It is important to consider banking activities in conjunction with general economic indicators. The bank, working in the field of exchange and is not fenced off from the national economy. Therefore, its role is impossible to imagine isolated from the impact on the economy as a whole, from the way banks by providing their product help the development of the economy. For example, it would be problematic to consider the role of the bank only from the point of view of the mass of payment facilities provided on macro- and micro levels. The size of money issued testifies only to the transaction performed by the bank, without which the exchange would not take place, slowed down the course of production and product circulation. Release of payment tools - an important characteristic of banking activities. Emitting payment facilities has two sides: their mass has a huge impact on the stability of the monetary unit and on the efficiency of production and product circulation. These two sides are often presented in practice as antipodes, while both indicate a single appointment of the bank. The issue of money in appeal affects the production and appeal as a whole, for example, the excess of payment means destabilizes the money supply, causes inflation, leads to impairment of capital and accumulation, negatively affects both the money turnover, and to the money circulation.
Artificial deterrence of the cash flow required for exchange can cause difficulties in payments. Thus, in Russia in the early 1990s, the 20th century, the printing of money, their release in appeal was lagging behind the needs of cash circulation, which caused a delay in the payment of wages to employees of enterprises, pensions and benefits. One of the reasons for non-payment between enterprises in conditions of strong inflation and impairment of their capital (along with other reasons) was the lagging for emissions from the needs of the payment turnover, which in practice led to the suspension of production, turning the production of certain industrial products.
The stability of the monetary unit, compliance with its mass needs of the national economy is the most important indicator of the balanced policy of banks and how the activities of banks meet their appointment in the economy. Banks, although they work in the field of exchange, but not for the sake of sharing as such, which is inseparable from the production, distribution and consumption of public product. Therefore, the role of the bank on the macroeconomic level cannot be fully disclosed without taking into account its impact on the economy as a whole. The bank, being an exchange institute, works not only on him, but also on the final goals of consumers of banking services. In this regard, describing the role of the bank in the economy, should not be limited to indicators of only money supply, it is important to consider the volume of banking activities in relationships with the growth and treatment of public product achieved.
The impact of the role of the bank on general economic indicators can be traced on the example of its activities in the field of lending to the economy. The volume of this activity does not give a complete picture of the appointment of banks. So, during the period of economic crises, the need for loans increases significantly. Enterprises more often experience acute financial difficulties, mutual non-payment for various reasons (the difficulties of sales, failure to fulfill the obligations of obligations to pay for orders, the failure of debtors, etc.) achieve colossal sizes, cause a sharp increase in the need for a loan as a payment facility. Under these conditions, the needs of enterprises in additional payment facilities would be fully satisfied with banks. Experience shows that during economic crises, credit risks increase sharply. The increase in loans is not only accompanied by their adequate return, but, on the contrary, it causes a significant increase in overdue payments on loans leads to an increase in losses from credit operations. That is why during the crisis of banks, despite a significant increase in demand for credit, reduce their credit operations. In other words, the decline in production volumes is inevitably accompanied by a reduction in the volume of credit investments.
The appointment of banks as credit institutions does not change from this. Banks will not be able and have no right to unconditionally increase credit assistance to any customer who needs it, because they themselves work mainly on other people e.nygach. Increased risk of non-return of the loan obliges the Bank to conduct restrained credit policies. This does not mean that the bank completely ceases its credit activities. The bank will always remain primarily by the credit institution, the redistribution of the temporarily free cash continues; Only the volume of credit investments are reduced depending on both the general macroeconomic indicators of the state of production and on the size of the reduction of those resources that the bank can accumulate to the needs of crediting.
The activities of the Bank for lending to the national economy Contrary to the trends in the production and market of its products can also undermine the production, and the credit base based on the return movement of funds. Therefore, models of the optimal relationship between the growth of production and the growth of credit investments, the bank's assets and the share of loans in its assets are being developed, liquidity standards are established, proportions between loans and deposits, etc. Goals at the same time consist in curbing the unjustified credit expansion, reducing risks in banking activities. Based on this, it can be noted that qualitative side of the bank It is manifested in carrying out balanced policies aimed at achieving the maximum efficiency of production and banking. The way the bank succeeds in practice to pursue such a policy, ultimately determines the result - whether the Bank performs its appointment in the economy: there was its role positive or negative.
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Crimean Federal University
Tavrichesky National University. IN AND. Vernadsky
Department of Finance and Credit
"Macroeconomic analysis of quantitative indicators of the banking sector"
Performed
Fish group student - 431
Afonina Maria
Checked
ph.D., Strash. Takek Bekirov S.E.
Simferopol - 2015.
INTRODUCTION
Macroeconomic indicators are the basic assessment of the activities of not only the banking system of the country, but also the overall level of development of the country's economy.
Banking system is an integral part of economic System any country. Banks are a link between industry and trade, agriculture and the population. Thereby, the necessity and importance of banking structures, both for business and for the economy of the country as a whole. Banks are an attribute not a separate economic region or any one country, the scope of their activity has no geographical, nor national borders, this is a planetary phenomenon with colossal financial power, significant cash capital. All over the world, having great power, banks in Russia, however, lost their originally high role. And only the last few years have reached the prominent role for them.
The activities of banking institutions are so diverse that their actual essence is difficult to determine unambiguously. In modern society, banks are engaged in the most diverse types of operations. They not only organize money turnover and credit relations; Through them are funding industry and agriculture, insurance operations, purchase and sale of securities, and in some cases intermediary transactions and property management. Credit institutions act as consultants, participate in the discussion of national economic programs, lead statistics, have their own subsidized enterprises. The aim of the work is to consolidate and expand the theoretical and practical knowledge of the banking system of Russia necessary for macroeconomic indicators.
Data for consideration of theoretical aspects was taken from textbooks, scientific articles and regulatory documents.
1. Analysis of macroeconomic indicators of the banking sector of the Russian Federation
bank loan economic growth
Nowadays, this analysis is conducted judging by the data provided by the Central Banks of the Russian Federation.
Figure 1 - Macroeconomic indicators of the activities of the banking sector of the Russian Federation
Based on the above table, I noted sustainable trends in the field of structural construction of the Russian banking sector:
1. We observe an increase in assets by almost 150%, which is a positive trend. An increase in the bank's assets occurs due to active operations: lending, investment operations, other bank operations for the placement of own and attracted funds. An important quality of the bank's assets is to make profits.
2. Also positive is the trend of increasing its own funds of the bank almost 2 times. Own capital strengthens customer confidence in the bank, convincing avoiding the risk of investors in its financial strength, and borrowers - in the ability to meet the demand for commercial and consumer loans. For joint-stock banks, the size of own capital is a factor determining the course of its shares, in assessing the value of the Bank, they come from the size of its net assets, i.e. the actual equity capital, which allows us to talk about its pricing function.
Own capital provides income shareholders (participants) of the Bank - in proportion to the Passepy contribution to the authorized capital of each of its client (participant) is paid by the share of the Bank's profits in the form of dividends.
Sources of equity banks are authorized capital, additional capital, reserve fund and retained earnings.
The authorized capital of the credit institution is formed from the magnitude of the contributions of its participants and determines the minimum amount of property that guarantees the interests of its creditors. For joint stock banks, it is drawn up from the nominal value of their shares acquired by the founders. And for banks in the form of a society with limited or with more responsibility - from the nominal value of the shares of their founders. The value of the authorized capital is determined in the constituent agreement on the establishment of the Bank and in the Bank's Charter.
3. We observe the tendency to increase the number of loans issued 2.4 times or an increase of more than 130%, which indicates an increase in the total profit of commercial banks.
That in-premium talks about an affordable rate for the population to receive money, but on the other hand, the big risk from the bank.
4. Increase deposits individuals Speaks about the overall lifting of the life of the population. But it is necessary to keep in mind that the data is not today, and at the moment the condition in the country has changed a little.
2. Modern dance of the development of the banking sector of the Russian Federation
The events of recent years in the global economy have proven the close relationship of the financial and real sector development processes. The destabilization of the financial sector served as one of the reasons for the spread of crisis phenomena in the global economy as a whole. Nowadays, the economic community began to talk about the possible overcoming the acute phase of the crisis, at the same time noting the signs of education of recession (including in Russia). In this regard, the study of the problems of the development of a banking system as a key element of the financial system of our country seems to be relevant.
After analyzing various macro banking sector indicators, I would like to note sustainable trends in the field of structural construction of the banking sector of Russia:
1. Monopolization is a reduction in the number of participants (by almost 20%), weakening competition, the construction of the market in favor of large players (the concentration of assets of the 5 largest banks has grown from 43 to 50%).
2. Nationalization - the state participates in capital 8 of the 20 largest banks, their market share is growing beyond 50%, private capital is supplanted (inverse ransom of VTB-24 shares, the entry of VTB in the capital of the Bank of Moscow and the Bank St. Petersburg).
3. Federalization - reducing the number of participants is largely caused by banking integration processes with the predominance of absorption by federal banks of regional players to enter local markets.
4. Centralization - along with regional absorption, there is a concentration of management processes outside the regions by reducing branches (almost 30%) and expanding the non-independent structural units.
5. Globalization - the strengthening of foreign presence (the number of organizations with foreign participation increased by 1.5 times, the presence is incl. Among the 20 largest banks), the development of cooperation with international financial organizations (IFC, EBRD, etc.).
Combining identified trends, we can talk about consolidation processes in the banking system in two directions: state monopolization and reduction of regional independence. These events will correspond with the development of the economy, politics, society in Russia in recent years and in some sense are linked to him. Nevertheless, I believe it is necessary to designate the risks of preserving such trends:
1. Negative impact on the external environment (banks of banks and the economy as a whole) arising from the reduction of competition. Already, the expert community talks about the impossibility of private banks to compete with state participants for attractive corporate clients. Gradually, such conditions can spread to the banking sector as a whole, which reflects the numbers we have previously increasing the concentration of assets. Negative consequences of competition restrictions are known: reducing the availability and quality of services, which in the banking environment can mean deterioration of the conditions for lending to the real sector of the economy.
2. An unfavorable effect on the internal environment (the stability of the banking system) associated with low efficiency government controlled. The famous state of the ineffectiveness of the state as the owner is confirmed by the practice. In Wednesday, the 20 largest banks of Russia are state-owned in comparison with private have a lower ratio of assets (1.5% against 2.1%), a higher share of overdue debt in the loan portfolio (8.1% against 4.2%). In the event of a serious crisis situation, if large-scale state support is impossible, it will inevitably affect the sustainability of specific banks and the system as a whole.
As the necessary measures to change the current situation, I see a significant change in the role and methods of participation of the state in banking activities (aware that, above all, it depends on the political will of the first persons and the transformation of approaches to the management of economies and society). The specific and executing program for the privatization of state banks is needed (including in the format of public offering of shares available to the purchase of citizens), as well as the limitation of administrative ways of influence on banking activities (the opaque provision of state support funds, biased restrictions on the integration of private banks, etc.) . A set of measures to simplify banking integration in the environment of small and medium-sized regional banks should also be developed.
The measures proposed should be aimed at creating sustainable competition between three equal groups of banks: state, private, foreign (the proportion of the latter will inevitably increase).
In the field of resource attracting:
1. Changing the ratio of funding sources in favor of attracting resources in the domestic market of the country. During the period of the acute phase of crisis, it was significantly reduced and only partially the possibilities of attracting resources in foreign capital markets and in the securities market were restored to the current moment. In parallel, the share of deposits of enterprises and citizens in bank assets increased from 42 to 48%.
2. Advanced rates of attracting resources regarding their placement by banks. The total deposit portfolio rose by about 4.1 times, and the total loan portfolio - only 3.6 times. This is due to the indicated increase in the priority of deposits for banks and with the slowdown in lending rates during the crisis.
3. Negative real yield of bank deposits for resource owners. The weighted average rate on deposits up to 1 year and for enterprises, and for citizens in all annual periods, in addition to the last year, is at the level below inflation. One of the reasons is the excessive volatility of such resources for lending.
In the area of \u200b\u200bresource accommodation:
1. The advanced dynamics of retail lending relative to corporate. In 2011-2012 (After overcoming the acute phase of the crisis), the average annual growth rate of the retail loan portfolio amounted to about 37%, according to a corporate loan portfolio - only 20%. The list of advantages of the retail direction includes significantly higher marginalness at high risk diversification, as well as the lack of monopolization from state banks.
2. Disproportion of interest rates in several aspects. First, between the cost of attracting and accommodating resources (banks are attracted significantly lower and placed significantly higher than the level of inflation). Secondly, between rates on loans from different borrowers (significantly more expensive resources for the population). Thirdly, between the dynamics of credit rates and inflation and profitability levels (with a significant reduction in the latest indicators, lending does not become cheaper).
3. Detergence of the quality of the loan portfolio. It is clear that the jump-shaped increase in overdue debts in the portfolio (the difference between the minimum and peak values \u200b\u200bat the specified period is 3-4 times) is caused by crisis phenomena. Nevertheless, maintaining an indicator at a high level of 4.0-4.5% (and among the 20 largest banks - at the level of 6%) reflects the low efficiency of debt refund mechanisms both within the banks themselves and in the external environment (judicial and executive system) .
When combining the trends identified by me, the following idea is formed on the movement of financial resources as a result of the activities of Russia's banking institutions. In general, the processes of attraction and placement are developing dynamically, but there are some imbalance. Relying largely on resident resources, banks do not use them in due measure for the development of the real sector. Lending is conducted at high rates, slow motion (relative to the attraction of resources), the disproportion towards retail lending with high risks and marginity. In other words, banking acquires speculative features, which is confirmed, including a significant increase in total profit against the background of a slowdown in the growth rate of the economy as a whole (table).
In my opinion, the following risks of preserving the current trends are possible:
1. Negative impact on the pace of economic development. Experts note a decline in the role of a bank loan in ensuring economic growth. The rapid growth of the loan portfolio does not lead to a significant increase in GDP, since loans are not sent in the right amount on investments of enterprises and the purchase of Russian goods and housing by citizens; Such lending also affects the development of inflation.
2. Negative impact on the stability of the development of the economy. First, the deterioration of the conditions for lending to production, especially investment investments, sets the risks of the final exhaustion of fundamental fund resources. Secondly, the speculative nature of retail credit investments against the background of slowing down the growth rate of the economy determines the risk of destabilization of the banking system and the economy as a whole.
I propose to consider the following activities aimed at improving the development parameters of the country's banking sector and strengthening its role in macroeconomics.
First, new sources of long-term funding and mechanisms are required that guarantee the investment by banks of the resources to lending to the real sector. The most obvious ways are the legalization of deposits without the right to early demand, as well as increasing the liability threshold in the deposit insurance system (both positions are formulated at the level of bills). The new measures could be the obligatory placement of a part of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund at the perimeter of the Banking System of Russia.
Secondly, the conditions encouraging banks to prioritize consumer lending should be minimized. At the legislative level, it is desirable to increase the requirements for pricing transparency, it is desirable by prohibiting any commissions in addition to interest rates on bank loans. It should also simplify the requirements for the activities of non-bank credit institutions in the field of microfinance and consumer lending.
Thirdly, it is necessary to take systemic measures to improve the processes of recovery of problem debt. It follows at the level of the law to resolve the activities of collectors, including finally consolidate the right of banks to give up arrears in the cessia collectors without a banking license. It is also required to simplify the procedures for the implementation of the laid property (including with the involvement of electronic platforms), to implement a set of measures to reform the bidding service to improve the execution of court decisions.
In the submitted study, I conducted a macroeconomic analysis of the development of the banking system of Russia in the period from 2008 to 2013, which includes functioning both in stable and in unstable conditions. As a result of the study of the complex of indicators in the dynamics, as well as expert opinions, I came to the following conclusions. From the point of view of high-quality analysis, two related processes are observed: strengthening the role of the state as a participant in banking activities and the centralization of the management processes at the federal level. From the point of view of quantitative analysis, we see the weakening of production lending in the real sector of the economy and reduce the role of the loan in ensuring the growth of the economy. The proposed set of activities, including at the level of legislative changes, is aimed at strengthening banking competition and reducing the speculative orientation of credit activities.
List of used literature
1. Shaposhnikov I.G. Integration of banking structures as a factor in the socio-economic development of the region: dis. ... Cand. ECON. science - Perm, 2010. - P. 55-94.
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Crimean Federal University
Tavrichesky National University. IN AND. Vernadsky
Department of Finance and Credit
"Macroeconomic analysis of quantitative indicators of the banking sector"
Performed
Fish group student - 431
Afonina Maria
Checked
ph.D., Strash. Takek Bekirov S.E.
Simferopol - 2015.
INTRODUCTION
Macroeconomic indicators are the basic assessment of the activities of not only the banking system of the country, but also the overall level of development of the country's economy.
The banking system is an integral part of the economic system of any country. Banks are a link between industry and trade, agriculture and the population. Thereby, the necessity and importance of banking structures, both for business and for the economy of the country as a whole. Banks are an attribute not a separate economic region or any one country, the scope of their activity has no geographical, nor national borders, this is a planetary phenomenon with colossal financial power, significant cash capital. All over the world, having great power, banks in Russia, however, lost their originally high role. And only the last few years have reached the prominent role for them.
The activities of banking institutions are so diverse that their actual essence is difficult to determine unambiguously. In modern society, banks are engaged in the most diverse types of operations. They not only organize money turnover and credit relations; Through them are funding industry and agriculture, insurance operations, purchase and sale of securities, and in some cases intermediary transactions and property management. Credit institutions act as consultants, participate in the discussion of national economic programs, lead statistics, have their own subsidized enterprises. The aim of the work is to consolidate and expand the theoretical and practical knowledge of the banking system of Russia necessary for macroeconomic indicators.
Data for consideration of theoretical aspects was taken from textbooks, scientific articles and regulatory documents.
1. Analysis of macroeconomic indicators of the banking sector of the Russian Federation
bank loan economic growth
Nowadays, this analysis is conducted judging by the data provided by the Central Banks of the Russian Federation.
Figure 1 - Macroeconomic indicators of the activities of the banking sector of the Russian Federation
Based on the above table, I noted sustainable trends in the field of structural construction of the Russian banking sector:
We observe an increase in assets by almost 150%, which is a positive trend. An increase in the bank's assets occurs due to active operations: lending, investment operations, other bank operations for the placement of own and attracted funds. An important quality of the bank's assets is to make profits.
Also positive is the trend of increasing its own funds of the bank almost 2 times. Own capital strengthens customer confidence in the bank, convincing avoiding the risk of investors in its financial strength, and borrowers - in the ability to meet the demand for commercial and consumer loans. For joint-stock banks, the size of own capital is a factor determining the course of its shares, in assessing the value of the Bank, they come from the size of its net assets, i.e. the actual equity capital, which allows us to talk about its pricing function.
Own capital provides income shareholders (participants) of the Bank - in proportion to the Passepy contribution to the authorized capital of each of its client (participant) is paid by the share of the Bank's profits in the form of dividends.
Sources of equity banks are authorized capital, additional capital, reserve fund and retained earnings.
The authorized capital of the credit institution is formed from the magnitude of the contributions of its participants and determines the minimum amount of property that guarantees the interests of its creditors. For joint stock banks, it is drawn up from the nominal value of their shares acquired by the founders. And for banks in the form of a society with limited or with more responsibility - from the nominal value of the shares of their founders. The value of the authorized capital is determined in the constituent agreement on the establishment of the Bank and in the Bank's Charter.
We observe the tendency to increase the number of issued loans 2.4 times or an increase of more than 130%, which indicates an increase in the total profit of commercial banks.
That in-premium talks about an affordable rate for the population to receive money, but on the other hand, the big risk from the bank.
Increased deposits of individuals speaks of the overall lifting of the population. But it is necessary to keep in mind that the data is not today, and at the moment the condition in the country has changed a little.
Modern dance of the development of the banking sector of the Russian Federation
The events of recent years in the global economy have proven the close relationship of the financial and real sector development processes. The destabilization of the financial sector served as one of the reasons for the spread of crisis phenomena in the global economy as a whole. Nowadays, the economic community began to talk about the possible overcoming the acute phase of the crisis, at the same time noting the signs of education of recession (including in Russia). In this regard, the study of the problems of the development of a banking system as a key element of the financial system of our country seems to be relevant.
After analyzing various macro banking sector indicators, I would like to note sustainable trends in the field of structural construction of the banking sector of Russia:
Monopolization is a reduction in the number of participants (by almost 20%), the weakening of competition, the construction of the market in favor of large players (the concentration of assets of the 5 largest banks has grown from 43 to 50%).
Nationalization - the state participates in capital 8 of the 20 largest banks, their market share is growing beyond 50%, private capital is supplanted (inverse ransom of VTB-24 shares, the entry of VTB in the capital of the Bank of Moscow and Bank St. Petersburg).
Federalization is a reduction in the number of participants is largely caused by the processes of banking integration with the predominance of absorption by federal banks of regional players to enter local markets.
Centralization - along with regional absorption, the concentration of management processes outside the regions by reducing branches (by almost 30%) and the expansion of non-independent structural units.
Globalization is a strengthening of foreign presence (the number of organizations with foreign participation increased by 1.5 times, presence, incl. Among the 20 largest banks), the development of cooperation with international financial organizations (IFC, EBRD, etc.).
Combining identified trends, we can talk about consolidation processes in the banking system in two directions: state monopolization and reduction of regional independence. These events will correspond with the development of the economy, politics, society in Russia in recent years and in some sense are linked to him. Nevertheless, I believe it is necessary to designate the risks of preserving such trends:
Negative impact on the external environment (banks of banks and the economy as a whole) arising from the reduction of competition. Already, the expert community talks about the impossibility of private banks to compete with state participants for attractive corporate clients. Gradually, such conditions can spread to the banking sector as a whole, which reflects the numbers we have previously increasing the concentration of assets. Negative consequences of competition restrictions are known: reducing the availability and quality of services, which in the banking environment can mean deterioration of the conditions for lending to the real sector of the economy.
As the necessary measures to change the current situation, I see a significant change in the role and methods of participation of the state in banking activities (aware that, above all, it depends on the political will of the first persons and the transformation of approaches to the management of economies and society). The specific and executing program for the privatization of state banks is needed (including in the format of public offering of shares available to the purchase of citizens), as well as the limitation of administrative ways of influence on banking activities (the opaque provision of state support funds, biased restrictions on the integration of private banks, etc.) . A set of measures to simplify banking integration in the environment of small and medium-sized regional banks should also be developed.
The measures proposed should be aimed at creating sustainable competition between three equal groups of banks: state, private, foreign (the proportion of the latter will inevitably increase).
In the field of resource attracting:
Changing the ratio of funding sources in favor of attracting resources in the domestic market of the country. During the period of the acute phase of crisis, it was significantly reduced and only partially the possibilities of attracting resources in foreign capital markets and in the securities market were restored to the current moment. In parallel, the share of deposits of enterprises and citizens in bank assets increased from 42 to 48%.
Advanced rates of attracting resources regarding their placement by banks. The total deposit portfolio rose by about 4.1 times, and the total loan portfolio - only 3.6 times. This is due to the indicated increase in the priority of deposits for banks and with the slowdown in lending rates during the crisis.
Negative real yield of bank deposits for owners of resources. The weighted average rate on deposits up to 1 year and for enterprises, and for citizens in all annual periods, in addition to the last year, is at the level below inflation. One of the reasons is the excessive volatility of such resources for lending.
In the area of \u200b\u200bresource accommodation:
The advanced dynamics of retail lending relative to corporate. In 2011-2012 (After overcoming the acute phase of the crisis), the average annual growth rate of the retail loan portfolio amounted to about 37%, according to a corporate loan portfolio - only 20%. The list of advantages of the retail direction includes significantly higher marginalness at high risk diversification, as well as the lack of monopolization from state banks.
Disproportion of interest rates in several aspects. First, between the cost of attracting and accommodating resources (banks are attracted significantly lower and placed significantly higher than the level of inflation). Secondly, between rates on loans from different borrowers (significantly more expensive resources for the population). Thirdly, between the dynamics of credit rates and inflation and profitability levels (with a significant reduction in the latest indicators, lending does not become cheaper).
Deterioration of the quality of the loan portfolio. It is clear that the jump-shaped increase in overdue debts in the portfolio (the difference between the minimum and peak values \u200b\u200bat the specified period is 3-4 times) is caused by crisis phenomena. Nevertheless, maintaining an indicator at a high level of 4.0-4.5% (and among the 20 largest banks - at the level of 6%) reflects the low efficiency of debt refund mechanisms both within the banks themselves and in the external environment (judicial and executive system) .
When combining the trends identified by me, the following idea is formed on the movement of financial resources as a result of the activities of Russia's banking institutions. In general, the processes of attraction and placement are developing dynamically, but there are some imbalance. Relying largely on resident resources, banks do not use them in due measure for the development of the real sector. Lending is conducted at high rates, slow motion (relative to the attraction of resources), the disproportion towards retail lending with high risks and marginity. In other words, banking acquires speculative features, which is confirmed, including a significant increase in total profit against the background of a slowdown in the growth rate of the economy as a whole (table).
In my opinion, the following risks of preserving the current trends are possible:
Negative impact on the pace of economic development. Experts note a decline in the role of a bank loan in ensuring economic growth. The rapid growth of the loan portfolio does not lead to a significant increase in GDP, since loans are not sent in the right amount on investments of enterprises and the purchase of Russian goods and housing by citizens; Such lending also affects the development of inflation.
Negative impact on the stability of the development of the economy. First, the deterioration of the conditions for lending to production, especially investment investments, sets the risks of the final exhaustion of fundamental fund resources. Secondly, the speculative nature of retail credit investments against the background of slowing down the growth rate of the economy determines the risk of destabilization of the banking system and the economy as a whole.
I propose to consider the following activities aimed at improving the development parameters of the country's banking sector and strengthening its role in macroeconomics.
First, new sources of long-term funding and mechanisms are required that guarantee the investment by banks of the resources to lending to the real sector. The most obvious ways are the legalization of deposits without the right to early demand, as well as increasing the liability threshold in the deposit insurance system (both positions are formulated at the level of bills). The new measures could be the obligatory placement of a part of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund at the perimeter of the Banking System of Russia.
Secondly, the conditions encouraging banks to prioritize consumer lending should be minimized. At the legislative level, it is desirable to increase the requirements for pricing transparency, it is desirable by prohibiting any commissions in addition to interest rates on bank loans. It should also simplify the requirements for the activities of non-bank credit institutions in the field of microfinance and consumer lending.
Thirdly, it is necessary to take systemic measures to improve the processes of recovery of problem debt. It follows at the level of the law to resolve the activities of collectors, including finally consolidate the right of banks to give up arrears in the cessia collectors without a banking license. It is also required to simplify the procedures for the implementation of the laid property (including with the involvement of electronic platforms), to implement a set of measures to reform the bidding service to improve the execution of court decisions.
List of used literature
1. Shaposhnikov I.G. Integration of banking structures as a factor in the socio-economic development of the region: dis. ... Cand. ECON. science - Perm, 2010. - P. 55-94.
Necessity and content assessment
Types of assessment of the activities of a commercial bank. The activities of any functioning unit requires evaluation as a reflection of the results achieved by him. At the same time, depending on who conducts an assessment of the Bank's activities, it may be internal or external.
Internal assessment Exercised by the Bank itself as a management element. Internal assessment involves assessing the development of the Bank, its financial standing, compliance with current legislation and prudential internal regulations and instructions, competitive position.
External score carried out by different subjects for various purposes. It can be held by the central bank or other bank supervisory authority, audit firms, partner banks, rating agencies, clients. Appointment and methods of such assessments of unequal. Depending on the purposes, three types of external marks can be distinguished:
Assessment of quantitative, voluminous indicators;
Assessment of high-quality activities: financial condition (reliability);
Assessment of the status of accounting and reporting.
The assessment of quantitative indicators is carried out both by the Bank itself and external organizations (by the Central Bank, rating agencies). The appointment of the assessment is to determine the scale of the development of the entire banking system and individual banks, in identifying the leaders of the banking business, in the establishment of success or defeat specific banks in competition.
The result of this assessment is the annual compilation of a consolidated table that determines the hierarchy of banks in the relevant period. These are also compiled at the international, and at the national level; Includes absolute and relative indicators, as well as changes in indicators for the year.
The indicator for which the formation and ranking of the largest banks at the international level occurs:
The total amount of assets at the end of the calendar (financial) year on the consolidated balance sheet of the bank;
The total amount of deposits for the same date;
General debt on issued loans;
The volume of equity bank;
The amount of net profit (profit minus taxes) for the past year;
Yield of assets (net profit ratio average annual cost assets);
Profitability of capital (ratio of net profit to the average annual value of equity);
Capital ratio to assets at the end of the year;
Profit to income on its own shares.
The assessment of the qualitative aspects of the Bank's activities allows to determine its reliability based on the analysis of the financial condition and risk management system. In this case, there are two approaches to such an assessment. The first approach is used in organizing interbank relations. It is based mainly on an individual analysis technique for determining credit conditions and settlement operations between banks. Such analysis is carried out by one of the bank's divisions: it is selective (i.e. concerns only those banks with which this bank Enters into account) and does not provide for the establishment of the bank's rating. The source of information is the reporting and other data submitted by commercial banks to each other in the event of a need for interbank cooperation.
Fig. 9.1. Types of estimates of the activities of commercial banks.
Evaluation Goals:
1. Installing banks for volumes.
2. Ranking banks on reliability (financial sustainability).
3. Replacement of current legislation.
4. Accounting and reporting.
5. Fingered by press rating.
The second approach is characteristic of the independent expertise of the activities of commercial banks, which is subject to all or most of the commercial banks. The result of the examination is their rating assessment. The rating assessment of commercial banks can be carried out independent rating agencies, as well as organizations carrying out bank supervision on behalf of the country's government.
Rating agencies for assessments, as a rule, use the reporting materials of banks published in open printing. Agencies are developed by their own methods for assessing the reliability of commercial banks. The results of the estimates are published in print.
Bank customers also evaluate their activities for the range, quality and goals of banking products; Quality of service, reliability of financial stability. Each client pursues individual and relationships with the bank, creates its own idea of \u200b\u200bthe Bank's activities, using both formal and informal characteristics. As a result, he decides on the choice of a bank and types of interaction in the formation of the Deposit Base of the Bank and to obtain the necessary bank products under conditions that are mutually beneficial to both parties.
Different subjects of the assessment of the activities of Russian banks are not interested in the current situation, but also the prospects for the activities of the Bank and its financial sustainability. At the level of specific banks, this trend is expressed in the difference in strategic planning; At the Bank of Russia - in the development of forecast models of financial sustainability of banks. However, this direction of assessing the activities of banks in Russia is only formed, given the adequacy in terms of the volume and quality of the necessary information and experience of such an assessment.
Principles of assessing activities.
Eli Principles are concluded in the following basic provisions.
1. Considering the specifics of the bank, the main areas of analysis of its activities should be: the level of profitability, the state of liquidity, quality
assets and sufficiency of reserves, capital adequacy, bank management efficiency.
2. Absolute indicators contain too little information on the activities of the Bank, so it is necessary to prefer the comparative analysis of banks within the country. For this, banks are classified according to various features: type of banking business, bank size, etc., and then compare banks in one market segment.
3. To determine the comparative analysis, it is required to create a uniform format containing key positions on the activities of the Bank. Key positions determine the content of the specific indicators of the Bank's activities and the methods of their assessment. The main types of indicators of banks are structural, characterizing the specific gravity of individual groups of assets, obligations, income, expenses, etc., and financial coefficients. When analyzing the relevant indicators, they are compared with the criteria level, as well as to homogeneous banks, the construction of trends, the analysis of factors that determined the level of indicators.
4. The correct conclusions can be based only on the correct understanding of the participation features in the banking sector and each particular bank. Bank's balance sheet and its profit and loss statement does not always reflect the real state of affairs. It is necessary to know what lies for each of the official statements.
5. The success of financial analysis depends on the thoughtful approach of analysts to the information received. A good analyst must put himself to the manager of the manager to understand the strategy of his actions and the peculiarities of the problems of a particular bank.
The activity of the bank as a whole is characterized by a number of directions, whose assessment is often not unambiguous. To bring to a single assessment of various private results and comparisons, the group of banks use the rating system.
in choosing a qualitative sign of comparison;
in the definition of criteria and indicators used for analysis;
Development of methods for assessing the actual levels of individual indicators and the overall result of the Bank's activities;
The development of the principles of construction and characteristics of groups of banks in the rating table.
The most common qualitative sign of the comparative characteristics of banks abroad and in Russia is their reliability.
In foreign practice, a rich experience of the rating assessment of the reliability of commercial banks has already been accumulated. As an example, you can consider the Camel rating system used in the United States and underlying many systems of surveillance assessments.
The criteria for assessing the reliability of commercial banks make up the basis of the entire rating system. They are attributed to the USA:
Capital adequacy;
Asset quality;
Yield;
Liquidity;
Management.
Capital adequacy. In modern systems of estimated indicators of business banks, the central place belongs to the indicators of the adequacy of equity. The bank's own capital is a factor that provides an adequate basis for the growth of active operations of the Bank, the main source of reimbursement of possible losses in the insufficiency of current income, as well as the guarantee of protecting the interests of depositors and creditors.
Assessing the adequacy of equity of own capital of the Bank involves: determination of capital adequacy criteria, the choice of indicators characterizing capital adequacy and evaluation of the actual level of relevant indicators.
The most simplified criterion of capital adequacy in the past was considered to be the correspondence of its volume of 5% of the total assets.
Evaluation of capital adequacy includes a set of basic and additional indicators. The main indicators include: the main capital adequacy ratio and the main and additional capital adequacy ratio.
The main capital of the bank includes: simple shares, as well as the excess of their exchange rate value of nominal, indefinite non-proclaimed shares: reserves provided by law and other types of reserves created by capitalization of a part of retained earnings, revenues from the sale of shares at a price higher than the nominal value: published Retained residue profits. The sum estimated in this way of fixed capital decreases by the magnitude of intangible assets involved in the formation of share capital and the amount of own shares bought from shareholders.
Additional capital includes subordinated debt, medium-term and permanent preferred shares, various types of reserves for compensation for currency and credit risks, as well as to cover possible losses and others. Additional capital, included in total capital, should relate to fixed capital as 1: 1 .
To calculate the capital adequacy ratios, the amount of assets is weighed taking into account possible risk, which is determined on the basis of the recommendations adopted by the Basel Agreement (Table 9.1. 9.2).
The main indicators of capital adequacy are
|
Types of Banking Articles Bank |
Risk value |
|
Cash (cashier) Cash in the way Requirements for central governments or central banks; Requirements provided with cash or government securities or guaranteed by central governments. Requirements for local public organizations, with the exception of the central government, and loans guaranteed by such organizations. Requirements for international development banks and requirements guaranteed by these banks or securities provided by these banks. Requirements for the private sector. Requirements for public commercial companies. Buildings, equipment and other fixed assets Real estate and other investments (including unconsolidated participation in other companies) Debt obligations of other banks (if they are not deducted from capital) All other assets (with the exception of "affordable" capital). General guarantees on debt and financial instruments such as safeguards, including reserve letters of credit that fulfill the role of financial guarantees on loans and securities or in support of them. Risk separation in bank acceptances and in direct subaccounts of the loan (for example, reserve letters of credit). Agreements for the sale and purchase of previously sold and sales of assets with the right of regression, if they are already included in the balance sheet. Urgent agreements (i.e., contractual obligations) on the purchase of assets, including funds with a certain refund requirement. Additional unforeseen obligations related to transactions (for example, bonds redeemed on request or depending on performance indicators, guarantees and reserve letters of credit relating to specific transactions). Non-use obligations with a starting maturity of over 1 year. Means for renewing accommodation guarantees (RUF), funds for issuing banking tickets (NIF), etc. Unused obligations with the initial maturity of 1 year or less. Unused obligations definitely canceled at any time, regardless of maturity. |
Least At least 20. At least 20. |
The main indicators of sufficiency are as follows:
The coefficient of sufficiency of fixed capital:
K 1 \u003d. Capital main . 100%;
Assets weighted with risk
The coefficient of adequacy of aggregate capital:
K 2 \u003d. Capital Cumulative (basic + additional) . 100%
Assets weighted with risk
Additional indicators are primarily attributed to the ledge indicator, which characterizes the share of fixed capital in assets. The Leverage coefficient is calculated as the ratio of fixed capital to the average amount of assets on the balance sheet of the bank. The leverage is set at 3% for all banks.
Additional indicators specifying and complementing the state of the main indicators also include:
The sufficiency ratio of material fixed capital (the ratio of fixed capital minus intangible assets to the average amount of assets);
Risk assets coefficient;
The volume and dynamics of critical and low-quality assets.
The final conclusion on capital adequacy is made on the basis of, firstly, the comparisons of the actual levels of the coefficients of the main indicators with the criteria levels taken in the country and, secondly, evaluating the results of analyzing the quality of assets.
A five-point scale is used to assess capital adequacy in the Camel system. To set the final assessment of capital adequacy, the following coefficients are used (Table 9.3).
35. Subject of banking statistics.
Banking statistics- The financial statistics industry, the tasks of which are obtaining information for the characteristics of the functions performed by the banking system, the development of analytical materials for the needs of the monetary system of the country, primarily credit and cash planning and controlling the use of plans.
The system of indicators of banknotes consists of four levels:
1.Work indicators . It is contained in statistical sources or are calculated. The initial indicators characterize the main factors of the level of development of the banking system of the region or the country as a whole.
These include:
the absolute value of banking assets;
inflation rate;
the magnitude of real assets;
incomes of the population for the month preceding the reporting date;
number of banks registered in this area;
the number of branches of banks registered in the region, regardless of the location of these branches;
number of banking institutions in the region;
index number of bank institutions in the region;
the average number of branches created by one bank;
share loans in assets.
2. Base indexes, obtained on the basis of the initial indicators, and characterizing the difference between the main facts of the level of development of the banking system of the region from the average Russian level.
These include:
1.Mine indices characterizing the conditions of banking activities.
2. Required (existing) indices that characterize the conditions of banking activities indirectly, according to the final results, which are affected by a significant number of factors that are not amenable to individual accounting.
3. Comparitive attractive index conditions of banking . It is a final comparative index.
4. Embossed indicators of the development of the banking system. The fourth level indicators can be grouped as follows:
1. The number of bank institutions in the region;
3.Indexes characterizing the amount of assets of banking institutions for 1 million rubles of income of the population.
36. Population as an object and a subject of economic activity. Indicators of the number, composition and movement of the population.
The population is a set of people living within a certain territory: parts of the country, the whole country, groups of countries, the globe, continuously renewed due to births and deaths. The population is an object and a subject of economic activity, since, on the one hand, it is a direct member of the production process, and on the other, the consumer of all created.
Knowledge of the population and composition of the population is necessary for the planning of the economic and social development of the country as a whole and its individual territories. The main source of population information is:
Current accounting (born, dead, arriving at one or another territory and retired) allows you to determine the population every year on the basis of the last census;
Solid and sample surveys (in particular, the population census, selective socio-demographic studies) give the most complete and accurate information about the number and composition of the population.
Information on the population on the census materials is made on a specific date or on a certain (critical) moment. In the intervals between the censuses, the population of individual settlements is determined by the estimated pathway on the basis of the initial data of the latest census and these current accounting of the natural and mechanical movement of the population in the balance sheet scheme:
Population at the beginning of the year (SN)
Number of born for the year (N)
Number of arrivals for the year (V +)
The number of dead per year (m)
The number of retired for the year (V -)
Population population at the end of the year (SK)
The main source of population formation is the natural increase (N - M) and the migration balance (V + - V -) in absolute terms. Natural increase is formed at n\u003e m, natural decrease - with n< М. механический приток или положительное сальдо миграции образуется при V + > V -; Mechanical outflow or negative migration balance - with V +< V - .
In determining the population of individual settlements, various categories can be taken into account on a certain date in censuses and surveys: constant and cash.
Cash is considered to be the population for various reasons in this territory at the critical moment of the census, regardless of whether it lives here constantly or temporarily (NN).
The constant is considered that part of the cash population, which constantly lives in this place, regardless of whether it was here on the critical moment of the census (PN).
The part of the permanent population, which was absent at the place of its permanent residence at the critical moment of the census, is considered temporarily absent population (V).
The part of the cash population, which was in this territory at the critical moment of the census and is not its permanent population, is considered to be a temporarily residing population (VP).
Motion indicators are 1000 people, i.e. expressed in the form of relative quantities in PROMILL (‰):