Why is the Belarusian ruble growing? Expert commentary. Economist Vadim Iosub: currency detective - why is the Belarusian ruble getting cheaper in recent weeks and who benefits from it? Why is the Belarusian ruble so cheap

Citizens of Belarus are getting used to new banknotes and are getting used to being "millionaires"

Photo: Viktor Drachev/TASS

On July 1, 2016, the denomination started in Belarus. The corresponding decree was signed by the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko on November 5, 2015. How Belarusian ruble started a new life without four zeros, - in a special report from Banki.ru from Minsk.

The denomination in Belarus is going quite calmly. Apparently, the preparation process, which officially began in the fall of 2015, makes itself felt. Then the journalists were shown the new money, they were even allowed to touch and photograph. And the banks were given recommendations on the denomination.

Literally a few weeks after the announcement of the denomination, there were reports in the media that some "enterprising citizens" went to retired people living alone to change old money for "new", however law enforcement quickly explained to the population how to behave in this situation.

Perhaps the criminal aspect has become the only negative point in the process of "cutting off zeros" from the national currency in Belarus. On the night of June 30 to July 1, the Belarusian ruble lost four zeros and changed its encoding. Now its code is BYN, not BYR.

In preparation for the denomination, June was the busiest period: banks were finalizing software, reconfigured equipment and trained cashiers.

stock up on cash for the first two or three days;
pay in advance for communication services and the Internet, make payments on loans, make tax and other payments (the peak of utility payments in Belarus falls on the 20-25th of the month, after which the bases are blocked).

Also National Bank and Belarusian banks clarified that on the night of the denomination:

all cards issued by Belarusian banks (in all currencies) will stop working on the territory of all countries;
operations in remote banking channels will be unavailable, ATMs, infokiosks and terminal equipment will “freeze”.

Cash in ATMs quickly came to an end, but in general, banks coped with the issuance of a large amount of cash quite successfully. True, it was not without curiosities - some withdrew all their savings from the cards. So, just in case.

On the night of the denomination, at 23:00 on June 30, banking life in Belarus stopped. ATMs, information kiosks, remote control systems stopped working. banking service. At this point, hundreds of specialists in Belarusian banks reset the electronics.

By 10 am on July 1, most ATMs of Belarusian banks were already fully operational. And they issued new paper money to customers. With coins, everything is much more complicated so far, ATMs are simply not configured to work with them. In Belarus, a whole generation has already grown up that does not know what coins are, the last metal money disappeared from circulation with the collapse of the USSR. By the way, both the new Belarusian banknotes and the new Belarusian coins are very similar in design to the euro.

Certain issues have also arisen with remote banking systems. Some banks have taken time out to reconfigure.

Officially, the National Bank of Belarus allowed credit organizations not work with clients on the day of the denomination. However, already in the first hours of July 1, round-the-clock exchange offices (in particular, at railway stations) began to issue new money. Now cash-in-transit machines deliver new banknotes and coins to trade and service organizations throughout the country.

The excitement is observed only on the part of young people and journalists who are hunting for new banknotes. As cashiers in regular and online stores admit, so far almost everyone is paying with old money. There were no unforeseen incidents. It can be stated that the preparation for the denomination took place at a fairly high level and Belarus is slowly moving to new means of payment.

By the way, new banknotes- a sample from 2009 (all these years they were kept in the depository of the National Bank of Belarus). These banknotes bear the signature of Piotr Prokopovich, who left the post of head of the Belarusian regulator more than five years ago, in the spring of 2011. Also important psychological aspect denominations - the inhabitants of Belarus are accustomed to the fact that they are "millionaires". average salary in the country was 6-7 million rubles (about 20 thousand Russian rubles). Now the status of "millionaires" will have to part. 1 million old rubles is 100 new ones. For 1 dollar they ask for 2 new Belarusian rubles, for 1 Russian ruble give 3 new pennies. But so far no one has complained about it.

Until the end of the year, the price tags in Belarusian stores will be in both old and new money.

And the denomination will continue. Old rubles will officially circulate on a par with new ones until December 31, 2016.

Due to what the Belarusian ruble wins back its positions? AiF asked to answer this question candidate economic sciences Elena SEMAK.

Semak Elena Adolfovna - Associate Professor of the Department of International economic relations faculty international relations Belarusian State University.

On the exchange rate(i.e., the ratio of the price of the national currency to a foreign one, for example, the Belarusian ruble to the dollar) is influenced by supply and demand for foreign currency. Dollars and euros are needed by enterprises that buy goods for import, as well as by the population - for tourist trips abroad or for the purpose of savings. At the beginning of 2017, the volumes of foreign currency purchased by these two categories decreased.

According to the National Bank, in January of this year, business entities - residents of the Republic of Belarus, bought more currencies than they sold, the difference amounted to 13.1 million USD. This is much less than in January last year, when this excess amounted to 198.2 million USD.

At the same time, our exporters increased their revenue. Compared to January 2016, the volume of foreign currency sales by Belarusian enterprises in the first month of 2017 increased by USD 262.7 million. According to the expert, this indicates a possible improvement in the state of Belarusian foreign trade.

Thus, the first factor that influenced the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble was an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for foreign currencies on the part of business. It is also necessary to add: Belarusian enterprises prefer to buy foreign currency from banks (on over-the-counter market). On the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange (BCSE), they purchased only 14.3 million USD, while outside the exchange - 1,278.1 million USD. Namely, exchange rates are set on the stock exchange.

The second factor, according to the expert, was the high level of spending by the population during the holidays (dollars were exchanged for rubles, for which goods for the feast were then bought), the third factor was low level income, which forces the population to spend foreign currency savings.

Another aspect is political: a sharp weakening of the European currency on the BCSE was caused, to a large extent, by the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar in the Forex market. This is due to fears that Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front, could take the presidency of France, which, if she wins, could withdraw the country from the euro zone and initiate the return of the franc as the national currency of France.

According to Elena Semak, one should not forget that the Russian ruble is strengthening at the same time.

The exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble is determined by the amount (basket) of 3 currencies: euro, dollar, Russian ruble. And the share of the latter in the basket is 50%. Most of our foreign trade is connected with Russia, and in relation to the Russian ruble, the Belarusian ruble is weakening.

What is the forecast?

Forecasting further changes in the exchange rate is a very difficult task. At the end of 2016, the majority of economists expected, at best, a gradual depreciation of the Belarusian ruble at the same pace as inflation. The further forecast of the development of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate depends on the success of our foreign trade, the growth or decline in household incomes and fluctuations in foreign exchange rates on world markets.

Summary

The following main factors influenced the strengthening of the Belarusian ruble:

Increase offers of foreign currency in Belarus (due to various reasons: the success of Belarusian exporters, the still low level of income of the population (people are forced to spend foreign currency savings), etc.). When supply is greater than demand, the cost of a good ( dollars and euros are also a kind of "commodity". - Note.) falls.
Decrease business demand for dollars and euros;
Seasonal factor (the population spends more currency during the New Year holidays).

After the denomination for 1 Belarusian ruble, 32 Russian rubles will have to be paid immediately. Well, the Belarusian currency, after "cutting off" four zeros, has become stronger? Answered by Konstantin Korishchenko, Professor of the Faculty of Finance and Banking, RANEPA

On July 1, a denomination took place in Belarus. The authorities "cut off" 4 zeros at once. We decided to find out from Konstantin Korishchenko, professor at the Faculty of Finance and Banking at the RANEPA, former deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, why this was necessary and what it would bring to the economy.

The transition period will take a whole five years

On July 1, the denomination of the national currency starts in Belarus. You should not be afraid of the overseas word - at its core, this is an exclusively technical operation. Old-style banknotes are being replaced with new banknotes. At the same time, four zeros will disappear from them.

- Why was the denomination of the Belarusian ruble necessary?

In short, to simplify the economic turnover. Both in practical life and in calculations, extra numbers are an additional risk of making a mistake. Therefore, a large number of zeros created a certain discomfort and interfered with economic activity states. This is the main goal of any denomination. A side effect is the strengthening of the national currency rate in the state. The denomination increases its stability, removes the excess money supply from turnover.

- Why did you decide to cut exactly 4 zeros on banknotes, and not, say, 3?

At one time in Russia they reduced 3 zeros - then there was such a scale of prices that it was more convenient to use a ratio of 1000: 1. Well, in Belarus, the scale of prices is different, respectively, they adjusted to it.

- For 1 dollar now they give 2 Belarusian rubles. Is the Belarusian ruble stronger than the Russian one now?

- Just because a truck and a convertible are called "cars" it doesn't follow that they drive the same way or have the same power. The Belarusian ruble is not equal to the Russian ruble, so it is incorrect to compare their pairs with the dollar. Although this is a common misconception.

- Maybe now in Russia to carry out a denomination?

And this, by the way, is a perfectly reasonable question. I think the authorities can come to this. For example, for a convenient settlement system, it is better when exchange rates in pairs are within 100. That is, if a dollar or euro, for example, costs more than 100 rubles, this will be a reason for denomination. Although there is an example of Japan, where more than 100 yen is given for a dollar, and the government does not change anything. But this is rather an exception.