Due to numerous requests from traders.
Hello, friends! Today we will talk about one of the ways to find out what positions are occupied by large speculators and investment funds... After all, as you know, the Forex market is driven by money. Namely, big money. More precisely, we will focus on the analysis of COT (Commitments of Traders) reports provided by the CFTC (US. Commodity Futures Trading Commission). From the material below you will learn: what kind of reports are, when and where to get them, and most importantly, how they can help us in trading.
COT reports
From these reports, we can find out what position the major forex players are currently in. And, using this data, make more informed decisions about your own entries and deals to analyze the current trading situation in the market.
So why do we need major player movements? The point is that the market is driven by money. And they are driven by big money. Naturally, we won't change anything with a lot of, say, 0.1. But the big players: large traders, investment funds, banks, etc., pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into the market, cause significant movements. And going against such a force is often unwise. Therefore, it may be useful for us to know which side of the market the "big" is.
How to find out the positions of major players?
One way is through the COT reports provided by the U.S. CFTC.
U.S. The CFTC is an organization that ensures that there are no delinquencies in trading in the futures market. And all major players in the futures market report to this organization. In turn, this commission publishes reports called "Commitments of Traders" for free access. We can just go to their website and view these reports without any hindrance. This is free information in the public domain. Naturally, these reports are from the futures market. And the futures market is not all the players on foreign exchange market... But even from this data, we can draw quite meaningful conclusions.
How do we access these reports?
NON-COMMERCIAL are large speculators. That is, banks or investment funds. As well as individuals with large capitals. Here you can see the number of long and short positions as well as spreads.
Spreads are opposite positions opened by the same player. For example, to buy and sell at the same time. Perhaps this is part of some complex strategy, as futures have different expiration dates. Perhaps something else. We are not particularly interested in this. But such data is provided.
COMMERCIAL is hedger data. Data on commercial representatives on the market who do not trade in order to somehow speculatively earn money, but in their own interests. That is, some big companies.
For example, it is unprofitable for a company to increase prices for any raw materials that are required for the production of their product. And they, accordingly, buy up raw materials or currency in advance, so that in case the price rises, they have a supply for their goods and not overpay. Simply put, commercial players do not gamble in the market in order to profit from price changes, but act in their own interests.
In order to get into this category, you need to submit a special application to the Futures Markets Commission. And only after that they will be able to accept you. But recently, not only large companies fit into this category. commercial organizations but also, for example, swap dealers in banks.
TOTAL is the sum of long and short positions of major players and commercial hedgers. For each position, there is a division into Long and Short, that is, into the number of long and short ones. There is a lot of information in this report that we don't need. There are various products and goods here. We're interested in currencies, so you need to scroll down to currencies.
We also have CHANGES FROM data.
Simply put, open interest is the amount of money in the market.
How to use the data from the COT report?
In principle, you can study the data directly from the report, but our website has a tool that presents figures as indicators for each individual currency pair.
It is located at the link:
Figures from the CFTC Bulletin are spread across three charts below currency pair... You can select a specific instrument in the settings windows located above the chart.
The number of pairs (8 positions) corresponds to the list of currency futures on the CME exchange. The other two settings windows are technical indicators and options for presenting the type of quotes: candles, bars, etc.
COT tools are based on the TradingView service, which allows you to use standard chart settings or remove some of the indicators.
Commercial players, as well as dealers acting as market makers and opening positions opposite to clients, are going against the trend. And, as a rule, they start some kind of active action against the trend. And often a little before that the moment the trend manifests itself.
Factors that are not available ordinary people, but are known to hedgers, encourage them to take any action in advance. For example, buying a pound futures. And, thereby, protect your business from financial risks... Here's a pretty good example of the Canadian dollar.
We had a long downward trend. At this point, the hedgers (Commercials) were in the overbought zone of the COT index. Almost all the time the trend was down. And as soon as the trend started to grow up, accordingly, the COT index for hedgers (Commercials) began to creep down. They go against the trend for their own benefit. And they start going against the trend often in advance.
In our example with the pound, you can see that the hedger positions are growing now. This means that you need to expect the pound to move down. As for large traders or speculators, as a rule, they go along with the market, as they make up a considerable part of it.
How to analyze all this?
It is worth paying attention to the situation as a whole. That is, to watch for hedgers (Commercials) and large speculators (Large Speculations), as well as for small speculators. First of all, I want to warn you that using the COT index as a separate system is wrong.
If we proceed only from the COT reports, then you are unlikely to be able to trade profitably based solely on this information. It happens that the signals are false, and you have to trade on weekly charts. It takes a lot of training and experience to recognize this. Plus the time factor. You will have to hold the position for a very long time and use huge stop losses.
Therefore, I advise you to use COT reports as a filter for your system. That is, assess the situation using technical analysis, and check transactions and general state of the market according to COT reports. In this case, you need to use all the information, not just any separate group of traders. And also pay attention to open interest, that is, how much the market is warmed up.
Open Interest is at the bottom of the chart in the form of a histogram. Let me remind you that OpenInterest is the amount of money in the market. Let's look at an example of what was happening in the market. I would like to draw your attention to the points where open interest is in emergency situations. That is, it is either very low or high.
How high and how low we can determine only by looking at the graph as a whole. At these points, we pay attention to what the other groups of speculators are doing. Namely, large hedgers (Commercials) and small players (Small Speculations).
As you can see from the picture above, a low Open Interest is similar to a flat, the lack of liquidity does not allow any of the participants registered in the COT to gain large positions in the euro.
Further, the graph shows that the situation of low volumes in futures and options was “the calm before the storm”. The Brexit referendum, the US elections, the reversal of the Fed's policy caused strong movements in Forex, which resulted in active trends and growing liquidity.
A critically high open interest means the market is overheated. The hedger positions (Commercials) are at the bottom. Positions of large (Large Speculations) and small traders (Small Speculations) at the peak of purchases. What could happen here? Petty speculators can easily be put under the knife. Large speculators are likely to take profits by selling their positions to small speculators who will willingly buy them. There is too much money, the potential for growth, at the moment, is exhausted.
The fall of the euro is not long in coming: small speculators, as always, did not guess the movement, large players and hedgers “exchange” volumes, the indicator curves move towards each other, some positions go into the cash, which is reflected in the fall of Open Interest.
Positions of hedgers (Commercials) and speculators (Large Speculations) can also be used as overbought or oversold signals. The minimum and maximum values of the accumulated futures volumes often coincide with an abnormal rise or fall of Open Interest.
As you can see from the figure below, they accurately predict reversals (reversals) in the rate of a currency pair.
The main thing is to remember the rule: Large Speculations always build up long positions along the trend of the pair rate. Hedgers always go against the trend. Small traders are almost always victims - they are often wrong, but the indicator curve must trade against the crowd in a system, so sometimes they can be quite useful. That's all.
Conclusion
Do not forget that you need to use COT reports only as an additional indicator of your system, which can be checked once a week before the market opens. Do not trade exclusively on COT reports, as it is, to put it mildly, very difficult and unreliable.
Thank you for your attention. Until next time!
The Frankfurt Stock Exchange is the largest in Germany and one of the world's largest stock exchanges. There are about 73 companies listed on the FWB.
Working hours
The trading session opens at 11:00 and ends at 22:00 Moscow time.
Indexes
DAX is the most important stock index in Germany. The index is calculated as the average capitalization-weighted value of the share prices of the largest joint-stock companies in Germany (while the capitalization is calculated only on the basis of free-floating shares). The index also takes into account dividend earnings on stocks, assuming that dividends are reinvested in stocks. Thus, the index reflects the total return on capital.
After the completion of trading on the exchange, the L-DAX (Late DAX) index is already calculated, which is an indicator of the development of the DAX index after the close of the exchange.
Bargaining
Today, the operator of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange is the Deutsche Borse Group, an organization with a public law activity that allows the most optimal way to organize the course of trading.
The German structure Deutsche Borse includes a stock exchange of the same name, an electronic trading system Xetra, the largest European clearing organization Clearstream (serves sellers and buyers of securities from more than 110 countries of the world), market information provider Market News International, Eurex Group (main business - organization of derivatives trading and related services), etc.
Capitalization of Deutsche Borse is about 8 billion euros, profit in 2011 - about 950 million euros.
The exchange itself is the operator of the Xetra system, which is known as one of the most liquid electronic trading systems in the global cash transactions market, which employs more than 650 participants.
Exchange history
The history of the exchange dates back to the adoption by traders in 1585 of uniform exchange rates in Frankfurt am Main, which by that time had already become a major European trading city.
Leading position Frankfurt Stock Exchange has been in Germany since 1949. In the late 1980s, Deutsche Borse merged several German exchanges under its wing, including the Frankfurt one.
In 1988, the DAX index was presented to the public, which was a list of 30 leading German blue-chip companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. This list includes such world leaders in their industries as Siemens, Adidas, BMW, Volkswagen Group, Bayer, Metro, Henkel. The site is operated by Deutsche Boerse Group AG. Under the control of the Deutsche Boerse Group, created on its basis, it was transferred in 1993.
(Frankfurt Stock Exchange, or FSE) is one of the oldest exchanges in Germany and the largest trading platform securities worldwide. FSE is included in the German concern Deutsche Borse Group- an influential exchange company that provides various financial services related to trading activities.
The content of the article:
Transactions on the Deutsche Borse Group exchange trading account for about 70% of all German securities trading activities.
Opening hours: daily from 09-00 to 17-30 (Moscow time), except weekends and holidays.
Features and Benefits of the FSE Stock Exchange
The Frankfurt Stock Exchange trades in assets such as:
- currency;
- products;
- bonds;
- foundations;
- securities;
- warranty obligations and certificates.
Independent experts point out several main advantages of the exchange. Integration is carried out in a vertical structure, that is, the entire list of services and systems required on the exchange is easily accessible to any investor. It is on the German Stock Exchange that one of the highest indicators in terms of profit, revenue and capitalization in Europe. All operations on the exchange take place in the electronic trading system Xetra - more than 650 clients of the exchange work in it, including about 5 thousand traders and 270 banks from all over the world.
History of development and formation of FSE
According to German sources, the history of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange dates back to 1150. That year, in the fall, the very first trade fair was held on the Rhine. Since then, similar product fairs have been held annually once a year.
In 1330, Ludwig of Bavaria, noticing the great popularity of the fairs held, introduced another fair - the spring one. This was great news for both agricultural producers and buyers. Soon, fish began to be brought to the fair, thereby further increasing the profitability of the site.
The popularity of the fairgrounds grew, attracting more and more new sellers. Then there were problems with making payments - each region in Europe had its own currency and there was a lot of confusion when transferring currency, and fraudsters began to appear. To facilitate the work with currency exchange, an exchange exchange is created.
And in 1585, a meeting of merchants from all regions of Europe took place in Frankfurt. At this meeting, in order to prevent fraudulent trading and facilitate exchange transactions, a single exchange rate was established. Almost immediately, bills traders and speculators appear with this.
History year after year or the most important dates for the exchange
- The official leaflet with exchange rate differences was first published in 1625 and consisted of 12 currencies.
- In the 18th century, the exchange begins to carry out transactions with government bonds.
- The periods after the First and Second World War do not affect the stock exchange in the best way - the price of shares falls, there is a huge capital outflow.
- 1953 in the history of the stock exchange marks the beginning of the era of recovery and dawn. The exchange is actively starting to trade in monetary units of Switzerland, USA, Canada and currencies of other countries.
- In 1957, work on the restoration of the trading floor was completed, and the exchange began its full-scale operation.
- In 1969 in the building of the stock exchange, an automated computer system BOGA, designed to carry out trading operations.
- In 1993, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange became part of the largest holding company Deutche Borse AG.
- In 2002 ... 2004, negotiations are underway to merge the Frankfurt and London stock exchanges. The merger of the two major trading floors in Europe would create the most powerful stock market in the world. Nevertheless, the deal was not destined to take place - the initiator of the venture, CEO of Deutche Borse AG, Werner Seifert left his post.
Stock indices of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange
The main and most important index on the German stock exchange is - DAX(Deutscher Aktienindex). It is calculated based on the value of shares of the 30 most liquid and reliable German companies trading on the stock exchange. The DAX is calculated based on the price of the most popular and traded stocks over the past three years. The exchange specialists constantly check the companies whose shares are taken into account in the DAX calculation and periodically update this list.
The change in the composition of the DAX clearly demonstrates any changes in the country's economy. For example, the first DAX consisted of five German banks, but now there are only two left - Commerzbank and DeutscheBank.
The basis of the German index is now formed by representatives of the chemical and automotive industries, since these areas are the main ones for the German economy. The index includes the following companies:
- BMW;
- Bayer;
- Volkswagen;
- Henkel;
- Continental;
- Daimler;
- BASF;
- Merck;
- K + S;
- Beiersdorf;
- Siemens;
- Lufthansa.
In addition to the DAX index, there are many highly specialized, "linked" indices in Germany, to which less attention is riveted than to the main one;
- HDAX;
- TecDAX;
- CDAX;
- SDAX.
The second most important index is EuroStoxx50- a kind of indicator of the economic situation in the European Union. The index is simultaneously calculated in five currencies.
Brokers with access to the Frankfurt Stock Exchange
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About promotions and listing
The shares of the leading companies on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange are popular all over the world. They fully comply with all the stringent conditions that are required to participate in the listing.
The first requirement for getting into the listing is that the applicant company must be in the market segment where the issuers are located, which are as transparent as possible in their work ( Prime Standard). The second condition is that at least 10% of the shares must be in free float. Third, the head office of the company should be located in Germany.
The turnover of any company is constantly changing. This is due to the activity of demand for a particular share. The most stable four in this regard are the following companies:
- The first place belongs to the largest concern BASF Societas Europaea... It includes 160 subsidiaries, produces 7 thousand products, including chemical and thermal food coatings, synthetic rubber, pharmaceutical and chemical preparations, solutions for reducing automobile emissions.
- Next comes the German Insurance Company Allianz SE... Now it is a huge concern offering insurance protection services for clients all over the world.
- DeutscheBank AG- Bank of Germany. The client base has over 13 million clients. The bank provides asset management services, is engaged in investment and commercial activities.
- Company Bayer A, engaged in pharmaceuticals and chemistry - develops drugs.
It should be noted that about half of the FSE listed companies are foreign. Therefore, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange can be considered international.
A foreign company wishing to be listed must demonstrate financial reporting on its financial position and meet all FSE requirements to be listed.
The listing of the exchange has more than 1000 companies with a total capitalization of more than 2 trillion. US dollars. Into the corporation Borse AG includes not only trading platforms, but also clearing companies, trading centers, banking institutions and official brokers.
Unique trading system Xetra
In 1997, the FSE enters into action electronic system bidding Xetra(Exchange Electronic Trading). Due to its simplicity, coupled with high reliability, the system quickly gained respect among traders, since it is very convenient to work in the system, and any operation can be performed from anywhere in the world.
More than 20 sites in Europe are connected to Xetra, including the all-German Deutsche Borse AG, Frankfurt, Swiss SIX Swiss Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange and Eurex.
Xetra has a set of more than 2.5 thousand different kinds of comfortable trading instruments Investment funds, ETFs, ETSc commodity indices, ETNc debt obligations and many others. The brokers of the company, with the introduction of Xetra into operation, began to perform the functions of market makers.
The electronic system allows participants to trade in various securities. However, the functions of the unique platform are not limited on this - it also allows you to trade in raw materials, goods, purchase or sell electricity contracts.
The system constantly generates a set of data on the sale and purchase in the so-called general order book. When a suitable counter order arrives, the system itself executes it. Thus, Xetra is able to bring the turnover to the highest level. Even if operations are performed with securities with a low liquidity indicator, the transaction processes will be effective in any case.
Talking about the very software, it should be noted that it has a modular structure and can increase and expand its functionality with the inclusion of additional functions.
For the convenience of traders, there are various options for accessing the system. As a rule, leased lines and the Internet are used for these purposes.
Thanks to Xetra, the process of trading securities will be under constant control, and any operation will be monitored in real time by trading participants. In the event of a change or deviation from the established rules, the Xetra toolkit will notify about this by giving an appropriate signal.
The term "Вorse" is translated from German as " stock exchange". This word meant periodic meetings of wealthy merchants from Italy on the Buerse town square in the Belgian city of Bruges, which was named after the Van der Bursa family (from Latin “ Bursa"- purse, bag), who once lived in the city.
An interesting fact of mutually beneficial cooperation
Telegraphen-Bauanstalt Siemens & Halske Corporation, hereinafter known as Siemens ( whose shares are still in the DAX index today), was discovered by a German businessman and his partner Johannes Halske in 1847. Its activity was based on electronic telegraphy and developments in the field of exact sciences - optics and mechanics. Siemens became the first company that was able to enter the Russian market with its offer in the field of telecommunication technologies. The first order for the Russian government was for 75 telegraphs from Siemens und Halske in 1851. This marked the beginning of a long and warm relationship between Siemens and Russia.
Unlucky contributor
In 1998, in the Russian branch of DeutschBank Russia, Jochen Vermuth was appointed Director of Investment Management for World Markets. Not having worked even six months, Jochen was removed from his post. The reason for the dismissal was that, without the consent of the management, he invested the bank's funds in one of the Russian GKOs. As reported later in the press service of the bank, the profit of Deutsche Bank during the work of Vermouth fell by 83%.
Final points
Today the German stock exchange provides about 90% of financial transactions carried out in Germany, as well as controls 30% of the European market. More than 51% of the total income of the LSE exchange comes only from trading. The volume of trade turnover is 1459 billion euros.
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One of the oldest and most distinctive stock exchanges on the planet, it continues to struggle for leading positions in both the European and world markets.
History of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange
1585 was a landmark year for the regularly held Frankfurt Fair: in order to avoid depreciation of money from many different trading countries, merchants agreed to exchange currencies. The appearance of such a regulator was very effectively reflected in the further fate of the fair, which has already begun to resemble the prototype of the modern one. Transactions with bills of exchange and goods carried out on it were carried out at first in the open air, near the building of the city administration, but soon the merchants moved into the premises. For this reason, in order to collect payments from visitors, an exchange administrative body appeared, consisting of merchant deputies, and, therefore, exchange in frankfurt acquired its own organized structure.
Frankfurt Stock Exchange by the beginning of the twentieth century, it was considered one of the most advanced exchanges in Europe. It traded bills of exchange, bonds and government loans, and also the official exchange rate appeared, which brought together disparate individual brokers. However, the lack of attention to the new stock instrument - stocks, together with the outbreak of the First World War, dealt a severe blow to the recent successful institution, sending it into significant oblivion. The revival of Phoenix from the financial ashes took place already in the 50s. XX century.
DAX Index
In the late 1980s, a new player on stock market, Deutsche Borse, united several German exchanges under its wing, including the Frankfurt (FWB). In 1988, the general public was presented DAX index, which was a list of 30 leading German blue-chip companies trading on Frankfurt Stock Exchange... This list includes such world leaders in their industries as Siemens (IT-technologies), Adidas (sportswear and footwear), BMW, Volkswagen Group (automotive), Bayer (pharmaceuticals), Metro (retail), Henkel (household chemicals ). Due to the leading positions of these companies in the international market DAX index is one of the most important in the global market.
Frankfurt in a race with London
At the moment, in terms of the turnover of transactions with shares, it ranks second in Europe, behind its main hated competitor - the London Stock Exchange. To reach the first position, the German leadership took many steps, such as negotiations on a possible merger with Euronext or the Russian MICEX exchanges and directly tried to buy the main enemy, but the deal with Londoners failed. One of the significant advantages Frankfurt Stock Exchange are: high transparency of trading rules in the market and a large number of financial instruments.
It will not be superfluous to mention what exactly is on Frankfurt Stock Exchange e in the eighteenth century began his first steps in trade Mayer Amschel Rothschild, who soon became a powerful banker and transferred his influence to his sons, the activities of whose descendants still have a wide public response.
Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse, FWB)- one of the largest trading platforms in the world, and also largest and oldest exchange Germany... It is part of the Deutsche Börse Group - a huge stock exchange organization that is a joint stock company and provides a full range of financial products and services.
The roots of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange go back to the period of medieval fairs. In the XXI century, autumn fairs were held annually, since 1330 spring fairs were also held, which attracted a large number of merchants from various European countries. The main difficulty was making payments, since its monetary unit had not only large kingdoms, but also small holdings. The situation changed in 1585 when all merchants met to establish uniform exchange rates. It is this event that is considered as the moment of birth of the modern Frankfurt Stock Exchange. And soon after that, intermediaries with bills of exchange, that is, with documentary debt obligations, also joined in foreign exchange transactions. The first official exchange rate sheet dates from 1625 and contained twelve currencies. At the end of the 18th century, trading in government bonds began on the stock exchange, and in 1779 the first promissory notes were placed, which anyone could redeem.
The next significant stage in the development of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange began after the Second World War, when, after the close of the exchange in early 1945, it resumed its work six months later. To reanimate the post-war economy in 1948, monetary reform, which helped the exchange restore its former value. In 1956, FWB entered the world market and became the leading trading platform in West Germany. The end of the twentieth century was a period of reforms and innovations: in the early 1990s, the German Stock Exchange was formed (Deutsche Börse), which included the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and other major German stock exchange companies. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange has largely retained its independent character in carrying out its own activities and policies.
____________
The German word "Börse" (translated as "exchange") came from the 15th century, from the Belgian city of Bruges. This term described the regular meetings of wealthy Italian merchants in the Buerse square,
whose name comes from the surname of the aristocratic Van der Bursa family (Latin Bursa = "bag" or "purse") living in this city.
_____________
In 1997, the exchange launched its own electronic trading system Xetra®. The first trading day took place on November 28. In the same year, the Deutsche Börse Group opens its first foreign offices in London and Chicago. Also during this period, the Neuer Markt market was introduced for the first time, providing an opportunity to place capital for young small companies.
Since January 2003, a new market segmentation system has been introduced at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. A public offering (IPO) in an EU regulated market segment can be either General Standard or Prime Standard. In Europe, there are two options for entering capital markets: entering markets regulated by the EU (Official Markets) and entering markets directly regulated by stock exchanges (Informal Regulated Markets).
Prime Standard companies meet very strict international standards transparency, while the General Standard, on the contrary, applies minimum statutory requirements for Official Markets. As a result, the Neuer Markt segment was no longer needed and was closed. In October 2005, the Entry Standard was introduced as a new segment in the Unofficially regulated market, which allowed small and medium-sized companies to quickly enter into trading, without complicated formal obligations.
Today the exchange occupies a leading position in Europe and is one of the world's largest exchanges. Specialists highlight a number of key advantages:
The world's best indicators of revenue, profit and market capitalization;
The vertical principle of integration, i.e. all types of systems and services required by listed companies and investors are available;
The operator of the Xetra® system is an electronic trading system, the first in Europe in terms of liquidity, with over 650 participants, including 270 international banks and 4500 traders;
Operator of the Eurex® system, the world's largest derivatives market.
Eurex® was formed in June 1998 and is one of Deutsche's most successful projects. Eurex® operates in Europe, Asia and the United States and offers a diversified portfolio of contracts covering various asset classes as well as the most actively traded futures and options.
DAX Index- the most important stock index in Germany. It was first calculated by Deutsche Börse AG on July 1, 1988.
Calculated as the capitalization-weighted average of the share prices of the 30 largest and most liquid German companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in the PrimeStandard segment. The index also takes into account dividend earnings on stocks, assuming that dividends are reinvested in stocks. Thus, the index reflects the total return on capital.
The DAX calculation includes the most traded stocks based on statistics for the last three years. A special commission regularly checks and updates this list. The changing composition of the index clearly demonstrates changes in the German economy, and in the European economy as well. So, if in the first DAX there were five banks, now there are only two of them - Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. After the German trade group Metro was excluded from the index in 2012, not a single representative of the wholesale and retail sector remained. On the contrary, the two fundamental sectors of the German economy - the automotive industry and the chemical-pharmaceutical industry - are widely represented by Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, Continental, as well as BASF, Bayer, Beiersdorf, Henkel, K + S, Merck. There are many long-livers in the index among joint stock companies, in particular: the insurer Allianz, the Siemens and Thyssen Krupp concerns, the energy company RWE, the air carrier Lufthansa.