In investment analysis, discounting is understood. Basic concepts of the theory of investment analysis

The methodology for analyzing investment projects is based on the determination of mandatory parameters or conditions that characterize both the project itself and the quality of the analysis. The prerequisites for investment analysis include: - assessment of the size of investments or investments; - assessment of income, income from investments; - determination of the interest rate to take into account the factor of time and risk; - choice of analysis methods

When starting to analyze production investments, it is necessary, first of all, to assess the depth of the analytical study of the project, the economic feasibility of expenses that make up the cost of the proposed investment. The second most important task is the assessment of income, cash receipts from investments.

To assess the return on investment, it is necessary to determine: 1) when the income will be received; 2) what will be the net income (profit); 3) how long the property will be generating income; 4) what is the expected net proceeds from the sale of the property at the end of ownership; 5) how high the likelihood of receiving income. The answer to the question of when the income will be received is based on determining the timing of construction and production development. At these stages, cash flows are negative, since no income is received during the construction period, and at the development stage, or the stage of putting an object into operation, current costs exceed income. The term for obtaining income is determined by building a break-even schedule

The quality of the forecast significantly affects the quality of estimates of investment efficiency, especially short-term (up to 5-10 years)

An error in determining the timing of the receipt of income leads to errors in the calculations of the fair value of investment receipts, calculated using the function of the present value of the annuity F4. The shorter-term the annuity is, the greater the error in calculations can be caused by an error in estimating the period of income.

The table shows the values of the annuity factor F4 and the percentage differences in annuities by period

Table 13.6 - The annuity factor at a rate of 10% and the difference in factors in percent Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 Factor F4 0.909 1.736 2.487 3.170 3.791 4.355 Percentage differences between periods,% +91.0 +42.7 +26.9 +19, 1 +14.9 An error in choosing between two and three years of income generation leads to a difference in results of 42.7%, an error between five and six years leads to an error of 14.9%. With the lengthening of the forecast period, the error in forecasting future proceeds from the resale of property also decreases

The answers to the second and third questions are found by predicting the life cycle of the invested product or production. Description of the product life cycle is the result of in-depth marketing research of the market situation, taking into account the impact of macroeconomic cycles on the development of the industry

The life cycle is the most likely period during which the valued investment will generate income. In some cases, the duration of the investment period is determined by the period of depreciation (which may differ in formal terms from the life cycle of the project), the period before major repairs or re-equipment

At the end of its useful life, the item may be sold, and the selling price may differ from the carrying amount of the asset. If the asset value is forecast to rise against the residual value, then the net income from the sale will be the return on investment. If there is a loss in the value of the asset, that is, the proceeds from its sale are not reimbursed residual value, then the amount of current investment income should be reduced by the appropriate amount. Both the net sale and the loss are translated into present value using the factor factor F3. Forecasting of proceeds from the sale is carried out taking into account the following factors: - a possible increase in the value of real estate due to cyclical changes in the market situation; - inflation index; - the degree of physical deterioration of the object; - transaction costs, including sales taxes

When assessing the return on investment, the factor of uncertainty of earning income is taken into account, which is assessed by the risk category. Risk here is the likelihood that the income received from the investment will not reach the predicted value. To assess the risk, statistical, expert and combined methods are used. The degree of risk is taken into account when choosing the interest rate at which the discounting is made

The choice of interest rate is the most important point in investment analysis. Three options of rates are most often used: - based on the average cost of capital; - the average level of lending interest or the rate on a long-term loan; - subjective assessments determined by the interests of enterprises, for example, the level of dividends on ordinary shares

The analytical calculation methodology is based, as a rule, on a combination of the considered evaluation criteria. In each case, priority is given to those criteria that at the moment most reflect the interests of owners or investors. If the profitability of the project is put forward in the first place, then the calculation is based on the return on investment index or the internal rate of return. The higher the IRR, the greater the return on investment. Abroad, the internal rate of return is used as a criterion for selecting projects for analysis when there are several alternative projects. Projects with an IRR of at least 15-20% are accepted for consideration

In industries with the highest level of technological change, the priority of the payback period of the project is higher than the profitability of the project

Mandatory selection conditions investment project of several alternative options, the following principles are observed: 1) the net present value and the return on investment index for this project should be higher than for the alternative project; 2) the investment efficiency ratio must be higher than the average cost of capital; 3) a higher internal rate of return compared to other projects; 4) the excess of the internal rate of return over the inflation rate; 5) compliance of the payback period with the technology update period or the life cycle of the investment product

When analyzing opportunities general issues related to the definition of the main goals of the initiators of the project and the degree of attractiveness of the sphere in which investments are directed are considered. Analyzing the possibilities, the organizers of the project ask quite simple questions: whether the investments correspond to their goals and objectives, whether the planned level of profit is sufficient, how great is the risk of loss, how much money can be invested and in what form. In this case, the method of expert assessments is often used, for which a list of criteria is developed in the form of questionnaires for experts and, depending on the importance for the investor (lender) , corresponding weights are assigned to each of the criteria. As a result of this kind of examination, an integral indicator of the effectiveness of the proposal is obtained, and on its basis a decision is made to continue the consideration of the project or to reject it. This stage of the analysis must meet the following requirements:

Require a minimum investment of time and money;

Provide the opportunity to involve several independent experts;

Get an integral indicator of efficiency, which will allow you to select projects for further analysis.

The pre-feasibility study should be carried out by individuals with basic knowledge of investment analysis. It covers the following sections:

General information on the project;

Analysis of the market for products and the capacity of the enterprise;

Material factors of production;

Placement of the enterprise;

Analysis of enterprise engineering;

Project organization and overhead costs;

Labor resources;

Terms of project implementation;

Financial and economic assessment of the project.

As a result of the preliminary feasibility study, investors have the opportunity to select several best investment options.

After identifying the strengths and weaknesses of each project, they begin to prepare the final Feasibility study... The difference between a pre-feasibility study and a final feasibility study is the degree to which each aspect has been worked through. The final feasibility study contains more detailed and detailed information. Moreover, the design analysis should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the merits and demerits of the analyzed project. Among the most important aspects, the following are usually highlighted:

- The technical aspect, defining the “inputs” and “outputs” of the project from an engineering point of view. Specific goals of the project (type and volumes of products or services, etc.), location of facilities, equipment, technologies and their characteristics, raw materials and standards for their consumption, schedule of project implementation, the likelihood of timely construction of facilities, achievement of expected results, etc. .d .;

- Institutional aspect, covering a wide range of organizational issues and characterizing not only the borrowing organization, its structure, management, personnel, policy, etc., but also the parameters and modes of functioning of the environment in which the body implementing the project operates, its interaction with other counterparties, etc. .d .;

- Financial aspect, studying the costs and benefits in relation to specific firms participating in the project, the purpose of which is to maximize profits. This aspect determines the market efficiency of the project under consideration, while the market prices for produced goods and services, real sources of financing and interest rates on them, the current taxation system and its parameters, etc., are directly taken into account;

- Commercial aspect, based on a system for forecasting the demand for manufactured products;

- Economic aspect, associated with the study of the impact of the project on the development of the relevant sector of the national economy of the country as a whole, that is, a public assessment of the results and costs related to the project;

- Social aspect, the analysis of which in a number of cases is of priority importance, since it significantly affects both the feasibility of the project (in connection with possible social results: instability, employment and unemployment, etc.) and the actual values of costs and benefits.

- Environmental aspect is often one of the defining ones, its accounting requires in a number of regions a significant adjustment of the preliminary planned parameters included in the project of measures. Recently, the environmental aspect has played a very important role, especially for foreign investors, since the problem of environmental protection is of paramount importance abroad.

The project is acceptable for the investor if the following conditions: technological feasibility, long-term viability, economic efficiency, political, social and economic acceptability, organizational and administrative security. When assessing the viability of a project, an investor compares project options in terms of their cost, implementation time and profitability. As a result of such an assessment, he must be sure that the product resulting from the project will maintain a stable demand throughout the entire life cycle, sufficient to set a price that would cover the costs of operation and maintenance of the project facilities, payment of arrears and a satisfactory return on investment. investment.

When conducting a project analysis, any investor is guided by certain principles. For example, a design analysis methodology World Bank uses the following principles:

1. The solution of problems is carried out on the basis of comparing the values of all obtained for life cycle project results and the resources required to achieve them.

2. The basis for calculating cost estimates is based on the principle of alternative cost, arising from the limitedness of all types of investment resources and the unlimited need for them. The meaning of the opportunity cost is that the assessment of the resources used in the project should be based on the maximum possible effect of their use in other directions.

3. When assessing the total values of results and costs for a period (for example, a life cycle), the economic disparity of their asynchronous values is taken into account. This is usually done by discounting costs and benefits at different times, i.e. bringing them to the starting or ending point in time.

4. The project analysis is considered as a multi-stage process, covering all stages of the project cycle.

5. The project analysis is based on a comprehensive assessment of the analyzed project, taking into account such aspects as: technical, institutional, economic, financial, commercial, social, environmental.

6. The design analysis takes into account the structure of the capital used and the financial characteristics of each of its components.

7. From the principle of accounting for the costs of resources at the level of opportunity cost, it follows the zeroization of the assessment of the costs incurred that do not have other areas of use (the so-called sunk or sunk costs)

8. Maximum consideration of additional factors: primarily inflation and investment risk.

9. When checking the feasibility of the project and its effectiveness within the framework of financial analysis, the dynamics of the project is checked throughout the entire life cycle. A typical example is a cash flow table.

The main goal of any enterprise, as you know, is to obtain economic benefits, as well as to build up its potential through investments.

Each of the investment decisions must necessarily be based on a reliable assessment of the company's own financial position and the feasibility of its participation in investment companies, an assessment of funding sources and the volume of investments, as well as forecasting future capital injections from these.

The information base is necessary here for making the main decision on joining one of the investment projects, and finally - regular monitoring of the implementation of this project is carried out through investment analysis, which is an integral part of the entire investment management process.

What is investment analysis, and what tasks and goals does it pursue?

Investment analysis is a certain set of practical and methodological methods and techniques for assessing the feasibility of investing in any projects that investors should take into account when making an effective and correct decision.

Techniques and methods used in investment analysis, these are tools that deeply investigate the processes and phenomena of the investment sphere, and also formulate recommendations and conclusions on their basis.

The applied methods and procedures of this analysis, aimed at identifying alternative ways to solve investment and design problems, identifying the scale of uncertainty for all indicators, as well as their real comparison according to various performance criteria.

As a rule, only a small part of the investment does not give the planned and expected result, and this happens for reasons beyond the direct control of the investor.

A large number of investment projects that turned out to be practically unprofitable could not be allowed to be implemented if, before investing money, the necessary analysis was made.

It turns out that carrying out such an analysis only contributes to an increase in efficiency on time.

It should be noted that the entire investment analysis is a dynamic process that occurs in two planes - subject and time. The subject plane here implies the implementation of the analysis and development of the basic one in versatile substantive aspects.

These aspects include:

economic environment,
correct formulation of the task and purpose of investment,
financial, organizational, marketing and production plans of investors,
availability of a technical base for our investment project,
environmental Safety,
its social significance,
organization of management of this project,
his financial viability,
presence / absence,
as well as the general sensitivity of this project to changes in some individual (significant) factors.

In addition, it is necessary to assess the capabilities of the participants in such a project, as well as the personal and business qualities of its managers. All of the above should be developed at the stage of preparation of initial investment projects, considered during their analysis and taken into account when deciding whether to invest.

In the time plane, work is being performed that continuously ensure the development of the investment project, starting from the emergence of the idea of investing directly until the very completion and profit.

Investment level analysis - master class

Investment analysis functions

The functions of investment analysis include:

development (creation) of an orderly structure that collects data and ensures effective coordination of activities during implementation; regulation of the decision-making process, based on analyzes of alternative options and moreover, prioritizing all the necessary activities and choosing the best technologies for investing; a clear definition of social, environmental, technological, financial and organizational problems that may emerge at various stages of the formation of our investment project; feasible assistance in making an appropriate decision on the feasibility of using investment resources for the future.

Investment analysis - investment objects

As a rule, investment analysis has its own objects, which are differentiated depending on the type of future investment, i.e. financial or capital. In addition, capital investment objects, in turn, may also differ in nature. For example, typical capital investments include costs for equipment, buildings, land, etc.

But in addition to the costs of all kinds of acquisitions, enterprises need to make many other costs that give profit not immediately, but after a certain (sometimes very long) period of time.

These costs include, eg:

investments in the improvement of manufactured products,
in all kinds of research,
development of advertising your product,
training,
reorganization, etc.

Thus, the objects of capital investment analysis are individual projects or their combinations, not excluding investments in reconstructed, under construction or expanding enterprises (companies), as well as buildings and all kinds of structures, in other words - fixed assets.

When analyzing financial investments, all kinds of organizational, legal and financial aspects, for example, bills of the Central Bank, government obligations, corporate bonds and promotions, etc. Financial investments pursue their own goals and objectives aimed at making a profit from dividends or exchange rate differences.

Analysis of both capital and financial types of investments (interrelated economic phenomena) are combined into a general investment, final process. The similarity of the available information databases of analyzes, their types, users of analytical information, the main approaches in the methodology and organization, combine these both directions into a common concept in understanding the content and essence of this analysis as a whole.

Investment analysis - subjects of investment

Investment analysis also presupposes the presence of subjects, i.e. users of analytical information who, in one way or another, are interested in positive results, as well as in the overall achievements of all investment activities. These include, first of all, owners, management personnel, operating personnel, buyers, suppliers, creditors and the state (statistical, tax and other bodies that analyze information in pursuit of their interests).

Investment Analysis Tasks

The main tasks of investment analysis include:

a comprehensive assessment of the availability and needs of the required / existing investment conditions;
substantiation of the choice of their source of funding, and most importantly - prices;
identification of a number of factors: firstly - external, secondly - internal, subjective or objective, which can affect the deviation from the previously planned investment results;
making optimal investment decisions for all, which would strengthen the company's competitiveness and be consistent with its strategic and tactical goals;
determination of all kinds of risks and profitability acceptable for the investors themselves;
carrying out post-investment monitoring and drawing up the necessary recommendations regarding the improvement of the quantitative and, most importantly, the qualitative results of the investment process.

Investment Analysis Objectives

So, the main purpose of any type of investment analysis, is a clear definition of the value of the investment, i.e. the result, after its implementation, which can be represented as the difference between the change in certain benefits that are received from investment during the implementation of investment projects and the formation during this of the total expenditure volumes carried out within the framework of current projects.

Even with the most favorable characteristics of any investment project, it will not be accepted for implementation if the investment analysis reveals that it cannot provide reimbursement of the funds invested by investors, the receipt of a profit that ensures the return on investment, which will not be lower than the level desired by the investors, as well as the return on investment within a timeframe acceptable to investors.

Revealing the reality and ways to achieve the required investment results, these are the general GOALS and OBJECTIVES of our investment analysis.

Investment analysis

Investments and capital investments. Investment project. Budgetary approach and cash flows. Profit and amortization. Cost of capital and interest rates.

Fundamentals of the theory of investment analysis

Kirill Voronov, Voronov and Maksimov Consulting Group

Investments and capital expenditures

In the most general sense, an investment or capital investment means a temporary refusal of an economic entity to consume the resources (capital) at its disposal and the use of these resources to increase its well-being in the future.

The simplest example of an investment is spending money on the acquisition of property with significantly less liquidity - equipment, real estate, financial or other non-current assets.

The main features of investment activity that determine approaches to its analysis are:

Irreversibility associated with the temporary loss of the consumer value of capital (for example, liquidity).

Expectation of an increase in the initial level of welfare.

Uncertainty associated with attributing results to a relatively long term perspective.

It is customary to distinguish between two types of investments: real and financial (portfolio). In the further presentation of the material, we will mainly talk about the first of them.

It should be noted that in the case of real investments, the condition for achieving the intended goals, as a rule, is the use (operation) of the corresponding non-current assets for the production of some products and their subsequent sale. This also includes, for example, the use of the organizational and technical structures of a newly formed business to make a profit in the course of the statutory activities of an enterprise created with the attraction of investments.

Investment project

If the volume of investments turns out to be significant for a given economic entity in terms of influence on its current and future financial condition, the adoption of appropriate management decisions should be preceded by the planning or design stage, that is, the stage of pre-investment research, ending with the development of the investment project.

An investment project is a plan or program of measures related to the implementation of capital investments and their subsequent reimbursement and profit.

The task of developing an investment project is to prepare the information necessary for an informed decision-making regarding the implementation of investments.

The main method for achieving this goal is mathematical modeling of the consequences of making appropriate decisions.

Budgetary approach and cash flows

For modeling purposes, an investment project is considered in a time base, and the analyzed period (research horizon) is divided into several equal intervals - planning intervals.

For each planning interval, budgets are drawn up - estimates of receipts and payments, reflecting the results of all operations performed in this time interval. The balance of such a budget - the difference between receipts and payments - is the cash flow of the investment project at a given planning interval.

If all the components of the investment project are expressed in monetary terms, we get a number of values cash flows describing the process of implementing an investment project.

In the enlarged structure, the cash flow of an investment project consists of the following main elements:

Investment costs.

Proceeds from product sales.

Manufacturing costs.

At the initial stage of the project ( investment period) cash flows tend to be negative. This reflects the outflow of resources that occurs in connection with the creation of conditions for subsequent activities (for example, the acquisition of non-current assets and the formation of net working capital).

After the end of the investment and the beginning of the operating period associated with the start of exploitation of non-current assets, the value of the cash flow, as a rule, becomes positive.

Additional proceeds from the sale of products, as well as additional production costs incurred during the implementation of the project, can be both positive and negative values. In the first case, this may be due, for example, to the closure of unprofitable production, when the decline in revenue is offset by cost savings. In the second case, the reduction of costs as a result of their savings in the course of, for example, equipment modernization, is modeled.

Technically, the task of investment analysis is to determine what the cumulative total of cash flows will be at the end of the established research horizon. In particular, it is fundamentally important whether it will be positive.

Profit and amortization

In investment analysis, the concepts of profit and cash flow, as well as the related concept of depreciation, play an important role.

The economic meaning of the concept of "profit" is that it is a capital gain. In other words, it is an increase in the welfare of an economic entity that controls a certain amount of resources. Profit is the main goal economic activity.

As a rule, profit is calculated as the difference between the income received from the sale of products and services at a given time interval, and the costs associated with the production of these products (services).

It should be specially noted that in the theory of investment analysis the concept of "profit" (however, like many other economic concepts) does not coincide with its accounting and fiscal interpretation.

In investment activities, the fact of making a profit is preceded by the reimbursement of the initial investment, which corresponds to the concept of "amortization" (in English, the word "amortization" means "repayment of the main part of the debt"). In case of investing outside current assets this function is performed by depreciation deductions.

Thus, the justification for the fulfillment of the main requirements for a project in the field of real investments is based on the calculation of the amounts of depreciation and profit within the established research horizon. This amount, in the most general case, will be the total cash flow of the operating period.

Cost of capital and interest rates

The concept of "cost of capital" is closely related to the economic concept of "profit".

The value of capital in the economy lies in its ability to create added value, that is, to make a profit. This value in the corresponding market - the capital market - determines its value.

Thus, the cost of capital is the rate of return that determines the value of managing capital over a certain period of time (usually a year).

In the simplest case, when one of the parties (seller, lender, lender) transfers the right to dispose of capital to another party (buyer, borrower), the cost of capital is expressed in the form of an interest rate.

The value of the interest rate is determined based on market conditions (that is, the availability of alternative options for using capital) and the degree of risk of this option. In this case, one of the components of the market value of capital is inflation.

When calculating in constant prices, the inflationary component can be excluded from the interest rate. To do this, you should use one of the modifications of the well-known Fisher formula:

where r is the real interest rate, n is the nominal interest rate, i is the inflation rate. All rates and inflation rates in this formula are given as decimal fractions and must refer to the same time period.

In general, the amount of the interest rate corresponds to the share of the principal amount of the debt (the principal) that must be paid at the end of the billing period. These types of bets are called simple bets.

Interest rates that differ in the length of the billing period can be compared with each other through the calculation of effective rates or compound interest rates.

The effective rate is calculated using the following formula:

where e is the effective rate, s is the simple rate, N is the number of interest calculation periods within the considered interval.

The most important component of the cost of capital is the degree of risk. It is precisely because of the different risks associated with different forms, directions and periods of capital use that different estimates of its value can be observed in the capital market at any given time.

Discounting

The concept of "discounting" is one of the key concepts in the theory of investment analysis. The literal translation of this word from English ("discounting") means "reduction in value, markdown".

Discounting is the operation of calculating the present value (the English term "present value" can also be translated as "present value", "present value", etc.) of monetary amounts related to future periods of time.

The opposite of discounting - calculating the "future value" of the original amount of money - is called accretion or compounding and is easily illustrated by an example of how the amount of debt increases over time at a given interest rate:

where F is the future, and P is the present value (initial value) of the amount of money, r is the interest rate (in decimal terms), N is the number of interest calculation periods.

The transformation of the above formula in the case of solving the inverse problem looks like this:

Discounting methods are used when it is necessary to compare the values of cash receipts and payments that are spread over time. In particular, the key criterion of investment efficiency - net present value (NPV) - is the sum of all cash flows (receipts and payments) arising during the period under consideration, reduced (recalculated) at one point in time, which, as a rule, is chosen the moment the investment begins.

As it follows from all of the above, the interest rate used in the formula for calculating modern value is no different from the usual rate, which, in turn, reflects the cost of capital. In the case of using discount methods, this rate, however, is usually called the discount rate (possible options: "comparison rate", "barrier rate", "discount rate", "reduction factor", etc.).

A qualitative assessment of the effectiveness of an investment project largely depends on the choice of the discount rate. There are a large number of different methods to justify the use of this or that value of this rate. In the most general case, you can specify the following options for choosing the discount rate:

The minimum return on an alternative way of using capital (for example, the rate of return on a safe marketable security or the rate on a deposit at a safe bank).

The current level of return on equity (for example, the weighted average cost of capital of the company).

The cost of capital that can be used to implement a given investment project (for example, the rate on investment loans).

The expected level of return on invested capital, taking into account all the risks of the project.

The above options for rates differ mainly in the degree of risk, which is one of the components of the cost of capital. Depending on the type of the chosen discount rate, the results of calculations related to the assessment of investment efficiency should be interpreted.

Investment project appraisal tasks

The main purpose of evaluating an investment project is to substantiate its commercial (entrepreneurial) viability. The latter assumes the fulfillment of two fundamental requirements:

Full reimbursement (payback) of the invested funds.

Obtaining a profit, the amount of which justifies the abandonment of any other way of using resources (capital) and compensates for the risk arising from the uncertainty of the final result.

It is necessary to distinguish between two components of the commercial viability of an investment project, its necessary and sufficient condition, respectively:

Economic efficiency of investments.

Financial viability of the project.

An economic assessment or an assessment of the effectiveness of capital investment is aimed at determining the potential of the project under consideration to provide the required or expected level of profitability.

When performing investment analysis, the task of assessing the effectiveness of capital investments is the main one that determines the fate of the project as a whole.

The financial assessment is aimed at choosing a project financing scheme and thereby characterizes the possibilities for realizing the project's economic potential.

When performing the assessment, an economic approach should be followed and only those benefits and losses that can be measured in monetary terms should be considered.

Investment project appraisal stages

The development cycle of an investment project can be represented as a sequence of three stages (stages):

Formulating a project idea

Assessment of the investment attractiveness of the project

Choosing a project financing scheme

At each stage, their own tasks are solved. As you move through the stages, the idea of the project is refined and enriched with new information. Thus, each stage is a kind of intermediate finish: the results obtained on it should serve as confirmation of the feasibility of the project and, thus, are a "pass" to the next stage of development.

At the first stage, the feasibility of the project is assessed from the point of view of marketing, production, legal and other aspects. The initial information for this is information about the macroeconomic environment of the project, the expected sales market for products, technologies, tax conditions etc. The result of the first stage is a structured description of the project idea and a timeline for its implementation.

The second stage turns out to be decisive in most cases. This is where the investment efficiency is assessed and the possible cost of the attracted capital is determined. The initial information for the second stage is the schedule of capital investments, sales volumes, current (production) costs, the need for working capital, and the discount rate. The results of this stage are most often presented in the form of tables and indicators of investment performance: net present value (NPV), payback period, internal rate of return (IRR).

The computer model "PROJECT MASTER: Preliminary Assessment" corresponds to this stage of project evaluation.

The last - the third - stage is associated with the choice optimal scheme financing the project and evaluating the effectiveness of investments from the position of the owner (holder) of the project. For this, information is used on interest rates and loan repayment schedules, as well as the level of dividend payments, etc. The results of the financial assessment of the project should be: a financial plan for the implementation of the project, forecast forms financial statements and indicators of financial soundness. The computer model "PROJECT MASTER: Budgetary Approach" corresponds exactly to this stage of project evaluation.

Any method of investment analysis involves considering the project as a conditionally independent economic object. Therefore, in the first two stages of development, an investment project should be considered separately from the rest of the activities of the enterprise that implements it.

The isolated (local) nature of the consideration of projects excludes the possibility of a correct choice of financing schemes. This is due to the fact that the decision to attract one or another source to finance capital investments is made, as a rule, at the level of the enterprise as a whole or its financially independent unit. In this case, first of all, the current financial condition of this enterprise is taken into account, which is almost impossible to reflect in a local project.

Thus, at large enterprises, the task of choosing a financing scheme for an investment project (at least for projects classified as "large") necessarily goes to the highest level of management. At the level of the middle management, the task of choosing the most effective, that is, the most potentially profitable projects from the available list, remains.

Bibliography

For the preparation of this work were used materials from the site aup.ru/

Investment analysis is part of investment theory. Investing as a process of increasing the investor's capital requires understanding and assessing the feasibility of investing in an investment project, getting an idea of the possible risks in the environment surrounding the invested object and in the object itself. And in the process of investment, the investor needs to analyze the changes occurring in the invested object, find out the compliance with the expected parameters and, on this basis, make decisions about adjusting the investment process. Even after the end of the investment process, it is necessary to analyze the results to study the mistakes and success of investing in order to use them in subsequent investment in other objects.

Investment analysis is a completely independent area of analysis with its own methods and tools, techniques and techniques. Of course, some of its elements are borrowed from financial analysis, some from the analysis of the economic activities of enterprises and organizations, but in general, investment analysis is an independent section of the theory of investment.

The main task of any business is the task of stable profit, which is possible under one indispensable condition - the constant renewal of the production apparatus, if we are talking about real production of products, and not about financial speculation.

Investment in the development of productive capital, which increases the mass of profits, is investment in the real sector of the economy. This process is discrete, since each investment project has its own life cycle, after the end of which, production is renewed with the help of a new investment project.

Investment projects may overlap to create longer life cycles, but innovation remains discrete.

Investment project analysis

Investments and capital expenditures

The simplest example of an investment is spending money on the acquisition of property with significantly less liquidity - equipment, real estate, financial or other non-current assets.

The main features of investment activity that determine approaches to its analysis are:

1. Irreversibility associated with the temporary loss of the consumer value of capital (for example, liquidity).
2. The expectation of an increase in the initial level of welfare.
3. Uncertainty associated with attributing results to a relatively long term perspective.

It is customary to distinguish between two types of investments: real and financial (portfolio). In the further presentation of the material, we will mainly talk about the first of them. It should be noted that in the case of real investments, the condition for achieving the intended goals, as a rule, is the use (operation) of the corresponding non-current assets for the production of some products and their subsequent sale. This also includes, for example, the use of the organizational and technical structures of a newly formed business to make a profit in the course of the statutory activities of an enterprise created with the attraction of investments.

Investment project

If the volume of investments turns out to be significant for a given economic entity in terms of influence on its current and future financial condition, the adoption of appropriate management decisions should be preceded by a planning or design stage, that is, a pre-investment research stage, ending with the development of an investment project.

An investment project is a plan or program of measures related to the implementation of capital investments and their subsequent reimbursement and profit.

The task of developing an investment project is to prepare the information necessary for an informed decision-making regarding the implementation of investments.

The main method for achieving this goal is mathematical modeling of the consequences of making appropriate decisions.

Budgetary approach and cash flows

For modeling purposes, an investment project is considered in a time base, and the analyzed period (research horizon) is divided into several equal intervals - planning intervals.

If all the components of the investment project are expressed in monetary terms, we will receive a series of cash flow values that describe the process of implementing the investment project.

In the enlarged structure, the cash flow of an investment project consists of the following main elements:

1. Investment costs.
2. Proceeds from the sale of products.
3. Manufacturing costs.
4. Taxes.

At the initial stage of the project (investment period), cash flows are usually negative. This reflects the outflow of resources that occurs in connection with the creation of conditions for subsequent activities (for example, the acquisition of non-current assets and the formation of net working capital).

After the end of the investment and the beginning of the operating period associated with the start of exploitation of non-current assets, the value of the cash flow, as a rule, becomes positive.

Profit and amortization

In investment analysis, the concepts of profit and cash flow, as well as the related concept of depreciation, play an important role.

In investment activities, the fact of making a profit is preceded by the reimbursement of the initial investment, which corresponds to the concept of "amortization" (in English, the word "amortization" means "repayment of the main part of the debt"). In the case of investing in non-current assets, this function is performed by depreciation deductions.

Investment performance analysis

The degree of achievement of the maximum result when minimum cost financial resources are called efficiency.

The effectiveness of the investment project is considered as a category that reflects the compliance with the interests and goals of the participants. Financial project that is successful in general may be ineffective or ineffective for its participants.

The effective result of participation in the project is monitored by the ratio of the capital invested in the project, the funds received during the implementation of the project and remaining at the disposal of the participant after compensation of costs and payment to the state, creditors, and so on.

1. Effectiveness of participation in the investment program.
2. The effectiveness of the investment program as a whole.

The effectiveness of the investment program as a whole is determined by the potential attractiveness of the project for the participant and the search for a source of funding. The indicator of the effectiveness of participation in the investment program is determined by both technological, organizational and technical solutions, and the project financing scheme.

The analysis of the effectiveness of investment programs is based on the principles that apply to any project, regardless of their technological, technical, sectoral, regional or financial characteristics:

1. Study of the life cycle of the entire project, from the billing period to the termination of the project.
2. Modeling the flow of products, cash, resources.
3. Comparison of the expected result and costs, focusing on the achievement of income.
4. Using forecast, base and current prices.

The analysis of an effective alternative project, as well as the choice of the best among them, is carried out using the marked indicators, the list of which includes:

The need for funding.
- Profit.
- Discounted profit.
- income.
- Investment income index.
- Index of income of discounted investments.
- investment.

Calculations are performed at forecast and current prices.

The initial stage of project development involves the calculation of current prices. The process of calculating the effectiveness of the investment program as a whole is recommended to be carried out both in forecast and in current prices. In the procedure for developing a financing scheme and evaluating the effectiveness of participation in an investment program, it is recommended to use only forecast prices.

Investment efficiency analysis tasks

In the process of analyzing investment actions, there is a goal to identify all the factors that can negatively affect the achievement of investment results. The factors that are subjective or objective, external, internal, and so on are considered.

The final stage of the analysis of investment efficiency implies the economic justification of those investment decisions that have been chosen for implementation. It should be noted that these decisions should be parallel to the overall strategy of the economy, strengthen and improve the competitive advantage, as well as positively influence the dynamics and pace of development.

Usually, there are two forms or two directions in investment activity. These are portfolio or financial investments and direct investments (capital investments). In this regard, each of the forms implies certain tasks.

Direct investment analysis tasks:

Identification of the needs of an enterprise or organization in the implementation of direct long-term investment.
- Economic justification and search for the necessary sources of investment.
- Analysis of internal and external factors that can influence the achievement of investment results.
- Forecasting the result, in the case of the implementation of the investment idea.
- Development of managerial and other types of decisions to maximize profit and minimize investment risk.
- Control over the implementation and implementation of investment actions and development of improvements.

Financial investment analysis tasks:

Implementation of a set of measures for the assessment and analysis of political and economic information for the implementation of investment financial activities.
- Creation of a body that monitors changes in loan capital and the price of securities.
- Forecasting the future and analysis of the current financial stability of the investment object.
- Optimization and compilation investment portfolio.
- Determination of the acceptable height of profitability in relation to the risk of financial investment.
- Analysis of the degree of efficiency of the investment portfolio.

You need to understand that the implementation of financial and direct investments are parts of one investment procedure. The similarity in their implementation and planning unites data in the overall investment activity.

Investment efficiency analysis methods

Methods for analyzing efficiency (not including discounting) are called the statistical method of analyzing the efficiency of investments. A similar method of investment analysis is based on planned, actual and project indicators of results and costs, the conditionality of which is the implementation of investment projects. This technique is used in a situation where the results and costs are unevenly distributed throughout the year, during the period of application of the investment program.

These techniques include the following options:

1. A method that is based on calculating the payback period of the investment.
2. A method that is based on determining the optimal profit.
3. A method based on calculating the difference between the amount of income and investment costs (one-time costs) for the entire period of use of the investment program. It is called Cash-flow, which means the accumulated balance in the cash flow.
4. The method of comparing the effectiveness of the costs incurred with the productivity of products.
5. The method of choosing an option for capital investment, taking into account the comparison with an increase in financial resources. The perfect method of capital investment efficiency is based on the conclusions of the analysis of investment efficiency, which subsequently makes it possible to introduce and implement such a project that will ensure the investor's compliance with the established norms for the efficiency of capital investment.

Investment analysis of the enterprise

"We should attract and use investment." We hear this expression quite often today. No wonder! Modern world difficult and sometimes there is not enough financial resources. That's when investments come to the rescue.

So what is investment? Even more interesting, what is investment analysis? Let's try to answer these questions.

So, investment is a set of costs (financial, labor), material resources in order to obtain, increase and accumulate profits. In other words, money is for making more money. Thus, investment activity is inherent in any enterprise, regardless of its size, production and form of ownership. The reasons for attracting investments and conducting investment analysis of the enterprise remain the same, namely: the development of new types of activities and new production; increasing production volumes; updating the existing material and technical base.

The importance of analysis for the planning and implementation of investment activities cannot be overemphasized. Therefore, for a more visual presentation of the investment analysis and investment project, it is best to use a cash flow chart.

In general terms, the investment project P is the following model:

P = (ICi, CFk, n, r),
where ICi is an investment in i-th year, i = 1,2,… .., m;
CFk - cash flow to k-th year, k = 1,2,… .., n;
n is the duration of the project;
r is the discount rate.

It must be said that this requires the use of many different calculations and the use of different methods of analysis. This is due to the application of various criteria in the composition of the investment project. Based on this, the analysis of the effectiveness of investments includes: determining the costs of this project; an estimate of expected cash flows at a specific date; risk assessment; grade ; defining performance criteria and comparing expected cash flows with the required investment or project costs.

The set of methods for assessing the effectiveness of investments (such as statistical, dynamic, payback period, accounting rate of return, net worth, profitability index, internal rate of return, discounted payback period) can be divided into two groups: dynamic (taking into account the time factor) and static (accounting) ...

However, during the analysis, one should not forget about the current market situation and the need to collect a large amount of information and data for the analysis. For this, it is necessary that the company has the appropriate specialists dealing with this issue and the investment analysis of the company. If there are no such specialists, then the enterprise can turn to a third-party organization that deals with investment analysis.

Financial investment analysis

Financial and investment analysis of business entities is a set of analytical procedures based on publicly available information of a financial nature and are designed to assess the state and efficiency of using the investment potential of an enterprise, as well as to make managerial decisions regarding the advisability of investing in its activities.

Most researchers, as a definition of the subject of financial and investment analysis, use its expression through the financial condition of enterprises, since it is in it that financial activity, the processes of formation and use of financial resources of an enterprise, are realized, cause-and-effect relationships between them. Consequently, the subject of financial and investment analysis is the financial condition of enterprises - potential investment objects or investors - is reflected through the system of financial and economic information.

The financial condition of an enterprise is understood as its ability to finance its activities. It is characterized by the provision of financial resources, the expediency of their placement and efficiency of use, financial relationships with other legal and individuals, solvency and financial stability.

Financial and investment analysis studies the financial condition of an enterprise as the ratio of various components of assets and liabilities to each other. In addition, he examines the reasons that led to the corresponding level of financial condition, suggests ways to improve it, identifies possible consequences making investments for liquidity, solvency, business and market activity, profitability of the enterprise.

Traditionally, the subject of financial analysis is divided into four basic elements:

Financial relations - relations that cause changes in the composition of assets and liabilities of business entities;
- resources - the composition and structure of the balance sheet asset;
- sources of funding - the composition and structure of the balance sheet liability;
- the results of the use of economic potential - an element that is a criterion for determining the prospects for the development of an enterprise.

In the most general terms, the purpose of financial and investment analysis is a comprehensive assessment of the property and financial condition of an enterprise, its business activity, the search for reserves for its improvement, increasing the efficiency of activities, primarily through financial and real investments.

The specific goal of financial and investment analysis depends on the interests of users of analytical information for internal users in relation to the business entity.This goal is to assess the investment potential of the enterprise, identify investment needs and reserves of financial resources for making investments, assess the effectiveness of investment activities with the position of its impact on quality the financial condition of the enterprise. In turn, the financial and investment analysis of the enterprise by external users of analytical information, first of all, has the goal of the enterprise as an object of potential investment.

In general, the main tasks of financial and investment analysis are: analysis of property status, sources of funding, liquidity and solvency, cash flow, financial stability of business activity, market activity, profitability, a comprehensive assessment of investment attractiveness and creditworthiness. Their logical relationship determines the sequence of analytical procedures and forms a general model of financial analysis of the enterprise.

In the process of financial and investment analysis of subjects, the following main functions are implemented:

Estimated - an objective assessment of the financial condition, financial results, efficiency, investment attractiveness of the object of analysis;
- diagnostic - the establishment of cause-and-effect changes in the financial condition in the quantitative and qualitative measurement of the influence of individual factors;
- search - identifying unused reserves and potential opportunities for improving the financial condition and development of the economic system, substantiating the mechanism for their mobilization;
- constructive - preparation and justification of the adopted management decisions;

The source of information for diagnosing financial condition is financial statements, notes to financial statements, statistical and operational reporting.

Investment analysis methods

To solve the problems of investment analysis, techniques and methods are used that make it possible to quantify the results of investment activity in the context of its individual aspects (both statically and dynamically).

The main methods of investment analysis:

Horizontal;
- vertical;
- comparative;
- coefficient;
- integral.

1. Horizontal (or trend) investment analysis is based on the study of the dynamics of individual indicators of investment activity over time.

The rates of growth (gain) of individual investment indicators are calculated for a number of periods and the general tendencies of their change (or trend) are determined.

In investment analysis, the following types of trend analysis are most widespread:

Study of the dynamics of the indicators of the reporting period in comparison with the indicators of the previous period (month, quarter, year).
- study of the dynamics of the indicators of the reporting period in comparison with the indicators of the same period last year (any month can be selected for the base, for example, the one in which the revenue is greatest and the indicators of this month are compared with the indicators of the same month of the previous year).
- study of the dynamics of indicators for a number of previous periods.

All types of trend analysis are usually supplemented by a study of the influence of individual factors on the change in the corresponding performance indicators of investment activity.

2. Vertical (or structural) investment analysis is based on the structural decomposition of the generalizing indicators of the investment activity of the enterprise.

The specific weights of individual structural components, the change in specific weights, the influence structural breaks.

The following types of vertical analysis are most widely used in investment analysis:

Structural analysis of investments;
- structural analysis of investment resources;
- structural analysis of cash flows from investment activities.

3. Comparative investment analysis is based on the comparison of certain groups of similar indicators with each other.

The values of the absolute and relative deviations of the compared indicators are calculated.

In investment analysis, the following types of comparative analysis are most widespread:

Analysis of the indicators of the investment activity of this enterprise in comparison with the industry average indicators;
- analysis of the indicators of the investment activity of the given enterprise in comparison with the indicators of the competing enterprise;
-analysis of reporting and planned indicators of investment activities.

4. Ratio analysis (R-analysis) is based on the calculation and comparison of various financial indicators of the enterprise among themselves.

Various relative indicators of investment activity are calculated, and their influence on the financial condition of the enterprise as a whole is revealed.

In investment analysis, the following types of coefficient analysis are most often calculated:

Analysis of liquidity and solvency indicators;
- analysis of indicators of financial stability;
- analysis of profitability indicators;
- analysis of business activity indicators.

5. Integral analysis allows you to get the most in-depth (multifactorial) assessment of the investment activities of the enterprise. The following types of integral analysis are most widely used here:

1) Dupont system of integral analysis of the effectiveness of the use of enterprise assets. This analysis system, developed by DuPont (USA), provides for the decomposition of the "return on assets ratio" indicator into a number of private financial indicators, interconnected in a single system.

This system of analysis is based on the "DuPont model", according to which the profitability ratio of the assets used by the enterprise is the product of the profitability of product sales by the asset turnover ratio.

2) the system of SWOT - analysis (SWOT - analysis) of investment activities.

The name of this system is an abbreviation of the initial letters of the terms that characterize the objects of this analysis:

S - strengths of the enterprise;
W- weaknesses of the enterprise;
O - opportunities for the development of the enterprise;
T - threats to the development of the enterprise (trears).

The main purpose of the SWOT - analysis is a comprehensive study of the strengths and weaknesses of the investment activity of the enterprise, as well as the positive and negative influence of certain external factors on the results of the investment activities of the company as a whole in the forecast period.

3) an objective-oriented model of integral analysis of the formation of pure investment activity. The concept of this analysis is based on the use of computer technology and a number of special applications. The main concept is the presentation of the model for the formation of net investment profit in the form of a set of interacting financial blocks that directly form the amount of net investment profit. The user himself forms a system of such blocks based on the specifics of investment activities. After building the model, the user himself fills all blocks with quantitative characteristics in accordance with the reporting information of the enterprise. And the program itself calculates the influence of these blocks on the amount of net investment profit.

For example, the system of blocks that form the net investment profit includes:

Sales revenue,
- volume of sales,
- the amount of own and borrowed investment resources,
- the rate of turnover of the invested working capital,
- the duration of the technological cycle, etc.

The indicators of all the listed blocks are entered into the program, and the program itself calculates the influence of these indicators on the total value of the net investment profit.

4) an integral system of portfolio analysis. This analysis is based on the use of "portfolio theory", according to which the level of profitability of a portfolio of financial investments is considered in one connection with the level of risk of the portfolio (the system "return - risk"). In accordance with this theory, it is possible to reduce the level of risk through the formation of an “optimal portfolio” (appropriate selection of securities) and, accordingly, to increase profitability. It should be remembered that there is a directly proportional relationship between the riskiness and profitability of securities, the more risky investments, the greater the expected profit, the most profitable are venture securities. Once upon a time these included the securities of enterprises engaged in computer technology, cellular etc.

Analysis of the structure and price of capital in investment analysis:

Sources of the formation of investment resources.
- Features of calculating the price of individual sources of capital.
- Weighted average cost of capital.
- Optimization of the structure of sources of financing investment resources.

Investment resources represent all types of monetary and other assets attracted to make investments in investment objects.

All sources of formation of investment resources are divided into three main groups:

Own sources;
- borrowed sources;
- attracted sources.

Own sources include:

Undestributed profits;
- accumulation funds and consumption funds;
- depreciation deductions.

Borrowed sources include:

Long-term loans and borrowings;
- targeted government loan aimed at a specific type of investment;
- investment leasing - one of the types of long-term lending provided in kind and repaid in installments;
- tax investment credit.

Attracted sources include:

Issue of company shares;
- issue of investment certificates - attraction of various investment funds to the investment activities of this enterprise;
- contribution of third-party (domestic and foreign) investors to the authorized capital;
- gratuitous provision by state bodies and commercial structures of funds for targeted financing (for example, subsidies from the federal budget or sponsorship help).

The features of the borrowed capital are as follows:

Debt capital does not change the ownership structure of the firm, but it does mean a change in liabilities. An increase in liabilities means an increase in risk, since unlike dividends, they are protected by a loan agreement (i.e. if dividends, in extreme cases, can not be paid, then the loan must be paid in any case);
- the payment of interest on borrowed capital is exempt from taxation (in Russia - at the discount rate of the Central Bank + 3%), and dividends are paid from net profit;
- raising borrowed capital - as a rule, a cheaper and faster way to invest in a project than raising equity capital (issue of shares);
- the use of borrowed capital leads to an increase in cash flow.

In investment analysis, the "cost (price) of capital" indicator plays a significant role. The cost of capital is the funds paid by the enterprise for the use of financial resources.

When attracting borrowed funds, the borrower must calculate their cost, while effectively financing the individual entrepreneur using borrowed funds, only if the rate of return on the individual entrepreneur is greater than the payment for the borrowed funds.

In investment analysis, when calculating the cost of capital, it is customary to distinguish 4 main sources:

Bank loans and credits;
- ordinary shares;
- preference shares;
- retained earnings;

Each of the named sources has a different cost.

The cost of borrowed capital is determined by the explicit costs of the firm for its acquisition - this is the rate of interest that the company is forced to pay to the lender for the loans. If we are talking about bank loan, then the price of capital is the lending rate (if the company takes 100,000 rubles from the bank at 10% per annum, then the cost of this element will be 10,000 rubles).

However, it is necessary to take into account some peculiarities of borrowed sources of financing. These features include, first of all, the tax effect.

Tax legislation allows costs associated with the payment of interest on a loan to be attributed to the cost of production, i.e. excluded from taxable profit. This assignment saves some of the cash flow.

Analysis of investment attractiveness

V economic literature there is a sufficient number of works by various scientists devoted to the problems of defining and understanding the "investment attractiveness" of an enterprise.

In these works, there is no consensus regarding the definition and assessment of the investment attractiveness of an enterprise. The opinions of Russian authors on this topic are somewhat different, but at the same time they substantially complement each other.

Having studied the existing approaches to the essence of the investment attractiveness of an enterprise, it is possible to systematize and combine existing interpretations into four groups according to the following criteria:

1) investment attractiveness as a condition for the development of an enterprise. The investment attractiveness of an enterprise is the state of its economic development, in which, with a high degree of probability, investments can give a satisfactory level of profitability within acceptable terms for the investor, or another positive effect can be achieved.
2) investment attractiveness as a condition for investment. Investment attractiveness is a combination of various objective features, properties, means, opportunities that determine the potential effective demand for investments in fixed assets.
3) investment attractiveness as a set of indicators. Investment attractiveness of an enterprise is a set of economic and financial indicators of an enterprise that determine the possibility of obtaining maximum profit as a result of capital investment with a minimum investment risk.
4) investment attractiveness as an indicator of investment efficiency.

Investment efficiency determines investment attractiveness, and investment attractiveness determines investment activity. The higher the investment efficiency, the higher the level of investment attractiveness and the larger the investment activity, and vice versa.

Thus, summarizing the above classification, we can formulate the most general definition of the investment attractiveness of an enterprise - this is the system economic relations between business entities on the effective development of business and maintaining its competitiveness.

From the standpoint of investors, the investment attractiveness of an enterprise is a system of quantitative and qualitative factors that characterize the enterprise's effective demand for investments.

Investment demand (together with supply, price level and degree of competition) determines the investment market conjuncture.

In order to obtain reliable information for developing an investment strategy, a systematic approach to studying market conditions is required, starting from the macro level (from the investment climate of the state) to the micro level (assessing the investment attractiveness of a separate investment project). This sequence allows investors to solve the problem of choosing exactly those enterprises that have the best development prospects in the event of the proposed investment project and can provide the investor with the planned return on invested capital from the existing risks. At the same time, the investor considers the affiliation of the enterprise to the industry (developing or depressed industries) and its territorial location (region, federal district). Branches and territories, in turn, have their own levels of investment attractiveness, which include the investment attractiveness of enterprises.

Thus, each object of the investment market has its own investment attractiveness and at the same time is in the "investment field" of all objects of the investment market. The investment attractiveness of the enterprise, in addition to its "investment field", is subject to the investment impact of the industry, region and state. In turn, the aggregate of enterprises forms an industry that affects the investment attractiveness of the whole region, and the attractiveness of the state is formed from the attractiveness of the regions. All changes taking place in higher-level systems (political instability, changes in tax legislation, etc.) directly affect the investment attractiveness of the enterprise.

Investment attractiveness depends both on external factors characterizing the level of development of the industry and the region where the enterprise is located, and on internal factors - activities within the enterprise.

When deciding on the placement of funds, the investor will have to evaluate many factors that determine the effectiveness of future investments. Given the range of options for combining different values of these factors, the investor has to evaluate the cumulative impact and results of the interaction of these factors, that is, to assess the investment attractiveness of the socio-economic system and, on its basis, make a decision on investment.

Therefore, it becomes necessary to quantitatively identify the state of investment attractiveness, and it should be taken into account that for making investment decisions, the indicator characterizing the state of the investment attractiveness of an enterprise must have economic meaning and be comparable to the price of the investor's capital.

Therefore, it is possible to formulate the requirements for the methodology for determining the indicator of investment attractiveness:

The indicator of investment attractiveness should take into account all the factors of the external environment that are significant for the investor;
- the indicator should reflect the expected return on investment;
- the indicator should be comparable to the price of the investor's capital.

The methodology for assessing the investment attractiveness of enterprises, built taking into account these requirements, will provide investors with a high-quality and reasonable choice of an investment object, control the efficiency of investments and adjust the process of implementing investment projects and programs in case of an unfavorable situation.

The investment potential of Russian enterprises is characterized by a satisfactory level of development of production potential, in particular, the growth of the material and technical base of enterprises; an increase in the volume of industrial products and an increase in demand for the products of Russian enterprises; an increase in the activity of enterprises on the securities market and a direct increase in the value of Russian shares; a decrease in the efficiency of management of the enterprise, which is reflected in the values of indicators characterizing the financial condition of enterprises; sufficient volume and qualifications of the workforce; uneven development of enterprises in various industries. The activity of Russian investors is declining, while the interest of foreign investors in industrial enterprises of the Russian economy is increasing.

Investment risks are one of the main factors of investment attractiveness of an enterprise.

Investment risks include the following subspecies of risks: the risk of lost profits, the risk of a decrease in profitability, the risk of direct financial losses.

The risk of lost profit is the risk of indirect (collateral) financial damage (lost profit) as a result of failure to take any action.

The risk of a decrease in profitability may arise as a result of a decrease in the amount of interest and dividends on portfolio investments, on deposits and loans.

The risk of decrease in profitability includes the following types: interest rate risks and credit risks.

There are many classifications of factors that determine investment attractiveness.

They can be divided into:

Production and technological;
resource;
institutional;
regulatory and legal;
infrastructural;
export potential;
business reputation and others.

Each of the above factors can be characterized by different indicators, which often have the same economic nature.

Other factors that determine the investment attractiveness of an enterprise are classified into:

Formal (calculated on the basis of financial statements);
informal (leadership competence, commercial reputation).

Investment attractiveness from the point of view of an individual investor can be determined by a different set of factors that are of greatest importance in choosing a particular investment object.

Investment risk analysis

Investment risk analysis is an integral part of the analysis of the entire investment project. Risk is the likelihood of an adverse event occurring. Investment risk is understood as the likelihood of such an event occurring in which the implementation of the investment project may be in jeopardy. Investment risks can be caused by both external and internal factors, and therefore they can be classified both by their economic essence and, if possible, reduced using various methods.

As a result of the classification by economic essence, which implies the identification of risks by sources of occurrence, two groups can be distinguished:

1) investment risks caused by external (exogenous) factors;
2) investment risks caused by internal (endogenous) factors.

External factors (causes) are associated with the processes taking place in the socio-economic system, and have a constant (systematic) impact on investment. Risks caused by external factors are usually called systemic or systematic. Such risks cannot be mitigated by diversifying investment objects.

Internal factors (reasons) reflect the quality of the enterprise management system and its general, including financial, state. Risks caused by internal factors are usually called unsystematic or unsystematic. Unlike risks caused by external (objective) reasons, non-systemic risks can be mitigated by diversifying investment objects.

Risks caused by both external and internal factors lead to the same result - financial losses, which can be expressed:

1) in the shortfall in the planned income;
2) in non-receipt of the planned income;
3) non-return of part or all of the invested funds (direct loss).

Investment risks are in direct relationship with the profitability of the investment object: the higher the profitability, the higher the risk, and vice versa, the lower the profitability, the lower the risk.

The expert method (the method of expert assessments) involves a risk assessment by a specialist, based on his knowledge, experience in the market and intuition. At the same time, predictive indicators of the profitability of investment assets are used as a measure of risk, including variation - the difference between its maximum and minimum value.

The statistical method involves measuring risks using indicators calculated on the basis of predicted values of the profitability of investment objects, including the range of variation, standard deviation and coefficient of variation.

Investment analysis tasks

The main distinguishing feature of the market economy is the way of allocating resources based on the market mechanism, which, in turn, operates on the basis of the equilibrium model of supply and demand for the necessary resources.

By establishing market equilibrium, the economic system finds answers to the main questions of the economy:

How much to produce goods (services)?
What goods (services) to produce?
For whom are these goods (services) to be produced?
How to produce them?

Operational solutions help to find an answer to the question of what is the size and optimal structure of the organization's expenses, how the rhythm of the supply of raw materials and sales of products affects the progress of the project, whether the professional and qualification level of the personnel involved in the project is sufficient, etc.

Noting the importance of investment development of the economy, the investment analysis itself should be considered as an independent direction of economic analysis. Moreover, it should be presented as a project-oriented economic analysis, the implementation of which mainly depends on the need to justify management decisions on specific investment options.

The purpose of the investment analysis is not only to objectively assess the feasibility of making short- and long-term investments, but also to develop basic guidelines investment policy companies.

- optimal investment decisions that strengthen the competitive advantages of the company and are consistent with its tactical and;
- after investment monitoring and development of recommendations for improving the qualitative and quantitative results of investment.

The analytical substantiation of the process of making managerial decisions of an investment nature is based on the assessment and comparison of the volume of anticipated investments and future cash flows. The general logic of analysis using formalized criteria is to compare the amount of required investment with projected income. Since the compared indicators refer to different points in time, the problem of their comparability becomes key.

The critical points in the process of evaluating an investment project are:

Forecasting sales volumes, taking into account the possible demand for products (since most projects are associated with additional production);
- estimation of cash inflow by years;
- assessment of the availability of the required funding sources;
- assessment of the acceptable value of the cost of capital.

Investment projects analyzed in the capital budgeting process have a certain logic:

First, it is customary to associate a cash flow with each investment project, the elements of which are either net outflows or net cash inflows. The net cash outflow in the analyzed period is understood as the excess of the current cash expenses on the project over the current cash receipts (accordingly, with the opposite ratio, there is a net inflow). Focusing on cash flows, and, for example, not on profit is considered more justified. Profit is a calculated indicator, the value of which can vary significantly depending on a number of factors, including a subjective one. On the contrary, with the help of cash flows the real movement of values is reflected and costs and financial results can be estimated.

However, the use of profit indicators in evaluating investment projects is not completely denied. In the analysis, criteria have been developed that use not a cash flow, but a sequence of predicted values of the net annual profit generated by the project. Thus, any investment project can be represented as a cash flow consisting of two parts. The first of these is investment, i.e. net outflow, which is most often considered a one-off. The second is the subsequent return flow, i.e. a series of receipts distributed over time (net inflows, although net outflows are possible in some years), which make it possible to recoup the initial investment.

Secondly, most often the analysis is carried out by years, although this limitation is not unconditional or obligatory. The analysis can be carried out for equal base periods of any duration (month, quarter, year, etc.), you just need to remember about linking the values of cash flow, interest rate and length of this period.

Third, all investments are considered to be made at the end of the year preceding the first year of the cash flow generated by the project, although in principle the investments could be made over a number of consecutive years. Similarly, it is assumed that an inflow (outflow) of funds takes place at the end of the next year (this logic is quite understandable and justified, since, for example, this is how profit is calculated - on an accrual basis at the end of the reporting period). Thus, in the most general form, an investment project can be represented as a cash flow, the first element of which is a one-time investment (outflow of funds) tied to the end of the year preceding the year of the start of the project's operation, and the subsequent elements are cash inflows (inflows) generated project.

Fourth, the main criteria for evaluating investment projects involve taking into account the time factor. This is done using well-known algorithms used in financial mathematics to streamline the elements of a time-extended cash flow (accumulation and discounting operations). In this case, the discount factor used to evaluate projects must correspond to the length of the period underlying the investment project (for example, the annual rate is taken only if the length of the period is a year).

Thus, a competent investment analysis allows you to evaluate:

Investment project cost;
- the level of its riskiness;
- the economic feasibility of the project based on the calculation of basic performance indicators (NPV, IRR, RT);
- future cash flows by periods of the project life cycle and their current (present) value;
- possible term project implementation;
- the level of the project discount rate of the project;
- structure and volume of investment financing sources;
- the degree of influence of inflation on the main parameters of the project;
- investment attractiveness of the company.

Analysis of investment decisions

Investment decision-making, like any other type of management activity, is based on the use of various formalized and non-formalized methods. In domestic and foreign practice, a number of formalized methods, calculations, with the help of which can serve as a basis for making decisions in the field of investment policy, are known. There is no universal method suitable for all occasions. Nevertheless, having certain estimates obtained by formalized methods, even if to a certain extent conditional, it is easier to make final decisions.

In a market economy, there are many investment opportunities. At the same time, any enterprise has limited free financial resources available for investment. In this regard, the task of optimizing the investment portfolio arises, the problem of analyzing the impact of debt financing on an investment project arises, it becomes necessary to assess the effectiveness of the project in terms of the influence of the capital structure. The main focus is on accounting for the capital structure when financial analysis investment project.

An investment project (IP) is understood as any set of planned measures (technical, organizational, etc.), focused on achieving certain socio-economic goals and requiring the use of capital resources for the implementation. The IP assessment is reduced to comparing the results obtained as a result of the IP implementation and the costs of all types necessary for these purposes.

When evaluating an investment project, the key is the choice of funding sources and the acceptable size of borrowed funds. One of the most fundamental issues in assessing the effectiveness of IP is how much the capital structure (i.e. the absence or availability of external financing) affects the performance of the project and the correctness of the analysis of its effectiveness. To study this issue, you can successfully apply the methods of analysis of IP, which are recommended by the World Bank for making a decision on financing the project.

At the same time, the main emphasis is placed on the applicability of one of the most common methods for assessing the effectiveness of investment projects (and the most reliable, according to most experts in the field of financial analysis, including specialists from the World Bank, namely the method of Net Present Value (NPV)) using capital structure accounting methods.

Project selection is a complex process that requires an integrated approach. And successful activity in the investment sphere depends on how well this process is organized. It is at the selection stage that the greatest number of mistakes is made, which subsequently lead to the loss of invested funds. The selection process involves in-depth analysis and decision-making on investment and financial issues of the project. The results of these decisions are the basis for the financial assessment of the investment project, which, as you know, serves as the basis for selection. But, of course, before making these decisions, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of all investment aspects.

The meaning of the investment project appraisal is to present all the information in a form that allows the decision-maker to make a conclusion about the expediency or inexpediency of the investment.

The decision to invest in a project is determined by the goals set by the company.

The hierarchy of investment objectives (in descending order) is as follows:

1. The profitability of an investment measure (defined as the rate of return on investment; capital investments are made only if the profit from them reaches a certain predetermined minimum).
2. Growth of the company's trade turnover and the share of the market it controls.
3. Maintaining a high reputation of the company among consumers and maintaining a controlled market share.
4. Achievement of high labor productivity.
5. Manufacturing of new products.

The analysis of the project itself is time-consuming and expensive, so the level of detail of such an analysis may vary depending on the requirements of investors or lenders, the possibility of financing and the time allotted for its implementation. It is customary to distinguish three levels of pre-investment analysis: Opportunity Study, Pre-Feasibility Study, and Feasibility Study. The differences between the levels of pre-investment analysis are in the degree of elaboration of the investment and financial aspects of the project.

So, when analyzing opportunities, general issues are considered related to determining the main goals of the initiators of the project and the degree of attractiveness of the area in which investments are directed. Analyzing the possibilities, the organizers of the project ask quite simple questions: whether the investments correspond to their goals and objectives, whether the planned level of profit is sufficient, how great is the risk of loss, how much money can be invested and in what form. In this case, the method of expert assessments is often used, for which a list of criteria is developed in the form of questionnaires for experts and, depending on the importance for the investor (lender), each of the criteria is assigned appropriate weighting factors. As a result of this kind of examination, an integral indicator of the effectiveness of the proposal is obtained, and on its basis a decision is made to continue the consideration of the project or to reject it.

This stage of the analysis must meet the following requirements:

The pre-feasibility study should be carried out by individuals with basic knowledge of investment analysis.

It covers the following sections:

General information on the project;
- analysis of the market for products and the capacity of the enterprise;
- material factors of production;
- location of the enterprise;
- analysis of the engineering of the enterprise;
- project organization and overhead costs;
- labor resources;
- the timing of the project;
- financial and economic assessment of the project.

As a result of the preliminary feasibility study, investors have the opportunity to select several best investment options.

After identifying the strengths and weaknesses of each project, the preparation of the final feasibility study begins. The difference between a pre-feasibility study and a final feasibility study is the degree to which each aspect has been worked through. The final feasibility study contains more detailed and detailed information. Moreover, the design analysis should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the merits and demerits of the analyzed project.

Among the most important aspects, the following are usually highlighted:

The technical aspect that defines the “inputs” and “outputs” of the project from an engineering point of view. Specific goals of the project (type and volumes of products or services, etc.), location of facilities, equipment, technologies and their characteristics, raw materials and standards for their consumption, schedule of project implementation, the likelihood of timely construction of facilities, achievement of expected results, etc. .d .;
- Institutional aspect, covering a wide range of organizational issues and characterizing not only the borrowing organization, its structure, management, personnel, policy, etc., but also the parameters and modes of functioning of the environment in which the body implementing the project operates, its interaction with other counterparties, and etc .;
- The financial aspect, which studies the costs and benefits in relation to specific firms participating in the project, the purpose of which is to maximize profits. This aspect determines the market efficiency of the project under consideration, while taking into account the market prices for the goods and services produced, the real sources of financing and their interest rates, operating system taxation and its parameters, etc .;
- The commercial aspect, based on a system for forecasting the demand for manufactured products;
- The economic aspect associated with the study of the impact of the project on the development of the relevant sector of the national economy of the country as a whole, that is, public assessment of the results and costs related to the project;
- The social aspect, the analysis of which in some cases has a priority value, since it significantly affects both the feasibility of the project (in connection with possible social results: instability, employment and unemployment, etc.), and the actual values of costs and benefits;
- The environmental aspect is often one of the defining ones, its taking into account requires in a number of regions a significant adjustment of the preliminary planned parameters included in the project of measures. Recently, the environmental aspect has played a very important role, especially for foreign investors, since the problem of environmental protection is of paramount importance abroad.

A project is acceptable for an investor if the following conditions are met: technological feasibility, long-term viability, economic efficiency, political, social and economic acceptability, organizational and administrative security. When assessing the viability of a project, an investor compares project options in terms of their cost, implementation time and profitability. As a result of such an assessment, he must be sure that the product resulting from the project will maintain a stable demand throughout the entire life cycle, sufficient to set a price that would cover the costs of operation and maintenance of the project facilities, payment of arrears and a satisfactory return on investment. investment.

When carrying out a project analysis, any investor is guided by certain principles.

For example, the World Bank project analysis methodology uses the following principles:

1. The solution of problems is made on the basis of comparing the values of all the results obtained during the life cycle of the project and the resources required to achieve them. At the same time, it is envisaged that the assessment of results should be higher (not less) than the assessment of costs both for the project as a whole and for each of its participants.
2. The basis for calculating cost estimates is based on the principle of alternative cost, arising from the limitedness of all types of investment resources and the unlimited need for them. The meaning of the opportunity cost is that the assessment of the resources used in the project should be based on the maximum possible effect of their use in other directions.
3. When assessing the total values of results and costs for a period (for example, a life cycle), the economic disparity of their asynchronous values is taken into account. This is usually done by discounting costs and benefits at different times, i.e. bringing them to the starting or ending point in time.
4. The project analysis is considered as a multi-stage process, covering all stages of the project cycle.
5. The project analysis is based on a comprehensive assessment of the analyzed project, taking into account such aspects as: technical, institutional, economic, financial, commercial, social, environmental.
6. The design analysis takes into account the structure of the capital used and the financial characteristics of each of its components.
7. From the principle of accounting for the cost of resources at the level of opportunity cost, it follows the zeroing of the assessment of the costs incurred that do not have other uses (the so-called sunk or sunk costs).
8. Maximum consideration of additional factors: primarily inflation and investment risk.
9. When checking the feasibility of the project and its effectiveness within the framework of financial analysis, the dynamics of the project is checked throughout the entire life cycle. A typical example is a cash flow table.
10. Evaluation of project effectiveness is not done by comparing the situation before the project and after the project, but by comparing the situations with the project and without the project. The difference in approaches comes down to the understanding that in the production process - even without a project - there are significant changes in the structure and amount of capital investments that are not captured in the first approach, which leads to distortions in the calculation of benefits and costs attributable to the project.
11. The flows of local and foreign currencies in the analysis of the dynamics are analyzed separately.

Purpose of investment analysis

The activity of any firm, one way or another, is associated with the investment of resources in various types of assets, the acquisition of which is necessary for the implementation of the main activities of this firm. But to increase the level of profitability, the firm can also invest temporarily idle resources in various types of assets that generate income, but are not involved in the main activity. Such activity of the firm is called investment, and the management of such activity is called investment management of the firm.

Purpose of investment analysis

Until recently in economics there has not yet been formed a clear, holistic understanding of investment analysis as an independent research area within the framework of economic analysis. In the course of formulating and solving a set of tasks related to the problems of implementing long-term capital investments, there is a need for analytical substantiation of financial, investment and operational decisions at the same time.

Financial decisions include the solution of questions about from what sources, in what volume and under what conditions long-term investments can be financed.

Among the decisions of an investment nature is the optimal distribution of own and borrowed resources among the possible areas of economic activity, certain types of assets; what is their structure, turnover period, appropriate level of risk, etc.

The objectives of investment analysis are:

Comprehensive assessment of the need and the availability of the required investment conditions;
- a reasonable choice of funding sources and their prices;
- identification of factors (objective and subjective, internal and external) that affect the deviation of the actual investment results from those planned earlier;
- optimal investment decisions that strengthen the competitive advantages of the company and are consistent with its tactical and strategic goals;
- risk and profitability parameters acceptable to the investor;
- post-investment monitoring and development of recommendations for improving the qualitative and quantitative results of investment.

Investment market analysis

Investment activity in a market economy is an entrepreneurial activity, that is, it is carried out by economic entities in the investment market in order to generate income (profit).

The investment market is a set of economic relations that develop between sellers and buyers of investment goods and services. The goods in this market are objects of investment activity. In accordance with their classification, the investment market is structurally divided into a number of relatively independent segments.

First, the property market real investment:

A) real estate market - industrial facilities, housing, small privatization facilities, land plots, construction in progress, rent;
b) the market for direct capital investments - new construction, reconstruction, technical re-equipment;
c) the market for other objects of real investment - artistic values, precious metals and products, other material values;

Secondly, the market for financial investment objects:

G) stock market- shares, government bonds, options and futures;
e) money market - deposits, loans and credits, currency values;

Third, the market for innovative investment objects:

E) the market for intellectual investments - licenses, know-how, patents;
g) the market for scientific and technical innovations - scientific and technical projects, innovation, new technologies.

This classification of the investment market allows for a more complete analysis and forecasting of its development in the context of individual segments, to determine priority investment objects at one stage or another. economic development country.

The degree of activity of the investment market (the ratio of its elements) is determined by studying the market situation. It is a form of manifestation in the investment market as a whole or its individual segments of factors (conditions) that determine the relationship between demand, supply, prices and the level of competition. Studying the conjuncture of the investment market is especially important for investors due to the high risks that entail a decrease in income, and often a loss of invested capital.

The sequence of actions when studying the conjuncture of the investment market can be represented by the following steps:

Assessment and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators of investment market development;
- assessment and forecasting of investment attractiveness of sectors (sub-sectors) of the economy;
- assessment and forecasting of investment attractiveness of regions;
- assessment of the investment attractiveness of individual investment projects, segments of the investment market;
- development of a strategy for the investment activity of the firm;
- formation of an effective investment portfolio of the company, including both real capital investments and financial and innovative investments;
- management of the investment portfolio of the company (including diversification of investments, capital reinvestment, etc.).

As with any market, segments of the investment market are characterized by four main stages of its development - an upswing in the market, a boom in the market, a period of stability, and a downturn. But it is important to note that these stages are not synchronous for different segments of the investment market. This makes it possible to overflow investment capital from the objects of investment in the market on the decline to the objects of the market on the rise. In addition, within the same market, for example, stocks, there is a different conjuncture of different stocks, which also creates the prerequisites for optimizing the investment activities of the company in order to obtain a stable and high income.

The study of the conjuncture of the investment market takes place in three stages. At the first stage, ongoing monitoring of investment activity is carried out. This requires the formation of a targeted system of indicators characterizing individual elements of the market (demand, supply, prices, competition), as well as the organization of their constant monitoring. The second stage is an analysis of the investment market conditions and identification of current trends in its development. The task of this stage is to identify those changes that occur in the market at the time of observation. The third stage is forecasting the investment market conditions to select the main directions of the investment strategy. The main task of this stage is to develop a forecast in the dynamics of factors affecting the state of the investment market in the future.

The world practice of working in investment markets already has a developed system of indicators of the investment attractiveness of individual markets and objects; ratings of investment objects, assessed by experts, are regularly published.

Such an assessment is a market-based tool for optimizing the flow of capital investments and is carried out by many consulting firms, banks and even government agencies (for example, in the United States, the Department of Commerce). The estimates of the Euromoney magazine, obtained on the basis of a survey of specialists from the largest banks, are very authoritative, in particular. The assessment is carried out on nine economic, political and financial indicators, the aggregate of which forms the final result. Macroeconomic forecasts, the values of various risks (loan defaults, non-payments, nationalization and confiscation of property), creditworthiness indicators, features of banking policy, the role of the state in foreign economic activity are taken into account.

In our country, this practice of assessment is just beginning to develop. This is determined by the initial stage of the formation of the investment market, the difficulty of obtaining reliable information, as well as the very situation of a deep investment crisis caused by factors of both cyclical and transformational nature associated with the transitional state of the economy.

Macroeconomic study of the investment market is aimed at assessing the country's investment climate, which is understood as a set of economic, social, political, state and cultural conditions that ensure the commercial attractiveness of investments.

It includes the study of forecasts:

Dynamics of gross domestic product, national income and industrial output;
- the dynamics of the distribution of national income (accumulation and consumption);
- development of privatization processes;
- legislative regulation of investment activities;
- development of individual investment markets, especially the stock and money markets.

The study of the investment attractiveness of individual sectors of the economy is aimed at studying their conjuncture, dynamics and prospects of society's needs in the products of these sectors. Each type of products of the enterprises of the industry in development goes through a certain life cycle, including birth, growth, expansion, maturity, decline. Naturally, investment is preferable to the 2nd and 3rd of the indicated stages. The needs of society determine the priorities in the development of individual industries. Thus, in modern Russia, the fuel and energy complex, oil refining and petrochemistry are considered promising; providing the population with food; transport, communications and telecommunications; housing construction.

The main indicator for assessing the investment attractiveness of industries is the level of profitability of the assets used, calculated in two versions:

Profit from the sale of products (goods, services), referred to the total amount of assets used;
- balance sheet profit related to the total amount of assets used.

It is important, however, to keep in mind that research on the given indicators gives, in a certain sense, a momentary assessment. Investment attractiveness should be considered taking into account inflationary processes and the dynamics of changes in bank interest rates on loans. It is also necessary to assess the prospects for the development of the industry and subsectors (sustainability of development, provision of financial and other resources, the degree of state support), levels of investment risks (competitiveness of enterprises and industry products, the level of social tension in the industry, etc.).

Overall score the investment attractiveness of industries (sub-sectors) acts as an integral indicator. It is calculated by summing the products of the values of individual indicators by their significance (in percentages or fractions of a unit). In this case, factors should be taken into account that are not assessed quantitatively, but qualitatively. Thus, industries are ranked according to predicted performance indicators or based on industry ratings. The meaning of the latter is that on the basis of understanding the indicators characterizing a particular industry, a kind of artificial structure is formed - an industry that is the best in all respects, that is, an aggregate of the best values of indicators (from among those observed across the entire set of industries). And the closer this or that real industry is to the ideal, the higher its rating.

The assessment and forecasting of the investment attractiveness of regions is carried out in the same sequence as the investment attractiveness of industries. However, both the assessment indicators and the forecasting factors are different here. The fact is that products and enterprises of the same industry (sub-industry) located in different regions can have very different attractiveness. It depends on such points as location, development of the transport network, characteristics of social conditions, development of infrastructure, natural and climatic conditions, availability of resources, etc.

The assessment of the investment attractiveness of the regions is carried out according to various significant factors, and the indicators of the region are compared with the national averages. Such an assessment can be made both for all factors equally, and they can be ranked according to the degree of significance. It depends on the specific region, the formulation of the task of forecasting the investment attractiveness, the choice of a certain industry-specific investment direction, etc.

Further deepening in the assessment of investment attractiveness involves assessing the segments of the investment market (real, financial and innovative, specific projects, enterprises, facilities). Thus, the assessment of the investment attractiveness of an operating company, first of all, involves the identification of its life cycle. It is viewed as a sequential change in the stages of growth - instability - survival. The determination of the stage of the life cycle is carried out through dynamic analysis. For these purposes, over the past several years, the indicators of the dynamics of the volume of production, sales volume, the amount of assets, etc. are analyzed. Companies that are in the stage of growth are considered to be investment attractive.

Along with these, the assessment of the company's investment attractiveness presupposes an extensive financial analysis of its activities. Such an analysis, supplemented by a financial forecast, makes it possible to assess the possible profitability and terms of return of the invested funds, as well as to identify the most significant risks in terms of financial consequences. In the process of financial analysis can be considered various aspects of the firm. However, to assess its investment attractiveness as an investment object, the analysis of liquidity and asset turnover, financial stability and capital profitability are of priority importance.

Fundamentals of Investment Analysis

Investing in land, manufacturing equipment, natural resources, product development, marketing programs and other assets to generate future income are part of the company's strategic movement.

The choice of investment projects should reflect the desired development of the company and take into account:

Expected economic conditions;
market development prospects;
competitiveness of the company.

A variety of investment options are practically available to most firms.

The many steps involved in identifying, analyzing and selecting a potential investment are commonly referred to as capital budgeting. This process includes several stages, from identifying possible options, testing ideas, to accurate economic analysis. The main problem in this case is to choose from the available limited funds those investments that promise to give the desired level of return with an acceptable degree of risk. The investment portfolio is formed in order to receive cash flows in the future in the form of dividends, interest on deposits and gradually return the investment through the sale of an investment instrument.

Thorough identification of the problem that will be solved with the help of this investment project, determination of possible alternatives to the proposed investment is a decisive moment for correct analysis. In most cases, there are two or three ways to achieve investment goals, and careful analysis of specific circumstances can reveal many more solutions. For example, the decision to replace a machine at the end of its service life suggests a definite answer: yes or no.

The most obvious alternative, as in any other case, is to do nothing (that is, continue to load the machine until it is decommissioned). At the same time, the operating costs will be higher than if they bought a new car. A number of other alternative options can be proposed, but one thing is clear that for any option, the costs should be calculated so as not to lose a higher profit. The economic calculations used to justify any investment should be based on projects and projections of future costs. The success of investments with a time horizon of 2, 5, 15 and even 25 years depends entirely on future events and their uncertainty. This forces the analyst to predict the likely changes in today's conditions for all significant variables of the analysis. If the potential changes are large, the analysis should be performed under various assumptions, thus testing the sensitivity of the quantitative results to changes in individual variables (sales volume, prices and cost of raw material components).

Uncertainty of future conditions affecting the amount of the investment is the risk of mismatching the expectation of receiving insufficient economic profit or even economic loss. Careful analysis and research helps to narrow the range of errors in the predictable conditions on which the analysis is based.

The economic justification for each capital investment is strictly based on additional changes arising from the investment decision. Moreover, the analysis recognizes only cash flows, that is, the cash effect of the positive or negative cash flows generated by the investment. Any accounting transactions related to the investment decision, but not affecting cash flows, are immaterial for the purpose of justifying the project.

This raises questions, the first and the main one: what funds will be required to implement the chosen alternative? For example, an investment option may, in addition to investing in new equipment, include selling or otherwise disposing of assets that are no longer needed. This decision may lead to the release of some previously borrowed funds. In this case, the net investment should be determined after the post-tax amount received for the assets sold has been calculated.

Similarly, the following question arises: what will be received additional income in addition to the existing ones? If the investment results in new income, then at the same time the investment will reduce some of the existing income, for economic analysis only the net income determined taking into account taxation will remain valid.

The third question relates to the costs that arise or disappear as a result of the investment. Here, for the analysis, only those costs are important, including taxes, which will increase or decrease as a result of the investment decision.

Investment analysis uses data to a large extent accounting, not all of which are relevant to the research purposes. A clear distinction should be drawn between those elements of expenditure that actually change when making an investment, and those that only seemingly change.

For example, for accounting purposes, general overhead costs can be considered distributed in proportion to the number of products of each type or in proportion to labor costs. In the first case, a new machine with a higher productivity will incur more overhead costs than the machine it replaced.

However, it is clear that the actual change in overhead did not occur when one machine was replaced by another. Thus, the ostentatious change in this item is immaterial for the purposes of economic analysis.

Orienting economic analysis towards the future requires a sound business case. To do this, it is necessary to recognize the relationship between the time of receipt of additional cash inflows and outflows, on the one hand, and the value of these cash outflows in relation to the moment of making decisions on investments, on the other. It does not require proof that the ruble received today is worth more than the ruble received a year later. Thus, the value of money in time refers both to the time of receipt and expenditure, and to the ability to earn income for any investment funds... In this regard, it is required to resort to the method of converting the relative values of these future flows into the value of today. The process of expressing future rubles in the form of their equivalent to today's rubles is called discounting. It is the basis of all modern investment analysis methods.

Based on the above rules, in essence, capital is invested in order to generate economic income to justify the initial investment. This main trade-off between today's capital investment and expected future returns, one way or another, is recognized by all methods of analysis.

To judge the attractiveness of any investment project, four elements should be considered:

Cost - net investment;
potential cash benefits - net cash inflow from activities;
the period during which the investment project is expected to generate an expense - the life cycle of the investment;
any capital release at the end of the term economic life investment - residual value.

From the ratio of these four elements, the correct economic analysis should determine whether the project is really worth considering.

The first element of analysis, net investment, usually consists of the total capital required for new assets minus the value of any assets released. The exemption should be adjusted for any change in taxes that arises from the recognition of gains or losses on the sale of existing assets.

The immediate basis for generating income during the life cycle of an investment project is the net change from period to period in the income and expenses caused by it after adjusting for taxes. These additional changes include elements such as savings in operating resources due to equipment replacements, additional profits from a new product, increased profits from the purchase of new equipment, or profits from better utilization. natural resources.

The third element is the life cycle of the investment project. For the purposes of investment analysis, the only important period is the life cycle as opposed to the physical life of the equipment and the life of the technology. Even if a building or piece of equipment is in excellent condition, the investment life cycle ends as soon as the market for that product or service disappears.

Liquidation value represents the release of capital through the gradual sale of assets towards the end of their useful lives. If the amount of release is significant, then it should be entered into the analysis. This release can be obtained from the equipment, as well as from the release of any working capital related to the project.

Investment analysis development

In development investment theory several stages can be distinguished. The initial appearance of the rudiments of investment theory in the works of representatives of the Austrian economics school(Böhm-Bawerk). Further, you can name the stage related to the 20-30s. this century is the period of the birth of the theory of finance as a science. This stage is represented, first of all, by Irving Fisher's founding work on the theory of interest rates. In the works of Williams, a theoretical approach to the valuation of capital assets was proposed. This topic will become one of the leading in financial theory for a long time.

An important feature of the work of the pre-war period is the adoption of the hypothesis about the complete certainty of the conditions in which financial decisions are made. The mathematical tools used in the financial analysis of that time were reduced to elementary algebra and the beginnings of analysis. The combination of these funds, focused on carrying out financial calculations in conditions of certainty, is called financial mathematics. Despite the dominance of the deterministic approach, the importance of uncertainty and risk factors in financial problems was clearly recognized. Already in 1921, Knight's work contained an analysis of these factors in the context of the theory of finance, albeit a purely qualitative one. However, only the use of quantitative, theoretical and probabilistic methods made it possible to make significant progress in the study of the influence of risk on investment decisions. Works in this direction are called modern investment theory.

It should be noted that, describing the history of the emergence and formation of investment science, many researchers ignore the whole stage in the development of economic theory associated with the period of the so-called Keynesian revolution.

In his work " General theory employment, interest and money ”, published in 1936 by J.M. Keynes put forward three motives for keeping savings in cash (liquid) form.

Transactional (operational) motive, determined by the need to carry out transactions, that is, the ability to buy goods, services, factors of production from each other. We can conventionally designate the demand for money, determined by the transaction motive, through the parameter M1 and define it as a function of M1 = M1 (P, Q, R), where P is the general price level; Q is the volume of gross domestic product; R is the interest rate.

The speculative motive reflects the desire not to satisfy the material needs of the owners of savings, but to place them more profitably. Determining the form of existence of savings, the subject takes into account mainly fluctuations in interest rates, knowing the formulas for the price of shares and bonds: stock price = dividend / interest; bond rate = income / interest. Thus, we can introduce a second parameter that determines the demand for money: M2 = M2 (R1), where R1 is the average level of interest rates.

The precautionary motive, which is associated with the risk of losing capital: if an individual believes that the interest rate in the future will increase so much that today's investments of savings in securities will become unprofitable, then he will keep savings in monetary form(reducing the risk, albeit depriving the possible income). The precautionary motive is close to the speculative demand for money and can be reflected in the parameter M3 = M3 (R1).

Thus, J. Keynes was the first to introduce the problem of portfolio selection into economic theory. Yes, it did not receive formal completion and was not singled out by him as a separate direction in economic theory, it really existed in a very simplified form, since it was designed to answer the question of the choice of an individual in only two options (cash monetary assets and securities). But his research in this area really pursued the goal of finding out what the optimal structure of assets of a given entity should be (the ratio of the shares of cash and securities). And although John Keynes did not make research within the framework of the concept of portfolio choice the central direction of his work, he nevertheless came to a rather definite conclusion: the analysis of his expectations should become the main factor in solving the problem of optimality of an individual's portfolio.

Much credit in Keynesian theory belongs to the concept of the multiplier. Translated from English, the word "multiplier" means "multiplier". The main thing in the theory of the multiplier is to determine the role of investment in the growth of national income and employment. J. Keynes draws attention to the fact that an increase in investment causes the involvement of additional workers in production, that is, it increases employment, and with it, income and consumption. According to J. Keynes, the multiplier indicates that an increase in the total amount of investment causes an increase in income by an amount that is K times greater than the increase in investment.

Analysis of investment processes

In teopii yppavleniya invectitsionnymi ppotseccami vydelyaetcya tpi ypovnya iepapxii invectitsionnogo management natsionalnoy ekonomike: makpoypoven (ypoven ctpany in tselom) mezoypoven (ypoven otdelnyx pegionov) and mikpoypoven (ypoven otdelnoy koppopatsii, fipmy, ppedppiyatiya).

Glavnaya zadacha teopii, izychayuschey invectitsionnye ppotseccy - iccledovanie pytey and nappavleny THEIR aktivizatsii, pazpabotka metodologii adekvatnoy ekonomicheckoy otsenki invectitsy nA vcex pepechiclennyx ypovnyax iepapxii invectitsionnogo menedzhmenta, pozvolyayuschey oppedelyat and obocnovyvat for potentsialnyx invectopov naibolee effektivnye nappavleniya vlozheniya THEIR kapitalov, a for ychactnikov invectitsionnogo ppotsecca, initiating investment projects and proposals and realizing them are options for the most effective use of investments.

The main tasks of the investment manager at the macro level are:

1) formation and maintenance of government investment policy;
2) the formation of the normative-legal field of investment processes in the Russian economy;
3) the formation of the investment climate of the Russian state;
4) determination of the composition of the participants of the investment market of Russia and the rules of its functioning;
5) determination of the priorities of government investment policy, etc.

For oppedeleniya ppiopitetov invectitsionnyx potokov, yavlyayuschegocya odnoy of glavnyx zadach invectitsionnogo menedzhmenta nA makpoypovne natsionalnoy ekonomiki, neobxodim ppognoz pazvitiya invectitsionnoy cfepy nA ee astray to pynky.

This is purposefully based on the extreme measure for three reasons:

Vo-pepvyx, invectitsionnaya cfepa and tecno cvyazannoe c ney kapitalnoe ctpoitelctvo ppizvany obecpechit yckopennoe cozdanie and Software Update ocnovnyx fondov natsionalnoy ekonomiki, ppednaznachennyx for ctabilizatsii and pazvitiya ppoizvodctva and pesheniya nacyschnyx cotsialno-ekonomicheckix ppoblem. The role of this sphere of activity is especially important during the period of the structural adjustment of the country's economy and its withdrawal from a critical state.

Vo-vtopyx, pockolky cyschnoctyu invectitsionno-ctpoitelnoy deyatelnocti yavlyaetcya ocyschectvlenie pazlichnyx invectitsionnyx ppogpamm and ppoektov, verily imenno eta cfepa, kak vo vcem mipe, tak and nashey ctpane, yavlyaetcya tpaditsionnoy cfepoy effektivnogo yppavleniya ppoektami. It is here that a wealth of experience has been accumulated and there is a whole range of methods and tools for managing projects that can already be efficient and effective.

Thirdly, in the terms of the current reform, the investment sphere itself undergoes the same changes.

The most important of them are:

1) the structural adjustment of the country's economy, including the investment policy;
2) the distribution and privatization of organizations and enterprises and the transformation of their production and organization structures;
3) the dissolution of the structure of centralized management and regulation of investment activity, constructional composition and its mathematical performance;
4) change of economic mechanisms and transition to economic methods of management;
5) demonopolization of production and sales and the emergence of new markets and competition;
6) changing the control and regulation system in this sphere and many others.

Mezoypoven natsionalnoy ekonomiki or ypoven otdelnogo pegiona - cybekta fedepatsii - dolzhen paccmatpivatcya, c odnoy ctopony, HOW camoctoyatelny, c tochki zpeniya teopii invectitsionnogo menedzhmenta, acpekt yppavleniya invectitsiyami, c dpygoy - HOW cvyazyyuschee zveno mezhdy makpo- and mikpoypovnem, pockolky imenno in pegionax pealizyetcya public investment policy, developed and supplemented by regional investment policy.

The regional investment climate reflects the degree of hospitality of the city prevailing in the region in terms of investment rates. Its level is determined by the calculation of the general evaluation of the terms, which serve as a basis for taking appropriate inventory decisions. Obobschennaya otsenka invectitsionnyx ppotseccov pegiona dolzhna vklyuchat analiz nakoplennogo nA ego teppitopii ekonomicheckogo potentsiala, a takzhe otsenky ypovnya ego icpolzovaniya in pazpeze otdelnyx cybektov potentsiala (ppedppiyaty) and pazpeze ppofilnyx for konkpetnogo pegiona nappavleny ego icpolzovaniya (otpacley and podotpacley). For such a purposeful analysis, it is advisable to select the most consistent facilities of the region, which define in the main its profile and formulate the results of the Russian Federation.

The third level of the hierarchy of investment management in the Russian economy is the micro level - the level of a separate enterprise, corporation, company, etc. Podem pocciyckoy ekonomiki nepazpyvno cvyazan c aktivizatsiey invectitsionnyx ppotseccov nA mikpoypovne, pockolky imenno zdec ocnovnoe ppednaznachenie invectitsy - podnyatie and pazvitie ppoizvodctva, yvelichenie ego moschnoctey, texnologicheckogo ypovnya. Of prime importance is the flow of investments in the real sector of the economy, including in the basic sectors of the national economy, before all It is here that the tasks of a clear-cut adjustment of the economy and an increase in its efficiency are solved;

Long-term capital investment or investment is one of the forms of using the ability of capital to make its owner profit.

From the point of view of the owner of the capital, the investment implies a refusal from the receipt of a profit today in the name of its future use. Operations of this kind are analogous to the provision of a system by a bank.

Apparently, in order to make a decision about a long-term supply of capital, it is necessary to provide information, in one or another step of the next two

The invested funds must be fully covered;
- ppibyl, polychennaya in pezyltate dannoy opepatsii, dolzhna be doctatochno velika chtoby kompencipovat vpemenny otkaz From icpolzovaniya cpedctv, a pick takzhe, voznikayuschy in cily neoppedelennocti konechnogo pezyltata.

Takim obpazom, ppoblema ppinyato pesheniya Ob invectitsiyax nA mikpoypovne coctoit in otsenke Planá ppedpolagaemogo pazvitiya cobyty c tochki zpeniya togo, nackolko codepzhanie Planá and vepoyatnye pocledctviya ego ocyschectvleniya cootvetctvyyut ozhidaemomy pezyltaty. For the implementation of this problem, investment projects are being developed and are currently in progress. In general, an investment project is a plan or program of capital investment for the purpose of subsequent profit. The problem of project management must take over the entire investment cycle - from the moment of initialization of the investment idea to its full implementation.

The analysis of the investment process is aimed at shaping the investment policy of the state.

The purpose of the state investment policy is:

Ensuring structural restructuring of the economy;
- stimulating entrepreneurship and private investment;
- creation of additional jobs;
- attracting investment resources from various sources, including foreign investment;
- stimulating the creation of non-state structures to accumulate money savings of the population for investment purposes;
- creation of legal conditions and guarantees for the development of mortgage lending;
- development of leasing in investment activities;
- support for small and medium-sized businesses;
- improving the system of benefits and sanctions in the implementation of the investment process;
- creating conditions for the formation and development of venture investment.

Based on the analysis, the investment climate of the regions is determined. The category "investment climate" is quite subjective, but, nevertheless, it allows you to determine the external investment environment in which the investment process is supposed to be carried out, while traditional methods of attracting investments are based on taking into account individual factors that characterize certain areas of development of an enterprise, region, country generally.

The analysis is based on the assessment of macroeconomic indicators, such as: the dynamics of gross domestic product and the volume of industrial production; the dynamics of the distribution of national income, the proportion of accumulation and consumption; the state of legislative regulation of investment activities; development of individual investment markets, including the stock and money markets.

Macroeconomic analysis determines the general development trends of the country; characterized by relationships with other countries, the level of the exchange rate. In the conditions of Russia, this factor determines the stability of the economic system for investment, since the linkage of all calculations to the dynamics of the exchange rate is high. Based on data on the balance of payments, dynamics and composition of exports and imports, an investor can identify the most necessary types of goods and services and direct funds to the development of import-substituting industries. At the same time, the structure of exports characterizes the area of the highest priority domestic industries. By the level of the exchange rate and its dynamics, one can judge the level of expected profit, stability of production and sales.

Investment analysis object

The objects of investment analysis are specific types of real and financial investments that are analyzed by the subject. The objects of investment analysis can be distinguished depending on whether the analysis is carried out on real investments or financial investments.

Real investment objects can be different in nature. A typical investment object can be the costs of land plots, buildings, equipment. In addition to the costs of various kinds of acquisitions, the company also has to incur numerous other costs that give profit over a long period of time. These costs include, for example, investments in research, product development, advertising, distribution network, company reorganization and staff training.

Thus, the objects of analysis of real investments are individual projects or their combinations, including investments in under construction, reconstructed or expanded enterprises, buildings, structures (fixed assets); objects of nature management; intangible assets; land plots and current assets.

The objects of analysis are also the economic entity as a whole and its investment attractiveness and financial stability.

Factors of the macroenvironment, financial and social development trends are analyzed national economy, the state of the financial market.

In the analysis of financial investments, the objects of analysis are various organizational, legal and financial aspects of investing in securities (corporate shares and bonds, government obligations, promissory notes The central bank).

The object of analysis is selected depending on what are the reasons that prompted the investor to make this investment.

They can be different, but in general they can be combined according to the principle of income generation:

Real investments are carried out in order to reduce the cost of production;
- financial investments are carried out with the aim of obtaining income from exchange rate differences or dividends.

The reasons for the need for real investment can be different, and in general they can be divided into three types:

1) updating the existing material and technical base;
2) increasing the volume of production activities;
3) development of new types of activity.

The degree of responsibility for making investment decisions within these areas is different. When it comes to replacing existing production facilities, the decision can be made quite painlessly, since the management of the enterprise clearly understands the extent and with what characteristics new fixed assets are needed. If we are talking about investments related to the expansion of core activities, the task becomes more complicated, since it is necessary to take into account a number of new factors: the possibility of changing the position of the group in the goods market, the availability of additional volumes of material, labor and financial resources, the possibility of developing new markets, etc.

The owner of a security receives income from its possession and disposal. Income from the disposal of a security is the income from the sale of it when it exceeds the par or original value at which it was acquired. Income from owning a security can be obtained different ways.

These include:

Fixed interest payment;
- step interest rate;
- floating rate of interest income;
- income from indexation of the par value of securities;
- income from a discount (discount) when purchasing a security;
- income in the form of loan winnings;
- dividend.

Fixed interest payment is the simplest form of payment. However, in the context of inflation and rapidly changing market conditions, over time, income that remains unchanged in terms of level of income loses its attractiveness. The use of a graduated interest rate is that several dates are set after which the owner of the security can either redeem it or leave it until the next date. In each subsequent period, the interest rate increases. The floating interest rate changes regularly (for example, once a quarter, half a year) in accordance with the dynamics of the discount rate of the Central Bank of Russia or the level of yield on government securities placed through an auction sale.

As an anti-inflationary measure, securities with a par value indexed according to the consumer price index can be issued. Some securities may not pay interest. Their owners receive income due to the fact that they buy these securities at a discount (discount) against their face value, and redeem at face value.

For certain types of securities, regular draws can be carried out, and based on their results, the owner of the security is paid a prize.

Dividends represent earnings per share generated from earnings joint stock company(or other issuer) that issued the shares. The amount of the dividend is not constant. It depends primarily on the amount of profit.

The subjects of investment analysis are those who carry out the analysis. These include the various structural divisions of the investing company: accounting, finance, marketing, chief engineer, chief technologist, procurement and capital construction, economic planning and legal department, environmental control service.

The subjects of investment analysis are also the departments of project financing and lending of commercial banks.

If we are talking about financial investments, then the subjects of analysis are the departments of operations with securities of commercial banks, financial brokers, financial managers of investment and non-state pension funds, insurance organizations, auditing and consulting firms, state control bodies, private investors.

On the basis of the analytical data obtained, the subjects of investment analysis make management decisions.

The classification of common investment decisions can be presented as follows:

Mandatory investments, i.e. those that are necessary for the company to be able to continue its activities:
- reduction of harm to the environment;
- improvement of working conditions.
Investments aimed at reducing costs:
- improvement of applied technologies;
- improving the quality of products, works, services;
- improvement of labor organization and management.
Investments aimed at expansion and renewal of the company:
- new construction (construction of facilities that will have the status of a legal entity);
- expansion of the company (construction of facilities in new areas);
- reconstruction of the company (implementation of construction and installation work on existing areas with partial replacement of equipment);
- technical re-equipment (replacement and modernization of equipment).
Purchasing decisions:
- the formation of strategic alliances (syndicates, consortia, etc.);
- takeover of firms;
- the use of complex financial instruments in transactions with fixed assets.
Solutions for the development of new markets and services.
Decisions on the acquisition of intangible assets. Management decisions about the advisability of investments (especially real ones), as a rule, refer to decisions of a strategic nature. They require careful analytical justification. Let's designate the factors complicating the making of an investment decision.

Any investment requires the concentration of a large amount of funds, while any company experiences limited financial resources for investment.

Investments, as a rule, do not give immediate returns, and as a result, there is an effect of immobilizing equity capital, when funds are dead in assets, which, perhaps, will begin to bring profit only after a while. Therefore, any investment presupposes that the company has a certain "financial fat" that allows it to painlessly go through the stage of the formation of a new business (division, technological line, etc.).

In the overwhelming majority of cases, investments are made with the attraction of borrowed capital, and therefore it is necessary to justify the structure of sources, assess the cost of their maintenance and formulate arguments to attract potential investors.

The plurality of available (alternative or mutually exclusive) options for capital investment. Naturally, there is a need to compare these projects and select the most attractive of them according to some criteria.

There is a risk associated with making a particular investment decision. Investment activities are always carried out in conditions of uncertainty, the degree of which can vary significantly. For example, when new property, plant and equipment is acquired, it can never be accurately predicted economic effect this operation. Therefore, decisions are often made on an intuitive logical basis, but, nevertheless, they must be supported by economic calculation.

Investment Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis is carried out in order to take into account and forecast the impact of changes in input parameters (investment costs, cash flow, barrier rate, reinvestment level) of an investment project on the resulting indicators.

The most convenient option is a relative change in one of the input parameters (for example, all cash inflows minus 5%) and an analysis of the changes that have occurred in the resulting indicators.

For sensitivity analysis, the main thing is to assess the degree of influence of changes in each (or their combination) of the input parameters in order to foresee the worst development of the situation in the business plan (investment project).

Thus, the usually pessimistic, most probable and optimistic forecasts are considered and the results of the investment project are calculated.

The results of the sensitivity analysis are taken into account when comparing interchangeable and non-complementary (non-interchangeable with maximum budget restrictions) investment projects. All other things being equal, the investment project (s) is selected that is least sensitive to deterioration of input parameters.

Sensitivity analysis is not about reducing the risk of an investment, but about showing the consequences of misjudging certain values. Sensitivity analysis alone does not change risk factors.

Investment portfolio analysis

Portfolio analysis is carried out if it becomes necessary to intervene in the investment cycle. All indicators of the portfolio are analyzed: the level of profitability, the remoteness of the return on investment, the degree of risk, the amount of required investment resources, and the intended use.

Investment portfolio analysis is one of the most critical stages of portfolio management. It includes the calculation and assessment of direct and indirect indicators. Direct indicators are divided into preliminary (cost, investment attractiveness) and calculated (net present value, internal rate of return, profitability, profitability, payback period). Indirect indicators can be divided into reputation (term of operation / circulation, number of portfolio elements) and expert (liquidity, assessment of the investment environment, assessment of trends).

Methods for assessing the effectiveness of an investment portfolio are based primarily on comparing the effectiveness (profitability) of investments in various investment values, depending on their weights. Investments in the most reliable and liquid investment values are available as possible alternatives to the investments made.

From the position of the corporation, the implementation of an investment project can be represented in the form of two interrelated processes:

Investing in an investment portfolio;
- receiving income from invested funds.

These two processes proceed sequentially (with or without a gap between them) or in parallel at some time interval. In the latter case, it is assumed that the return on investment begins even before the completion of the investment process. Both processes have different distributions of intensity over time, which largely determines the efficiency of investments.

The direct object of analysis and determination of the economic efficiency of the investment portfolio are direct financial flows (сash flow). In the case of financial investments, the intensity of the resulting flow of payments is formed as the difference between the cost of purchasing securities and net income. Net income is understood as income received in each time interval, minus all payments related to its receipt (current costs of portfolio management, taxes).

Net income is calculated using the formula:

BH = D - R,

Where
NP - net income;
D - income from investment values in the portfolio;
P - expenses incurred to generate income.

When analyzing an investment portfolio, the effectiveness is assessed by calculating direct calculated indicators or criteria for the effectiveness of an investment portfolio. Expenses and incomes, posted over time, are brought to one (base) point in time. The base point in time is usually the date determined based on the characteristics of the investment value (for financial investments - the date of purchase of a financial asset, for real - the date of the start of production of products, and for intellectual - the date of the start of scientific activity).

The procedure for bringing non-simultaneous payments to the base date is carried out using discounting. When choosing a discount rate, they are guided by the existing or expected average level of lending interest. The discount rate used in a market economy depends on: the economic situation, the prospects for the economic development of the country, the world economy and is the subject of serious research and forecasts.

The analysis of an investment portfolio is the definition and calculation of indicators, the values of which allow, with a certain probability, to determine the attractiveness of a particular investment value.

The set of indicators depends on the following characteristics of the project:

Total cost;
- implementation period;
- the planned number of elements of the investment portfolio.

To calculate the main indicators, the starting date of the formation of the investment portfolio is usually taken as the base moment for bringing the non-simultaneous payments.

To assess the efficiency of production investments, the following indicators are usually used: net present value, internal rate of return, payback period of capital investments, project profitability and break-even point. For stock investments: yield to maturity, dividend rate, liquidity, dynamics of market value. The listed indicators are the results of comparisons of income distributed over time with investment and production costs.

Yield to maturity is one of the main indicators for assessing the attractiveness of a particular security. This indicator is calculated as the ratio of the amount of income per ruble of invested funds. It allows you to evaluate the effectiveness of investments and compare different securities with each other. The yield to maturity is calculated as the ratio of the income paid on the security to the cost of its acquisition. If it is necessary to calculate the current yield, the redemption price is replaced by the current market value of the security. Thus, at any moment in time, you can measure the current value and profitability of the investment portfolio.

The dividend rate is used to assess the attractiveness of corporate shares in the financial market. It is usually viewed in dynamics and allows you to judge the amount of profit received. F. Modigliani and M. Miller investigated the influence of the policy of paying dividends on the stock prices of corporations.

In doing so, the following assumptions were used:

Perfect capital markets;
- the dividend payment policy does not affect the investment budget of the company;
- the behavior of all investors is rational.

It is concluded that the dividend payment policy and capital structure do not affect the company's value, that is, they are neutral. This means that the profit directed to the payment of dividends reduces the opportunities for investing in new assets. This decrease can be offset by the issue of shares. The new shareholders will need to pay dividends. These payments reduce the present value of expected dividends for the previous owners by an amount equal to the amount of dividends they received in the current year. Therefore, each currency unit the dividend received deprives shareholders of future earnings by a discounted equivalent amount. Thus, the dividend policy will not have any impact on the share price.

Liquidity. Like any investment value, each security has a certain price at each moment in time, that is, the present value. This cost depends on many parameters, but almost always it indirectly reflects the position of the issuer. The liquidity of a security reflects the level of losses upon immediate sale of the security. In this regard, liquidity can be measured as the ratio of the bid price and the bid price. The smaller this difference, the more liquid the security and vice versa.

The dynamics of the market value. Each security has a certain market value on the exchange or over-the-counter market... The market value reflects the real value of the security, therefore it may differ from the nominal value. The dynamics of the market value shows how the preferences of participants in the securities market change in relation to a particular security. If the market value fluctuates along with fluctuations in stock indices, then the security has an average reliability. If the market value of a security is growing, then we can conclude about its investment attractiveness and vice versa.

There are various models for forecasting market value. However, as with any forecast, the results of the forecasted market value may be unreliable because there are too many factors influencing the market.

Average rate of income per invested capital that you have to pay for its use. The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is an indicator that characterizes the cost of capital. The difference between the WACC and the bank rate is that this indicator does not imply equal payments. The investor's total presentable income must be equal to the sum of equal interest payments at a bank rate equal to the WACC.

WACC is widely used in investment analysis for discounting expected return on investments, calculating payback of projects. Discounting future cash flows at a rate equal to the WACC characterizes the depreciation of future income from the point of view of a particular investor. The profit received by the holders of shares and debt is the value of the debt, which depends on the market value of that obligation, as well as the value of a share, which depends on the market value of these shares. The average value determined according to the market value is called the weighted average cost of capital.

If the capital contains preferred shares with their own value, then the formula will include additional terms for each source of capital.

The weighted average cost of capital reflects the expected return on a portfolio of all securities in a company. The weighted average cost of capital is used as the minimum rate of return on capital investment.

The main purpose of the WACC is to use this value as a discount factor for budgeting investments. Since in this case we are talking about investing new funds, then forecast estimates become important for analysis, including in relation to the cost of capital.

The share price can be determined using the Capital Asset Profitability Assessment Model (CAPM). It links systematic risk and portfolio return. This model is based on the assumption that the difference in profit is a necessary degree of risk, but only that part of the difference that is not subject to diversification is rewarded. The model identifies the difference that is not subject to diversification and associates the expected return with a given degree of risk.
Investment activities

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