What fertility. Birth rate in Russia

The Russian space itself is so large and diverse, and the population, infrastructure and production, it would seem, are "smeared" over it so unevenly that demographic differences should be extremely striking. However, the demographic “gaps” between the regions with the best and worst indicators of economic and social life are still less pronounced than one might expect.

The gradual implementation and completion of the demographic transition in Russia (a situation where there is a decrease in fertility and mortality and simple reproduction begins) mitigates regional differences in population reproduction. They were maximal in the 1960s-1970s, when some territories had already switched to the one-two-year-old family model (Central Russia, North-West), while others, as a rule, less urbanized, traditionally agrarian, still existed from four families with five children (republics of the North Caucasus, southern Siberia).

Now the highest birth rates are typical for Altai and Tyva, a number of North Caucasian republics (Ingushetia, Dagestan, Kalmykia, Chechnya), autonomous regions of Siberia (Ust-Ordynsky and Aginsky Buryatsky, Taimyrsky, Evenkiysky) and the Far East (Chukotsky, Koryaksky).

Only in 9 Russian regions with a total population of 1,520 thousand people (1.06% of the country's population) TFR exceeds two children per woman, but nowhere does it reach three. Of the North Caucasian republics, such indicators are recorded by statistics bodies only in Chechnya (2.965). Even in regions with once high birth rates - Dagestan and Kalmykia - TFRs of more than 2,000 are now observed only in rural areas. Urban residents of these republics demonstrate almost the average Russian birth rate.

As a result, the most urbanized regions of the Center and North-West of the country, with a high proportion of the Russian population, have the lowest fertility rates. TFR within the boundaries of 1,129 - 1,200 children is observed in the Leningrad, Kaliningrad, Tula, Smolensk regions, Moscow and St. Petersburg.

The crude birth rate, as an indicator, is extremely dependent on the age structure of the population.

An increase in the number of births is facilitated by a favorable age structure of the population, that is, the more potential young parents, the more children will be born, respectively, and vice versa, if the proportion of elderly prevails in the age structure of the population and grows, then the birth rate will decline.

The age structure of the Russian population is aging; this process has been going on for almost a hundred years and is accompanied by a decrease in the proportion of children and an increase in the proportion of older people. Particularly noticeable changes have taken place in recent decades: the share of people of retirement age (men 60 years old and older, women 55 years old and older) increased from 11.7% in 1959 to 20.4% in 2002 and 22.2% in 2010, and the share of children under 16 years old decreased over the same periods from 30.0% to 18.0% and 16.2%.

Particularly noticeable changes have taken place in recent decades: the share of people of retirement age (men 60 years old and older, women 55 years old and older) increased from 11.7% in 1959 to 20.4% in 2002 and 22.2% in 2010, and the share of children under 16 years old decreased over the same periods from 30.0% to 18.0% and 16.2%.

The population of regions with an earlier onset of the demographic transition and with a long-term migration outflow has aged especially strongly. The maximum share of persons of retirement age (25-28% in 2010) is in the regions of the Center, the Pskov and Novgorod regions of the North-West and in St. Petersburg, as well as in the Nizhny Novgorod and Penza regions of the Volga Federal District adjacent to the Center. The population of Moscow and the Moscow Region also continues to age, but a strong influx of younger migrants has softened this trend, so the proportion of the elderly population is slightly higher than the national average (23.7%). The share of the population over the working age has increased in the "Russian" regions of the South (Rostov, Volgograd regions, Krasnodar Territory - 24%), as well as in Leningrad, Kirov, Ulyanovsk, Saratov and Kurgan regions (24-25%).

This indicator is minimal in the northern autonomous okrugs, from where those who have retired leave. At the beginning of the reforms, inflation "ate" the savings of northerners, and the outflow of pensioners decreased, which, along with the general trend of aging, led to a noticeable increase in the share of the population over working age in these regions (in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - from 2 to 8%, in Khanty -Mansiysk and Chukotka - from 3 to 11% for 1990-2010). In the republics with an incomplete demographic transition, the age structure of the population is still young, the proportion of the elderly is low (Chechnya, Ingushetia, Tyva, Dagestan - 8.0-10.7%). Accordingly, the share of children has a reverse geography: it is minimal in the most aged regions and in two federal cities (12-14%), and the largest share is in the republics with an incomplete demographic transition (Tyva, Ingushetia and Chechnya - 31-34%).

Indicators that do not depend on the age and sex structure of the population are migration and natural increase (decrease). In the 2000s. the contribution of migration has decreased compared to the peak period of migration inflow (mid-1990s), when migrations overlapped natural population decline in almost all regions south of Moscow. In 2000-2006. less than half (43%) of the regions had a migration increase in the population, while only in Moscow and the Moscow region it was significant, compensating for the natural decline. In the Leningrad Oblast, migrations made up for 2/3 of the natural decline, but in St. Petersburg their contribution was less noticeable. In half of Russia's regions (42 out of 83), natural decline was supplemented by migration outflow. Most of these regions are located in the European part of the country, in which the migration outflow was small, in contrast to the Far Eastern regions. Only in some republics of the North Caucasus, in the Altai Republic, as well as in two autonomous districts of the Tyumen region and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, a positive natural increase in 2001-2006. supplemented by migration. At the same time, in the republics of the North Caucasus (Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan), a positive migration increase was ensured by the return of refugees after the Chechen war. In the late 2000s, the situation looked better compared to the beginning and the middle of the decade. In 2007-2010. half of the regions had a migration increase compared to 43% in 2000-2006. In 7 regions it overlapped the reduced natural population decline (Moscow, Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Belgorod, Kaliningrad region and Novosibirsk region, Krasnodar region and the Republic of Tatarstan ), these are mainly developed regions with large agglomerations, the traditionally attractive south and the west neighboring the European Union. The group of regions with positive values of both natural and migration growth has changed: the south of the Tyumen region, the Tomsk, Astrakhan regions, and the Republic of Bashkortostan have been added to the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. In 2011, they were joined by Moscow, which for the first time in many years had not only migration, but also natural population growth.

Almost all the republics of the North Caucasus, except for Adygea and Ingushetia (data on Ingushetia are extremely inaccurate), became a zone of migration outflow, and in North Ossetia and Karachay-Cherkessia, the migration outflow exceeded natural population growth. The migration outflow from the regions of the Far East continued to decrease, in the Khabarovsk Territory it stopped, and in Yakutia it was fully compensated by the increased natural increase.

In connection with the analysis of these fertility indicators, I have identified three groups of regions:

I Demographically depressed regions of Russia - they are characterized by low mortality, deliberately limited fertility, orientation towards small families, and there is also a high intensity of migration processes, in such regions the natural population decline is 5% or more ?: Pskov region, Kirovskaya region, rep. Mordovia, Tula region, Tambov region,

II Demographically active regions of Russia are distinguished by a low mortality rate, a high deliberately unrestricted birth rate, a tradition of having many children, and a low intensity of migration processes from village to city and outside the republic.

III Regions with a transitional type of reproduction - this type of reproduction is characterized by low mortality, combined with a rapid decline in the birth rate, and an increasing migration mobility of the population. Another feature is the transition from large to medium-sized and one-child families, that is, these are regions with a rejuvenated age structure, in which there is a potential for natural population growth, the rate of natural decline here is 0-5%.

The population of the Russian Federation is 142 million people.(as of April 2009). Over the past 7 years, Russia has lost 2 million people and moved from the seventh to ninth in the world among the largest countries in terms of population.

The current demographic situation in Russia is characterized by population depopulation, a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, an aging population, a reduction in life expectancy, and problems in the employment of the population. The demographic factor influences the formation of labor potential, largely determines the development and distribution of the country's productive forces.

Population is a complex collection of people living within certain territories. It is characterized by a system of indicators such as the size and density of the population, its composition by sex, age, nationality, language and education.

The presence of a certain number of the population is one of the important conditions for the material and social life of society. Russia is a relatively sparsely populated country. The population density of the Russian Federation is 8.3 people / km 2, which is 14 times lower than in the European Union, with 79% of residents living in the European part of Russia.

Population dynamics

In 2009, for the first time in 17 years, since 1993, the population stopped declining in Russia, stopping at 141.9 million people. In the 1990s. this process could not be stopped even by large immigration, the natural population decline was enormous (0.96 million people in 2000 alone) due to a sharp rise in mortality (by one and a half times) and a greatly reduced birth rate (by one third). But outlined in the early years of the XXI century. a decrease in the size of natural population decline (to 0.249 million people in 2009 due to a partial improvement in mortality and fertility rates), coupled with the migration growth that began to grow again, made it possible in 2009 to maintain the population size with a possible prospect of its stabilization in the coming years (if judged by the average version of the forecast of the Federal State Statistics Service on the estimated population until 2030).

As you can see from the table. 12.1, in Russia the birth rate has not so much fallen (it is already close to the pre-reform level and is higher than in most European countries), but rather increased and the death rate continues to remain at a very high level. It is provoked by the high stresses that the population continues to experience. According to a survey of the adult population conducted by Rosstat in the summer of 2008 (i.e., even before the onset of the crisis), 72% of respondents experienced a feeling of great or very great anxiety about the uncertainty of their situation (although in 1998 there were 95% of them). 45% of the respondents assessed the level of their material well-being below the poverty line (when at best there is only enough money for basic food and clothing), 44% were afraid of losing their jobs, 27% felt a sense of loneliness.

Table 12.1. Demographic indicators of Russia

	2015, medium version of the forecast (in brackets - low and high versions of the forecast)	2025, medium forecast variant (in brackets - low and high forecast variants)
Population, million people (at the end of the year)	141,7 (139,6-142,6)	140.7 (132.6-145,5)
Natural population growth / decline. million people	0.348 (-0,688-0.211)	0,639 (-1,181-0.217)
Birth rate, per 1000 people	11,9 (10,9-12,5)
Mortality rate, per 1000 people	14,4 (15,8-14,0)	13,9 (17,0-13,2)
Migration growth, million people
Life expectancy at birth, years	69,8 (67,9-70,3)	72,4 (68,2-75,0)
Including: men	63,4 (61,8-64,4)	66,7 (62,3-70,7)
	75,7 (74,3-76,2)	77,9 (74,4-79,3)
Average annual population of working age, million people	82,7 (82,2-83,0)	76,7 (74,5-78,2)

Severe socio-economic stresses cause anomie, primarily among the most active part of the population - men (especially in the group from 30 to 50 years old). Anomia manifests itself, in particular, in neglect of one's own and someone else's life. As a result, the working-age population has a very high mortality rate from external causes and chronic diseases. So, more than 30% of mortality falls on external causes - these are accidental poisoning (mainly low-quality alcohol), suicide, murder, road traffic accidents, etc. The high mortality rate of the working-age population from cardiovascular diseases (it is 3-4 times higher than in European countries, and it accounts for 55% of the causes of death) is mainly due to the fact that the share of those who take care of their health (through diet, refusal from bad habits, medical prevention) does not exceed 25% of those surveyed by Rosstat.

The Concept of demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025, approved at the end of 2007 by the decree of the President of the Russian Federation, states that the goals of demographic policy are to stabilize the population by 2015 at the level of 142-143 million people and create conditions for its growth by 2025 up to 145 million people, as well as an increase in the quality of life and an increase in life expectancy by 2015 to 70 years, by 2025 - to 75 years. In fact, the Concept orients the country towards a high version of the Rosstat forecast on the estimated population size.

Population aging

If Russia at the end of the 19th century was a country with a young population - with a high proportion of children and a low proportion of elderly people, then after 1959 the proportion of elderly people in the total population began to increase. But when compared with other countries with low fertility, it turns out that the population of Russia is not the oldest. In 1990, Russia ranked 25th. This is not surprising, since Russia, firstly, is at the stage of the aging process, when the proportion of the population of middle ages practically does not change and aging occurs due to a decrease in the proportion of children, and secondly, due to low life expectancy, not all people live to old age.

The highest proportion of adolescent children is in the Republics of the North Caucasus, in the national formations of Siberia and the Far East.

The lowest proportion of the young population is in the North-West of the country.

Urbanization of the population

- an increase in the share of the urban population

At the moment, there are 1,096 cities in Russia, of which 11 cities are millionaires:

City millionaires Russia:

Moscow (10,500 thousand people)
Saint Petersburg (4 581)
Novosibirsk (1 398)
Ekaterinburg (1 335)
Nizhny Novgorod (1,280)
Samara (1 135)
Kazan (1 130)
Omsk (1 129)
Chelyabinsk (1,093)
Rosnov-na-Donu (1,049)
Ufa (1,032)

Quantity urban population in Russia is 73% .

79% of residents live in the European part of Russia.

Russians make up 80% of the country's population.

Cities that changed their name after the 90s:

Saint Petersburg (Leningrad)
Nizhny Novgorod (Gorky)
Yekaterinburg (Sverdlovsk)
Samara (Kuibyshev)

Factors affecting population size

Let's take a look at the factors affecting population size.

The dynamics of the population of any state consists of the natural and mechanical movement of the population.

Natural movement of the population

Natural movement of the population- This is a change in population under the influence of natural processes (birth and death rates), which determine the change of human generations.

Fertility

The birth rate in Russia is 12 ppm, which means 12 people per thousand people (data for 2009) (in 2002, 10 people per 1000 people.)

In recent years, the situation has somewhat improved, which is associated with the government's active demographic policy. However, the annual natural decline in the population remains quite high, and the migration increase in the population has significantly decreased.

Factors affecting fertility:

standards of living
national characteristics
woman's educational level
the state of the country's health care system

The highest birth rate is in the republics of the Volgo-Vyatka, North Caucasian and Ural economic regions.

The lowest birth rate is in the Northwest and Central economic regions.

Mortality

The mortality rate in Russia is 15 people per 1000 people. The mortality rate among Russian men and women of working age is significantly higher than the European average.

In Russia formed special mortality model:

A huge gap in the average life expectancy of a man and a woman (13 years). On average, men live up to 61 years old, women up to 74 years old.

Decreased life expectancy

Changes in the structure of causes of death:

Diseases of the digestive system
Cancer diseases
Territorial factor
Poisoning, AIDS, suicide

In Russia, the region with the highest mortality rate is the Pskov region.

Mechanical movement of the population

Mechanical movement of the population- movement of people for permanent or temporary residence due to natural, economic, political and other reasons.

Internal displacements do not change the population of the country, but change the population of certain regions. At the moment, internal migration covers 80% of the total migration turnover.

Internal migration happens:

permanent (moving to a permanent place of residence)
seasonal (moving depending on the season)
pendulum (regular, usually daily, movement of the population from one settlement to another to work or study and vice versa)
And also a rotational shift characteristic of the northern regions of western and eastern Siberia was formed.

External migration subdivided into:

Immigration (entry of citizens into the country)
Emigration (departure of citizens from their country to another country for permanent or long-term residence)

The population of the Earth has reached its critical level. Currently, our relatively small planet is home to 7.5 billion people, and every second there is a new life. However, such a huge population is unevenly distributed on the planet. Some countries have significantly higher birth rates than others. This is influenced primarily by factors such as genetics and the environment. Take, for example, all the countries of the African continent: these countries have a higher birth rate, therefore, more and more babies appear every year. At the same time, people inhabiting Europe or North America, for example, do not carry the genes responsible for the appearance of a large number of descendants, and, as a result, these territories are not so densely populated. Today we are going to talk about the top ten countries with the highest birth rates in the world. Needless to say, all of them (with the exception of one) are located in Africa. These data were obtained thanks to the latest population census. The birth rate is statistically classified for a thousand people. According to these data, the following countries are among the top ten with the largest number of children who are born annually.

10. Afghanistan

The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is located in the southeast of Asia. This densely populated state is estimated to have achieved a birth rate of 38 people per 1000 population. Afghanistan is currently home to 32 million people, but this number is expected to increase every year. The population is growing at a rate of 2.32% per year.

9. Angola

Angola is a South African state, the seventh largest in Africa. According to the latest figures, the population of Angola is 24.3 million. It is one of the largest states in Africa with a significant birth rate, which is approximately 39 newborns per 1000 population. Given the limited resources, such a rising birth rate could pose a threat to the country's economy.

8. Somalia

This African state is located in the Horn of Africa and has a population of over 10.8 million. The country is in eighth place thanks to the birth rate, which is 40 babies per 1000 population. Although this part of the region has a fairly high fertility rate, Somalia has a higher fertility rate than most countries. Natural population growth increases by 3% every year. Somalia is the sixth largest country with the highest fertility rates in the world.

7. Malawi

This country on the African continent, like many others, boasts a high birth rate. According to the latest data, the population of the country is 17,377,468. The birth rate has recently stood at nearly 42 babies per thousand of the population. Malawi is often referred to as the "warm heart of Africa" because of its hospitable population. The population of the country is completely dependent on agriculture, however, apparently, it is not developed enough to meet the growing demands of the population, which is constantly increasing.

6. Burundi

It is the second largest and one of the most populous states in Africa. Burundi is not only rich in fertile soils and developing agriculture, but also has higher fertility rates than most other countries. According to the latest data, more than 42 babies are born here per thousand of the population, which allowed the total population to reach 10.3 million. Due to a lack of resources, the population in Burundi suffers from many diseases, especially AIDS, so the average population growth is comparatively lower, despite the higher birth rate.

5. Burkina Faso

As you can see, this is another African country in the top ten with the highest birth rate. It is located in western Africa and occupies a significant area. The country is surrounded by the six most important African states and has a total population of 18.3 million. The birth rate is slightly lower compared to Burundi: 41 children per 1000 population. However, there are enough natural resources to meet the needs of a growing population.

4. Zambia

Zambia is not as densely populated as most African countries, but has high fertility rates compared to the area it covers. Zambia is the 70th most populous country in the world. Its population is 15.2 million. Statistics show that the annual growth rate is about 3.3%, and the birth rate is 42 people per 1000 population. Despite the high birth rate, the country can cope with the needs of the population, since it has a larger area and, as a result, more resources.

3. Uganda

Like many other countries in Africa, Uganda is a densely populated and fertile country. Given its very high growth rates, it should come as no surprise that it is the third largest country with the highest fertility rates not only in Africa, but globally. The total population of Uganda is 39,234,256 and the birth rate is about 44 children per thousand. The standard of living is quite low, as the government is unable to meet the needs of the entire population.

2. Mali

This country is located on the edge of the Sahara Desert in western Africa. The Republic of Mali is one of the most densely populated regions in Africa. With a fertility rate of 45 babies per thousand, the population of Mali is currently estimated at 15,786,227. Most of it lives in the countryside. Thus, most people are unable to achieve high living standards.

1. Niger

This country is located on the banks of the Niger River and is named after her. It is located in western Africa and covers vast territories. The birth rate here is very high and reaches 46 people per 1000 population. High birth rates and fertility rates are the main obstacles to achieving great economic success for the country, as they make it difficult to obtain income in accordance with needs.

Our country is one of the few countries in the world where there is a low birth rate. In combination with high mortality, it has a negative impact on demographic indicators. In recent years, the birth rate in Russia has fallen sharply. Forecasts so far are also disappointing.

General information about the population of Russia

According to Rosstat, the population of Russia in 2018 amounted to 146 million 880 thousand 432 people. This figure puts our country in ninth place in terms of population in the world. The average population density in our country is 8.58 people. by 1 km 2.

Most of the inhabitants are concentrated in the European territory of Russia (about 68%), although it is much smaller in area than in Asia. This is clearly seen in the distribution of population density: in the west of the country it is 27 people. per 1 km 2, and in the center and in the east - only 3 people. by 1 km 2. The highest density value is recorded in Moscow - over 4626 people / 1 km 2, and the minimum - in the Chukotka Okrug (below 0.07 people / 1 km 2).

The share of urban residents is 74.43 percent. There are 170 cities in Russia with a population of over 100,000. In 15 of them, the population exceeds 1 million.

The birth rate in Russia is quite low.

In total, over 200 different nationalities can be found in the country. They are also called ethnic groups. The share of Russians is about 81 percent. In second place are Tatars (3.9%), and in third place are Ukrainians. Approximately a percentage of the total population is accounted for by such nationalities as the Chuvash, Bashkirs, Chechens, and Armenians.

In Russia, the prevalence of the elderly population over those of working age is clearly expressed. The ratio of employed and retired people in our country is 2.4 / 1, while, for example, in the United States, it is 4.4 / 1, in China - 3.5 / 1, and in Uganda - 9/1. The closest figures are in Greece: 2.5 / 1.

Demographic characteristics of Russia

A gradual population decline is typical for Russia. In the 50s of the 20th century, natural growth was at the level of 15-20 people per 1000 inhabitants per year. There were many large families.

In the 60s, he was rapidly falling, and in the 70s and 80s it was only a little more than 5 people.

A new sharp drop occurred in the early 90s, as a result of which it became negative and was at the level of minus 5-6 people per thousand inhabitants per year. In the middle of the 2000s, the situation began to improve, and by 2013 the growth entered the positive zone. However, in recent years it has deteriorated again.

However, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia and mortality are not always interconnected. Thus, the fall in the birth rate in the 60s did not lead to a change in the dynamics of mortality. At the same time, in the first half of the 90s, mortality increased sharply, but somewhat later than the birth rate fell. In the 2000s, the birth rate began to rise, but the death rate continued to increase, but not at such a rapid pace. Since the mid-to-late 2000s, there has been an improvement in all indicators: the birth rate grew, and the death rate fell. In recent years, the statistics of fertility and mortality in Russia has the following features: there is a sharp decline in the birth rate, but the death rate continues to decrease.

In general, over the past 65 years, the birth rate has dropped by about half, and the death rate has hardly changed.

Birth rate in Russia in recent decades

If you do not take the last 2 years, the overall picture of the birth rate reflects a sharp decline in the 90s and a gradual rise since the mid-2000s. There is a clear positive relationship between rural and urban populations, but the swing is higher for rural areas. All this is shown by the graph of the birth rate in Russia by year.

The rapid decline in the indicator continued until 1993, the field of which slowed down sharply. The bottom was reached in 1999. Then a gradual increase in values began, which reached their maximum value in 2015. For the rural population, the maximum was passed a year earlier. Since there are more urban dwellers than rural dwellers, the average indicators more clearly reflect the dynamics of the urban population.

Dynamics of the population of Russia

The population is influenced not only by natural growth, but also by migration flows. Mostly migrants come from the countries of Central Asia. In recent years, refugees arriving from Ukraine have also affected the growth of the population of our country.

The total population of Russia increased until 1996, after which its steady decline began, which continued until 2010. Then the growth resumed again.

General demographic situation

The situation with demography in Russia, according to UN estimates, meets the criteria of a demographic crisis. The average fertility rate is 1.539. The mortality rate is traditionally high in Russia. A characteristic feature of our country is a sharp predominance of deaths from cardiovascular diseases over other causes, which is directly related to the destructive lifestyle of most Russians. Improper diet, physical inactivity and smoking are common causes of death. The extremely unsatisfactory state of medicine, and in some places the depressing environmental situation, also affects. Drunkenness is common in many regions.

In terms of life expectancy, Russia lags far behind all developed countries and even behind a number of developing countries.

Fertility in Russia by region

The distribution of this indicator on the map of our country is rather uneven. The highest values are recorded in the east of the North Caucasus and in some areas in the south of Siberia. Here the birth rate reaches 25-26.5 people per thousand inhabitants per year.

The lowest rates are observed in the central regions of the European part of Russia. This is especially pronounced in the southeast of the Central Federal District and in some regions of the Volga region. In the very center, the situation is somewhat better, which is obviously due to the influence of Moscow. In general, the worst birth rates are observed in approximately the same regions where the maximum death rate is recorded.

Fertility in Russia in recent years

Since 2016, the country has seen a sharp drop in the birth rate. The number of births this year was 10% less than in the same period last year, and in 2017, the birth rate in Russia showed the same decline in magnitude compared to 2016.

In the first 3 months of 2018, 391 thousand people were born in Russia, which is 21 thousand less than in January-March last year. However, in some regions, the birth rate rose slightly. These are the Altai Republic, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Kalmykia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

At the same time, mortality, on the contrary, decreased - by 2% over the year.

The reasons for the decline in fertility may be natural: the number of women of childbearing age is gradually decreasing, which is an echo of the decline of the 90s. Therefore, the decrease in the absolute birth rate is estimated at a lower value - 7.5%, and it may reflect the change in the socio-economic situation in the country in recent years.

Due to the low birth rate, the natural increase was also low. Although in 2017, 63.6 thousand people died less than a year earlier, the decrease in the number of births was 203 thousand people. At the same time, the total population increased slightly due to the increased migration flow from Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, from Ukraine. Thus, the birth rate in Russia in 2017 and 2018 was significantly reduced.

Forecast

According to the forecast of Rosstat, the demographic situation in the country will continue to deteriorate, and migration flows will no longer be able to cover the natural population decline. Hydrocarbon prices will obviously play an important role in the further demographic fate of the country, as before. Thus, the birth rate in Russia will be low.