The recession in Belarus will continue next year, although the depth of the economic downturn is expected to be lower compared to 2016. The possible reaction of the state to such a situation causes a lot of discussion in expert circles. In particular, various options for the political consequences of unresolved economic difficulties are discussed.
According to experts, next year will be Belarusian economy bottoming period. Illustration: CC0
The economy will find a bottom
The recession in Belarus has been observed for two years already, and in 2017, according to the forecast of a number of experts, the GDP of Belarus will also remain in the red. The staff of the International Monetary Fund expects the economic downturn to be 0.5%, economists at the IPM Research Center predict a decline in GDP by 0.9%, similar expectations are shared by experts World Bank, as well as analysts from other organizations.
“Apparently, the decline in GDP will be about 1%. Next year will be a period of groping for the bottom of the economy, although this does not mean at all that it will be possible to quickly push off from this bottom and go up.", - noted in a comment for BelaPAN senior analyst at forex broker "Alpari" Vadim Iosub.
In his opinion, the continuation of the recession, albeit on a smaller scale than in 2016, next year is a very likely scenario.
« Under the policy of limitation money supply, which is carried out by the National Bank to reduce inflation, the real sector does not show an increase in output. Therefore, there are no grounds to count on economic growth in 2017, and there are no sources for this growth.", - says Vadim Iosub.
Observers therefore expect that difficult times in the economy will continue, and the situation will be somewhat reminiscent of 2016.
“The main expectations are related to the fact that next year we will see a continuation of the chronic recession. The problem is that the bottom that the economy can find is unlikely to be satisfactory in terms of the standard of living of the population., says the economist Sergey Chaly.
At the same time, observers note that under such a scenario, relative economic stability in the country will continue.
"Return to soft monetary policy will not happen in 2017, since such a reversal is fraught with inflation and devaluation”, Vadim Iosub predicts.
Supporters of this scenario also believe that a prolonged recession will not lead to an increase in social discontent, and therefore the authorities will not need to take steps to strengthen their position.
“In 2011, the population became impoverished three times in a matter of months, and that situation did not have serious political consequences. Therefore, they are unlikely to arise next year against the backdrop of the ongoing recession,” suggests Sergei Chaly.
Meanwhile, the authorities themselves recently announced a possible change to the Constitution, and therefore some observers still admit that against the backdrop of chronic problems in the economy, noticeable changes in political life will occur.
What will the Belarusian “wise men” decide?
In October, speaking in Parliament, Alexander Lukashenko announced possible changes to the Constitution in the near future.
« New problems, challenges have appeared, and time, probably, requires something new. And we must start with the main thing, if we decide on this. We need to create a group of wise men, lawyers, who will analyze the Basic Law. And if necessary, we will go for it.- said the Belarusian leader.
The subsequent chronology of events was very interesting. The Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus initiated a constitutional referendum and suggested that the issue of extending the term of presidential office be put up for public discussion.
In turn, the head of the Central Election Commission Lydia Yermoshina said recently BelaPAN, that an increase in the presidential term could "contribute to the stability of society."
So the possibility of announcing and preparing a referendum in 2017 should not be discounted, experts say.
« The economic situation will play a decisive influence on the actions of the authorities. These may be decisions to stimulate the economy, it may be the announcement of a referendum. Next year will most likely go down in history as a period of difficult but important decisions, which, among other things, may affect political system country", - suggests the economist Anton Boltochko.
In addition to extending the presidential term, observers believe that other issues may be put to the referendum.
« It is possible that the bulletins will include the question of the need for economic reforms, so that later the authorities can justify any unpopular measures by this. The referendum may be scheduled, among other things, in order to divert the attention of the electorate from the economic difficulties that the country is experiencing.”, - says the head of the Mises Scientific Research Center Yaroslav Romanchuk.
At the same time, he suggests that preparations for the referendum may coincide in time with the steps taken by the authorities to stimulate the economy. “Negative consequences of such a policy, of course, will be, but they will appear after the referendum”, - predicts Yaroslav Romanchuk.
In turn, other observers note that such a scenario of the development of events cannot be ruled out, but it is very risky for the authorities themselves.
« Opportunities to stimulate the economy, including raising salaries to , exist only through emission, but it will lead to inflation and devaluation, respectively, will reach prohibitive values. Such a scenario of development of events is very risky in terms of consequences.", - says Anton Boltochko.
Therefore, even in the event of a referendum, the economist believes, it is by no means a fact that its preparation will be accompanied by an administrative increase in salaries to the promised $500.
“Over the course of a number of election campaigns in Belarus, there has been a correlation between electoral cycles and growth in incomes of the population. However, in 2015, despite the presidential elections, the authorities did not take this step, and in 2016, when the parliamentary elections were held, salaries were not increased as directed by the top,”- reminded Anton Boltochko.
Thus, as we see, different scenarios for the development of events are possible both in the political life of the country and in the economic one. Which path will the government choose? Probably, the “wise men” who will be entrusted with wooling the Constitution will make proposals for changing it. And whether the authorities will use them depends on the depth of the problems that the economy will face next year.
Economist: Belarus is now like a railway station, but people are standing with empty suitcases
Famous Belarusian economist, the head of the analytical center "Strategy" Leonid Zaiko shared his forecast for the next year
Leonid Fedorovich, the crisis somehow dragged on. Will the 17th year be better or worse than the current one? Will there be light at the end of the tunnel?
Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is a train heading towards you with its bright headlights. And I'm afraid that such a moment can happen. You don't have to wait, you just have to act. This is a well-known position that scientists know: in difficult situations, when people themselves switch to their own problem solving, this is a positive. You can hope for a salary of $500 if you yourself go to a place where at least $500 is received - extracting oil in Russia or working as a waiter in Brussels. The country, especially the younger generation, faces the challenge of how to integrate into this new life. While Belarus reminds me of the station. But people are standing with empty suitcases...
- What to fill them with?
Ambition, education, drive, desire to be the first. In general, I am an optimist. I think that if you act professionally, you can stimulate the development of national business. You just need to donate 118 square kilometers of land to start-up entrepreneurs. Give free use of one square kilometer of land in each district - for business, construction of enterprises, development. This does not require any costs. Just sign the document. More than 150 years ago, the US government did this when deciding how to help develop universities. They just donated land to the universities. And that was enough. We need solutions that would be noticeable, interesting, original. And we have pension management. Pensioners have become leaders of both enterprises and the country. This is dangerous. Reminds me of the times of Brezhnev's stagnation.
Real estate expert: A square meter will fall in price by 7-10%
What will happen to housing, is it worth getting involved in the construction and purchase of an apartment? Forecast on real estate was given by the chairman of the board of the Belarusian Association "Real Estate" Nikolai Prostolupov
Sanctions against Russia are likely to be extended. And, therefore, the economy of the neighboring country will continue to decline. Here we are, together with Russia, until the summer, and we will go down, if we talk about the economy. That is, we will continue the trend to reduce the cost of housing. Until the summer it will be somewhere minus 7-10% of the current price. Then everything will depend on whether the sanctions will be lifted, whether some new economic reform will be announced in Belarus, whether there will be real changes in the economy, production, and monetary policy.
- That is, if now square meter$1100, then by the summer it will be about $950.
Like that. Although now there are such prices in new buildings. There are also $900 dollars.
- It turns out that now it’s better not to get into the construction site and wait at least for spring?
I think there will be developers who still do not want to reduce the price. They are still slacking off. However, new projects will be cheaper, of course, than now. But how many of these new projects will appear is the question. But the fact that you can wait until February is a fact. In February, it will be possible to see how the market behaved. There is a risk that some developers will simply freeze construction until the situation stabilizes.
- Should it be improved now? living conditions? Let's say you sell a one-room apartment, and in 2-3 months you buy a two-room apartment?
If buying new apartment, then there is a sense, since the number of apartments is decreasing - then there will simply be no choice. And if you buy in return, then there is not much difference. Now one-room apartment costs 40 thousand dollars, and a two-room apartment costs 50 thousand dollars. Both the one and the other will fall in price by, say, 10% by the summer. The loss will be about 1 thousand dollars. It is better to pay this thousand now and solve the housing problem.
- Is it profitable to invest in real estate now?
It is beneficial if you buy an apartment on promotions - after all, developers are forced from time to time to announce some promotions, discounts. They are just these same 10% and throw off. In this case, it is a profitable investment.
- Will the secondary market also drop the price?
Yes, it will focus on the primary. The trend will be the same, and approximately in the same proportions: a decrease of 7-10% by the summer.
Personal finance: You don’t have to wait for the coveted “500”, so don’t eat up savings
What to expect from salaries in the coming year? What is the best way to save money, so as not only not to lose, but also to earn? What can you invest in, and what is the best way to save money? Komsomolskaya Pravda addressed these questions to Katerina Bornukova, academic director of the BEROC economic research center.
The most important advice is to realistically assess the current economic situation. If earlier crises passed quickly and salaries grew again, today the situation is different and it is not necessary to wait for the coveted “five hundred” in the near future. Therefore, if possible, do not eat through savings and adjust spending so that you have enough current income. At the same time, do not forget that the last thing to save is on food, education and health.
In what currency is it better to open a deposit if there are savings? Maybe pay attention to bonds? Rates on them are now higher than on deposits.
Traditional advice: if possible, divide deposits between foreign currency and ruble. The risk of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble has greatly decreased, but still remains significant. Speaking of bonds, it should be remembered that their safety, unlike deposits, is not guaranteed by the state. Therefore, you can invest in them only investment savings that you are willing to risk, and not a stash for a rainy day.
- What about loans? They've dropped in price too.
It is worth taking a loan only for those purposes that will increase your income or help reduce expenses: this is education, buying an apartment. Taking a loan because you really want a TV right today, but you don’t have enough money, it’s not worth it. The economic situation remains shaky, and you will have to think about how to repay this loan later.
Political scientist: We are in for a dynamic but nervous year
We talked about possible political events of the next year with political scientist Yury Shevtsov
- What can the world and our country expect in terms of political upheavals in 2017?
Impressive dynamics awaits us. Everything that happened in the past and the year before, and that seemed so changeable - the war in Ukraine, fluctuations Russian ruble, the migration crisis in Europe and so on - all this, I am sure, will seem calm against the backdrop of 2017.
January 20 will be the inauguration of Donald Trump. The new US president will form an administration in February, and I think, as promised, the US will weaken its influence in the world and leave Europe. In May, the President of France will change - there are suggestions that it will be the Republican Francois Fillon. And in the fall, most likely, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will remain in her post for another term. Key EU countries will be headed by people representing fundamentally different interests. This has not happened in Europe for a very long time. It is extremely difficult to say what will happen to Ukraine in connection with all this.
In addition, 2017 is a pre-election year in Russia (the president is elected in 2018, Vladimir Putin has not yet announced his plans to run for a new term. - Ed). This will also add dynamic changes to the year. We need to get used to the fact that stability is over.
- What does Belarus have to do with all these changes in its neighbors?
It concerns us all. We turned out to be a front-line state: both in relation to Ukraine, and in relation to Russia and Europe. So far, the big question is how Poland will behave against the background of changes, in which the situation is already quite unstable - public protests are growing against the initiatives of the ruling Law and Justice party. So the coming year could be quite nerve-wracking politically.
Astrologer: Forget about the crisis until you succeed
Igor Vladimirovich Kiryushin, an astrologer, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, told about what Belarus expects in 2017.
Comparison of the economic data of past years with the country's horoscope allows us to confidently foresee the future. We can say that until the summer of 2017 our economic situation will not noticeably change, and everything will be the same as between previous crises: the Belarusian ruble will fall by an average of 10% per year. However, since the autumn of 2017, serious financial problems will make themselves felt - the ruble exchange rate will begin its sharp fall. It should last until the next spring, 2018, and will be comparable to the crisis of 2015, when the Belarusian currency fell in price by almost 1.8 times. Thus, the exchange rate of the US dollar by the summer of 2018 may be 3.5-4 Belarusian rubles.
A noticeable revival of the real estate market is not expected. Most likely, the cost of housing and land plots will decrease. However, the price of gold will rise. The country will make progress in expanding ties with other countries. One can foresee the success of our diplomacy in the first half of 2017.
Psychologist: Make the next year work for you
Psychologist, specialist in the field of family and relationships Svetlana Yanush spoke about how, despite any unfavorable forecasts, to become happier in the new year
Happiness is a state that must be formed. It consists of three things: order in the head, in one's environment and in the house. The easiest way is to clean up the house, get rid of unnecessary things. They do not just take up space, but interfere with changing your life for the better. Putting order in the material world, we start the same process in our minds.
Second step: think about the kind of people around you. Stop communicating with those who constantly whine and complain in the new year - this will make you happier. When we begin to sympathize with such people and try to save them, we spend a lot of energy on this, and energy is our most important resource, which materializes in the form of money. Money does not like whiners, so your attempts to help such people also deprive you of financial luck. If you can't stop talking (for example, the person complaining is your mom), learn not to get emotionally involved in the complaints.
The third, most difficult step is to put things in order in your head. There are two things that hinder many: regrets about the past and fears about the future. By constantly replaying the events of the past in your head or worrying about what might happen in the future, you again waste energy. Imagine that each person is given 100 units of energy that he can use during the day. And someone, waking up in the morning, will spend 30 of them on memories: it was necessary not to marry him, or vice versa - it was necessary to get married ... And then another 30 will be spent on worrying about the future: no matter what happens ... As a result, there is no there is so much energy, and the person says: I don’t have the strength at all - probably because of the bad weather ... But you need to understand: we have already lived through the past, and the future depends on what we do today.
Of course, everyone is concerned about the issue of money. To improve your financial situation, you need to understand that money loves responsible people - those who can make decisions instead of scolding the government or the boss. Think about how to improve the situation, and if it doesn’t work out, go to specialists who can help you. For example, if you have been wanting to start your own business for a long time, go to the tax office and find out how to do it, or call a person who will support you. Ask yourself: What else can I do to feel happier and more joyful today? Let it be simple things: make delicious tea, chat with friends... A long journey consists of small steps, and it is important to take them.
The end of December is a traditional time for summing up and making plans for the future.
“After celebrating the New Year according to Western custom - January 1 - we will meet the Eastern (Chinese) New Year: it will begin on the "Aquarius" new moon (the Fire Rooster will come into its own on January 28). On March 21 - on the day of the spring equinox - the astrological, or natural New Year will come. These dates with their rhythms have a positive impact on our lives: they are the harbingers of spring. Indeed, after the winter solstice on December 21, daylight hours began to grow, and the sun began to give more and more light and heat. In March 2017, a new 36-year cycle begins, which means that in the coming year we will see the emergence of new trends in the economy, politics, technology, and consumer priorities. Time for a change - that's what to expect. Time to "catch" new wave difficult, but those who can do it will feel the taste of victory,” she said. Galina GAYDUK, astrologer of the AstroGEO laboratory of the Avestan School of Astrology.
WORLD EVENTS
Let's start with the most important astronomical events that will set the tone for the main rhythms of the year. These include four eclipses: two solar and two lunar. They will occur in pairs - February 11 and 26, August 7 and 21 with a certain sequence: first - a lunar eclipse, and then - a solar one. Please note that for one month before and after the eclipse, there is a zone of both geoclimatic and geopolitical instability. An example is the earthquake in Italy on August 24, 2016 and a number of subsequent seismic disturbances. Recall that long-distance travel is not recommended at this time, especially to seismically active zones. During this period, there is an increase in the number of man-made disasters and more frequent cases of inadequate behavior of people with a mobile psyche. Observations show that for people born on dates shortly before or after which eclipses occur, the year can be busy, but not necessarily negative. This is especially true for those born in 1941, 1960, 1979 and 1998 under the signs of Aquarius and Leo, as well as Scorpio and Taurus. During the period of eclipses, the likelihood of cardiovascular diseases and strokes increases. Although these tendencies are strictly individual, try not to overexert yourself during this period.
ECONOMIC TRENDS
Countries with economies oriented towards the domestic market will be in the most advantageous position. World currencies will be in a fever. Warning signs will appear from March to May, but this is only a harbinger of the coming systemic crisis. The eurozone is at particular risk. In August-September, events in the United States may develop according to an unexpected scenario: the August eclipses resonate with geographic location country and the horoscope of the new president. The most difficult period is the end of next year. Periods of currency fevers are possible before or shortly after February 6, March 4-15, June 9 and December. It is unreasonable to spend money on things of expensive brands, it is more expedient to take care of a practical and rational investment of finances. Do not forget to replenish food supplies: the harvest year will not be everywhere. Strengthening the borders is another important task that should not be neglected. The ability to trade by barter will come in handy. The main thing is prosperity in the country, and not only money. Sharp turns can play a cruel joke: the weakest will become the strongest and vice versa.
GEOCLIMAT AND GEOPOLITICS
February, April, July, August, December will be problematic months of the coming year in geoclimatic terms. The calmest months are May, June, October, November. It is important to note that policies depend on general trends in the economy and climate. Geopolitical instability is expected in February, March, April, July, August, December. May, June, November will be relatively calm.
The regions of tension in the first half of the aura of the February eclipses will be Central and South America, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Australia, the Caucasus, etc. And in the second half - Central and North America, the Arabian Peninsula, Turkey, Central Russia, the Caucasus, Krasnodar Territory, Crimea, Ukraine, Malaysia, China, Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, etc.
August eclipses will determine stress zones: in the first half - South and North America, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, North and Western Europe, Siberia, etc.; in the second half - Central and South America, Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, Algeria, Libya, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Mongolia, etc.
According to other indicators, significant events can occur in the following places: in North America, Alaska, the Pacific Ocean, the European part of Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Spain, Italy, Egypt, Iraq, Thailand, Mexico, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Serbia, Canada, Ethiopia.
There is still a possibility of major earthquakes in the United States, in the waters of the Black and Mediterranean Seas, the echoes of which can reach Belarus. Unfavorable resonant dates, before and after which geoclimatic revolutions and man-made accidents can occur: January 1, March 3 and 30, April 6-10, 20, 28 April, May 3, 25, June 9, July 1, 3-4, 13, August 25, September 9, 16, 28, November 22, December 3-4, 19, 23.
According to the AstroGEO laboratory of the Avestan school of astrology, general trends will affect Belarus to one degree or another.
Considering the astrological chart of the President of Belarus for 2017, astrologer Svetlana Dragan drew attention to the extraordinary properties of his personality - super-responsibility, thrift, commitment to history, but at the same time, a pronounced independence, which sometimes has a paradoxical character.
“Now our leaders personify historical processes, and here their astrological charts are in some kind of contradiction. As for Alexander Lukashenko, everything in his chart looks like some kind of serious internal metamorphosis. On February 26, we will have a solar eclipse, and this is always a complete radical reversal as internal and external positions," Dragan said.
The astrologer suggested that at the end of February the Belarusian leader could surprise everyone internal transformation and changing political opinions. The same trend will continue in March 2017.
"Somewhere around March 13, there is a possibility of some drastic steps, which in their consequences can quite boldly transform financial and legal relations both within the state and in foreign policy. The period around April 8 will be added to this. And all this will give out a new, extraordinary economic direction in a common chord," the astrologer said.
Dragan noted that Uranus has the strongest influence in the astrological chart of the Belarusian leader for 2017. This revolutionary turning point, which always carries with it unpredictable steps. At the same time, a constructive position is visible in the map of the Russian leader, which does not exclude difficulties, tension and losses during 2017.
“The leader of Russia is forced to preserve his interests. And it may seem to the leader of Belarus that this is a kind of militaristic position. Therefore, the steps that will continue to be taken in Belarus will be more directed towards the West,” the astrologer noted.
The astrologer called the most difficult period of the year June, this month the partner mood of Belarus may be oriented towards Western countries.
"Here is the possibility of some alliances, economic, economic, political. Most likely, Belarus will move in this direction, and move quite actively," the astrologer said.
Listen to a conversation with the popular Russian astrologer Svetlana Dragan about the immediate fate of Belarusian-Russian relations and possible changes in the political moods of Lukashenka and Putin on Sputnik Belarus radio.
The past 2017 was a mixed year for the Belarusian economy. On the one hand, after a two-year fall, there was an increase of 2% of GDP, the refinancing rate National Bank Republic of Belarus fell to 11% per annum (one of the lowest rates in history). Also in 2017, there was a significant increase in wages in most sectors of the economy, and deflation was observed in trade.
However, the most serious plans of the Belarusian government did not come true: average salary did not reach 1000 rubles, the real liberalization of the economy did not begin. Let's look at these and other questions in more detail.
Banking sector
The refinancing rate of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus for 2017 decreased 8 times and reached 11% per annum on October 18. This rate was lower only in 2007 (10%) and in 2010 (10.5%). The history of the National Center of the Republic of Belarus shows that since 1995 the refinancing rate tends to decrease precisely at the end of each year. At the beginning of the year, on the contrary, to growth.
photo: ria.ru
Interest rates on loans have fallen to historic lows. Lowest average interest rate for loans in Belarusian rubles for individuals in the history of Belarus was recorded in August 2006 at the level of 11.3% per annum. In the fall of 2017, steel loans cost "only" 11.6% per annum.
Economic growth
In the first two months of the year, Belarus' GDP fell by 1%. Then his growth began. GDP growth for the year is expected at the level of 2-2.2%, which is in line with the government's forecast. Traditionally, industrial production and agriculture provided most of the growth.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the GDP of Belarus in 2017 should have decreased by 0.8%. The World Bank predicted a 0.4% decline in the real gross domestic product of Belarus at the beginning of the year. The Eurasian Development Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development spoke of a possible fall of 0.5%.
According to Belstat, the volume of industrial production in January-October 2017 increased by 6.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. The trend towards accelerating industrial production growth continues in the republic. Its growth for 9 months was 6.1%.
photo: belta.by
According to the results of 10 months of the year, in 11 out of 13 branches of the manufacturing industry in Belarus, the volume of industrial production exceeded the corresponding level of 2016.
The largest increase was observed in the production of machinery and equipment, the production of wood and paper products.
Inflation in Belarus
At the end of 2016, inflation in the republic reached 10.6% (against the forecast of 12%). In 2017, inflation slowed down significantly. In July-August, a unique economic phenomenon for Belarus was observed - deflation (by 0.1% and 0.8%, respectively). At the end of the year, inflation was about 5%, which puts the Republic of Belarus in 11-13th place in the world.
Average salaries
The plans of the President of Belarus and the government to increase the average salary to 1,000 BYR by the end of 2017 were not destined to come true. The authorities tried to directively raise wages in the republic.
Medium wage in Belarus in December 2016 was 801 BYN (23,300 RUB). Already in the spring of 2017, its growth began:
March - 770 BYN (22,561 RUB);
April - 776 BYN (22,737 RUB);
May - 795 BYN (23,294 RUB);
June - 819 BYN (27,000 RUB);
July - 827 BYN (24,231 RUB);
August - 844 BYN (24,730 RUB);
September - 831 BYN (24,298 RUB);
October - 841 BYN (24,591 RUB).
*It is necessary to take into account the difference in the exchange rate of the Belarusian and Russian rubles in each month
** Official data on salaries in November and December is not yet available.
Although there are no data for November and December yet, as we can see, the administrative resource for the growth of average wages ended in August.
Moreover, the Minister of Labor and Social Protection of Belarus, Irina Kostevich, said in the House of Representatives when discussing a package of budget bills:
“The average annual salary in Belarus next year, depending on the scenario of economic development, will be 921-941 rubles,” the minister said.
However, Irina Kostevich noticed that in real sector the average salary will exceed 1,000 rubles, recalling that the salary of state employees is 80% of the salaries of the real sector.
"Liberalization" of the Belarusian economy
In 2017, another and unprecedented attempt was made to liberalize economic activity in the republic. Read more about this in our.
In the middle of summer 2017, most of the Belarusian media picked up the trend for news about the planned liberalization of taxation, business and the private sector. The head of state signed a series of documents that should "liberate" business in the republic. In September, 3 decrees were adopted at once on the liberalization of economic activity.
On December 22, Alexander Grigorievich signed the most progressive decree of 2017 - "On the development of the digital economy." And Belarus became the first country in the world to legalize blockchain. Whether these decrees will be implemented, time will tell.
The experience of previous years shows that most of the progressive undertakings remain only on paper and are not embodied in the current Belarusian reality.
Expert opinions on the results of 2017
Irina Tochitskaya, Scientific Director of the IPM Research Center:
“The positive results of 2017, in my opinion, are associated with the activities of the National Bank, which, thanks to a tight monetary policy, managed to reduce inflation to a historic low.
… a threat to stability is the boom in consumer lending in 2017. Undoubtedly, this trend will lead to an increase in consumer imports. All this worries, since such a development of events is fraught with a weakening of the exchange rate and bears the risks of accelerating inflation.”
Alexander Shvets, Chairman of the Belarusian Scientific and Industrial Association:
“To tell the truth, the recovery of the Belarusian economy in the outgoing year is largely due to a favorable external environment. At the same time, internal structural changes that would increase the potential national economy we hardly saw.
Another long-standing unresolved issue is the uneven playing field between private and public companies. This is very clearly seen in the example of the insurance sector, where state-owned companies have obvious preferences.
Unfortunately, the business community did not see positive changes on these issues in the outgoing year and hopes that they will still occur in 2018.”
Katerina Bornukova, Academic Director of the Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center (BEROC):
“Reforms do not appear to the authorities as an urgent task, and this suggests that next year we will not see any serious changes in the direction of reforming the public sector. This approach is fraught with the fact that the slow pace economic growth become chronic for the country.
Kirill Gaiduk, World Bank Country Economist for Belarus:
“The key positive results of the outgoing year are known - the reduction of inflation to its minimum values, the exit from the recession and the restoration of economic growth. At the same time, there are fears that it will be slow.”
Zhanna Tarasevich, Director and Co-Chairman of the Business Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers. Kunyavsky:
“In Belarus, two thirds of business entities operate at a loss, with zero or low (up to 5%) profitability. Such financial results do not allow the development of either enterprises or the economy as a whole. Therefore, we hoped that in 2017 measures would be taken to reduce the fiscal burden on enterprises. Unfortunately, it did not happen".
Daniel Krutzinna, CIS Managing Partner of the international consulting company Civitta:
“The main economic successes of the year are obvious to everyone - the exit from the recession, the decline in inflation, the stability of the exchange rate. We also saw a slight decrease in the share of bad debts in the banking sector - all of the above points can be attributed to the positive results of the year.
The main personal disappointment of the year concerns asset management. In Belarus on state level the belief remains that the current system of public sector management is effective, and the state can manage property as effectively as a private owner.
Valery Polkhovsky, Senior Analyst at Forex Club:
“In 2017, the concept of “crisis” began to leave the word turnover of people, and this is certainly a sign of improvement economic situation in the country.
Rising oil prices, recovery Russian economy allowed Belarus to emerge from recession in the past year.
I would like to hope that the IT Decree, which is planned to be adopted by the end of 2017, will allow creating new growth points for the national economy.”