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(IP) is associated with activities (organizational, technical, etc.) aimed at achieving certain goals (economic, social, environmental, etc.) and requiring the use of capital resources for their implementation. The most important appraisal categories are the costs and benefits of all types of projects, the definition and comparison of which is the core of the appraisal procedures. investment projects.

First, a preliminary survey of the project is carried out, during which the purpose of the project and its compliance with the current and projected activities of the enterprise are determined. The preliminary survey also determines the risks associated with the project, whether the enterprise has the necessary experience to realize the opportunities created by the project. At the same stage, the criteria that will be used to evaluate the investment project are determined.

In the process of analysis and evaluation, it is necessary to solve the following main tasks:

1. Assessment of the feasibility of the project, that is, the possibility of its implementation, taking into account all the existing restrictions of a technical, financial, economic and other nature.
2. Evaluation of the absolute effectiveness of the project, that is, checking the fulfillment of the condition: the significance of the results achieved is higher than the significance of the required costs (expenditure of resources).
3. Evaluation of the comparative effectiveness of projects (optimization), that is, a comparison of alternative projects (options) in order to select more appropriate ones, to determine the advantages of some projects (options) over others. Within the framework of this task, the ranking of projects or their sets can be carried out, which is used in optimizing the adoption of investment decisions, variations of exogenous parameters (for example, the size of investment opportunities).

In the system of principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, three structural groups can be distinguished:

Methodological principles, that is, the most general, related to the conceptual side of the matter and little dependent on the specifics of the project under consideration;
methodological principles, that is, those that are directly related to the project, its specifics, economic and financial attractiveness of the project;
operational principles, that is, those that facilitate the process of evaluating the effectiveness of the project from an information-computing point of view.

Methodological principles

1. The effectiveness of the project (means the positive effect of its implementation, i.e. the excess of the assessment of the components of the results over the assessment of the total costs required for the implementation of the project).

2. Adequacy and objectivity: when evaluating the results and costs, it is necessary to ensure the correct reflection of the structure and characteristics of the object in relation to which the project is being considered, taking into account the degree of unreliability and uncertainty objectively inherent in the future.

3. Correctness: the assessment methods used must satisfy certain general formal requirements, which include:

Monotonicity, i.e. with an increase in results and a decrease in costs, the assessment of the effectiveness of the project, all other things being equal, should increase;
- antisymmetry, i.e. when comparing two projects, the quantitative expression of the magnitude of the advantages of one of them must coincide with the expression of the magnitude of the disadvantages of the other;
- transitivity, i.e. if the first project is better than the second, and the second is better than the third, then the first must be better than the third.

4. Consistency: taking into account the fact that the project "fits" into a complex social and therefore, during its implementation, internal, external, as well as synergistic (determined by the integrity of the system and the interaction of its subsystems) effects can take place.

5. Complexity: when evaluating the effectiveness of projects, it is necessary to take into account the diverse consequences of their implementation - not only in the economic, but also in the social, environmental and other non-economic spheres, and to determine the appropriate types and magnitudes of results and costs.

6. Limited resources: when evaluating the effectiveness of projects, it is necessary to proceed from the condition that all types of non-reproducible and reproducible resources are limited, i.e. the prices of resources used to calculate the value of costs should include the lost profit associated with the possible alternative use of resources. Therefore, a zero estimate of the effect obtained during the implementation of the project does not indicate its unprofitability, but means that the resources are used no worse (but not better) than they could be used in an alternative direction.

7. Unlimited needs: the limited resources available can always potentially find an effective direction, because the total need for resources is unlimited.

Methodological principles

1. Specificity of the project: it is necessary to take into account the peculiarity of the current economic mechanism, its influence on the evaluation of the project by various participants in order to choose a "compromise" solution based on the coordination of their interests.
2. The presence of various project participants predetermines the discrepancy between their interests, which implies the need to assess the effectiveness of the project from the standpoint of each participant.
3. Dynamism of processes: when evaluating the effectiveness of a project, it must be taken into account that both the structure and the characteristics of the objects included in it do not remain constant; inflation has a big impact.
4. The disparity of non-synchronous costs and results involves bringing their values to a comparable form using the method.
5. Consistency: it is necessary to take into account the scale of projects, which, in accordance with this feature, are "small", "large-scale" and "global"; "good" and "weakly structured".
6. Limited controllability, incl. past, already incurred and sunk costs.
7. Incompleteness of information, which occurs both in the form of risk and uncertainty, which requires the use of special assessment methods.
8. Capital structure: capital is usually divided into equity (equity) and borrowed, they have different degrees of risk (borrowed is less risky), which determines the choice of the discount rate.

Operational principles:

1. Simulation, i.e. drawing up (simulation or optimization) economic and mathematical model for evaluating efficiency. In the simplest case, these are direct counting models.
2. Computer support - the formation of a database, the use of software systems and the implementation of multivariate calculations.
3. Interactive mode - a dialogue to clarify the influence of various factors.
4. Simplification, i.e. choice of the most simple evaluation method from the information-computational point of view.

The main indicators used to compare various investment projects (project options) and choose the best of them are indicators of the expected integral effect (economic at the level of the national economy, commercial at the level of a separate organization). The same indicators are used to justify the rational sizes and forms of reservation and

TYPES AND PRINCIPLES OF ASSESSING THE EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

International practice Evaluation of the effectiveness of investments is based on the concept of the time value of money and is based on a number of principles:

1. The effectiveness of the use of invested capital is assessed by comparing the cash flow (cash flow), which is formed in the process of implementing the investment project and the original investment. The project is recognized as effective if the return of the initial investment amount and the required return for the investors who provided the capital are ensured.

2. Invested capital, as well as cash flow, is adjusted to the present time or to a certain accounting year (which, as a rule, precedes the start of the project).

3. Discounting process capital investments and cash flows are carried out at different discount rates, which are determined depending on the characteristics of investment projects. When determining the discount rate, the structure of investments and the cost of individual components of capital are taken into account.

The effectiveness of the project is characterized by a system of indicators that reflect the ratio of costs and results in relation to the interests of its participants.

There are the following indicators of the effectiveness of the investment project:

Indicators of commercial (financial) efficiency, taking into account the financial consequences of the project implementation for its direct participants;

Budget performance indicators reflecting the financial implications of the project implementation for the federal, regional or local budget;

Indicators economic efficiency, taking into account the costs and results associated with the implementation of the project, which go beyond the direct financial interests of the participants in the investment project and allow for cost measurement.

During the development of the project, an assessment is made of its social and environmental impacts, as well as the costs associated with social activities and environmental protection.

The evaluation of future costs and results in determining the effectiveness of an investment project is carried out within the calculation period, the duration of which (calculation horizon) is taken into account:

- the duration of the creation, operation and (if necessary) liquidation of the object;

– weighted average standard service life of the main process equipment;

– achievement of the specified characteristics of profit (mass and/or rate of return, etc.);

– investor requirements;

The calculation horizon is measured by the number of calculation steps. The calculation step in determining performance indicators within the calculation period can be: month, quarter or year.

The main principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investments, applicable to all types of investment projects, also include:

1. consideration of the project throughout its entire life cycle(billing period);

2. modeling cash flows per billing period taking into account the possibility of using different currencies;

3. comparability of conditions for comparing different projects (options);

4. ensuring positivity and maximum effect;

5. Consideration of the time factor:

- splitting the billing period into steps. In this case, it is necessary to take into account: the purpose of the calculation; the duration of the various phases of the life cycle, so that the main stages coincide with the beginning of the step; price change during the step. A change in the range of 5-10% is recommended; the visibility of the output information, the convenience of its evaluation.

– accounting for dynamics. It is necessary to take into account the change in the parameters of the project over time, as well as the gaps in time between the production of products and the receipt of resources, the production of products and their sale.

6. comparison of the received data on the project with the situation without the project;

7. taking into account all the most significant consequences of the project;

8. taking into account the presence of different project participants, the discrepancy between their interests, various estimates of the cost of capital;

9. multi-stage evaluation;

10. taking into account the impact of the need for working capital;

11. taking into account the impact of inflation and the possibility of using several currencies;

12. taking into account the influence of uncertainty and risk.

The basis for IP efficiency assessments is based on the following basic principles applicable to any types of projects, regardless of their technical, technological, financial and sectoral or regional features:

consideration of the project throughout its life cycle (settlement period) - from conducting pre-investment studies to terminating the project;

cash flow modeling , including all cash receipts and expenses related to the implementation of the project for the billing period, taking into account the possibility of using different currencies;

comparability of comparison conditions various projects (project options);

principle of positivity and maximum effect. In order to IP, from the investor's point of view, was found to be effective, it is necessary that the effect implementation the project that generates it was positive; when comparing alternative IPs, preference should be given to the project with the highest effect value;

taking into account the time factor . When evaluating the effectiveness of the project, various aspects of the time factor should be taken into account, including the dynamism (change in time) of the parameters of the project and its economic environment; gaps in time (lags) between the production of products or the receipt of resources and their payment; disparity of costs and / or results at different times (preference for earlier results and later costs);

accounting only for future expenses and receipts. When calculating performance indicators, only future costs and revenues during the implementation of the project should be taken into account, including costs associated with attracting previously created production assets, as well as future losses directly caused by the implementation of the project (for example, from the termination of the current production in connection with the organization of a new one in its place). Previously created resources used in the project are not estimated by the cost of their creation, but by opportunity cost ), reflecting the maximum value of the lost profit, related to their best possible alternative use. Past, already incurred costs that do not provide the possibility of obtaining alternative (i.e., received outside the project) income in the future (sunk cost, sunk cost) are not taken into account in cash flows and do not affect the value of performance indicators. This applies specifically to performance evaluation. In other cases, such as when determining a share in equity, accounting for past costs may be necessary.

comparison "with the project" and "without the project". Evaluation of the effectiveness of the IP should be made by comparing the situations not "before the project" and "after the project", but "without the project" and "with the project";

taking into account all the most significant consequences of the project. When determining the effectiveness of an IP, all the consequences of its implementation, both directly economic and non-economic (external effects, public benefits), should be taken into account. Where their impact on performance can be quantified, it should be quantified. In other cases, this influence should be taken into account by experts;

accounting for the presence of different project participants , discrepancy between their interests and different estimates of the cost of capital, expressed in individual values of the discount rate;

multi-stage evaluation . At various stages of project development and implementation (justification of investments, feasibility study, selection of a financing scheme, economic monitoring), its effectiveness is determined anew, with different depths of study;

taking into account the impact on the IP efficiency of the need for working capital , necessary for the functioning of the production assets created during the implementation of the project; (Issues of the impact of the need for working capital on performance indicators were not previously considered in project documentation. At the same time, working capital can significantly affect the efficiency of investment projects, especially in the presence of inflation. Therefore, the Recommendations pay great attention to calculating the need for working capital Oh)

taking into account the impact of inflation (taking into account changes in prices for different kinds products and resources during the project implementation period) and opportunities use of several currencies in the implementation of the project;

taking into account (in quantitative form) the impact of uncertainties and risks , accompanying the implementation of the project.

Before evaluating the effectiveness, the social significance of the project is determined by experts. Large-scale, national economic and global projects are considered socially significant.

At the first stage the performance indicators of the project as a whole are calculated. The purpose of this stage is an aggregated economic assessment of design solutions and the creation necessary conditions to find investors. For local projects, only their commercial efficiency and if it is acceptable, it is recommended to proceed directly to the second stage of the assessment. For socially significant projects, their social effectiveness is evaluated first of all. With unsatisfactory public efficiency, such projects are not recommended for implementation and cannot qualify for state support. If their social effectiveness is sufficient, their commercial effectiveness is evaluated.

If the commercial effectiveness of a socially significant IP is insufficient, it is recommended to consider the possibility of using various forms of support for it, which would increase the commercial effectiveness of the IP to an acceptable level.

If the sources and terms of financing are already known, the evaluation of the commercial effectiveness of the project can be omitted.

Second stage of evaluationefficiency carried out after the development of the financing scheme. At this stage, the composition of the participants is specified and the financial feasibility and effectiveness of participation in the project of each of them is determined, except for creditors, the effectiveness for which is determined by the percentage of the loan (regional and sectoral efficiency, the effectiveness of participation in the project of individual enterprises and shareholders, budgetary efficiency, etc.) .

For local projects at this stage, in accordance with Sec. Tables 6 and 8 determine the effectiveness of participation in the project of individual enterprises-participants, the effectiveness of investing in the shares of such joint-stock enterprises and the effectiveness of budget participation in the project (budgetary efficiency). For socially significant projects at this stage, first of all, regional efficiency is determined in accordance with Sec. 7 and if it is satisfactory, further calculation is carried out in the same way as for local projects. If necessary, at this stage, the sectoral efficiency of the project can also be assessed in accordance with clause 7.3.

The effectiveness of investment projects and individual activities is evaluated to determine the feasibility of investments. To do this, the information obtained during the project analysis is analyzed using a series of procedures and rules that help the decision maker to conclude that the investment is profitable in terms of maximizing returns and minimizing risk.

It should be emphasized that an investment project can be considered as isolated if it is formed under the chosen idea, which does not exclude the possibility of improvement. In any case, we are talking about one direction of investment, which excludes the possibility of considering other options for investing in different areas of the company's development, despite their possible attractiveness.

If the company faces the problem of choosing a development strategy and maximizing income, then it is necessary to consider alternative projects that outline different ways to achieve the same goal within a given period of time. For example, income can be increased both by updating technological equipment and by improving the organization and production technology of the existing assortment. In other words, the firm must first choose the direction of investment and only then consider the effectiveness of an investment project.

Another thing to keep in mind is that all costs and benefits associated with the implementation of projects are of a monetary nature.

Thus, the project is considered effective if it meets the following conditions:

the net profit from investment exceeds the profit from investments in a bank deposit;

the rate of return on investment is higher than the rate of return;

the efficiency of the project, taking into account the time factor, is higher than the efficiency of alternative projects;

return on assets of the enterprise after the implementation of the project increases and at least exceeds the average interest rate bank loan; the project is based on marketing research, outlining the line of behavior of the enterprise in the market of goods and services, taking into account the potential capacity of the market and its main segments, effective demand, sales volumes;

environmental aspects were taken into account, including the forecast and cost assessment of environmental measures;

the social consequences of the project implementation are taken into account, namely: a change in the number of jobs in the administrative-territorial entity, a change in the working conditions of workers, an improvement in the housing and cultural and living conditions of workers, a change in the structure of production personnel, etc.

The financial viability and economic efficiency of the project are considered as key indicators.

financial viability, or commercial appraisal, characterizes the solvency of the project, the inflow P(t) and outflow O(t)Money(English cash flow).

Initial data for evaluation economic efficiency are made or planned cash receipts and payments.

Cash inflow is formed at the expense of income from the sale of products (services), non-operating income, proceeds from the issue of shares and attraction of funds on a repayable basis, etc.

outflow determined by investment costs, current costs, payments to the budget, maintenance foreign debt(payment of interest and repayment of loans), etc.

Thus, to assess the effectiveness of projects, a system of indicators is used that reflects the ratio of costs and results in relation to the interests of its participants.

commercial (financial) efficiency, taking into account the financial implications of the project implementation for its direct participants;

budget efficiency, reflecting the financial implications of the project for the federal, regional or local budgets;

economic efficiency, taking into account the costs and results associated with the implementation of the project, go beyond the direct financial interests of the participants in the investment project and allow for a cost measurement. For large-scale (significantly affecting the interests of the city, region or the whole of Russia) projects, it is recommended to evaluate the economic efficiency.

When determining the effectiveness of an investment project, future costs and results are evaluated within the calculation period, the duration of which (calculation horizon) are taken into account:

the duration of the creation, operation and, if necessary, liquidation of the facility;

weighted average standard service life of the main process equipment;

achievement of the specified characteristics of profit (mass and/or rate of return, etc.);

investor requirements.

The calculation horizon is measured by the number calculation steps, which, when determining performance indicators within the calculation period, can be a month, quarter or year.

The costs of the participants are divided into initial (one-time, capital-forming), carried out during the construction phase, current, related to the operational stage, and liquidation, associated with liquidation.

Capital-forming costs is defined as the amount of funds required for the construction (expansion, reconstruction, modernization) and equipping of invested facilities, the cost of preparing capital construction and increase in working capital necessary for the normal functioning of enterprises. In aggregate, these costs consist of the following items:

acquisition or lease of land;

preparation of the construction site;

design work;

pre-operational capital works;

acquisition of machinery and equipment;

construction of buildings and engineering structures; increase in working capital;

unexpected expenses.

For valuation results and costs use basic, world, forecast and settlement prices.

Under basic prices (Cb) understand those that have developed in the country's economy at a certain point in time t b. The base price for any product or resource is considered unchanged throughout the entire billing period. Economic efficiency should be measured in basic prices at the stage of feasibility studies of investment opportunities.

Forecast price P(t) product or resource at the end t- calculation step (for example, t- gogoda) is found by the formula:

where C b - the base price of a product or resource; J(t, t n ) - coefficient (index) of changes in prices of products or resources of the corresponding group at the end t- step with respect to the initial moment of calculation (at which prices are known).

For projects commissioned by authorities government controlled, the values of price change indices for certain types of products or resources should be set in the design task in accordance with the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation.

Estimated prices are used to calculate integral performance indicators if the current values of costs and results are expressed in forecast prices. This is necessary to ensure comparability of the results obtained at different levels of inflation.

Estimated prices are obtained by introducing a deflationary factor corresponding to the general inflation index.

It is recommended to compare various investment projects (or project options) and choose the best one using various indicators, which include:

net present value ( NPV), or integral effect E int [in foreign terminology - net present value NPV(from English. net present value)];

yield index (ID)[profitability index PI(from English profitability index)];

internal rate of return (VIEW)[internal rate of return, profitability, return on investment IRR(from English. internal rate of return)];

payback period;

other indicators reflecting the interests of the participants or the specifics of the project.

The indicators used to compare different investment projects (project options) must be brought to a comparable form.

Net present value calculated as the sum of current effects for the entire calculation period, reduced to the initial step, or as the difference between the integral results and integral costs.

If during the billing period there is no inflationary change in prices or the calculation is made in basic prices, then the value NPV for a constant discount rate is calculated by the formula:

where R t - results achieved on t- calculation step; W t - costs incurred for t- mzhe step; T - calculation horizon equal to the number of the step at which the object is liquidated.

It should be emphasized that in this and subsequent formulas at the end t- the (last) step should take into account the sale of assets (conditional). If a real liquidation of production is envisaged, it should be reflected in the project. Net liquidation (residual) value of the object are obtained by subtracting liquidation expenses from the proceeds from the sale of material assets received during liquidation.

If NPV of the investment project is positive, the project is efficient (at a given discount rate). The more NPV, the more effective the project. Implementation of an investment project with a negative NPV threatens the investor with losses, i.e. the project is inefficient.

In practice, the formula NPV often modified, excluding from the composition W t capital investments and denoting through K t - investment in t-m step, TO - discounted investment:

Positive value TO indicates profit, negative indicates income.

Denoting as W t * - costs for t- mstep, not including capital investments, we write:

This formula expresses the difference between the sum of the reduced effects and the capital investments reduced to the same point in time TO.

Yield index ID is the ratio of the sum of the reduced effects to capital investments:

The yield index is closely related to NPV. It is built from the same elements, its value depends on the value NPV: if NPV > 0, then ID > 1 if NPV< 0, then ID< 1. When ID > 1 project is effective, with ID< 1 - неэффективен.

Internal rate of return GNI there is a discount rate E ext , at which the sum of the reduced effects is equal to the reduced capital invested. In other words, E ext (GNI) is a solution to the equation:

When determining GNI certain caution must be observed, since the internal rate of return in some cases does not always exist or has several values, as a result of which its correct calculation is somewhat difficult.

Formally GNI calculated as the value of the discount factor at which NPV = 0, i.e., the investment project does not provide an increase in the profitability of the enterprise, but does not lead to its decrease either. That is why in the domestic literature GNI sometimes called verification discount. It allows you to find the boundary value of the discount factor that divides investments into acceptable and unprofitable. For this GNI compared with the level of payback that the enterprise (investor) chooses for itself as a standard, taking into account the price at which it itself received capital and what level of “net” profit it would like to achieve. This standard level of desired ROI is often referred to as barrier coefficient HR(from English. herdle rate). The principle of using these indicators is as follows: GNI > NR - project is acceptable GNI< HR - unacceptable when GNI= HR any decision can be made.

Moreover, GNI serves a kind of "sieve" that helps to reject unprofitable projects at rates of return, as well as an indicator of the level of risk: the more GNI exceeds the value accepted by the enterprise HR, the greater the margin of safety of the project and the less threats carry possible errors in assessing the volume of future cash receipts.

For standard investments, the following statement is true: the higher the discount factor, the less NPV(Fig. P. 1.1).

As can be seen from Fig.P.1.1, GNI - this is the value of the discount factor E, at which the dependence curve NPV from E crosses the horizontal axis, i.e. NPV turns out to be zero. Find GNI can be done in two ways: firstly, to calculate using the equation (A.1.17), and secondly, to find it in the tables of reduction coefficients.

Almost always, the implementation of an investment project involves with risk i.e. the probability that the investor will not receive the required profit from the implementation of the project due to adverse events.

It is known that the risk depends on many factors, the influence of which is not always accountable. Therefore, in practice, accounting consists in choosing such a discount rate for future receipts that would correspond to the current situation. Since in the evaluation of investment projects in many cases there is no accurate information about the possible results and costs, it is necessary to rely on forecasts. These predictions establish the likelihood that a particular effect will E t = R t - W t will take place in the analyzed period t, where R t - results from the sale of goods or services, and W t- expenses.

If, for example, in t-th time interval some effect value E tj (j = 1,n) can happen with probability p j (j= 1, P), then you can find the mathematical expectation in this time interval using the formula:

where E t- expected effect (mathematical expectation of the effect).

Taking into account the fact that E t= p t -W t, the formula (P. 1.18) can be transformed to the form:

i.e. expected effect E t is equal to the difference between the expected results R t and costs Z t .

The value of the expected effect found by expressions (A.1.18) or (A.1.19) is substituted into the above formula NPV instead of a uniquely deterministic estimate of income:

Respectively R t - Z t should be considered as an effect that, depending on the risk, can fluctuate within a certain interval. At the same time, the deviation from the mathematical expectation (with a large number of observations it can be considered an average value) is the standard deviation o, and the larger the standard deviation, the higher the risk. standard deviationσ for effect E t determined by the formula:

It should be emphasized that the expression (A.1.21) is valid if the results of the sale of products and the costs of its production are interdependent and change in concert, for example, in accordance with the volume of sales of products. But, as practice shows, costs and results can change independently, then:

The overall risk for an investment project is calculated as the standard deviation of the integral economic effect (NPV).

If the expression (P. 1.21) is valid for the standard deviation, ( NPV) found by the formula:

If the results R t and costs W t- independent variables and the expression is valid (P. 1.22), then the standard deviation for the integral economic effect is determined by the formula:

In many cases, it is more convenient to use not the standard deviation, but relative risk, defined as the ratio of the standard deviation to the expected value:

With a high degree of risk, an investor may decide to discount if the expected return is high enough. There is a certain relationship between risk and the amount of required income. This dependence can be represented indifference curve, showing the relationship between σ and the required profit P(σ), measured as a percentage. In the absence of risk (σ = 0), the discount rate is equal to E 0 , and the corresponding profit - P 0 . If the risk is equal to σ*, then in order for the investor to decide to discount the project, the profit must be at least P*, i.e. risk premium must be at least P* - P 0 .Accordingly, the discount rate increases to R* more R 0 . Shown in Fig. P. 1.2 the curve can be attributed to the indifference curve, since for the investor all projects corresponding to the points of this curve are equivalent, and a certain risk is compensated by a corresponding increase in profits.

To consolidate the past, we propose to solve the following tasks.

Table P. 1.10

Table P. 1.11

Table P. 1.12

Task 4. Calculate the effectiveness of the project based on the data in Table. P. 1.13. Assess the impact of increasing the duration of the project on ID and NPV.

Table P. 1.13

Task 5. Determine which project should be preferred based on the data in tables A.1.14 and A.1.15.

Table P. 1.14

Table P. 1.15

When receiving negative values NPV define for projects GNI, by constructing a graph similar to that shown in Fig. Clause 1.2.

Imagine that the effectiveness of investment projects, the data on which are given in Table. P.1.14-P.1.15 does not suit project developers. What measures should be recommended to them in order to reduce R t , Z t , T?

Task 6. Define the expected result in t- year and its probability in accordance with the data in Table. P. 1.16.

Task 7. Determine the overall risk of investment projects, the initial data of which are given in Table P. 1.17-P. 1.19.

Table P. 1.16

Table P. 1.17

Table P. 1.18

Table P. 1.19

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Introduction
1. Concept and classification of investment projects
2. Preparation of an investment project and its role in making an investment decision
3. The effectiveness of the investment project
4. Indicators and types of efficiency of investment projects
5. Basic principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects
Conclusion
Bibliography

Introduction

The condition for the development and sustainable life of any organization is the effectiveness of investing in certain investment projects.

The problem of making an investment decision is to evaluate the plan of the expected development of events in terms of how the content of the plan and the likely consequences of its implementation correspond to the expected result.

The very concept of investment (from lat. investio - I dress) means capital investments in sectors of the economy within the country and abroad. Investment is something that is “put off” for tomorrow in order to be able to consume more in the future.

One part of the investment is consumer goods that are not used in the current period, but are deposited in stock (investments to increase stocks).

Another part of the investment is the resources that are directed to the expansion of production (investments in buildings, machines and structures).

Since entrepreneurial activity involves the constant implementation of projects containing innovations and activities aimed at improving production efficiency, there is a need for their evaluation and selection.

The feasibility study of the project is the main document that allows potential investors to analyze the attractiveness of the project and make a decision on its financing.

The purpose of this work is to determine the basic principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, as well as the scheme for evaluating the effectiveness.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved in the work:

- the basic concepts and definition of an investment project, indicators and types of investment project efficiency, as well as the basic principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects are given.

1. Concept and classification of investment projects

An investment project at an enterprise is considered as a set of measures (proposals) deployed in time, focused on achieving established goals (commercial, social, environmental), meeting a given enterprise development strategy and requiring the expenditure (or use) of capital resources (land, capital) for its implementation or information.

Investment project (investment project) - a plan or program of investment in order to achieve the goals. Sometimes an investment project is understood as a system of organizational, legal, analytical, engineering, economic, accounting and financial documents necessary to justify and carry out the relevant work on the project.

The term "investment project" is used in two senses:

- as a matter, activity, event, involving the implementation of a complex of any actions that ensure the achievement of certain goals (obtaining certain results). Close in meaning in this case are the terms "economic event", "work (set of works)", "project";

- as a system of organizational, legal and settlement and financial documents necessary for the implementation of any actions or describing such actions.

A variety of investment projects implemented in practice can be classified depending on various characteristics. From the point of view of a general approach to the classification of investment projects, the following features can be distinguished:

- type of project - depending on the field of activity in which the project is being implemented (organizational, technological, economic, social, mixed);

- the scale of the project - a monoproject, a multiproject, a megaproject (a monoproject is a project of various types and types, a multiproject is a complex project consisting of a number of monoprojects, a megaproject is a program for the development of regions, industries, which includes a number of mono- and multiprojects);

- type of project - by the nature of the subject area of the project (innovative, educational, mixed, etc.);

- project duration - according to the duration of the project cycle implementation period (short-term - up to 1 year, medium-term - 1-3 years, long-term - over 3 years).

Depending on the type, projects can be classified:

- socio-technical, aimed at increasing the productivity of workers and improving conditions on the ground;

- organizational and managerial, contributing to the improvement of production and increase in labor productivity;

- information related to the improvement of information flows and their automation;

- integrated, consisting of elements of previous projects.

In terms of the scale of implementation, projects can be implemented both at the level of the entire organization, and at the level of individual workshops, sections and individual workplaces.

According to the duration of the cycle, projects can be short-term (up to 1 year), medium-term (up to 3 years), long-term (more than 3 years).

The whole set of various investment projects can be classified depending on other features.

2. Preparation of an investment project and its role in making an investment decision

investment project efficiency solution

As noted above, in its most general form, an investment project is usually understood as a plan for investing capital in specific business objects with the aim of subsequently obtaining a profit sufficient in size to meet the requirements of the investor.

In terms of its content, such a plan includes a system of technical, technological, organizational, accounting, financial and legal, purposefully prepared materials necessary for the formation and subsequent functioning of an object of entrepreneurial activity. With the help of an investment project, an important task is solved to clarify and justify the technical feasibility and economic feasibility of creating an object of entrepreneurial activity.

In time, an investment project covers the period from the moment the idea of creating or developing production was born, its transformation and until the completion of the life cycle of the object being created. This period includes three phases: pre-investment, investment and operational.

If the project is being developed in relation to an existing enterprise in the aspect of implementing an investment decision provided for by the enterprise development strategy, then the first stage of the pre-investment phase should be considered the identification of investment opportunities. As long as there is no clear understanding of the sources of funding, of potentially interested investors and the possibility of their participation in the project, there is little point in moving to the development of the project itself.

The preparation of an investment project is most often carried out in two stages: at the first stage, a preliminary feasibility study (feasibility study) of the project is developed, and at the second stage, the final one.

In terms of conceptual content, the first and second stages of the feasibility study are close. The difference lies in the depth of project development, subsequent refinement of the initial technical and economic information, information on possible sales volumes, loan costs and similar information, which ultimately affect the project's performance indicators. However, the peculiarity of the second phase is that the costs here are irreversible, and since the project is not completed, it does not yet generate income. At this stage, issues related to attracting investments are resolved: loans, issue of shares, recruitment and training of personnel.

The specificity of the investment phase, in contrast to the pre-investment phase, is that the established time frame for creating an object of entrepreneurial activity and the amount of costs provided for by the estimate must be steadily met.

Exceeding these parameters is fraught with very serious consequences, and possibly bankruptcy. Of no small importance is the monitoring of all factors and circumstances that affect the duration and costs in order to take timely measures to overcome emerging negative phenomena.

The third phase of the investment project is operational. The total duration of this phase has a significant impact on the economic efficiency of the project: the further in time the operational phase is, the greater the net income will be. This period cannot be set arbitrarily, because there are economically expedient limits for the use of fixed capital elements, which are dictated mainly by their obsolescence.

3. The effectiveness of the investment project

The effectiveness of an investment project is an indicator that reflects the compliance of the project with the goals and interests of its participants.

From the point of view of legislation, the evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects is not mandatory, however, each investor is interested in protecting himself from the loss of invested funds and getting enough profit to compensate for the risks.

The assessment of an investment project is generally reduced to the construction and study of some economic and mathematical model of the project implementation process. The need for modeling is due to the fact that when evaluating a project, a complex and multifaceted process of its implementation has to be simplified, discarding insignificant factors and focusing on more significant ones. As a result, the object of analysis is not the project itself, but the material and cash flows associated with it. So the problem boils down to "translating" project documentation into the language of cash flows, and reflect the interests of project participants in calculation formulas that allow evaluating cash flows relative to these interests.

As a rule, when evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, the key issues are the following: profitability of investing in a given project; payback period of investments; the degree and risk factors that have a decisive influence on the result.

When evaluating investment projects, they proceed from the information about the project that is contained in the project materials, accepting it as complete, accurate and reliable. During the examination of an investment project, the task is to find out how complete, accurate and reliable it is.

4. Indicators and types of efficiency of investment projects

Determining the level of economic efficiency of investments acceptable to the investor is the most difficult area of economic calculations related to the development of a feasibility study, since here it is necessary to bring together all the many factors of various interests of potential investors, take into account difficult-to-predict changes in the external environment in relation to the project, as well as taxation systems in an unstable economy. All this becomes much more complicated due to the fact that the evaluation of efficiency should be based on relevant information for a very long calculation period.

The problem of assessing the economic efficiency of an investment project is to determine the level of its profitability in absolute and relative terms (ie, per unit of investment costs, capital), which is usually characterized as the rate of return.

Efficiency assessment is carried out according to the system of the following interrelated indicators:

- net income (NP);

- net present value (NPV) or integral effect (another name of the indicator, quite widely used abroad, is the net present (or current) value, net present value (NPV));

- profitability index (or profitability index, profitability (PI));

- payback period (term of return of non-recurring costs of RS);

- internal rate of return (or internal rate of return, profitability, internal rate of retum (IRR)).

A number of subjects take part in the implementation and implementation of the investment project: shareholders (firms, companies), banks, budgets of different levels. The income (gross domestic product) received by society from the implementation of effective projects is then divided between them.

Having multiple members investment process predetermines the discrepancy between their interests, different attitudes towards the priority of various project options. The income and expenses of these entities determine various types of investment project efficiency from the standpoint of each participant. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the positions of the project participants are embodied in the initial information and the formation of specific cash flows for calculating performance indicators. Therefore, they may not have the same assessment results and decisions about their participation in the project.

At present, it can be considered generally accepted the following types efficiency of investment projects presented in fig. one.

Figure 1 - Types of efficiency of investment projects

The effectiveness of the project as a whole is evaluated for the presentation of the project and, in this regard, to determine the attractiveness of the project for potential investors.

Public efficiency characterizes the social economic consequences implementation of the project as a whole, i.e. it takes into account not only the immediate results and costs of the project, but also "external" in relation to the project costs and results in related sectors of the economy, economic, social and other non-economic effects.

Social efficiency is assessed only for socially significant investment projects that affect the interests of not one country, but several.

For projects where expertise is not required government agencies management, the development of social performance indicators is not required.

The commercial efficiency of the project characterizes the economic consequences of its implementation for the initiator, based on a very conditional assumption that he incurs all the costs necessary for the implementation of the project and uses all its results. Commercial efficiency is sometimes interpreted as the effectiveness of the project as a whole. It is believed that commercial efficiency characterizes technical, technological and organizational design solutions from an economic point of view.

The most significant is the determination of the effectiveness of participation in the project. It is determined in order to check the feasibility of the investment project and the interest in it of all its participants. The effectiveness of participation is evaluated primarily for the enterprise of the project developer (or potential shareholders). This type of efficiency is also called efficiency for the equity capital of the project.

The effectiveness of participation in the project also includes such types as the effectiveness of participation in the project of higher-level structures (financial and industrial groups, holding structures), the budgetary efficiency of the investment project (the effectiveness of state participation in the project in terms of expenditures and revenues of budgets of all levels).

The system of indicators determined to evaluate the listed types of efficiency, and methodological principles their calculations are the same. The differences lie in the initial parameters that form the real cash flows for the project in relation to each type of efficiency.

In other words, a single and interconnected system of project parameters is embodied in performance indicators that are uniform in economic nature, depending on their area of application in the economic environment that they should characterize. Some exceptions are indicators of social efficiency. "External" effects are not always possible to take into account in terms of value. In some cases, when these effects are very significant, but it is not possible to evaluate them, only a qualitative assessment of their influence is inevitable.

Assessment of future costs and results in determining the effectiveness of an investment project is carried out within the calculation period (calculation horizon). The calculation horizon is measured by the number of calculation steps. The calculation step in determining performance indicators within the calculation period can be a month, quarter or year.

The costs incurred by the participants are divided into initial, current and liquidation, which are carried out respectively at the stages of construction, operation and liquidation.

For the valuation of results and costs, basic, world and settlement prices can be used.

The basic prices are the prices prevailing in the national economy at a certain point in time tb. The base price for any product or resource is considered unchanged throughout the entire billing period.

Measurement of the economic efficiency of the project in basic prices is carried out at the stage of feasibility studies of investment opportunities.

At the stage of the feasibility study of an investment project, it is mandatory to calculate the economic efficiency in forecast and settlement prices. At the same time, it is recommended to carry out calculations in basic and world prices.

The forecast price Цt of a product or resource at the end of the t-th calculation step is determined by the formula:

Цt = Цб J(t,tn),

where Cb is the base price of a product or resource;

J(t,tн) - coefficient (index) of change in prices of products or resources of the corresponding group at the end of the t-th step in relation to the initial moment of calculation tн (at which prices are known).

For projects developed by order of government bodies, the values of price change indices for certain types of products and resources should be set in the design assignment in accordance with the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation.

Estimated prices are used to calculate integral performance indicators if the current values of costs and results are expressed in forecast prices.

This is necessary to ensure comparability of the results obtained with different levels inflation.

Settlement prices are obtained by introducing a defiling factor corresponding to the general inflation index

When developing and comparatively evaluating several options for an investment project, it is necessary to take into account the impact of changes in sales volumes on the market price of products and the price of consumed resources.

When evaluating the effectiveness of an investment project, the comparison of multi-temporal indicators is carried out by bringing (discounting) them to the value in the initial period.

To bring the costs, results and effects at different times, the discount rate (E) is used, which is equal to the rate of return on capital acceptable to the investor.

Technically, bringing to a basic point in time the costs, results and effects that take place on t-th step calculation of the implementation of the project, it is convenient to produce by multiplying them by the discount factor a t, determined for a constant discount rate E, as:

,

where t is the calculation step number, t = 0,1,2,...T, (T is the calculation horizon).

If the discount rate changes over time and is equal to Et at the t-th calculation step, then the discount factor is equal to:

and for t > 0.

As already noted, due to the fact that the investment project brings together several participants whose goals may not coincide, and therefore there are other performance indicators that were not reflected in this work.

Having considered the concept of the effectiveness of investment projects, let's move on to the consideration of the basic principles of efficiency assessment.

5. Basic principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects

The principles for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects and economic decisions are a set of fundamental requirements that must be met by justifying the effectiveness of the implementation of any projects and economic decisions.

In accordance with the officially approved Guidelines for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, the most significant of them include:

- cash flow modeling. It includes all project-related cash receipts and disbursements during the entire project cycle;

Accounting for the time factor. It is necessary to take into account the dynamics of the parameters of the project and its economic environment (changes in the exchange rate of the national currency, interest rates etc.), as well as gaps in time between the production of products, the receipt of resources and their payment. It is important to take into account the disparity of costs and/or results at different times;

- taking into account the impact of inflation, i.e., changes in prices for various types of products and resources, during the project implementation period, taking into account the possibility of using several currencies during the project implementation;

- taking into account (in quantitative form) the impact of uncertainties and risks accompanying the implementation of the project;

- compliance with the comparability of the conditions for comparing various projects (project options);

- accounting only for future cash receipts and payments. Previously created assets are valued at the opportunity cost or maximum lost profit associated with their use as an alternative to the project under consideration;

- comparison of scenarios "with project" and "without project", while paying attention to the most common mistake - replacing the scenario "without project" with the scenario "before the project". This leads to the fact that the calculations do not take into account the damage caused by the refusal of investments;

- taking into account all the most significant consequences of the project in related areas of the economy, including social and environmental;

- taking into account the discrepancy between the interests of different project participants and various estimates of the cost of capital, expressed in individual values of the discount rate.

Conclusion

Preliminary studies of investment projects make it possible to assess the practical feasibility and economic feasibility of implementing the project under consideration.

However, the use of any, even the most sophisticated, methods will not provide complete predictability of the final result, the main goal is to compare the investment projects proposed for consideration on the basis of a unified approach using, if possible, objective and verifiable indicators and compiling a relatively more effective and relatively less risky investment project analysis .

To do this, it is advisable to take into account and apply all types of project analysis, based mainly on discounting the cash flows generated during the implementation of the project.

The general scheme for all types of evaluating the effectiveness of project analysis is basically the same and is based on forecasting positive and negative cash flows (roughly speaking, expenses and income associated with the implementation of the project) for the planned period and comparing the resulting cash flow balance, discounted at the appropriate rate, with investment costs. And measures to assess the risk of investing and the use of a methodology for accounting for uncertainty in financial calculations, which make it possible to reduce the impact of incorrect forecasts on the final result and thereby increase the likelihood of a correct decision, can significantly increase the validity and correctness of the analysis results.

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