Good afternoon, dear readers!
As I promised, this week there will be an interview with a fairly well-known person in the field of investing. He maintains his blog "The Homebody Investor", and it was he who inspired hundreds (if not thousands) of people to take up this difficult business - investments. Meet - Vasily Dedlovskikh!
In an interview, Vasily spoke about how he came to the world of trading and investment, his vision of this business and made some forecast for the future of this industry. If you have any questions, you can ask them in the comments!
OK. Vasily, tell us a little about yourself
What do you want to know? Let's be more specific))
The most basic: how old are you, where are you from and how do you live (hobbies, hobbies)
I am 26. The geography of my life is quite long, but if it is very concise, then I was born and grew up in a small village of Selikhino in the Khabarovsk Territory, I graduated from high school in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, an institute in Khabarovsk. Worked for 3 years in Khabarovsk in banking, I moved to Moscow a year and a half ago - I also work in the banking sector. Hobbies - travel, tourism Well, investing in the forex market (including independent trading) can be attributed to a hobby
OK. How exactly did you get into the world of investments and Forex trading? What was first? Investment or trading?
The first was trading. I told this episode of my life in some detail and interestingly in my review of the Forex Club company. One of the first chapters of the review is devoted to this. I learned about the forex market a long time ago, as a child, I started trying my hand about 10 years ago. In general, trading has always attracted me more - investments appeared when I decided to take a break from the failures of my own trading. In general, I met the emergence of PAMM services in the late 2000s very positively - it was a logical evolutionary step in the development of forex brokers. And my education as an economist and mathematician also pushed me to form investment portfolios. this subject intersects with my education
Well, how do you evaluate your success in the trading market?
In different periods in different ways. I tried a lot of things - trading without a system, trading with a system, creating trading robots, purchasing trading robots, creating multi-currency trading systems… Sometimes I didn’t have enough time, sometimes I didn’t have enough money, sometimes I didn’t have enough knowledge — but all together increased my experience. And success ... you probably saw that I created a PAMM account, so let's see on its example))
Yes I saw. But if I'm not mistaken, does a robot trade there?
Yes, there are many robots trading and even more - there are no robots that I would write myself. I'm not sure if direct manual trading is my thing - I'm not the kind of person to trade hands well - you need to be emotionless, you need to be a great poker player. Therefore, I try not to trade manually now - it takes a lot of time, effort and nerves - therefore I do what I do best - I manage a portfolio, and it doesn’t matter what portfolio - pamm accounts, trading robots, trading signals ... general principles are similar, goals are identical
That is, you are quite positive about trading robots, right? And by what system, by the way, does your robot work?
A robot is a tool - a robot was written by a person, it’s pretty stupid in my opinion to treat them sharply negatively or sharply positively indiscriminately - just as stupid as considering all people bad or indiscriminately considering all good. My robot? ask a question
Yes, the adviser that works on your PAMM account
Vasily Dedlovskikh: I’m telling you, I have a lot of robots working on my account - and they are not mine, for the most part I bought them or found them on the net. I am engaged in the distribution of trading lots between those that I have connected to the account - this is done manually with an interval of 1 week. There is no "my robot"
Yeah, I understand, well, I meant by “your job”, the robot that you use 🙂 Okay, let's continue the topic of trading. Why did you choose DC FX open? After all, there is Alpari, Pantheon, FX Trend after all?
Fhopen has the lowest spread/commission of those listed, with the trading approach that is implemented on my PAMM account, this is a determining factor. Speaking of "approach" I mean the average low efficiency of a single trade - the expected average income per trade is 2-4 points. If you use a forex trend, then trading will become unprofitable
Kohl, we touched the fx trend. Don't you think Pantheon Finance has something to do with it? Because they have a lot in common.
Yes, I blog about it all the time. I decided a long time ago that forex trend = pantheon.
Don't you think of them as "kitchens". after all, something strange happens: Forex Trend is a fairly young DC (compared to the same Alpari), but it has many millionaire accounts, while few DCs can boast of such statistics. And as far as I understand, the trading conditions for traders there are not the most ideal?
No, I don’t think so. I explain the difference in the quality of managers by the fact that FT always works to attract managers, and Alpari has never done such work.
For example, if now a manager with work experience and confirmed statistics decides to open a PAMM account in Forex Trend, then he can receive an amount “from above” equal to his KU + if you register through the “fin5” desk, then another amount of KU will be invested in the council immediately.
As a result, the volume of investments is immediately “tangible”, and the very fact of the presence of such companies as fin5, which are purely engaged in attracting managers to the forex trend, again indicates that the FT is focused on the development of the PAMM platform, on attracting managers and attracting investors. Alpari does nothing of the sort.
Well, because a lot of talk is about the "kitchen" of such offices. By the way, since we are talking about HYIPs: what do you think will happen to this industry next? After all, I don’t see anything like this with the scam of Gamma and Vladimir.
Well, I see milka and mmsis 🙂
That is, do you think that hypes like Gamma and Vladimir are a thing of the past, and they will be laughed at by “like dts”, like milka?
Vladimir and Gamma did not look like ordinary HYIPs, at their core they were projects that I call "pseudo do" - well-organized companies under a single legend of "trust management" operating on the principle of a black box. Mmsis and Milka work in the same way, only the scale is not comparable. More precisely, for mmsis, the scale is not comparable, yet milky to mmsis is like walking to the moon. I’m only afraid that if something suddenly happens to mmsis, then it will really come back to haunt on a federal scale, after which the publishing house of new laws can sweep across the country, tightening work on the forex market, that will be bad.
I agree. What do you think: can something happen to mmsis?
“Something” can happen to anyone, especially if this “everyone” is not regulated by anyone.
By the way, how do you see the system of regulation of this market from the side of the law? what will have to be sacrificed, but what will each of us gain?
Nothing good, our legislators still do not know how to do anything except “prohibit and tighten” - no one will understand the situation.
And how would you like to see the system of regulators from a professional point of view?
Everything suits me now. I would like the regulator not to interfere in the Russian Federation, because the regulator will be none other than the Central Bank (since the FFMS has become part of it). You need reliability like in a bank - you can use the services of British or Swiss brokers.
OK. Recently, the so-called binary options. What is your relationship with them?
I'm not interested in them
Okay, what is an investment for you? What are your goals in doing this?
I earn money, it's rather stupid to invest for a different purpose - IMHO.
I got it. And he meant something else: many people invest in order not to work, others - in order to buy an apartment, others - for retirement. I'm interested in your goal in this regard
Discussing the goal is already going beyond the investment topic, so I don’t discuss it - it exists, but I don’t expand on it - I don’t see the point in it.
Okay, I understand you 🙂 And what do you think, Vasily, what are the prospects for the Internet investment industry: how will it develop, what should we move towards? Do you have an opinion on this?
Yes, there is an opinion. I am planning to write another article on this topic. In general, I can’t say anything about online investment, but the forex investment product market will continue to develop actively if this development is not limited by law. People are interested in this especially in the CIS countries, where if people have savings, then with a high probability they earned them themselves, and not inherited them (as is most often the case in Europe) - it is always easier to “risk” psychologically with such funds.
In addition, eternal inflation, the depreciation of the ruble and unclear political and economic prospects make people move their gray matter and think about where to place their savings. And if it is almost impossible to attract people to trading en masse, then attracting people to a finished investment product is not so difficult.
Well, have you considered (or are considering) any alternatives to PAMM accounts? After all, many people criticize Forex: they say that this is generally an investment in something that is not clear, and so on.
Pamm is an automated trust management service. In general, trust management in the forex market (including pamm accounts) is self-sufficient. And it is difficult enough to imagine any alternatives to trust management. The only alternative now are auto trading platforms (Zulu trade, mirror trader and others…) — but due to some fundamental features, I estimate their development potential is lower than that of trust management.
Understood. Are you considering an alternative to Forex?
I am interested in forex, I am more or less familiar with it and understand the processes taking place in it - this is important for me. Vasily Dedlovskikh: In general, I think in the future to consider speculative investment products of the stock market - but not in the short term.
One person dreamed of becoming a loser.
But could not!
Termination of partnership with Alor and FxPro
Hello friends! Today's article will be a bit sad. As you already understood from the title, I no longer work as an agent with Alor and FxPro. It is doubly sad that this is not my initiative, the companies themselves sent me notices of termination of agency contracts. At the same time, you cannot blame them for this, logically they are completely right - if clients do not come from a partner, then why will such a partner be listed? Yes, indeed, there were almost no new clients from me for these companies. Either the reason is that the companies are not very popular among investors and traders, or the fact is that I do not campaign for a specific brokerage company and have always left the choice to my readers. The fact is that for some reason they were not chosen, most likely a complex of reasons worked, such as: tariffs, quality of service, and a lot of things can influence.In fact, I thought it was for the best. Why be listed where there really is nothing, perhaps there is no need. Of course, such letters are somewhat upsetting, but in general, I write my articles not at all for the sake of affiliates. A blog is my way of expressing myself and expressing my own opinion on what is happening. Affiliates, on the other hand, go as if in the appendage, if someone registers using my link, it’s good, but if not, I won’t worry either. I think it is for this reason that my blog has remained as a hobby, and has not turned into a business. In my opinion than more business in articles, the more there is a conflict of interest and the less practical benefit for readers. Yes, it's a bit of a pity that there are fewer brokers, but that's life. Better less, but better! I am constantly looking for new opportunities for cooperation, so I do not exclude that the number of affiliate programs will always be at a good level) By the way, I recently signed an affiliate program with a broker.
For those who have already forgotten about me, I want to say that there will definitely be new articles! I really want to write on many topics that interest me. Perhaps in some articles there will be affiliate programs, but only adequate ones, without outright crap and pyramids. At least I'll try my best, because I think that since the reader has spent time on my article, he deserves at least respect and you should not stuff him with any marketing nonsense. Sweet tales and so much where they tell. In addition, in the best traditions of honest bloggers, I am ready to make a refback from each of my affiliate programs, and for a very favorable terms! Some affiliate programs, especially on the Moscow exchange, are completely unique and you can only get refback from me))) Do not get lost, if you are interested, write to the blog contacts.
Wednesday, July 10, 2019
Male and female logic
Every madness has its own logic
Male and female logic
Haven't posted from me for a long time, friends! So I decided to write a small author's note on a topic that is already familiar to many not by hearsay. Most of my readers are probably men, but I think there are girls, so I will try to write with humor) But I promise that after reading, both boys and girls will be dissatisfied)))
To begin with, let's recall a little history and define the terms. In short, logic is the science of the laws of thought. However, at the everyday level, it is often understood as the ability to reason correctly, and it includes the well-known deductive and inductive ways of knowing the world. All this was invented by men in ancient times. If you do not go further into terms, then it so happened that logical thinking is a way of knowing the world invented by men. Here I advise the peasants not to be proud, personally there is no merit in the achievements of our ancestors.
But after all, logical thinking is not perfect, there are a lot of logical errors. And here we learn that there are alternative ways of thinking and knowing the world. Many immediately recall intuition or that very female logic. It is difficult for me to say when and how this very concept of female logic appeared, but now they are trying to present it as non-existent. The reasons here are clearly understandable, in order to somehow equate everyone and erase the difference between men and women (why this is done is the topic of a separate article). And therefore, quite often you can read and see all sorts of "revealing" articles that they say female logic does not exist "it's all ugly men" they came up with to belittle girls.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
Money, money, rubbish,
Forgetting peace and laziness,
Make money, make money
And the rest is all rubbish!
And the rest is all rubbish!
song "About the boy Bobby"
Invest like Buffett or the MYTH of equal opportunity!
Bongiorno!You've probably heard phrases like " Investment portfolio millionaire", "Invest like Buffett" and other brainwashing slogans. So, today we will talk about why all this is at best delusional nonsense that does not deserve your attention, and at worst just a cunning deception to extract your Do not rush to argue with me or close the article with the words: "I also found a smart guy - where are you, and where is Buffett!" That's it! Ask yourself the same question - where are you, and where is Buffett? Do you have equal opportunities ?And do not rush to conclusions, the main idea of the article will be in the last paragraphs.
It all starts at school, continues at the institute, and for some even at work! Yes, and on TV we are constantly reminded: that you have a sea of \u200b\u200bopportunities and all paths are open to you! They just tell you right after graduating from schools and universities ... Nobody wants to tell the truth that there will be a lot of closed doors in front of you, where you will not get in your life. If your parents do not have acquaintances and connections, then Good work it will be hard for you to find, and in general your education itself may not actually be as cool as you thought! We do not have any equal opportunities and cannot be! To success and well-being, everyone starts from their own starting point and the distance to be overcome is very different. Yes, you can make your way on your own and acquire useful contacts on your own, but your start will be different from those who already have it all from the beginning!
Want to invest like Buffett? By the way, here his surname is in a somewhat nominal sense - it can be any other rich millionaire. Now compare what opportunities he has, and what do you have? You know that one of the main ideas on which Buffett made his first big fortunes was to buy a controlling stake in promising, but in crisis, small enterprises, to optimize management and business process, and thereby achieve share price growth. Can you afford to buy at least a shawarma at the crossroads? Another of the keys to success, he called a well-composed portfolio and the constant purchase of promising stocks. Do the math - how many shares can you buy with your monthly salary or savings? And how diversified will your portfolio be?
Or maybe you can, like him, open your investment company and carry out trust management of capital? Do you know what the minimum authorized capital is needed for such companies, and how much will be required for the maintenance and salaries of employees? I doubt you've even asked these kinds of questions. I will not continue this list, with a good analysis of this issue, we will find more darkness than the darkness of the arguments "why you are not Buffett" and why you cannot blindly and thoughtlessly copy his ideas and strategies. You and him just have completely different opportunities and sane people should take this into account.
Unfortunately, many pseudo-Gurus and info-businessmen will take advantage of your desire to be as rich and successful as Buffett. This is their bread, they just make money on their courses by recommending you to "think like a millionaire", and sometimes even act like a millionaire ... no matter what the gulf lies between an office plankton manager, a former student yesterday and a billionaire uncle. I'm not joking, and it's good if you spend half your salary on courses and trainings - that's half the trouble! Now, if you, inspired by success, take a large loan somewhere in the savings and open a completely unpromising and unprofitable business in the current conditions according to the long-rotten "recipe" of the unfortunate guru ... this is where a real ASS can happen. And with the capital letter Z.
"What a gloomy picture you painted. Then it's better without a car ... It's better to walk on foot," the reader will say in the words of Ivan from the film "Courier". What to do? I will try to explain my main idea, so we got to these last paragraphs. No need to stupidly copy what he says, what he does, and even how a millionaire and a rich person thinks !!! Only the Chinese have succeeded in copying, and even then, they are not so stupidly copying as it seems to us from here. Every time some successful person does something and achieves success, then try to realize whether you have enough opportunities to do the same or whether you need to somehow modify this idea for yourself, or maybe even discard it altogether, or at least to postpone until you get at least some real opportunities for its implementation.
The most important thought is to understand not what rich people do, nor what they think, but why! WHY? Without this question, no "Golden Rules of Wealth" or "10 Steps to Success" will help. All this, of course, can help and can be important, but only together with an understanding of "why?" you need to do it this way, and not otherwise, and whether this advice and method fits your capabilities and the conditions surrounding you. And of course, I will not dissuade you from doing your own business or investing. I just don't want my readers, not knowing the ford, to immediately plunge into the whirlpool, and then get an ass of various sizes and become disappointed in all these investments and markets. On this joyful note, we will end! A sea of good luck and Dacha by the sea for all of us!
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Invest Trial Demo 2019 - Demo Account Trading Contest
Paradox. At the competition of wet T-shirts, little depends on the T-shirts themselves.
Trading Contest on Demo Accounts
Hello everyone! The next annual competition from the Moscow Exchange is already in full swing - Invest Trial Demo 2019. It runs on demo accounts and allows anyone who wants to learn how to trade on the stock exchange and earn real money for free! You do not need to pay to participate or deposit money to trade. At the competition Invest Trial 2019 you are not competing with other participants, you just need to get a positive trading result more minimum size payouts, so everyone has a chance to win. Trade with virtual money, earn real money! For good, of course, this is not a competition for investors, but a competition for traders.
Competition "Invest Trial 2019"
The date of the: With April 1, 2019 on May 31, 2019.
Conditions of the competition: Each participant receives 90,000 virtual rubles, i.е. 30,000 each on the stock, derivatives and currency sections of the Moscow Exchange.
Prize fund of the competition: 8 million real rubles will be distributed among participants whose positive profitability (according to the results of the competition) will exceed 3,000 rubles.
Special tasks and prizes:
Within the framework of the Contest, among the Contest Participants who became winners in accordance with clause 7.1 of the Regulations and submitted an application in accordance with clause 7.5 of the Regulations, 4 additional prizes in the amount of 50,000 (fifty thousand) rubles each are raffled off. To participate in the drawing of additional prizes, the Contest Participant must, in Personal account The Participant of the Contest on the Website of the Contest leave a forecast of the price value of each of the 4 instruments:
1) Lukoil ordinary shares;
2) Moscow Exchange ordinary shares;
3) The exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble for delivery tomorrow;
4) Futures for Brent crude oil;
at 18:45:00 on July 05, 2019. It is possible to make a forecast until 19:00 Moscow time on May 31, 2019.
Additional prizes are awarded to the Participants of the Contest, who were the first and with the maximum accuracy among the Participants who submitted forecasts to guess the value of the price of one of the 4 instruments at 18:45:00 on July 05, 2019.
Each Contest Participant has the right to make only one prediction.
The most important provisions of the competition:
- Citizens of Russia over 18 years of age can participate in the competition. When registering, the participant must provide real and complete data. Incorrect data may be the basis for refusal to provide winnings.
- The participant's brokerage account must be opened no earlier than September 01, 2018. If you opened an account on the Moscow Exchange before this date, then unfortunately you will no longer be able to take part in the competition, even if you close it and open a new account.
- Trading will be carried out through the QUIK platform.
- During the contest, participants will have access to a wide range of instruments: 16 shares, 2 FinEx funds, 1 OFZ, 2 corporate bonds, futures contracts for 8 assets, 3 currency pairs.
- Payment is made upon application to the bank account of the winner, payments to another person are not allowed.
- The maximum payable amount of winnings is 45,000 rubles, i.е. for 15,000 rubles. on each section of the Moscow Exchange
- The minimum payout amount of winnings is 3,000 rubles on all platforms.
- If the number of winners of the Contest exceeded 2600 participants, then only the Participants of the Contest who took from 1st to 2600th place inclusive can become prize-winners of the Contest. The place of the winner of the Competition is determined by the time of completion of the last of the competitive tasks. The cash prize in this case will be 3,000 rubles.
- The competition does not allow the use of high-frequency algorithms, i.e. robots (supplying a total of more than 300 orders in all markets on a trading day, as well as filing more than 10 orders per minute).
- To receive a cash prize, the Contest Prize Winner must, within 30 calendar days from the end of the Contest, submit to the Organizers of the Contest an Application for the payment of prize money in accordance with Appendix No. 3. After the expiry of this period Applications for payment will not be considered.
- If at the end of the competition the score is negative, then of course you don’t have to pay anything, these are virtual funds.
- From the first 4000 rubles of the prize, tax is not charged, from everything that is higher - it is charged at a rate of 35%. Moscow exchange is a tax agent.
- Deadline for cash prize payment: December 31, 2019.
For those who have recently joined, I tell you how everything works here (instruction for beginners).
Lazy investor is a service for busy people who have no time to dive deep into the analysis valuable papers to look for investment opportunities. Here a ready-made answer is given, what exactly to do at the moment on the Moscow Exchange for a long-term investor. How to use recommendations - the initial conditions of a lazy investor.
Let's agree that the initial conditions are the following.
The average investor has savings of 1,000,000 rubles, which he wants to invest in Russian stock market. This money does not affect his current financial life, he is ready to invest it for a period of 5 years. At the same time, he is ready to replenish his portfolio by 90,000 rubles per quarter, or by 30,000 rubles monthly.
If an investor wants to withdraw money from the stock market, he stops replenishing the portfolio. He can withdraw free money (or invested in bonds) immediately, and money invested in shares can be gradually transferred into bonds or withdrawn as shares are sold. Thus, he will most likely withdraw the entire amount within 5 years without losing on possible market corrections when it is not profitable to sell shares. It will also take the estimated return.
Total:
Initial amount: 1,000,000 rubles.
Quarterly replenishment: 90,000 rubles / 30,000 rubles per month
Safe investment period: from 5 years.
Start of investment: December 8, 2017
The strategy is designed for a long-term investor with an investment horizon of 5 years. Estimated long-term average annual return is 20%.
If you are just now connected to a lazy investor
Look at the current composition of the portfolio through the links
- Keywords:
★5
"Safe investment term: from 5 years."
Did I understand correctly that by this term you mean that in 5 years, in case of a drawdown, the account will still go to 0?
on what basis is this conclusion drawn?
What is the probability of such an event and how is it calculated? Is it really 100 percent?
And I understand this without taking into account inflation?
matroskin, no one knows the future.
Maybe in 5 years there will be no stock market. There is also such a possibility. But if we exclude a real nuclear war, some unlikely cataclysms, then on the horizon of 5 years, with a high probability, the portfolio will be in the black.
The calculation is that we will manage the share of shares and bonds and periodically change their shares, as well as sell something inside the shares, buy something.
This period is indicated so that those who want to make a quick profit in a month or two do not buy according to the recommendations, but it turns out that they need to sit in a position for a year and also increase it.
100% is nowhere. I draw conclusions comprehensively from personal experience, from literature with research on this topic, from communication with more experienced investors on Russian market.
Well, if someone asks about Gazprom for 350 rubles, then I can answer this question.
Stels, sorry, but it's all a little blah blah blah. There are quite formalized methods for calculating a portfolio, both from stocks and mixed ones, and it seems like studies show that a more or less safe horizon is 20 years. Something like there is about 95 percent probability that a drawdown will go to zero. I forgot a little, but not 5! Why, in fact, the question arose, and how did you come to such a result, and even so boldly give it out to beginners? About Gazprom, this is banal, I’ll answer you myself, I sold it at 350. I started with 280, it seems, it was a long time ago) Who took it at 350 I’m very sorry.
Well, if you already write so that people don’t take for 2-3 months, then write it as it is. What they say is so ... And not 5 years))) well, a yield of 20 percent ... well, of course, cool if you are really on the horizon at the age of 20 you can show it. I doubt it very much. Well, who knows there) maybe another Buffett has come. I don’t rule it out)) all the best!
matroskin, I forgot to answer about inflation. The stock portfolio already takes into account inflation in the long run.
Stels, that is, an average of about 30? I take off my hat and I will keep a close eye on the portfolio))
Stels, and by the way, Gazprom is 350 figs with him)) It would be interesting to look at Nikkei since 1990;) 27 years have passed and the index has not yet reached zero, of course this is an index, there is a basket (I mean that there will be selection and rebalancing) + divas + bonds. But 5 years is somehow cool, it hurts))
matroskin, matroskin, I answer all your comments above.
Inflation is now around 3-4%. I mean, if it jumps to 50%, then the shares will gradually win back this too.
The estimated yield is so that no one expects 50-60%, etc. At some point it will be higher, at some point it will be lower.
Perhaps you are a more experienced investor than me. And I'm wrong about something.
Maybe the wording is not correct picked up "safe". Of course, nothing is safe. But, perhaps, you do not take into account that the portfolio is replenished, dividends and coupons are reinvested. If you do this regularly, including in a falling market, it adds stability to the portfolio.
But in any case, I will think about the wording, the indicated deadline and look again at what I have read on this topic.
If it doesn't make it difficult, can you give the names of "formalized portfolio calculation methods"?
By Nikkei. He was dear there. The share of shares was to be minimal. And yes, taking into account rebalancing, dividends, coupons, replenishments, everything is not as sad as it seems. But on the "safe date" I'll still brainstorm, since it's so striking.
Stels, are you kidding? are you really going to manage your portfolio this way? what 3-4 percent? you take the average annual for at least 10-15 years! What does estimated return mean? why not 35? why not 5? How is it calculated? Average number? Yes, if the portfolio is replenished, then in fact, you are not particularly needed here)) it’s stupid even to buy the same Gazprom if you will get a plus sooner or later))) Of course, this adds stability, or rather, not even so.
Of course, it will not make it difficult, any more or less serious book usually contains this information. It is curious, what exactly did you read before offering your services to people?
Well, just in the light of recent events ... well, you yourself understand that the issue of professionalism is very relevant.
What does expensive mean? This can be said almost always if you trade on the left side of the chart. I sell here, I buy here. How do you determine at the moment? are there methods? Right now RTS is expensive or cheap?
Of course, think about it)) And then a lot of questions arise!
matroskin, essentially.
Estimated profitability is calculated based on personal experience, from literature with research on this topic, from communication with more experienced investors in the Russian market. So it is counted. But this does not mean that it cannot be negative in some year.
If you buy one Gazprom, then there will be no diversification.
RTS is neither expensive nor cheap. Must watch individual shares, some are expensive, some are cheap, some are priced fairly.
I have no goal to reveal all the methods and approaches. I manage a portfolio (https://intelinvest.ru/public-portfolio/9143/?ref=17237, ), you can watch it. Then a year or two will pass, there will be some kind of story about how he behaves.
Stels, OK, in essence. What literature and what authors have you read? What are you guided by? I do not need a method, but a person who would trust you to manage money can at least ask these things. Right?
You don’t need to talk about Gazprom and diversification. Here I’m talking banality.
Nikkei in 1990 could also be described that way. Not expensive, not cheap, since there were probably both overvalued and undervalued stocks. That is a general answer, but you seem to be essentially ...
Well, maybe then it makes sense to offer services to people when a year or two passes and there will be some kind of public history and statistics? You are not going to manage for free? Did I understand correctly? So I’m trying. You’ll forgive me for being meticulous, but in our market you’ll get into the manager wherever you go)) True, then some of the broadcasts disappear) I wonder how competent people are in this area.
It is curious how you differ from Ramil Ibragimov, for example.
matroskin, Upvoted your comment. Really glad to have our conversation, because ask really important questions. As I understand it, you are for the cleanliness of the ranks, which cannot but rejoice.
Special thanks for mentioning Ramil. I looked for it, looked, at first sight, everything is perfectly painted, I will study it.
In order not to produce a lot of answers that are not to the point, I take a break for a while to remember something, think it over and formulate everything. Not saying goodbye.
Stels, mutually! Yes, indeed, I am for the purity of the ranks! I think cleanliness will benefit the entire industry and increase people's confidence in investments.
Yes, for nothing. I myself find his approach very interesting.
ok. I will be glad to further communication.
matroskin, I'll go straight through the text of the previous comment so as not to miss anything.
Stels, OK, in essence. What literature and what authors have you read? What are you guided by? I do not need a method, but a person who would trust you to manage money can at least ask these things. Right?
I agree. I didn't want to reveal all the cards yet. But since there is such a lively interest, I will tell you a little more.
Personally, I have been investing in my account using this method since November 7, 2016. Dynamics is positive. In the spring-summer fall of 2017, I bought more promising shares. But I focus not only on my own experience, but also on the experience of other investors who have been investing in individual stocks for more than 10 years. On a paid and free basis, I have access to the knowledge of more experienced colleagues.
In general, I have been working in the stock market as a trader from December 2009 to the present, when I was 25 years old. I became seriously interested in the topic of investments in 2016, I have been showing interest to varying degrees since 2004. I don't have any official credentials.
For books and authors. I started compiling a list so as not to stretch this comment here, I will make a separate post in the coming days with a list of books on investment topics that I have read, am reading and plan to read. Those. I have a post about books.
You don’t need to talk about Gazprom and diversification. Here I’m talking banality.
Don't understand what's wrong here? If you buy one Gazprom, the result will be worse than buying shares that are fundamentally and technically more attractive. And to form a basket of such shares, periodically making shifts.
Nikkei in 1990 could also be described that way. Not expensive, not cheap, since there were probably both overvalued and undervalued stocks. That is a general answer, but you seem to be essentially ...
For Japan. Quote "The Japanese financial bubble is an economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991, characterized by multiple increases in prices in the real estate market and the stock market." This is the definition from Wikipedia, which contains almost the entire answer.
In general, you need to look at the ratio of dividend yield on shares and yield on government bonds. Now in Russia, the dividend yield is 7-10%, in some cases more. And also, in some cases, dividends will increase, and hence the share price. For bonds within 8%. If the dividend yield approaches 5% or less, then this is one of the signs of the “high cost” of the market. Well, other factors also come into play. Therefore, we can say that the RTS (or MICEX) is not as expensive now as the Nikkei was in 1991, although I will not give you specific numbers, because. the essence is important.
What do you think, was Nikkei expensive then or not? And why?
Well, maybe then it makes sense to offer services to people when a year or two passes and there will be some kind of public history and statistics? You are not going to manage for free? Did I understand correctly? So I’m trying. You’ll forgive me for being meticulous, but in our market you’ll get into the manager wherever you go)) True, then some of the broadcasts disappear) I wonder how competent people are in this area. Well, I don’t write to anyone in a personal to buy my services. I voiced my proposal, each person will decide whether it suits him or not. Or he will consider that I have told little about myself, have little experience and will pass by. I already have history and statistics, not public. For some, not enough. For meticulousness I forgive :-), the main thing is that it should not be the goal itself.
At the expense of my competence, I will answer this way. My target audience is a long-term investor, of course, preferably much longer than 5 years. Only this investor does not understand the stock market. As I, for example, do not understand computers well (although this is not an example for long term investment, but for understanding will go). It’s easier for me to ask a specialist, even if not the best on the market, but who understands much better than me why something doesn’t work, how to fix it, than to study the forums myself, etc.
And this investor meets me on his way. For him, I will be a storehouse of knowledge. And he will be willing to pay me for my experience, time, etc., thus saving his time. I will deal with the details of services later. So far, I just announced that such a service exists.
It is curious how you differ from Ramil Ibragimov, for example.
About why I'm better than any other adviser, manager, etc.? I do not claim that I am better. Each has its pros and cons. Everyone has their own approach. In the future, I will refine both my approach and the description of my approach. Some will like it, some won't like it. This is logical and natural. At the moment, according to my recommendations, 4 portfolios of people from a close circle are being managed.
Stels, since November 2016? Have you been trading since 2009? That is, how would the portfolio behave in 2008 and 1998, God forbid it happens again, you can't even imagine?
With regards to Gazprom, I mean that they like to give an argument and a counterargument, they say that those who bought at 350, well, there are more or less ready-made answers. So that you don’t waste time on banality. Of course, if you take 1 tool, then the risks are higher.
About Nikkei) do you understand that after 10 years they can write in the same way about a bubble in the stock market of the Russian Federation? And they will be able to justify it. But at the moment, a few can do it. Yes, of course, both divas and the growth of shares, this is all wonderful. I think in 1929 everyone reasoned like that too? And the fact that divas can fall and growth will be replaced by a fall, that there will be a wagon and a cart for bankruptcy)) Nobody knows what will happen in a year, let alone 5.
But in general, I agree with you that the RTS is not as expensive as the Nikkei. But! an opinion is an opinion. And according to the facts, you can talk about cheapness, just like you can fall further. We don’t know all the factors. falls with rare spitting upwards. And more than one year.
About the storehouse of knowledge… There are smart people, very smart, but not rich. There are some evaluation criteria - LCHI, Bentley in the garage due to trade) Well, just kidding. You understand what's the matter, asking a computer specialist who understands a little better than me seems not the best option to me. There is a non-zero probability that he will be mistaken , and the computer will grunt at me. Here, either a pro or learn. Well, this is my opinion. I’m just already tired of meeting non-masters every day in real life. Builders, locksmiths, doctors. So I would still go to remove the appendicitis not to someone who understands a little better than me, but who will remove it and I will be healthy and alive! That is, there will be a positive result, and not some kind.
You are a brave person. Good luck to you. I hope everything will be fine and people from your inner circle will not be disappointed)
But in general, I agree with you that the RTS is not as expensive as the Nikkei. But! an opinion is an opinion. And according to the facts, you can talk about cheapness, just like you can fall further. We don’t know all the factors. falls with rare spitting upwards. And more than one year. Precisely because I take into account the history of the Nikkei of 1986-91, the crisis of 1929-32. in the USA, as well as other crises of the 20-21st century, I currently have about 50% of the portfolio in bonds, despite the fact that the portfolio is replenished. And due to the fact that the market can be falling and cheap, it happens. This approach takes this into account.About Secondary Resources, I can’t forgive for the 58th echelon. Especially for the D-list. You initially set a serious level of dialogue, and now you are indulging in such a dubious discussion. A company that is good for everyone does not have bonds trading at 2.5% with zero ACI. I would also understand the BSPB example, which has been trading well below its value for a long time with good reporting.
About the storehouse of knowledge… There are smart people, very smart, but not rich. There are some evaluation criteria - LCHI, Bentley in the garage due to trade) Well, just kidding.
Once again, I clarify that I am not currently engaged in active sales, cold calls, spam mailings, etc. And even if you did, if you do not see the necessary criteria for trust, then do not become a client, subscriber, etc. Everything is simple here.
You see, what's the matter here, asking a computer specialist who understands a little better than me seems not the best option to me. There is a non-zero probability that he will make a mistake, and the computer will grunt at me. I’m just tired of meeting non-masters every day in real life. Builders, locksmiths, doctors. There are certainly sensible, but also full of mediocrity. I, and who will remove it and I will be alive and healthy! That is, there will be a positive result, and not some kind.
To become a pro, you need to start somewhere. It will be too difficult to live, if at all possible, if you become a pro in any field of activity before you do something. Work with the pros, don't work with the untalented.
You are a brave person. Good luck to you. I hope everything will be fine and people from your inner circle will not be disappointed)