannot be predicted and foreseen.

If we talk about the long term, the forecast for the dollar exchange rate until 2020 has already been made Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation... It is as follows: if the price of oil is $ 40 per barrel, then this is not a bright future for our national currency. The dollar will rise in price to 75-80 rubles and then the crisis will continue for several more years, or rather, until 2019 inclusive.

Online agency Prognoxex and his analysts believe that the first half of 2018 will be characterized by a gradual depreciation of the ruble, which means an increase in the dollar. For the second half of the year, the projected dollar exchange rate is 62 rubles.

As we can see, even the most reputable analysts do not agree on the dollar exchange rate even in 2018, let alone the situation that will develop in 2020. The exchange rate jumps sharply and with a great deal of unpredictability, which negates all forecasts. Also, such races open the door for speculation and attempts to make money on it. Although all experts say that without a certain baggage of knowledge, you should not engage in currency manipulation - and she is right.

Factors influencing the dollar

There are several key factors affecting this currency. At the same time, the leadership of our state cannot influence them.

• Number of foreign economic transactions... Currently, the turnover of funds with other countries is clearly insufficient.
• Inflation rate... According to the most optimistic forecasts, it is 5%, but if the situation worsens, the dollar will rise in price by exactly that amount.
• Removal of economic sanctions from Iran... This country has entered the oil production market again. This means that the average oil price will already significantly decrease and affect the value of the dollar.

Topical issues of the future of the economy

Many questions concerning the exchange rates of the dollar and the ruble are of great concern to the population.

Let's consider the most common ones and try to give answers to them:

1. Could the dollar be abolished as a currency in 2018? To date, the government is taking measures to reduce the turnover of the dollar in the state. It is clear that it is completely unrealistic to exclude it, since the dollar is the basis of the entire world financial system. But restrictions can be introduced. Let us explain with an example: natural gas is our national resource. We can sell it to other countries not for dollars, but for rubles. This will allow the ruble to strengthen significantly.
2. What will the dollar exchange rate be in 2018? As we can see from all the forecasts given above, the dollar exchange rate can either rise or fall. Apart from all other factors, it will depend on the decisions taken by the Fed.
3. Why do people trust the dollar? It is this currency that has shown itself to be the most stable over a long period of time, the euro is a young currency, and the dollar is a time-tested financial instrument.

What will happen to oil

The following principle applies here: if the price of oil rises, the dollar falls, and the ruble strengthens its position; if oil falls, the dollar increases in price, and the ruble is already falling. Almost all experts are unanimous: it is simply unrealistic to forecast the cost of “black gold” in 2018 with high accuracy.

For example, an expert from France Pierre Terzian, who is the director of such a serious and well-known publication as Petrostrategies, says that the price of oil will increase by an order of magnitude in 2018 compared to 2016, but will only stabilize in 2018.

Specialists from Pira also believe that quotations will rise to $ 75, and this will have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate.

Also, the expert community believes that one can count on a gradual easing of sanctions, which means that the ruble will be able to regain the positions that it has lost.

In general, there is clearly an intrigue waiting for us with oil. It is known that OPEC members (and Russia too) signed an agreement according to which oil production will be frozen. Due to this, the price for it will move up. But then it turns out even more interesting: US oil producers will intensively begin to extract shale oil and literally flood the market with it, which is unprofitable for us.

This is what he says Tamara Kasyanova, 2K Managing Partner. She believes that the decision taken by the OPEC member countries has been positively accepted by the market so far. But it is difficult to say how clearly and honestly the points set out in this agreement will be implemented. It is difficult to say how shale oil production will affect our economy.

Russian economy in 2018

The government of the Russian Federation confidently declares that the country's economy will resume its growth in the new year. But this largely depends on trends in the oil market. Although, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, our country has already gone through most of the consequences of the crisis. Despite the fluctuations in oil prices, the situation can be called stable and in 2018 growth is planned at the level of 0.6-1%.

At the same time, experts from the Higher School of Economics believe that energy prices will continue to fall, the dynamics of all types of industry and retail trade will also maintain negative indicators. To reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors, it is necessary to carry out a global reform of the entire system, that is, to stimulate entrepreneurship, to reduce the role of the state in the economy. But again, this is just an opinion, how it will be perceived, the question is already another.

Be that as it may, 2018 is already called the “year of recovery”. It is planned to index wages, a small but increase in other payments.

There are also completely opposite points of view that 2018 will mark the beginning of catastrophic events in our country.

How not to lose your funds due to fluctuations in exchange rates

To preserve your savings, you should listen to serious experts who recommend investing them in real estate and precious metals. There are also opinions that a rather promising direction for investment is (properly organized and carefully thought out). This is relevant due to the fact that in many industries it is significantly reduced.

One of the investment options is to open a multicurrency bank account. It allows its owners to transfer funds from one chosen currency to another, taking into account how profitable the rate is.

Well, in order to deviate a little from a serious economic topic, we bring to your attention forecasts regarding the future of our country and its national currency, which were made by famous predictors and astrologers. And how to treat them, everyone will decide for themselves.

St. Matrona Moscow

The fortuneteller believed that this year will be difficult and decisive not only for Russia, but also for all mankind. But it is not possible to reliably interpret her words. The prophecy itself sounds threatening, but it is just a prophecy.

Helena Blavatsky

She believed that the global changes in world politics and economy, which began in 2012, will come to their logical conclusion by 2018. The future of Russia depends on how 2018 goes. By the way, a prominent scientist adhered to the same opinion. Konstantin Tsiolkovsky. It is in his works that the thoughts are reflected that 2018 for Russia will be a breakthrough in the space industry. But he also warns against over-mastering new technologies, as this can lead to serious man-made disasters.

Nostradamus

As everyone knows, Michel Nostradamus expressed his prophecies in quatrains (poems). They are difficult to decipher, but in relation to Russia it sounds like this: there will be a shortage of water, as well as several local military conflicts.

Pavel Globa

Many Russians really trust him as an astrologer. Some of his predictions came true and for 2018 he voiced rather favorable forecasts: Russia will return to the world arena, the economy will begin to come to a state of stability. The country will gradually become one of the most influential states in the world.

Vanga

She has repeatedly predicted that 2018 will be a difficult year for our country. There will be a struggle between people of different religions, and the economy will experience another fall.

Conclusion

After reviewing and analyzing all the forecasts, we can conclude that the national currency of Russia has certain tendencies both to strengthening and to weakening. It is worth paying attention to the fact that the economic situation is not the most favorable now, which can be influenced not only by external factors, but also by internal ones. You need to understand that it is not easy about exchange rates and oil prices, but about the formation of a different picture of the world. Therefore, life in the country is unlikely to become easy in the near future.

In general, the situation is rather precarious, state revenues are still falling, but there are definitely favorable prospects.