Investment planning is at the heart of an enterprise's investment management. All investment decisions on the implementation of real investment projects and programs, the investment of funds in financial assets, as well as decisions on their financing are objectively interrelated, which means that they cannot be taken separately and planning tools must be used to link these decisions.
In the new economic conditions, the importance of investment planning is increasing. In the course of planning, a business direction is chosen, plans for financing, production, marketing policy, research, etc. are developed. All investment measures and their consequences must be calculated in advance in order to avoid negative financial consequences. Planning contributes to the setting of very specific goals, which serve as a way to motivate investment activities and allow you to establish criteria for assessing the results of the enterprise.
In the conditions of free enterprise, planning becomes a purely intrafirm event, and enterprises, to one degree or another, pay attention to both the analysis of activities and forecasting. However, a serious problem lies in the instability and unpredictability, abrupt changes and excessive politicization that are so characteristic of the Russian economy. These prerequisites significantly complicate accurate long-term forecasts and planning of activities.
Investment planning is the process of developing a system of plans, planned (normative) tasks and indicators that ensure the development of an enterprise using the necessary investment resources and contribute to improving the efficiency of its investment activities.
In the process of investment planning, there is a close relationship between the determination of the general strategic direction of the investment development of the enterprise and tactical planning. Investment planning at the enterprise consists of three most important stages:
forecasting investment activities;
current planning of investment activities;
operational planning of investment activities.
Strategic planning is most directly related to making investment decisions in order to carry out investment activities and, as an activity aimed at the vision of the future of the enterprise, must ensure the coordination of the long-term goals of the enterprise and the use of resources. The top management of the enterprise participates in strategic planning, which determines the development concept, the main and main goals of the enterprise, the development strategy for the forthcoming promising period (5-10 years).
Forecasting, as an element of planning, focuses on the most serious, strategically important, promising areas and forms of investment activity. Forecasting investment activity is associated with the development of a general investment strategy and investment policy of the enterprise.
The development of the company's investment strategy is based on the concept of strategic management, which has been widely implemented since the early 70s. last century in the United States and Western Europe. The basis of strategic management is strategic planning. Something similar was used and successfully developed in the USSR in the form of long-term planning. However, if traditional long-term planning is based on the concept of extrapolating the existing development trends, then strategic planning also takes into account the system of opportunities and dangers of enterprise development that can change the existing development trends, and also identifies the most likely events and results and determines the most optimal options for action.
The search for directions and acceptable conditions that ensure the successful implementation of strategic plans, the specification of specific goals and numerically measurable indicators that objectively reflect the expected results of activities, force the management and managers of the enterprise to carry out tactical planning. Its main goals are setting tasks for individual departments, delegating authority and developing current plans.
Current planning is carried out in conjunction with the planning process of the operational and financial activities of the enterprise, is calculated, as a rule, for a period of up to one year and allows:
determine all forms of investment activities of the enterprise and the sources of its financing;
to form the structure of income and expenses of the enterprise;
ensure the financial stability and constant solvency of the enterprise;
predetermine the growth and structure of the company's assets at the end of the planning period.
The company is developing several types of current investment plans. The basis is a plan for the total volume of investment activities in the context of individual forms of real and financial investment. The main goal of this plan is to ensure a simple and expanded reproduction of retired fixed assets and intangible assets, as well as the growth of the company's financial assets.
^ The plan of income and expenses for investment activities reflects all the costs associated with real investments and an increase in the volume of long-term financial investments. This plan determines the volume of needs in financial resources for the implementation of the planned investment projects and programs, as well as the possible receipt of these resources in the process of investment activities.
The plan for the receipt and expenditure of funds in the process of carrying out investment activities characterizes the results of forecasting cash flows from investment activities and provides a clear relationship between the indicators of cash inflows, their spending in the planning period and the amount of net cash flow for investment activities at the end of the period. The purpose of developing a plan is to ensure the financial stability and solvency of the enterprise throughout the planning period.
The balance sheet reflects the results of forecasting the composition of assets and the structure of the use of the company's financial resources. It determines the necessary increase in certain types of assets, ensures their internal balance and contributes to the formation of an optimal capital structure, which ensures sufficient financial stability of the enterprise. When developing a balance sheet, an enlarged scheme of the balance sheet items of the enterprise is used.
Operational planning of investment activities is considered as a set of measures for the efficient allocation of financial resources among alternative investment options.
The main tasks of operational planning are in the distribution and efficient allocation of financial resources in order to implement the planned strategy, in the development of coordinated and coordinated budgets, as well as control over the quality of their execution. In this case, the planning horizon does not exceed 12 months.
In the process of operational planning, the investment budget of the enterprise is developed. It reflects the volume and composition of all costs associated with investment activities, provides coverage of these costs by investment resources from various sources and determines the amount of financing required for the implementation of specific forms and options for investment in the enterprise. The investment budget of the enterprise always details the indicators of the current investment plans and is developed within one calendar year with a breakdown by months and (or) quarters.
An investment budget should not be confused with an investment project budget. The budget of an investment project is a financial plan (estimate), which details all inflows and outflows of funds throughout the entire life cycle of the investment project. A special place in the content of the budget is occupied by information on the initial investment in the project.
The enterprise can develop different budgets. Their types are determined by various classification features (Table 3).
By types of investment activities, enterprises are: budgets of real and financial investment, budgets of investment activities in general.
Investment planning is one of the main tasks of financial planning, which must ensure the coordination of the long-term goals of the enterprise and the use of resources directed to achieve the goals. The investment activity of an enterprise is associated with the costs that the enterprise must incur at a given point in time for a positive effect in the future.
The investment activity of the enterprise can be divided into two main types: internal and external. Internal activities include: expansion of production capacity, technical re-equipment and reconstruction of the enterprise, an increase in the volume of production, the creation of new types of products. The external direction of the investment activity of the enterprise involves the acquisition of companies and the purchase of securities.
Investment planning is one of the most difficult areas of financial planning, as there are different types of investments and the cost of investment projects; a plurality of alternative options for investment projects; limited resources; huge risk associated with making investment decisions, etc.
Investment planning stages:
1. Determination of the primary goals of investment. The main thing at this stage is to determine the goal, resource requirements, areas of activity, the expected benefits from this activity, the prerequisites for the activity, the required time for the implementation of the investment, the division of the entire investment period into separate stages.
2. Identification of bottlenecks and risk assessment. It assumes the joint activity of the functioning of groups to identify possible difficulties in investment activities with risk assessment. Investment planning begins with an analysis of the problematic factor in the enterprise strategy, that "bottleneck" that does not allow the implementation of the strategy. It is considered "narrow" for a number of reasons: first, because sometimes it cannot be controlled by the enterprise itself; secondly, because other elements of the strategy depend on it. There are the following types of risks: technical and technological risks, economic risk, political risk, social risks; environmental and legal risks. Risks can also be classified according to their sources of occurrence: systematic, arising for all participants in investment activities and non-systematic risks arising for a specific investment object or for the activities of a specific investor.
3. Development of a resource provision strategy. Selection of funding sources. Financing can be carried out at the expense of internal sources (depreciation charges, capitalization of dividends, use of accumulated retained earnings, sale, lease and other similar sources available at the disposal of external sources (issue of shares of various types and forms, issue of bonds and other valuable securities, raising loans and borrowings and centralized sources of financing.) In the modern economy, there are many different opportunities for effective capital investment. However, most Russian enterprises have a significant need for investments due to the limited investment resources. Investment resources are a specific commodity for the use of which the investor charges a fee, the minimum amount of which is equal to the income from keeping investments in a deposit account with a bank.
4. Development of the investment direction consists in the development of a general strategy of activity; development and justification of the organizational and information structure.
5. Development of procedures for the administration of the implementation and its policy consists in the development of procedures for reporting on the progress of the tasks; development of procedures for documenting and monitoring information support; defining the policy of external relations; training of personnel and financial procedures; development of basic procedures for identifying and resolving conflicts.
The investment plan primarily depends on the planned production program of the enterprise, on the scientific, technical and investment policy of the enterprise.
Thus, the investment plan should follow from the company's strategy for the future, from the scientific, technical and investment policy at the enterprise (Fig. 1).
Rice. 1 ... The relationship of the enterprise strategy with the investment plan
In modern conditions, the methodology for planning investments in an enterprise should be significantly changed for the following reasons. First, in connection with the transition to market relations. And, secondly, enterprises now have to plan not only capital investments, real investments, but also financial (portfolio) investments. Investment planning in an enterprise is a very important and complex process. Its complexity lies in the fact that it is necessary to take into account many factors, including unforeseen ones, as well as the degree of investment risk.
The importance lies in the fact that by planning an investment, this lays the foundation for his work for the future. If the investment plan is well planned and organized, the enterprise will work well, badly - in the future it may become bankrupt. In general, an investment plan for an enterprise should consist of two sections: a portfolio investment plan and a real investment plan.
The following rules are known that should be followed when planning investments:
Rule 1. The plan of investments in the enterprise should follow from the long-term strategy of its development.
Rule 2. It makes sense to invest in production, in securities only if the company gets more profit than from keeping money in a bank.
Rule 3. It makes sense to invest only in the most profitable, taking into account the time factor, projects.
Rule 4. It makes sense to invest only if the return on investment exceeds the rate of inflation.
Rule 5. Make final investment decisions only if the greatest economic benefit with the lowest risk is provided.
Most of these rules support the idea that the business case for investment is imperative. To do this, the following criteria are compared: the interest rate of a bank loan, inflation index, dividend rate, profitability index, internal rate of return, net present value, etc. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the probability of an event and the mathematical expectation.
Planning an investment in an enterprise is a very important and complex process. The complexity of this process lies in the fact that it is necessary to take into account many factors, including unforeseen ones, as well as the degree of investment risk.
The importance of this process for the enterprise lies in the fact that by planning investments, it lays the foundations for its work in the future. If the investment plan is well planned and implemented, then the enterprise will work successfully, badly - in the future it may become bankrupt.
In general investment plan the enterprise consists of two sections: a portfolio investment plan and a real investment plan (capital investment):
portfolio investment plan- is a plan for the acquisition and sale of shares, bonds and other securities by the enterprise;
real investment plan- This is a plan of investments for the production and non-production development of the enterprise.
However, in practice, an investment plan may consist of one section.
Investment planning in the enterprise should be preceded by a deep analysis of the economic justification of investment.
Example. The enterprise has free funds in the amount of 2 million rubles; it can use them for the following purposes: put in a commercial bank on a deposit at 40% per annum (probability - 0.6); purchase shares and receive an annual dividend of 400 thousand rubles. (probability -0.5); to implement a project for the reconstruction and technical re-equipment of production, which will make it possible to receive annually 500 thousand rubles. net profit (probability - 0.9). The inflation rate is 25% per annum. It is required to determine for what purposes the available free funds in the enterprise should be used in the first place and why.
Solution.
For clarity, all data and evaluation criteria are summarized in table. 8.4.
Table 8.4
|
Direction of use of investments |
Criterion (deposit rate, dividend rate, profitability),% |
Annual profit, thousand rubles |
Probability of the event, fractions of units |
Mathematical expectation, thousand rubles |
|
|
Put on a deposit in a commercial bank |
|||||
|
Buy shares |
|||||
|
Implement a project for the reconstruction and technical re-equipment of production |
Based on these data, it follows that the most preferable is the first option, in which the largest value of the mathematical expectation (480 thousand rubles). In second place in terms of profitability is the project for the reconstruction and technical re-equipment of production (mathematical expectation - 450 thousand rubles). The most disadvantageous option is the second, in which the dividend rate (20%) does not cover the inflation rate (25%).
In general terms, the following rules can be formulated, which must be taken into account when planning investments.
Invest funds has the meaning:
If the company will benefit more than from keeping money in a bank;
If the return on investment exceeds the rate of inflation;
The most profitable, discounted, projects;
Providing the greatest economic benefit with the least risk.
If, on the basis of the analysis, we came to the conclusion that it is necessary to invest free funds in the development of our own enterprise, then in this case a capital investment plan is being developed.
Capital construction plan consists of the following sections:
1. Planned assignment for the commissioning of production facilities and fixed assets.
2. The volume of capital investments and their structure.
3. Title lists of buildings and objects.
4. Plan of design and survey work.
5. The program of construction and installation works.
6. Economic efficiency of capital investments.
The most important indicators of the capital construction plan are: commissioning of production facilities and fixed assets, estimated cost, project profitability, construction period and payback period.
The investment plan at the enterprise should be closely linked with the chosen strategy for the development of the enterprise for the future.
The key to successful investment management is the planning of the company's investment.
Any organization, whether it is the implementation of a real investment project, the launch of new capacities or new production, investments in financial assets, or only the consideration and analysis of such decisions, all these aspects of activities are directly interconnected and subject to investment planning.
Today the importance and role of investment planning is increasing. This happens due to the fact that the result of investment planning is the development and formulation of specific tasks and benchmarks for the investment activities of the enterprise, which in turn makes it possible to determine the ways to achieve these goals and contributes to the pain of an easy and accurate assessment of the investment activities of the enterprise as a whole.
Investment planning determines the direction of the organization's development, identifies sources of funding, concretizes marketing policy, selects a list of necessary studies to improve production, etc.
Investment planning is a mechanism that allows an enterprise to develop and improve the efficiency of its own investment activities by developing a system of plans and methods for making investments and highlighting the most significant indicators and control over them.
Investment planning and its stages
- investment forecasting
- ongoing investment planning
- operational planning of investments.
Forecasting, as part of investment planning, is a reflection of the organization's strategy. It reflects the most promising and strategically important areas of investment activities for the enterprise.
Ongoing investment planning as part of investment planning, is inextricably linked with the operational and financial activities of the organization and identifies:
- forms of investment activity and sources of their financing
- structures the income and expenses of the enterprise
- contributes to the financial stability and solvency of the enterprise
- allows you to estimate the planned income and asset growth.
Operational investment planning, as part of investment planning, is aimed at the most profitable and successful placement of investment resources in order to achieve the goals and objectives that are spelled out in the investment strategy of the enterprise.
Investment planning consists of two main parts: strategic and tactical planning.
Project managers and organizations, leading managers and specialists take part in strategic planning. The result of strategic planning is the drawing up of a concept for the development of the enterprise and the definition of its priority tasks.
Tactical planning is aimed at finding methods, methods and directions for carrying out investment activities. The main function of tactical planning is the distribution of powers, the development of plans and the setting of specific tasks for production units in order to implement and implement the strategic goals of the enterprise.
As you know, investment planning is the process of developing a system of plans and planned (normative) indicators to ensure the development of an enterprise with the necessary investment resources and increase the efficiency of its investment activities in the coming period. Investment planning at an enterprise (or in-house investment planning) is based on the use of its three main systems:
1) forecasting investment activities;
2) current planning of investment activities; 3) operational planning of investment activities.
Each of these investment planning systems has a specific period and its own forms of implementation of its results.
All investment planning systems are interconnected and implemented in a certain sequence. The initial initial stage of planning is forecasting the main directions and target parameters of investment activity by developing a general investment strategy of the enterprise, which is designed to determine the tasks and parameters of the current investment planning. In turn, the current investment planning creates the basis for the development and communication to the direct executors of operational budgets for all the main aspects of the investment activity of the enterprise.
The investment forecasting system is the most complex among the investment planning systems under consideration and requires highly qualified performers for its implementation. At each specific enterprise, the investment forecasting system is based on a specific investment ideology.
The investment ideology of an enterprise characterizes the system of fundamental principles for the implementation of investment activities of a particular enterprise, determined by its "mission" and the mentality of the investment behavior of its founders and managers.
Forecasting investment activity, carried out taking into account the investment ideology, is aimed primarily at developing the investment strategy of the enterprise and investment policy on the main aspects of the implementation of its investment activities.
The system of current planning of investment activities is based on the developed investment strategy and investment policy for certain aspects of investment activities. This planning consists in the development of specific types of current plans, which make it possible to determine for the coming period all forms of investment activities of the enterprise and the sources of its financing, to form the structure of its income and costs, to ensure the financial stability and constant solvency of the enterprise in the process of its investment activities, to predetermine the growth and structure its assets at the end of the planning period.
The current plans for investment activities are being developed for the coming year with a breakdown by quarters.
The initial prerequisites for the development of current investment plans of the enterprise are:
Investment strategy of the enterprise and target strategic standards for the main areas of investment activity for the coming period;
Investment policy on certain aspects of the investment activity of the enterprise;
Planned volumes of production and sales of products and other economic indicators for the newly introduced operational non-current and circulating assets of the enterprise;
The system of norms and standards for the costs of individual investment resources developed at the enterprise;
The current system of tax rates;
The current system of depreciation rates;
Average rates of credit and deposit interest in the financial market;
Investment analysis results for the previous period.
Since a number of initial prerequisites for the development of current plans are probabilistic in nature and the spread of their parameters in the context of the current economic instability of the country is quite high, it is advisable to develop the current investment plans of the enterprise in terms of the main indicators in several versions - "optimistic", "realistic", "pessimistic".
Types of current investment plans of the enterprise:
1.planned volume of investment activity in the context of individual forms of real and financial investment
2. plan of income and expenses for investment activities
3. plan for the receipt and expenditure of funds in the process of investment activities
4. balance plan.
The planned volume of investment activity in the context of individual forms of real and financial investment forms the basis of current investment planning.
The purpose of developing this plan is to determine the need for the total volume of real and financial investment of the enterprise in the context of its specific forms for the coming period. In this regard, a simple and expanded reproduction of non-current operating assets, as well as an increase in the company's financial assets, should be ensured.
The plan of income and expenses for investment activities reflects the main aspects of the financial support of these activities. The purpose of developing this plan is to determine the volume of needs for financial resources for the implementation of the planned investment programs, as well as the possible receipts of these resources in the process of carrying out investment activities (income from the sale of retired property in the process of its replacement, investment profit, etc.). This plan reflects all the costs associated with making real investments in the coming period, as well as an increase in the volume of long-term financial investments (the increase in the volume of short-term financial investments is carried out at the expense of the balance of temporarily free cash assets in the company's working capital).
The plan for the receipt and expenditure of funds in the process of investment activities is intended to reflect the results of forecasting the enterprise's cash flows for this type of its economic activity. The purpose of developing this plan is to ensure continuous financial stability and solvency of the enterprise at all stages of the planning period. In this plan, a clear relationship should be provided for the indicators of cash inflow for investment activities in the planning period, their spending and the amount of net cash flow for these activities at the end of the period.
The balance sheet reflects the results of forecasting the composition of assets and the structure of the used financial assets of the enterprise at the end of the planning period. The purpose of developing a balance sheet is to determine the necessary increase in certain types of assets with ensuring their internal balance, as well as the formation of an optimal capital structure that ensures sufficient financial stability of the enterprise in the coming period.
When developing a balance sheet, an enlarged diagram of the balance sheet items of an enterprise is used, reflecting the requirements of its construction in relation to the specifics of a specific organizational and legal form of activity (limited liability company; joint stock company, etc.).
The process of current investment planning is carried out at the enterprise in close connection with the planning process of its operating (production and commercial) and financial activities.
The system of operational planning of investment activities consists in the development of a set of short-term planning tasks for the investment support of the main directions of development of the economic activity of the enterprise. The main form of such a planned investment target is the budget.
A budget is a short-term operational plan, usually developed within up to one year (usually within the next quarter or month), reflecting the costs and receipts of investment funds in the implementation of specific forms of investment activity. It details the indicators of the current investment plans and is the main planning document communicated to the "investment centers" of all types.
The development of planned budgets at the enterprise is characterized by the term "budgeting" and is aimed at solving two main tasks:
a) determination of the volume and composition of expenses associated with the investment activities of individual structural units and divisions of the enterprise;
b) ensuring that these costs are covered by investment resources from various sources. The budgeting process is continuous or rolling.
Based on the planned indicators established for the year in the course of the current investment planning, a system of quarterly budgets (for the coming quarter) is developed in advance (before the onset of the planning period), and within the framework of quarterly budgets, a system of monthly budgets (for each forthcoming month). The process of such sliding budgeting guarantees the continuity of the operation of the operational planning system for the investment activities of the enterprise, lays a solid foundation for the implementation of continuous monitoring of the results of this activity.
Applied in the process of operational investment planning, budgets are classified according to a number of characteristics.
The use of the considered systems and methods of investment planning makes it possible to increase the efficiency of the investment activity of an enterprise and ensure its purposefulness.